EIA raises US 2026 renewables outlook

Spanish Market: Electricity, Emissions
11/06/25

The US renewable energy fleet remains on track to provide an increasing portion of the country's total electricity over the next two years, even with some changes in the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest projections.

Renewable energy is on track to supply almost 1.1bn MWh in 2025 and 1.2bn MWh in 2026, enough to account for roughly 25pc and 27pc of all US generation in those years, EIA said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The 2025 estimate is less than 1pc lower than the agency's forecast in May, while the 2026 outlook is about 2pc higher.

Renewables in 2024 generated almost 948mn MWh, about 23pc of all US generation.

EIA attributes the higher share from renewables to projects coming on line through the end of 2026. The agency expects developers to add about 32,500MW of utility-scale solar to the grid this year, which would surpass the record high of 30,000MW in 2024. EIA anticipates about 7,700MW of new capacity from the wind sector this year. Wind capacity in 2024 expanded by about 5,100MW, its lowest showing since 2014.

The month-over-month change in the larger renewables outlook corresponds with higher expectations for wind and solar generation next year. Wind farms are now on track to provide about 506mn MWh in 2026, while utility-scale solar farms will generate around 350mn MWh, each about 2pc higher from May's outlook. If the solar projection bears out, it would surpass hydropower in 2025 as the second most prevalent form of renewable generation in the US.

In the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory, EIA expects non-hydropower renewable generators are on pace to supply nearly 179mn MWh in 2025, down by less than 1pc from last month's outlook. But the 216mn MWh now anticipated from the sector in 2026 marks an almost 10pc increase from May's predictions for the Texas grid.

EIA's lowered its predictions for non-hydropower renewables in the New York Independent System Operator's footprint by less than 1pc for 2025 and by 4pc for 2026, to 11.5mn MWh and just under 13mn MWh, respectively.

Revisions to other regional forecasts were minimal. EIA increased its expectations for non-hydropower renewables in the areas managed by the PJM Interconnection, ISO-New England and Midcontinent Independent System Operator by less than 1pc for both 2025 and 2026.

Renewable energy resources for EIA's purposes include conventional hydropower, wind, solar projects larger than 1MW, geothermal and certain forms of biomass.

By Patrick Zemanek

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18/07/25

Brazil launches climate mitigation strategy plan

Sao Paulo, 18 July (Argus) — Brazil's environment ministry issued a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) through seven guidelines and mitigation targets that will be measured every three years as of 2024. The strategy is part of a larger project known as Plano Clima that seeks to promote energy efficiency, low-carbon agriculture and cattle raising practices, green hydrogen supply and wider use of renewable fuels. Each of the seven sectors included in the national strategy for mitigation plan issued on Friday will follow specific guidelines with targets, action plans, cost projections, financing pathways, monitoring and assessment. Sectors include agriculture and cattle raising, nature conservation, cities and urban mobility, energy and mining, industry, solid waste and effluents, as well as transport, all aligned with another strategy plan to employ climate adaptation. Mitigation action plans will set targets from 2024-27, 2028-31 and 2032-35, the ministry said. All documents will be available for public consultation from 28 July-18 August. The country's emissions come mostly from deforestation and agribusiness activities, which are ahead of burning fossil fuels in the transport and industry sectors, according to the environment ministry. Early in the week, the US Trade Representative (USTR) launched an investigation to determine if Brazil's illegal deforestation undermines the competitiveness of US timber and agricultural industries . National deforestation fell by 32pc in 2024 from a year before, according to space institute Inpe. But Brazil also scorched an area greater than the size of Italy in 2024 , according to environmental network MapBiomas. Brazil has set a target of ceasing deforestation, both legal and illegal, by 2030, as well as to reach net zero emissions by 2050. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India’s clean fuel aim falls short of actual generation

