Ukraine corn seeks other buyers in lieu of China

Spanish Market: Agriculture
28/01/25

China's sharp drop in corn imports this marketing year, a key factor weighing on projected global corn imports in 2024-25, has made Ukrainian corn exporters double down on offering to other buyers, such as Turkey, Egypt and the EU.

Despite Ukraine's corn exports forecast to fall on the year in 2024-25 (October-September), slower exports since December are adding to pressure on sellers of Ukrainian corn to seek outlets for their product.

China demand looks to domestic crop, Brazil

Global corn imports are forecast to fall to 183.2mn t in 2024-25, down from 197.1mn t the previous year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

For Ukraine's exports, the main challenge stemming from lower global imports is the sharp drop in purchases from the main buyer of Ukrainian corn — China.

Chinese corn imports are projected to fall to 13mn t in 2024-25, down from 23.4mn t a year earlier, according to the USDA. Argus forecasts China's 2024-25 corn imports even lower — at 7.2mn t, with some of China's local analysts expecting imports lower still.

The forecasted drop in China's import demand comes largely from the country's record domestic corn production in 2024-25, estimated by the USDA at 295mn t.

Before China's domestic corn harvest, Chinese demand focused on Brazil.

As for Ukraine, from the start of the 2024-25 season in October to the end of December, exporters declared only one Panamax vessel carrying corn for export to China. While the trade captured the attention of Ukraine's market participants, further volumes did not follow.

Turkish corn demand to weaken further out

In the absence of Chinese purchases, Turkey was the largest buyer of Ukrainian corn in October-December 2024, booking 1.6mn t — nearly as much as the 1.7mn t it had purchased throughout the whole of 2023-24. That said, shipments to Turkey for the remainder of the season may struggle to offset the drop in China-bound demand, given lower imports forecast for the whole of the season. Turkey is projected to receive 2.4mn t in 2024-25, down from 3.2mn t a year earlier.

The higher volumes of Ukrainian corn shipped to Turkey in October-December were at least in part driven by a notable drop in Russia's corn exports in 2024-25, which are forecast to halve on the year to 3.3mn t, according to the USDA.

Sellers of Ukrainian corn eye Egypt

Exports to Egypt in the first three months of the 2024-25 marketing year reached only around 540,000t, compared with a total of 3.64mn t exported to the country in 2023-24. This, despite the USDA forecasting Egypt's total corn imports this marketing year at 8.2mn t, slightly up from 8mn t a year ago, suggesting that Egypt could bring forward purchases in 2025. That said, buyers looking to secure Egypt-bound corn this marketing year have also looked towards South America, pushing sellers of Ukrainian corn to keep their offers competitive against Brazilian and Argentinian corn.

EU demand for Ukrainian corn mixed

In line with trends in previous marketing years, EU members have been among the top five buyers of Ukrainian corn so far in 2024-25.

Italy ramped up purchases of Ukrainian product significantly compared with the previous season, booking 1.1mn t of Ukrainian corn for the first three months of 2024-25. This compares with the 1.8mn t of Ukrainian corn booked by Italy throughout the whole of 2023-24.

Greater demand from Italy partly offset weaker demand from Spain. Ukraine exported only 1.1mn t of corn to Spain in October-December 2024, a fifth of the 5.5mn t of Ukrainian corn shipped to Spain throughout the whole of 2023-24. And corn exports to Portugal dropped sharply in October-December 2024 to only 30,000t, compared with a total of 1mn t shipped throughout 2023-24.

The drop in Ukraine's exports to some of the EU's largest corn importers is unlikely to come from weaker overall corn demand — the USDA forecasts the bloc's 2024-25 corn imports at 19.5mn t, down only slightly from 19.8mn t a year earlier. Instead, EU member states are more likely to be weighing up Ukrainian corn against some of its main competitors this season — the US, Brazil and Argentina.

