US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep

Spanish Market: Metals, Natural gas
04/10/24

The US added more jobs than expected in September and the unemployment rate ticked down, signs the labor market is strengthening heading into the US presidential election.

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 workers last month, and the jobless rate fell to 4.1pc, the Labor Department reported Friday. Gains in August were revised up by 17,000 to 159,000 and those in July were revised up by 55,000 to 144,000.

September's job gains were much higher than the 140,000 estimated by economists in a Trading Economics survey.

Job gains blew past expectations in the same month the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020, citing concerns that a weakening labor market might pull down the overall economy. Odds of a quarter point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in November rose to 91pc today from about 68pc Thursday, according to fed funds futures markets, while odds of a half-point cut fell to 9pc. The Fed last month penciled in 50 basis points of cuts in the remainder of this year.

Job gains were higher than the average monthly gains of 203,000 over the prior 12 months, the Labor Department reported.

Employment continued to move higher in food services and drinking establishments, health care, government, social assistance and construction. The labor market was little affected by Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana on 11 September, during the reference periods for the surveys that contribute to the report.

Gains in restaurants and drinking places rose by 69,000 jobs, much higher than the average 14,000 added over the prior 12 months. Health care added 45,000 jobs, below the monthly average of 57,000. Government added 31,000 compared with monthly averages of 45,000. Social assistance added 27,000.

Construction added 25,000, near the monthly average. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs, most of them in the auto industry.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.2pc in August, still higher than the five-decade low of 3.4pc posted in early 2023.

Average hourly earnings rose by 4pc in the 12 months through September, up from 3.8pc through August.

By Bob Willis

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23/04/25

Indonesia stands committed to Ni controls: Ni Indonesia

London, 23 April (Argus) — Indonesia remains committed to controlling nickel exports as well as increasing downstream value, the country's environment minister told delegates at the first Argus Nickel Indonesia conference today. Cecep Mochammad Yasin, director of mineral business development at the energy and mineral resources ministry, said the rapid growth of Indonesian nickel output made it necessary to adjust royalty rates and maintain output controls to preserve "invaluable nickel reserves" and stabilise prices on the international market. The Indonesian government in March adopted Regulation 19 of 2025, increasing royalty rates for nickel ore to 14-19pc, up from a previous flat rate of 10pc, while Ferronickel and NPI royalty rates were introduced at 5-7pc and nickel matte at 3.5-5.5pc. The new rates will take effect from the end of April. "This is a critical step towards ensuring that our natural resources give optimum benefits to all Indonesians by gradually increasing royalty rates," Cecep said. Preserving Indonesia's mineral wealth Cecep emphasised his country's commitment to preserving nickel reserves, saying Indonesia needed to maintain production controls to increase the longevity of critical minerals. "We have a responsibility to manage this resource to ensure availability for future generations," he said. "Massive exploitation of natural resources without regard for conservation will result in resource depletion. We must learn from other countries' experiences to make sure our nickel reserves are not depleted too quickly." Indonesia earlier this year set a production quota for nickel ore in 2025 at around 200mn t, a reduction from 2024's estimated production of 215mn t. The government had previously approved 240mn t of production out to 2026, but a reduction was made in January owing to a nickel supply glut in the international market. Since then, nickel prices have continued to fall, reaching their lowest since early 2020 at $14,000-14,030/t on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on 9 April after US tariffs were announced. Prices have since bounced back to about $15,000/t on continued trade negotiations between the US and other economic partners. The minister also hinted at working with other nickel producing countries "to create a shared understanding of global production management", which he said would be a "key step" towards international price stability. Government officials warned delegates that over the coming years, the quality of nickel grades will decline, as some of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. "Resource quality will gradually decline," Indonesia's National Economic Council executive director Tubugas Nugraha said. "Over the next 2-3 years this trend will be balanced by increased production, but in the longer term the nickel content, especially in our NPI products will face structural challenges." Increasing downstream ambitions Indonesia has ambitions to add further value downstream in the supply chain, including in stainless steel and battery production, delegates heard. "By promoting the growth of domestic nickel processing and refining industries, we can increase added value and reduce reliance on exports," Tabagus told delegates. "Downstreaming can also absorb part of the supply and produce consistent demand." Tubagus added that downstreaming is part of Indonesia's 2045 plan for economic development, moving from extracting raw ore to producing value-added materials. He added that the country's ambition was to become a "global hub" for stainless steel, battery raw materials and electric vehicle (EV) components. Under the Indonesia Emas 2045 plan, the country plans to invest over $600bn into commodity linked industries in the coming decades, in order to escape what Indonesian national development planning ministry energy resources director Nizhar Marizi called its own "middle-income trap". Tax revenues will be key to this plan, as a report by the World Bank in December 2024 highlighted, saying Indonesia would need "structural reforms" to increase tax receipts and fund its ambitions. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cyclone, outages cut Australia’s Woodside output in 1Q

