US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep

Market: Metals, Natural gas
04/10/24

The US added more jobs than expected in September and the unemployment rate ticked down, signs the labor market is strengthening heading into the US presidential election.

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 workers last month, and the jobless rate fell to 4.1pc, the Labor Department reported Friday. Gains in August were revised up by 17,000 to 159,000 and those in July were revised up by 55,000 to 144,000.

September's job gains were much higher than the 140,000 estimated by economists in a Trading Economics survey.

Job gains blew past expectations in the same month the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020, citing concerns that a weakening labor market might pull down the overall economy. Odds of a quarter point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in November rose to 91pc today from about 68pc Thursday, according to fed funds futures markets, while odds of a half-point cut fell to 9pc. The Fed last month penciled in 50 basis points of cuts in the remainder of this year.

Job gains were higher than the average monthly gains of 203,000 over the prior 12 months, the Labor Department reported.

Employment continued to move higher in food services and drinking establishments, health care, government, social assistance and construction. The labor market was little affected by Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana on 11 September, during the reference periods for the surveys that contribute to the report.

Gains in restaurants and drinking places rose by 69,000 jobs, much higher than the average 14,000 added over the prior 12 months. Health care added 45,000 jobs, below the monthly average of 57,000. Government added 31,000 compared with monthly averages of 45,000. Social assistance added 27,000.

Construction added 25,000, near the monthly average. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs, most of them in the auto industry.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.2pc in August, still higher than the five-decade low of 3.4pc posted in early 2023.

Average hourly earnings rose by 4pc in the 12 months through September, up from 3.8pc through August.

By Bob Willis

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