10/02/25
Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January
Mexico City, 10 February (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to
an annual 3.59pc January, the lowest in four years, as deceleration in
agriculture prices offset faster inflation in energy and consumer goods prices.
This marks the lowest annual inflation since January 2021 and a significant
slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted
food prices. The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 7 January, was
slightly below than the 3.63pc median estimate from 35 analysts polled in Citi
Research's 5 February survey. It compares with the 4.21pc headline inflation in
December, marking five months of declines in the past six months. Mexican core
inflation, which excluded volatile energy and food, sped slightly to 3.66pc in
January from 3.65pc in December, while non-core inflation decelerated to 3.34pc
from 5.95pc the previous month. Movement, in the non-core, said Banorte, was
mostly explained by a positive basis of comparison, and "will reverse as soon as
the second half of February to push the headline metric above 4pc," said
Banorte. Core inflation accelerated slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in
December, marking the second uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration.
Services inflation slowed to 4.69pc from 4.94pc, while consumer goods inflation
ticked up to 2.74 from 2.4pc. Non-core inflation slowed sharply to 3.34pc from
6.57pc in December. This was largely due to base effects, Banorte said, adding
these base effects are likely to fade this month to speed headline annual
inflation back above 4pc. The base effects most clearly impacted fruit and
vegetable price inflation, contracting 7.73pc in January from 6.65pc annual
inflation the previous month. Moving forward, agriculture prices are highly
exposed to the coming hot, dry season in Mexico, with the La Nina climate
phenomenon, adding a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, energy inflation
accelerated to 6.34pc in January from 5.73pc the previous month, driven by
higher LPG prices. Electricity inflation, meanwhile, sped to 4.32pc in January
from 2.65pc in December, while inflation slowed to 0.02pc in January for
domestic natural gas prices from 5.67pc in December. Monetary policy The January
inflation report followed the central bank's decision Thursday to reduce its
target interest rate to 9.50pc from 10pc. This was the bank's sixth rate cut
since March 2024, winding down from 11.25pc. The 4-1 decision marked an
acceleration in the current rate cycle, opting for a half-point reduction rather
than the previous five 25-basis-point cuts. In board comments with the
announcement, the bank cited "significant progress in resolving the inflationary
episode derived from the global shocks" in 2021 and 2022. These triggered rate
hikes from 4pc in June 2021 to 11.25pc in April 2022, the target rate's historic
high. Taking into account the "country's weak economic activity" and this
progress in reducing inflation, the board said it would "consider adjusting [the
target] by similar magnitudes" at upcoming meetings. By James Young Send
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