23/04/25

Cyclone, outages cut Australia’s Woodside output in 1Q

Sydney, 23 April (Argus) — Australian independent Woodside Energy's LNG output dropped in January-March, because of Cyclone Zelia and the retirement of its North West Shelf's (NWS) 2.5mn t/yr train 2 in late 2024. Woodside's overall LNG production fell by 14pc from 231,200 b/d in October-December to 213,900 b/d in January-March (see table) . LNG production at Woodside's 14.4mn t/yr NWS project fell by 22pc on the year to near a three-year low of 71,100 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in January-March, as category 5 storm Cyclone Zelia hit the WA coastline in early February. Woodside's chief officer Meg O'Neil is calling for certainty on the continuation of operations at NWS beyond 2030 , as the firm has yet to receive federal consent, after receiving state government approval late last year. The decision lies with whomever forms government following the federal election on 5 May. Woodside's 4.9mn t/yr Pluto LNG project offshore Western Australia's production dropped by 11pc on the year to 115,000 b/d in the January-March quarter, because of three unplanned outages, which caused days-long shutdowns. This comes after a previous unplanned outage in November 2024 caused by a faulty control system , which halted LNG production for seven days. The cause of the outage is under investigation and the company said it will continue to monitor the facility to minimise the risk of future unplanned outages. Woodside's 13pc interest in Wheatstone remained steady, with production up by 3pc on the year to 26,900 b/d in January-March, from 26,200 b/d in the same period a year earlier. By Grace Dudley Woodside LNG production (mn boe) NWS Pluto Wheatstone* Total Jan-Mar '25 6.4 10.4 2.4 19.2 Oct-Dec '24 7.1 11.2 2.5 20.8 Jan-Mar '24 8.2 11.8 2.4 22.3 2024 29.4 46.7 9.3 85.5 2023 32.8 45.6 10.2 88.6 y-o-y % ± -21.9 -11.3 2.8 -7.5 q-o-q % ± -10.1 -7.1 -1.5 -13.7 *Woodside controls a 13pc interest in Wheatstone LNG Source: Woodside Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

FERC commissioner Phillips resigns from agency

22/04/25

FERC commissioner Phillips resigns from agency

Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Democratic commissioner Willie Phillips has resigned from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) after serving more than three years at an agency responsible for permitting natural gas infrastructure and regulating wholesale power markets. Phillips' departure will clear the way for President Donald Trump to nominate a replacement at FERC, who once confirmed by the US Senate would provide Republicans a 3-2 majority for the first time since 2021. Phillips, whose term was not set to expire until June 2026, had a reputation for negotiating bipartisan deals on contentious orders involving pipelines and power market issues in the two years he served as FERC's chairman under former president Joe Biden. Phillips has yet to release a statement explaining his abrupt resignation. But Trump has already fired Democratic commissioners and board members at other agencies that, like FERC, are structured as independent from the White House. Two of the fired Democrats, who were serving at the US Federal Trade Commission, have filed a lawsuit that argues their removal was unlawful under a 1935 decision by the US Supreme Court. The White House did not respond to a question on whether it had pressured Phillips to resign. FERC chairman Mark Christie, a Republican, offered praise for Phillips as a "dedicated and selfless public servant" who sought to "find common ground and get things done to serve the public interest". Christie for months has been downplaying the threats to FERC's independence caused by Trump's executive order that asserts sweeping control over FERC's agenda. Energy companies have come to depend on FERC in serving as independent arbiter in disputes over pipeline tariffs and electricity markets, without the consideration of political preferences of the White House. Former FERC chairman Neil Chatterjee, a Republican who served in Trump's first term, said in a social media post it was "disappointing" to see Phillips pushed out after he "played it straight" in his work at the agency. As chairman, Phillips was able to authorize a "massive LNG project" — the 28mn t/yr CP2 project — at a time when Biden had sought to pause LNG licensing, Chatterjee said. Separately, Paul Atkins was sworn in as the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on 21 April, after the US Senate voted 52-44 earlier this month in favor of his confirmation. Atkins was previously the chief executive of financial consulting firm Patomak Global Partners and served as an SEC commissioner from 2002-08. Republicans will now have a 3-1 majority at the SEC. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Halliburton working to mitigate tariff impact: Update