By Alexey Yeromin

Select regions' corn imports mn t

Select countries' corn imports mn t

Main destinations for Ukraine's corn exports Oct-Dec 2024 mn t

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26/03/25

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

Sao Paulo, 26 March (Argus) — Brazil's former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro will face trial on charges of an attempted coup following his 2022 electoral defeat, the supreme court (STF) ruled today. In February Brazil's prosecutor-general charged Bolsonaro and seven other people — which include some of his former ministers — of plotting to guarantee that the former president stayed in power despite losing the election to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital of Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents , the prosecutor-general said. STF's five-judge panel voted unanimously to put Bolsonaro on trial, with top judge Alexandre Moraes saying that the 8 January insurrection was a result of "systematic efforts" by Bolsonaro and his aides to discredit the election he lost. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 40 years in jail. He is charged with five crimes, including leading an armed criminal organization, attempted coup and threatening to harm "the Union's assets." Although it is not clear when court proceedings will begin, they are expected this year, which is unusually fast for Brazil's justice system. "They are in a hurry, big hurry," Bolsonaro said of the legal proceedings on social media platform X, adding that the case is moving "10 times faster" than Lula's proceeding when he was on trial for the anti-corruption Car Wash investigation. Lula was eventually found guilty of money laundering and corruption and jailed in April 2018, but was later acquitted and freed in November 2019. Bolsonaro also added that the trial is politically motivated. "The court is trying to prevent me from being tried in 2026, because they want to stop me from running in the elections," he added. Brazil will hold presidential elections in October 2026. The electoral court voted in June 2023 to make Bolsonaro ineligible to run for any public office until 2030. But he is still seen as a major political force in the country. It is unclear who will serve as Bolsonaro's successor for more conservative voters, although Sao Paulo state's governor Tarcisio de Freitas has emerged as the most likely candidate. Bolsonaro — who sat in the president's seat from 2019-2022 — also faces several other legal challenges to his conduct as president, including allegations of money laundering, criminal association and embezzlement for allegedly receiving jewelry as gifts from Saudi Arabia related to the sale of state-controlled Petrobras' 330,000 b/d Landulpho Alves refinery in northeastern Bahia state to the UAE's Mubadala Capital. But none of these allegations have moved forward in the judiciary. During his administration, Bolsonaro privatized several state-owned energy assets and put little priority on environmental protections, policies that Lula has since reversed. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef

25/03/25

Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef

Sao Paulo, 25 March (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva traveled to Japan on Tuesday in search of energy transition agreements and new market opportunities to improve trade relations between the countries. Bilateral Japan-Brazil trade fell to around $11bn in 2024, down from $17bn in 2011, the Brazilian government said. Brazil exported $730mn in goods to Japan in January-February, while importing $995mn from the Asian country in the period, according to Brazil trade ministry data. Exports dropped by almost 13.5pc from a year before in the two-month period, while imports grew by nearly 25pc. "Firstly, we have [a shortfall] to turn around," Lula said. Brazil will also ask Japan to join its growth acceleration plan . He is accompanied by 11 ministers and four members of congress, including senate president Davi Alcolumbre and lower house president Hugo Motta. Ethanol market Brazil aims to sell more ethanol to Japan, as the Asian country expects to increase its ethanol blend to 10pc from 3pc by 2030. "If Japan blends 10pc of ethanol into gasoline, it will be an extraordinary step not only for us to export to them but for them to be able to produce in Brazil," Lula said. Japan received 3.4pc of Brazil's ethanol exports in 2024, according to Brazil's development and trade ministry. Cop 30 and energy transition Lula's visit also seeks to attract investment in renewable energy, forest revamps and new donations to the Amazon Fund, as well as a "strong commitment" from Japan at the Cop 30 summit, to be held in Brazil later this year. Brazil aims to export clean fuels to generate power to Japan, as power imports account for more than 80pc of all Japanese power demand and "a large share of it comes from fossil sources," according to the Brazilian foreign relations ministry's Asia and Pacific secretary Eduardo Saboia. Brazilian and Japanese companies announced earlier this year plans to produce biomethane in Brazil . The renewable fuel would supply both countries. Brazil and Japan should also sign a deal to help recover the Cerrado biome, which is the second largest biome in Brazil and the second most endangered. It comprises of savanah grasslands and forest and makes up about 25pc of the nation's territory. The Cerrado lost 9.7mn hectares to wildfires in 2024, up by almost 92pc from 2023, according to environmental network MapBiomas' fire monitor researching program. Deforestation is one of Brazil's flagship issues for Cop 30 this year. The country has been pushing for forest protection and recovery initiatives as most of Brazil's past Cop pledges cannot be met with only its remaining forests. Japan and Brazil should talk about the Amazon Fund as well because Brazil "wants more", Saboia said. Japan was the first Asian country to donate to the fund with $14mn, which Saboia said was "too little." Where's the beef? Lula is also targeting opening Japan's beef market to Brazilian exports, as the Asian country imports over 70pc of all its beef. Lula met with members of the beef exporters association Abiec in his first day in Japan to discuss the matter. The bulk of Japan's beef imports — 80pc — come from the US, the Brazilian government said. Brazil does not currently export beef to Japan. "Brazil has the logistic capacity to increase exports and double beef exports every four years," transport ministry Renan Filho said. Brazil has been trying to enter Japan's beef market for over two decades. This time, Lula expects to achieve a technical visit from Japan to inspect Brazil's beef producing conditions as a first step toward accessing the Japanese market. Lula will depart to Vietnam on 28 March to debate a plan to turn the country into one of Brazil's strategic partners. Only Indonesia is considered a Brazil strategic partner in southeast Asia. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia frozen boxed beef: Sales slow

