EIA raises US 2026 renewables outlook

: Electricity, Emissions
25/06/11

The US renewable energy fleet remains on track to provide an increasing portion of the country's total electricity over the next two years, even with some changes in the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest projections.

Renewable energy is on track to supply almost 1.1bn MWh in 2025 and 1.2bn MWh in 2026, enough to account for roughly 25pc and 27pc of all US generation in those years, EIA said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The 2025 estimate is less than 1pc lower than the agency's forecast in May, while the 2026 outlook is about 2pc higher.

Renewables in 2024 generated almost 948mn MWh, about 23pc of all US generation.

EIA attributes the higher share from renewables to projects coming on line through the end of 2026. The agency expects developers to add about 32,500MW of utility-scale solar to the grid this year, which would surpass the record high of 30,000MW in 2024. EIA anticipates about 7,700MW of new capacity from the wind sector this year. Wind capacity in 2024 expanded by about 5,100MW, its lowest showing since 2014.

The month-over-month change in the larger renewables outlook corresponds with higher expectations for wind and solar generation next year. Wind farms are now on track to provide about 506mn MWh in 2026, while utility-scale solar farms will generate around 350mn MWh, each about 2pc higher from May's outlook. If the solar projection bears out, it would surpass hydropower in 2025 as the second most prevalent form of renewable generation in the US.

In the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory, EIA expects non-hydropower renewable generators are on pace to supply nearly 179mn MWh in 2025, down by less than 1pc from last month's outlook. But the 216mn MWh now anticipated from the sector in 2026 marks an almost 10pc increase from May's predictions for the Texas grid.

EIA's lowered its predictions for non-hydropower renewables in the New York Independent System Operator's footprint by less than 1pc for 2025 and by 4pc for 2026, to 11.5mn MWh and just under 13mn MWh, respectively.

Revisions to other regional forecasts were minimal. EIA increased its expectations for non-hydropower renewables in the areas managed by the PJM Interconnection, ISO-New England and Midcontinent Independent System Operator by less than 1pc for both 2025 and 2026.

Renewable energy resources for EIA's purposes include conventional hydropower, wind, solar projects larger than 1MW, geothermal and certain forms of biomass.

By Patrick Zemanek

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25/07/11

DOE to halt wind transmission line: US senator

Houston, 11 July (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has pledged to halt an 800-mile transmission line designed to deliver wind power from Kansas to eastern states, according to a US senator. US energy secretary Chris Wright has said he "will be putting a stop" to the Grain Belt Express transmission line, senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) said on Thursday via the X social media platform. Hawley has made repeated calls for the Department of Energy (DOE) to cancel a $4.9bn conditional loan awarded to the project in the waning days of former president Joe Biden's administration. The senator has called the project an "elitist land grab harming Missouri farmers and ranchers". Whether Wright pledged to rescind the loan or take other action to stop work on Grain Belt Express was not immediately clear from Hawley's statement. Neither the senator's office nor DOE immediately responded to requests for additional information. Hawley's statement is "bizarre", according to Invenergy, the Chicago-based developer behind the project. The company said that the transmission line has already received approvals from all four states that it will traverse, acquired 1,500 agreements with landowners tied to construction and announced "significant" supply chain agreements for materials sourced domestically. "Senator Hawley is attempting to kill the largest transmission infrastructure project in US history, which is already approved by four states and is aligned with the president's energy dominance agenda," the company said. The Grain Belt Express would deliver wind power from Kansas to converter stations in Missouri and Indiana, with the Missouri station connecting to grids overseen by the Associated Electric Cooperative and Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), while the Indiana station links with the PJM Interconnection. Invenergy plans to build the project in two phases, with the first delivering 2,500MW into Missouri and the second ferrying another 2,500MW to the PJM region, which includes the District of Columbia and 13 states in the Midwest and mid-Atlantic. DOE in November 2024 awarded the project a conditional loan of up to $4.9bn to help finance the initial stage as part of Biden's larger push to decarbonize the electricity sector. Invenergy intends to start construction on the first phase next year. Ultimately, the line would supply 15mn MWh/yr to Missouri, with 60pc of the capacity allocated to MISO and the remainder to the Associated Electric Cooperative. Another 15mn MWh/yr would flow into the PJM markets. Altogether, the line would supply enough electricity to cover the demand of more than 2.8mn households. Landowner groups in Missouri have long targeted the Grain Belt Express, but have failed to stymie the project through a challenge to its use of eminent domain . Opponents have since continued their efforts against the project, and Missouri attorney general Andrew Bailey, a Republican, last week called on state utility regulators to rescind the line's permit on grounds that Invenergy relied on "deceptive" information to secure its approval. By Patrick Zemanek Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

25/07/11

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

Calgary, 11 July (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney reiterated his plan to diversify trade with countries "throughout the world" following another round of tariff threats, and another deadline, from US president Donald Trump. Carney's comments on social media late on 10 July came hours after Trump said Canada could expect a 35pc tariff on all imports , effective 1 August, repeating earlier claims that the northern country was not doing enough to stop fentanyl from crossing into the US. Canada has said these claims are bogus but in late-2024 still committed to spending $900bn (C$1.3bn) on border security measures over six years. "Canada has made vital progress to stop the source of fentanyl in North America," Carney wrote on X. The prime minister said he is now working to strike a new trade deal before the 1 August deadline. Trump and Carney last month agreed they would work toward a broad trade agreement by mid-July, with Canada at the time targeting 21 July to finalize a deal. The 35pc tariff would be separate from tariffs set for specific sectors, which include a 50pc tariff on copper imports. It is not clear if any imports currently covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) would be affected by Trump's latest tariff threats. Carney has advocated the need to shore up trade partnerships with "reliable" countries since being sworn is as prime minister in March, saying the old relationship with the US "is over". The energy-rich nation needs to build more infrastructure to unlock this potential, and with a surge in public support, is trying to entice developers with a new law to fast-track project approvals . But those are multi-year efforts and Canada is still trying to reach a deal with the US to keep goods moving smoothly. The two economies are highly integrated with $762bn worth of goods crossing the US-Canada border in 2024, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. Canada on 29 June rescinded a digital sales tax (DST) that would have collected revenue from the US' largest tech companies, after US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick said the tax could have been a deal breaker in trade negotiations. That show of good faith — which seemingly got nothing in return — was criticized within Canada and contrary to Carney's repeated "elbows up" mantra in the face of Trump's threats. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China mandates renewable power use for industry