22/04/25

Halliburton working to mitigate tariff impact: Update

Adds details from call. New York, 22 April (Argus) — Oilfield services giant Halliburton said it is working to mitigate the impact of tariffs, but still expects to take a 2-3¢/share hit on its second quarter profits. About 60pc of the tariff impact will fall on Halliburton's completions and productions unit, which includes its hydraulic fracturing business, while the rest will affect the drilling and evaluation operation. The company said it has a well-diversified supply chain and can pull other levels to mitigate the effect of tariffs. "We need a bit more clarity and stability in the structure of tariffs so that we can really understand what levers we can pull and then what the overall outcome is going to be," chief financial officer Eric Carre told analysts today after Halliburton posted first quarter results. Quizzed about the market turmoil resulting from US president Donald Trump's growing trade wars, the company said customers are still digesting how their operations will be affected. "From our perspective anyway, the market's not building new equipment," said chief executive officer Jeff Miller, helping to avoid the risk of an oversupply seen in past cycles. Moreover, US upstream companies are more "biased to working through things" than in the past, he added, echoing comments from Liberty Energy last week that the industry is better placed to withstand a downturn than in the recent past given a focus on capital restraint rather than growth at any cost. Halliburton recognized there is more uncertainty now than there was three months ago. However, its international business reported a "solid start" to 2025, with significant contract awards. Even as the market slows in North America, Halliburton aims to outperform rivals by driving technology gains and improving the quality of its services. "Many of our customers are in the midst of evaluating their activity scenarios and plans for 2025," said Miller. "Activity reductions could mean higher than normal white space for committed fleets, and in some cases, the retirement or export of fleets to international markets." International revenue this year is expected to be flat to slightly down compared with 2024, given increased risks to the outlook. Miller struck an upbeat tone in discussing the industry's long-term prospects, despite tariffs and the earlier return of Opec+ barrels, both of which have weighed on oil prices. Demand is at record levels and fossil fuels will play a key role in meeting future energy demand. "Decline curves are real, and in many basins significant, and adequate supplies today do not guarantee adequate supplies tomorrow without ongoing investment," Miller warned. "Our technology will continue to transform the industry and it will unlock new sources of value for us and our customers." 1Q profit, revenue down Profit of $204mn in the first quarter was down from $606mn in the same three months of 2024. Revenue slipped to $5.4bn from $5.8bn. North America revenue fell by 12pc to $2.2bn, largely because of lower stimulation activity in US land as well as a decline in completion tool sales in the Gulf of Mexico. International sales dipped by 2pc to $3.2bn, with Latin America revenue falling 19pc because of a slowdown in Mexico. However, revenue grew in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The company also reported a pre-tax charge of $356mn from employee severance costs and an impairment of assets held for sale. Halliburton is the first of the top oilfield services firms to release results. Baker Hughes will follow later on Tuesday, and SLB at the end of the week. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

22/04/25

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Global economic growth is expected to be significantly lower in 2025-26 than previously anticipated because of the steep tariffs President Donald Trump is pursuing for most imports and the uncertainty his policies are generating, the IMF said. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released today, forecasts the global economy will grow by 2.8pc in 2025 and 3pc in 2026. That compares with the 3.3pc/yr growth for 2025-26 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. Today's forecast is based on the tariffs that Trump had in place as of 4 April, before he paused steep tariffs on most countries and escalated tarrifs on China. These barriers had pushed up the effective US tariff rate to levels "not seen in a century", the IMF said. While Trump has altered his tariff levels repeatedly, he has imposed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most imports, a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, a 25pc tariff on some imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 145pc tariff on most imports from China. "This on its own is a major negative shock to growth," the IMF said. "The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook." IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The US and its closest trading partners appear to be among those hardest hit by tariffs and corresponding trade countermeasures. The IMF's baseline scenario forecasts US growth at 1.8pc this year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast the IMF released in January, reflecting higher policy uncertainty, trade tensions and softer demand outlook. Mexico's economy is now projected to shrink by 0.3pc in 2025, rather than grow by 1.4pc, while Canada's growth is forecast at 1.4pc in 2025, down from 2pc. The release of the IMF report comes as Trump has given no indications of a shift in thinking on tariffs, which he says are generating billions of dollars for the US and will prompt companies to relocate their manufacturing capacity to the US. "THE BUSINESSMEN WHO CRITICIZE TARIFFS ARE BAD AT BUSINESS, BUT REALLY BAD AT POLITICS. THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND OR REALIZE THAT I AM THE GREATEST FRIEND THAT AMERICAN CAPITALISM HAS EVER HAD!" Trump wrote on social media on 20 April. The next day, major stock markets indexes declined by more than 2pc, continuing their crash from when Trump began announcing his tariff policies. Trump on 21 April escalated his attacks against US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for failing to lower interest rates as Trump has demanded. There could be a "SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late" — his nickname for Powell — "a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump wrote. The IMF also ratcheted down its expectations for the Chinese economy. China's economy is expected to grow by 4pc/yr in 2025-26, down from the 4.6 and 4.5pc, respectively, the IMF was anticipating in January. The euro area is forecast to grow by 0.8pc in 2025 and 1.2pc in 2026, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the IMF's previous forecast. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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