18/07/25

India’s clean fuel aim falls short of actual generation

Mumbai, 18 July (Argus) — India has reached its goal to have 50pc of its installed power generation capacity based on non-fossil fuel sources — but faces challenges in translating the new capacity into actual power generation, market participants told Argus . India reached the goal in June this year — five-years ahead of the 2030 target it had set under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to the Paris Climate Agreement. But its reliance on coal and gas continues. India relies on thermal power generation to meet base load power demand with coal-fired plants contributing over 70pc of the total energy generated. Non-fossil fuel sources, including renewables, nuclear and hydro power generation account for only 28pc of electricity generation, government data show. India's installed capacity of non-fossil fuel sources, that includes renewables, reached 234GW as of 30 June, while nuclear power reached 8.7GW, making up half of India's power generation capacity of 484.4GW in June, according to power ministry data. Renewables and nuclear power generation stood at 195GW and 8.1GW, respectively, during the same time last year. India's overall power generation was lower this year falling by 5pc on the year to 159.67GW in May due to an early onset of monsoon , latest government data show. Electricity generation data for June was not yet available. Power generation from non-fossil fuel sources showed an uptick this year, as against thermal power generation. (See table) Continued dependence on coal Despite the rise in non-fossil fuel sources, installed capacity of thermal power generation including coal and natural gas, remained stable this year at 242GW as of 30 June compared with 242.9GW last year, on the back of a decline in gas-fired power generation, power ministry data show. India has temporarily shut 4.4GW of gas-fired power capacity from April due to weak domestic gas supply and elevated import prices. Interestingly, coal-fired power generation capacity showed an uptick of 4GW at 214.7GW as of 30 June, compared with 210.9GW last year, the data showed. India had approved about 15GW of new coal-fired power capacity last year — the second-largest volume addition globally for coal-fired power generation after China. India's rising use of solar and wind power also faces grid integration challenges due to the intermittent nature of the generation. The government has been working on enhancing storage via battery systems and smart grids to address these issues. By Rituparna Ghosh India's electricity generation in GW Source May-25 May-24 Diff Thermal 114.1 127.8 -10.7 Nuclear 5.1 4.5 15.5 Hydro (Large) 13.3 12.6 5.0 Renewables 26.6 22.5 18.2 Bhutan Import 0.6 0.1 338.5 Total 159.7 167.5 -4.7 Source: Central Electricity Authority Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US power grid operators issue weather alerts

17/07/25

US power grid operators issue weather alerts

New York, 17 July (Argus) — The grid operators of most of the US' seven organized power markets have issued hot weather alerts in an attempt to balance supply and demand while hot weather triggers higher electric-powered air conditioning use. PJM Interconnection, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the Independent System Operator of New England (ISO-New England) and Southwest Power Pool (SPP) have issued alerts. PJM Interconnection, the largest US grid operator serving 67mn customers in the mid-Atlantic and beyond, issued a hot weather alert that took effect on Thursday, asking generators to defer or cancel maintenance, confirm equipment is functional and review fuel supply and delivery schedules in anticipation of above-normal demand. ISO-New England confirmed on Thursday that the precautionary alert it issued Wednesday would remain in effect as hot, humid weather threatened tight operating conditions Thursday evening. Day-ahead peak power prices for zone J in New York City on Wednesday jumped to $149.74/MWh, double the week-earlier price and the highest since 23 June, when there was a more severe heat wave. The New England Pool peak day-ahead price on Wednesday dropped to $140.24/MWh, down by 23pc from the previous session but triple the week-earlier price. The Transco zone 6 New York natural gas index, a key indicator for prices in New York City, from 15-16 July topped $3.40/mmBtu for the first time since 23 June, while the Algonquin Citygates index in New England from 15-16 July topped $9/mmBtu for the first time since February. MISO on Thursday made a "conservative operations" declaration, effective from 8am ET on 21 July to 10pm ET on 25 July. SPP, which spans a cluster of states north of Texas and west of MISO's service territory, also issued a weather advisory for the central and southern regions of its balancing authority area, effective from 1pm ET on 21 July to 9pm ET on 24 July. NYISO on Thursday said its statewide energy supply conditions were normal, though it also said resources from its emergency demand response program would be needed from 3-10pm ET on Thursday. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, operator of the state's electric grid, has not issued a weather-related alert, nor has the California Independent System Operator. The ERCOT Houston peak day-ahead price on Wednesday rose to $41.85/MWh, up by 33pc from a week earlier and the highest since 30 June. Temperatures in New York City were forecast to peak at 89°F (32°C) on Thursday and 86°F on Friday. Temperatures in Houston, Texas, were forecast to peak at 96°F on Thursday and 88°F on Friday. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US probes Brazil deforestation as trade issue