25/07/11

China mandates renewable power use for industry

Beijing, 11 July (Argus) — China's leading economic planning agency the NDRC and national energy administration NEA have set renewable power consumption goals for energy-intensive industries for this year and next, with green electricity certificates (GECs) serving as the key mechanism to achieve these targets. The new legislation sets renewable power consumption targets for the steel, cement, polysilicon and electrolytic aluminium production sectors, as well as for data centres, with the average ratio across all provinces set at 38pc in 2025 and 39pc in 2026. Data centres have a unilateral target of 80pc, while targets for other key industries vary by province. Provincial governments will this year assess the ratios set for the electrolytic aluminium sector. Yunnan and Sichuan provinces have the highest targets, needing to source 70pc of their industrial power use from renewables, owing to the high proportion of hydropower in their generation mixes. Provinces with concentrated wind and solar power projects, such as Gansu and Guangxi, have targets above 50pc. In contrast, Fujian province has the lowest ratio at 25.2pc. The targets follow an announcement by the NEA in March aiming to boost China's renewable power use , although the latest document does not specify penalties for failing to meet goals. Demand for GECs will rise as companies look to meet the new targets, with GECs being the key mechanism to achieve these goals. Market prices have risen since the announcement — Argus assessed 2025 vintage wind/solar GECs at Yn7.80/MWh ($1.09/MWh) on 10 July, up by Yn0.30/MWh from earlier in the week but down slightly from the assessment last week. 2024 wind/solar GECs were assessed at Yn3.10/MWh, also slightly lower week on week. Power utility association CEC expects Chinese power demand to grow by 5-6pc on the year in 2025, the organisation said this week in its annual industry report . Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia’s Alfamart invests $1mn in UCO firm Noovoleum

25/07/11

Indonesia’s Alfamart invests $1mn in UCO firm Noovoleum

Singapore, 11 July (Argus) — Indonesian convenience store retail chain Alfamart said this week it has invested $1mn into Singapore-based used cooking oil (UCO) collector Noovoleum. Noovoleum — established in 2023 — automates UCO collection in Indonesian cities, including in Java, Sumatra and Bali, with their "UCOllect" boxes, of which there are 100. It collects about 100t of UCO a month, which is sold to domestic buyers such as UCO aggregators, said the company's chief investment officer Egis Rimkus. Citizens deposit UCO into the boxes, which have an in-built quality testing system. They will then receive cash via the "UCOllect" application, if the quality of the oil is accepted. The rate varies every month and is currently at 5,500 rupiah/litre ($0.34/litre). There are now boxes at 12 Alfamart outlets across Indonesia. The final use of the UCO is unconfirmed, but some could be processed into biodiesel, market participants said. Indonesia has halted exports of UCO since January. There have been recent attempts to export refined UCO under a HS code unaffected by the ban, but bulk volume trades have likely still not been successful, traders told Argus . Noovoleum is in advanced negotiations with possible partners in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore in light of Indonesia's export halt, with at least one partnership to be launched this year, Rimkus added. Noovoleum also placed "UCOllect" boxes at 10 gas stations belonging to state-owned Indonesian refiner Pertamina last December. This was part of a pilot project between the two. Pertamina has been trialling sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production since the second quarter of 2025 , but large-scale production of SAF and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) is expected only in 2029 , the refiner said. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cercarbono launches ELV recycling carbon methodology

25/07/11

Cercarbono launches ELV recycling carbon methodology

Bangkok, 11 July (Argus) — Global environmental certification standard company Cercarbono announced a world-first methodology for generating carbon credits from end-of-life vehicle (ELV) recycling at the Asia Climate Summit in Bangkok on 9 July. The methodology establishes the criteria for quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions from the recovery and recycling of post-consumer materials in formal sector facilities. The methodology covers only post-consumer ELV materials, including metals, plastics and glass, recovered as raw materials that match the quality of virgin materials, the methodology documents show. Projects must comply with Cercarbono's additionality guidelines. It calculates emission reductions as the baseline production from virgin raw materials minus the project's production from recycled materials. Projects must also follow all legal, environmental, labour, health and safety regulations, apply Cercarbono's Safeguarding Principles and report contributions to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) using the SDGtool assessment mechanism. Cercarbono and Mumbai-based Meta Materials Circular Market (MMCM) jointly developed the methodology. MMCM specialises in developing a digital ecosystem for the circular economy in the automotive industry. This innovative methodology will enable ELV recycling systems to benefit from carbon pricing, MMCM said. The initiative has the potential to unlock 10bn rupees ($116mn) in carbon funding over the next decade, MMCM chief executive Nitin Chitkara said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EIA raises US 2026 renewables outlook

Related news posts

DOE to halt wind transmission line: US senator

DOE to halt wind transmission line: US senator

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

China mandates renewable power use for industry

China mandates renewable power use for industry

Indonesia’s Alfamart invests $1mn in UCO firm Noovoleum

Indonesia’s Alfamart invests $1mn in UCO firm Noovoleum

Cercarbono launches ELV recycling carbon methodology

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