21/03/25

Australia frozen boxed beef: Sales slow

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Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

20/03/25

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — The first towboat arrived at St Paul, Minnesota, today, marking the start of the 2025 navigation season on the upper Mississippi River, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Neil N. Diehl passed through Lock 2 at Hastings, Minnesota, with nine barges, crossing into St Paul on 19 March. Tows reaching St Paul signify the unofficial start of the navigation season, as St Paul is the last port to open on the Mississippi River after winter ice thaws each year. This is considered an average start time for the navigation season, which typically opens the third week of March. The first tow to reach St Paul in 2024 arrived on 17 March. The Corps released the final Lake Pepin ice measurements of 17in on 12 March and was unable to take new measurements this week since the ice had melted significantly. Lake Pepin measurements help determine when the ice will be thin enough for barges to transit up river. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Escoamento de soja causa fila de caminhões em Rondônia

20/03/25

Escoamento de soja causa fila de caminhões em Rondônia

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — O tempo de espera para embarque da safra de soja 2024-25 no porto de Porto Velho, em Rondônia, chegou a seis dias nesta semana, de acordo com a Associação dos Produtores de Soja do estado (Aprosoja-RO). A falta de infraestrutura portuária e de armazenagem nas fazendas, aliada ao pico da colheita da oleaginosa nas últimas semanas, aumentou a fila de caminhões para o escoamento das cargas no porto de Porto Velho. "Tivemos uma fila de até 1.200 caminhões no pátio de triagem de Porto Velho, por onde é escoada toda a produção do estado e da região noroeste de Mato Grosso", disse o diretor administrativo da Aprosoja-RO, Marcelo Lucas. As cargas embarcadas seguem pelo Rio Madeira até o porto de Santarém, no Pará, de onde é exportada. A colheita de soja 2024-25 em Rondônia deve atingir 2,4 milhões de toneladas (t), um aumento de 7pc em relação ao ciclo anterior, de acordo com a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). Rondônia não teve dificuldades no escoamento de soja nessa magnitude em anos anteriores, mas, por conta do pico de colheita na safra deste ciclo, há um volume maior a ser transportado em um menor espaço de tempo, segundo a Aprosoja-RO. A Aprosoja-RO também disse que os gargalos logísticos têm causado prejuízos aos produtores, que não conseguem escoar a colheita de suas propriedades. As cargas que conseguem ser embarcadas acabam degradadas por conta das longas tempos de esperas para descarga. Os produtores também estão absorvendo os custos de manter caminhões estacionados em armazéns e portos, elevando os preços do frete de grãos rodoviário a níveis acima do que é tradicionalmente praticado na região, disse a Aprosoja-RO. Na semana encerrada em 13 de março, o frete rodoviário de grãos no corredor Sapezal-Porto Velho atingiu R$235/t, ante R$185/t no mesmo período em 2024. A entidade disse que está trabalhando com o governo do estado para rever a concessão do porto de Porto Velho, permitindo que outras empresas operem. A Aprosoja-RO recebeu relatos de que há espaços ociosos que poderiam estar atendendo aos produtores. O porto de Porto Velho é administrado pela Sociedade de Portos e Hidrovias de Rondônia (Soph), que informou que não administra as filas externas e não tem autoridade na área retroportuária de caminhões aguardando liberação para triagem nos terminais. Por Bruno Castro Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

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