Ukraine corn seeks other buyers in lieu of China

: Agriculture
25/01/28

China's sharp drop in corn imports this marketing year, a key factor weighing on projected global corn imports in 2024-25, has made Ukrainian corn exporters double down on offering to other buyers, such as Turkey, Egypt and the EU.

Despite Ukraine's corn exports forecast to fall on the year in 2024-25 (October-September), slower exports since December are adding to pressure on sellers of Ukrainian corn to seek outlets for their product.

China demand looks to domestic crop, Brazil

Global corn imports are forecast to fall to 183.2mn t in 2024-25, down from 197.1mn t the previous year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

For Ukraine's exports, the main challenge stemming from lower global imports is the sharp drop in purchases from the main buyer of Ukrainian corn — China.

Chinese corn imports are projected to fall to 13mn t in 2024-25, down from 23.4mn t a year earlier, according to the USDA. Argus forecasts China's 2024-25 corn imports even lower — at 7.2mn t, with some of China's local analysts expecting imports lower still.

The forecasted drop in China's import demand comes largely from the country's record domestic corn production in 2024-25, estimated by the USDA at 295mn t.

Before China's domestic corn harvest, Chinese demand focused on Brazil.

As for Ukraine, from the start of the 2024-25 season in October to the end of December, exporters declared only one Panamax vessel carrying corn for export to China. While the trade captured the attention of Ukraine's market participants, further volumes did not follow.

Turkish corn demand to weaken further out

In the absence of Chinese purchases, Turkey was the largest buyer of Ukrainian corn in October-December 2024, booking 1.6mn t — nearly as much as the 1.7mn t it had purchased throughout the whole of 2023-24. That said, shipments to Turkey for the remainder of the season may struggle to offset the drop in China-bound demand, given lower imports forecast for the whole of the season. Turkey is projected to receive 2.4mn t in 2024-25, down from 3.2mn t a year earlier.

The higher volumes of Ukrainian corn shipped to Turkey in October-December were at least in part driven by a notable drop in Russia's corn exports in 2024-25, which are forecast to halve on the year to 3.3mn t, according to the USDA.

Sellers of Ukrainian corn eye Egypt

Exports to Egypt in the first three months of the 2024-25 marketing year reached only around 540,000t, compared with a total of 3.64mn t exported to the country in 2023-24. This, despite the USDA forecasting Egypt's total corn imports this marketing year at 8.2mn t, slightly up from 8mn t a year ago, suggesting that Egypt could bring forward purchases in 2025. That said, buyers looking to secure Egypt-bound corn this marketing year have also looked towards South America, pushing sellers of Ukrainian corn to keep their offers competitive against Brazilian and Argentinian corn.

EU demand for Ukrainian corn mixed

In line with trends in previous marketing years, EU members have been among the top five buyers of Ukrainian corn so far in 2024-25.

Italy ramped up purchases of Ukrainian product significantly compared with the previous season, booking 1.1mn t of Ukrainian corn for the first three months of 2024-25. This compares with the 1.8mn t of Ukrainian corn booked by Italy throughout the whole of 2023-24.

Greater demand from Italy partly offset weaker demand from Spain. Ukraine exported only 1.1mn t of corn to Spain in October-December 2024, a fifth of the 5.5mn t of Ukrainian corn shipped to Spain throughout the whole of 2023-24. And corn exports to Portugal dropped sharply in October-December 2024 to only 30,000t, compared with a total of 1mn t shipped throughout 2023-24.

The drop in Ukraine's exports to some of the EU's largest corn importers is unlikely to come from weaker overall corn demand — the USDA forecasts the bloc's 2024-25 corn imports at 19.5mn t, down only slightly from 19.8mn t a year earlier. Instead, EU member states are more likely to be weighing up Ukrainian corn against some of its main competitors this season — the US, Brazil and Argentina.

By Alexey Yeromin

Select regions' corn imports mn t

Select countries' corn imports mn t

Main destinations for Ukraine's corn exports Oct-Dec 2024 mn t

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/03/20

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — The first towboat arrived at St Paul, Minnesota, today, marking the start of the 2025 navigation season on the upper Mississippi River, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Neil N. Diehl passed through Lock 2 at Hastings, Minnesota, with nine barges, crossing into St Paul on 19 March. Tows reaching St Paul signify the unofficial start of the navigation season, as St Paul is the last port to open on the Mississippi River after winter ice thaws each year. This is considered an average start time for the navigation season, which typically opens the third week of March. The first tow to reach St Paul in 2024 arrived on 17 March. The Corps released the final Lake Pepin ice measurements of 17in on 12 March and was unable to take new measurements this week since the ice had melted significantly. Lake Pepin measurements help determine when the ice will be thin enough for barges to transit up river. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Escoamento de soja causa fila de caminhões em Rondônia

