11/08/26
EIA raises renewable diesel output view
Houston, 11 August (Argus) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
today raised its projections for renewable diesel production and net exports
while trimming domestic demand expectations. EIA raised its forecast for
renewable diesel production in 2026 to 241,000 b/d, the agency said Tuesday in
its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook , up by 5,000 b/d from July's forecast.
The production outlook for next year was unchanged at 294,000 b/d. The outlook
for domestic renewable diesel demand this year was trimmed by 9,000 b/d to
208,000 b/d, while the 2027 forecast was reduced by 4,000 b/d to 291,000 b/d.
EIA increased its expectation for net renewable diesel exports this year to
30,000 b/d, up by 13,000 b/d from July's projection and equal to the level
recorded in 2025. Next year, renewable diesel imports and exports are expected
to be balanced, compared with 5,000 b/d in net imports projected last month. US
biodiesel domestic demand is expected to average 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 115,000
b/d in 2027. The 2026 forecast was cut by 1,000 b/d from EIA's July outlook,
while the 2027 outlook was unchanged. Biodiesel output is expected to reach
101,000 b/d in 2026 and 109,000 b/d in 2027, both unchanged from the previous
report. Biodiesel imports and exports in 2026 are also expected to be balanced,
a decrease of 1,000 b/d in net imports from last month's projection. The agency
expects 6,000 b/d of net biodiesel imports in 2027, unchanged from the previous
report. EIA's forecast for US production and consumption of "other biofuels" —
including sustainable aviation fuel — were unchanged from last month's outlook
at 42,000 b/d this year and 53,000 b/d next year. The US Department of
Agriculture (USDA) maintained its forecast for US soybean oil use for biofuels
in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, holding at
8.07mn metric tonnes for the 2026–27 marketing year. US soybean crush margins
have remained volatile since the start of July, peaking at $3.268/bushel (bu) on
22 July before soybean oil futures prices dove lower. Crush margins were last
calculated at $2.745/bu on 10 August. Current-year D4 Renewable Identification
Number (RIN) credits were last assessed at 221.5¢/lb on 10 August, down
substantially from an all-time high of 255.875¢/RIN reached on 7 July, lowering
production margins for US biofuel producers. The US requires refiners to blend
various types of biofuels each year or cover their obligations by purchasing RIN
credits from others that do. By Thompson Corpus Send comments and request more
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