19/12/25
Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank
Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank
Dalby, 19 December (Argus) — Global beef production will decline in 2026,
marking the first contraction in animal protein output in six years, according
to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 by Netherlands-based investment bank
Rabobank. Herd rebuilding in North America and Brazil, combined with structural
adjustments in China, will tighten supply and keep prices firm across major
markets, according to the report. North America Beef cattle numbers in the US
and Canada fell for six straight years in 2020-25, but stronger profitability is
slowing liquidation and supporting herd rebuilding. US beef cow slaughter
dropped by 19pc on the year in 2025, with the culling rate projected at 8.5pc
for 2026, below the long-term average. Canada is also stabilising its herd,
while Mexico faces supply constraints from disease-related import restrictions.
Per capita beef supplies will likely fall by 6pc from 2020 highs, maintaining
upward pressure on prices. Feeder cattle prices rose by 26pc in the US and 28pc
in Canada in 2025, with further increases likely in 2026, according to Rabobank.
North American imports have narrowed the supply gap, but trade tensions may cap
volumes. Exports from the region will likely decline because domestic demand
remains strong. Brazil and Argentina Brazilian beef production will likely fall
by 5-6pc in 2026 to 10.5mn t because producers may retain cattle to rebuild
herds. But exports will likely hit a record 4.4mn t because of strong global
demand, a weak Brazilian real and reduced competition from other suppliers,
despite lower output. China is set to remain Brazil's largest buyer, while trade
diversification targets Mexico and other markets. Domestic consumption will
likely drop by up to 9pc because high prices are pushing consumers toward
cheaper proteins. Argentina faces similar dynamics. Production is expected to
hold steady at 3.23mn t, but exports will likely reach the second-highest level
on record at 880,000t, because of competitive pricing and strong demand from
China, the US and EU. Local consumption will likely fall by 4pc on the back of
an accelerating shift to poultry and pork. China China's beef production rose in
early 2025 because of herd liquidation but will likely decline slightly in 2026
due to shrinking inventories. Beef prices will rise because of tighter supply,
while the country's imports may ease by 2-3pc because of global supply
constraints and higher prices. Imports account for 30pc of China's total supply.
Meanwhile, retail demand remains resilient, with growth in online channels, but
food service recovery will be modest. Australia and New Zealand Australian beef
production will remain near record highs at 2.85mn t in 2026, supported by large
cattle inventories and strong export demand from the US, Japan, South Korea and
China. Prices are expected to hold firm, with the National Young Cattle
Indicator forecast at A$4.30-4.80/kg ($2.84-3.17/kg). New Zealand beef output
will recover gradually. The cattle population is projected to rise by 3pc and
export prices are forecast to stay 15pc above the five-year average in 2026. By
Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at
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