25/03/20

Escoamento de soja causa fila de caminhões em Rondônia

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — O tempo de espera para embarque da safra de soja 2024-25 no porto de Porto Velho, em Rondônia, chegou a seis dias nesta semana, de acordo com a Associação dos Produtores de Soja do estado (Aprosoja-RO). A falta de infraestrutura portuária e de armazenagem nas fazendas, aliada ao pico da colheita da oleaginosa nas últimas semanas, aumentou a fila de caminhões para o escoamento das cargas no porto de Porto Velho. "Tivemos uma fila de até 1.200 caminhões no pátio de triagem de Porto Velho, por onde é escoada toda a produção do estado e da região noroeste de Mato Grosso", disse o diretor administrativo da Aprosoja-RO, Marcelo Lucas. As cargas embarcadas seguem pelo Rio Madeira até o porto de Santarém, no Pará, de onde é exportada. A colheita de soja 2024-25 em Rondônia deve atingir 2,4 milhões de toneladas (t), um aumento de 7pc em relação ao ciclo anterior, de acordo com a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). Rondônia não teve dificuldades no escoamento de soja nessa magnitude em anos anteriores, mas, por conta do pico de colheita na safra deste ciclo, há um volume maior a ser transportado em um menor espaço de tempo, segundo a Aprosoja-RO. A Aprosoja-RO também disse que os gargalos logísticos têm causado prejuízos aos produtores, que não conseguem escoar a colheita de suas propriedades. As cargas que conseguem ser embarcadas acabam degradadas por conta das longas tempos de esperas para descarga. Os produtores também estão absorvendo os custos de manter caminhões estacionados em armazéns e portos, elevando os preços do frete de grãos rodoviário a níveis acima do que é tradicionalmente praticado na região, disse a Aprosoja-RO. Na semana encerrada em 13 de março, o frete rodoviário de grãos no corredor Sapezal-Porto Velho atingiu R$235/t, ante R$185/t no mesmo período em 2024. A entidade disse que está trabalhando com o governo do estado para rever a concessão do porto de Porto Velho, permitindo que outras empresas operem. A Aprosoja-RO recebeu relatos de que há espaços ociosos que poderiam estar atendendo aos produtores. O porto de Porto Velho é administrado pela Sociedade de Portos e Hidrovias de Rondônia (Soph), que informou que não administra as filas externas e não tem autoridade na área retroportuária de caminhões aguardando liberação para triagem nos terminais. Por Bruno Castro Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 14.25pc

25/03/20

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 14.25pc

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — Brazil's central bank raised its target interest rate by 1 percentage point to 14.25pc amid accelerating inflation in a decelerating — but still heated — economy. The hike in the target rate, announced Wednesday, was the fifth in a row from a cyclical low of 10.5pc at the end of September last year, partly prompted by accelerating depreciation of the currency, the real, to the US dollar. Brazil's annualized inflation hit 5.06pc in February and is poised to keep accelerating. The bank's Focus economic report increased its inflation forecast to 5.7pc for the end-of-year 2025 from 5.5pc in January, when the bank's policy-making committee last met. Brazil's current government has an inflation ceiling goal of 3pc with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. The bank has recently changed the way it tracks the inflation goal. Instead of tracking inflation on a calendar year basis, it now monitors the goal on a rolling 12-month basis. The bank cited heated economic activity and a strong labor market as factors that have contributed to rising inflation. But the bank forecasts "modest GDP growth" for Brazil of almost 2pc in 2025, down from 3.4pc growth last year. Further tightening will also be linked to global economic uncertainty prompted by US president Donald Trump's aggressive trade and other policies and the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve , according to the bank. Brazil's target interest rate is expected to keep rising at the bank's next meeting in 6-7 May, albeit to "a lesser extent" as the contributing factors are set to moderate, according to the committee. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's soybean outflow causes truck queue in Rondonia

25/03/20

Brazil's soybean outflow causes truck queue in Rondonia

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — The waiting time for shipping the 2024-25 soybean crop at Brazil's port of Porto Velho reached six days this week, according to the local soybean producers association Aprosoja-RO. Lack of port infrastructure and farm storage, combined with the 2024-25 oilseed harvest peak in recent weeks, increased the truck queue for the flow of cargo at the port, in Brazil's northern state of Rondonia. "We have a queue of up to 1,200 trucks at the Porto Velho sorting yard, where all the production from the state and from Mato Grosso's northwest region are transported," said the administrative director of Aprosoja-RO, Marcelo Lucas. The cargo is shipped and continues along the Madeira River to the port of Santarem, in northern Para state, where it is exported. The 2024-25 soybean harvest in Rondonia is expected to reach 2.4mn metric tonnes (t), up by 7pc from the previous cycle, according to the national supply company Conab. Rondonia state did not have difficulties of this magnitude in previous years, but because of the peak in this cycle's harvest, there is a higher volume to be transported in a shorter period of time, according to Aprosoja-RO. Aprosoja-RO also said the logistical bottlenecks have caused losses to producers, who are unable to transport the harvest from their properties. The cargoes that are able to be loaded end up degraded because of the long waits in lines. Farmers are also absorbing the costs of keeping trucks parked in warehouses and ports, raising road freight prices to levels above what is traditionally practiced in the region, said Aprosoja-RO. In the week ending 13 March road grain freight on the Sapezal-Porto Velho corridor reached R235/t ($42/t), compared to R185/t in the same period in 2024. The entity said they are working with the state government to review the concession of the Porto Velho port, allowing other companies to operate it. Aprosoja-RO received reports that there are idle spaces that could be serving the producers. The port of Porto Velho is managed by the state ports and waterways society Soph, which said it does not manage the external truck queues, and does not have authority in the retroport area of trucks awaiting clearance for sorting to the terminals. By Bruno Castro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

25/03/19

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

Adds Powell comments, economic projections. Houston, 19 March (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020. "Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we are looking at," Fed chair Jerome Powell told journalists after the meeting. "The economy seems to be healthy." Powell acknowledged some of the negative market sentiment in recent weeks, which he said "... probably has to do with turmoil at the beginning of an administration." "We kind of know there are going to be tariffs and they tend to bring growth down and they tend to bring inflation up," he said, but long-term inflation expectations are "well anchored." In December the Fed said it expected 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents. Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.7pc from a prior estimate of 2.1pc in the December economic projections. They see inflation rising to 2.7pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.5pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more