16/07/25

US probes Brazil deforestation as trade issue

Sao Paulo, 16 July (Argus) — The US Trade Representative (USTR) launched an investigation into illegal deforestation in Brazil to determine if it undermines the competitiveness of US timber and agricultural industries. The investigation will "seek to determine whether [the Brazilian government's] acts, policies and practices" related to illegal deforestation "are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict US commerce," namely US timber and agricultural producers. Brazil is a major producer of timber and agricultural goods, but much of that growth has been through widespread environmental destruction, including in the Amazon rainforest, and coversion of that land to grow crops. Brazil has taken measures to combat the deforestation, however, leading to a 32pc decline in deforestation in 2024 from a year prior, according to its space institute Inpe. It also reduced wildfires in the first half of 2025 by 66pc from the same period a year before , according to its environment ministry. The country has set a goal of eliminating deforestation by 2030. Brazil's federal government has also worked to strengthen funds to combat deforestation and climate change, such as the Amazon fund and the Climate fund . The latter was set up in 2008 but suspended in 2019 during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, a climate skeptic. The current administration has since reinstated it. Brazil's current federal administration has also put environmental issues at the forefront of its policies , seeking to become a leader in that area. This includes highlighting the issues during its hosting of the G20 summit last year , the Brics summit earlier this month, and hosting the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November. But some government initiatives — such as the push to drill the environmentally-sensitive equatorial margin — have drawn backlash from climate groups . An environmental licensing bill currently held up in the lower house is also receiving criticism from environmentalists and the environment ministry because it exempts some sectors, such as forms of agriculture that opening large areas for crops or cattle, from needing to obtain environmental licenses. Climate agency Observatorio do Clima called it "the largest legal setback since the creation of Brazil's constitution." Deforestation will be one of the country's flagship issues during the Cop 30 summit, including promoting the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) initiative, a fund to preserve global tropical forests. USTR's investigation comes a week after US president Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil as of 1 August, citing both unfair practices by Brazil and the ongoing trial of Bolsonaro , which he called "a witch hunt". The investigation will also probe the access of Brazilian ethanol into the US market , digital trade and electronic payment services, anti-corruption interference and intellectual property protection. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU states to reach stance on 2040 climate goal in Sep

16/07/25

EU states to reach stance on 2040 climate goal in Sep

Brussels, 16 July (Argus) — EU member states' position on the bloc's 2040 climate target should be finalised on 18 September, after a "very tight process", Danish climate and energy minister Lars Aagaard said today. "There are also some in this room who think that the answer to competitiveness challenges is to abandon climate targets. That is not what I hear a majority of European countries want," Aagaard told the European Parliament's energy committee today. Aagaard is overseeing the process, as Denmark holds the six-month rotating EU council presidency until the end of the year. The European Commission earlier this month formally proposed a 2040 goal of a 90pc cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, from 1990 levels. The bloc will then use the 2040 target to submit a climate plan, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), for a timeframe to 2035, to UN climate body the UNFCCC. Aargaard will need parliament's approval of the update — the 2040 target — to the bloc's 2021 climate law. But Czech ECR conservative Alexander Vondra referred to voices that see the commission's proposed 90pc net GHG cut as "too draconian". Vondra also called for more flexibility in the use of international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The commission proposes limiting their use for domestic reductions to only 3pc of 1990 GHG emissions. "This 3pc is good for a couple of multinationals, some richer states. Poor states, small companies have no chance. Are you willing to compromise, to give more flexibility?" Vondra asked. Former environment committee chair Pascal Canfin called for robust "flexibilities" when using international carbon credits. "Robust means that it cannot be within the ETS. It has to be negotiated by the commission itself and not having 27 [member state] parallel negotiations," Canfin, a French liberal Renew member, said. Aagaard did not expand beyond previous statements about "general support" among member states on Article 6 credits, and the need to maintain integrity and credibility. He added that EU states have questioned the "how" and not the "why" of the flexibility mechanism. "And then, of course, there is a discussion between the member states in relation to the volume," Aagaard said. Spanish Patriots member Hermann Tertsch said his group "will also monitor parliament's timetable, raising concerns about possible deliberate delays, as the group explicitly expressed resistance to the bill." The far-right group opposes a 90pc reduction target for 2040 but has been allocated the legal file. Any delay to the 2040 target would raise questions about the timing of the bloc's NDC submission that itself is to be derived from the 2040 target. The NDC has to be submitted ahead of the UN Cop 30 climate conference in Belem, Brazil, in November. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EIA raises US 2026 renewables outlook

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Brazil launches climate mitigation strategy plan

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