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EIA raises US 2026 renewables outlook

  • Market: Electricity, Emissions
  • 11/06/25

The US renewable energy fleet remains on track to provide an increasing portion of the country's total electricity over the next two years, even with some changes in the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest projections.

Renewable energy is on track to supply almost 1.1bn MWh in 2025 and 1.2bn MWh in 2026, enough to account for roughly 25pc and 27pc of all US generation in those years, EIA said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The 2025 estimate is less than 1pc lower than the agency's forecast in May, while the 2026 outlook is about 2pc higher.

Renewables in 2024 generated almost 948mn MWh, about 23pc of all US generation.

EIA attributes the higher share from renewables to projects coming on line through the end of 2026. The agency expects developers to add about 32,500MW of utility-scale solar to the grid this year, which would surpass the record high of 30,000MW in 2024. EIA anticipates about 7,700MW of new capacity from the wind sector this year. Wind capacity in 2024 expanded by about 5,100MW, its lowest showing since 2014.

The month-over-month change in the larger renewables outlook corresponds with higher expectations for wind and solar generation next year. Wind farms are now on track to provide about 506mn MWh in 2026, while utility-scale solar farms will generate around 350mn MWh, each about 2pc higher from May's outlook. If the solar projection bears out, it would surpass hydropower in 2025 as the second most prevalent form of renewable generation in the US.

In the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory, EIA expects non-hydropower renewable generators are on pace to supply nearly 179mn MWh in 2025, down by less than 1pc from last month's outlook. But the 216mn MWh now anticipated from the sector in 2026 marks an almost 10pc increase from May's predictions for the Texas grid.

EIA's lowered its predictions for non-hydropower renewables in the New York Independent System Operator's footprint by less than 1pc for 2025 and by 4pc for 2026, to 11.5mn MWh and just under 13mn MWh, respectively.

Revisions to other regional forecasts were minimal. EIA increased its expectations for non-hydropower renewables in the areas managed by the PJM Interconnection, ISO-New England and Midcontinent Independent System Operator by less than 1pc for both 2025 and 2026.

Renewable energy resources for EIA's purposes include conventional hydropower, wind, solar projects larger than 1MW, geothermal and certain forms of biomass.


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07/07/25

Multilateralism should steer climate finance: Brics

Multilateralism should steer climate finance: Brics

Sao Paulo, 7 July (Argus) — Developed countries must fully engage in climate finance to support developing countries trying to meet Paris agreement goals, top Brazilian officials said at the Brics summit held in Rio de Janeiro on 6-7 July. "One decade after the Paris agreement, [the world] lacks resources for a fair and planned transition," Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. "Developing countries will be the most affected by losses and damages, while they are also the ones that have fewer ways to fund mitigation and adaptation," Lula da Silva said during his keynote address Monday. The Brics summit discussed climate finance in anticipation of the UN Cop 30 climate summit , which will be also be held Brazil, in November. The group issued a declaration that reinforced its commitment to uphold multilateralism as a solution for climate actions, while it also emphasized developed countries' responsibility towards developing countries to financially enable just transition pathways and sustainable development aligned with the Paris agreement. The Cop 29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024 managed to reach an agreement to allocate $300bn/yr in resources for climate action. But delegates to the upcoming UN Cop 30 summit are targeting at least $1.3bn/yr in public and private funds to tackle climate change, focusing especially on countries that are already dealing with extreme weather conditions and lack financial resources to mitigate it. The Brics also announced a memorandum of understanding on the Brics Carbon Markets Partnership focused on capacity building and multinational cooperation to support climate strategies such as mitigation efforts and emergency resource mobilization. The declaration opposes unilateral protectionist measures, arguing that they "deliberately disrupt the global supply and production chains and distort competition." Climate justice, the fight against desertification, strengthened climate diplomacy and subsidies to environmental services were the main topics of discussion during the Brics summit, Brazil's environment minister Marina Silva said. Brazil will launch its own initiatives to promote climate finance in Cop 30. One program already launched is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) fund that aims to raise $125bn to preserve 1bn hectares of global tropical forests across 80 developing countries. Brics' development bank NDB will target 40pc of its investments to promote sustainable development, such as energy transition. The bank has approved $40bn in investments for clean energy, environment protection and water supply, it said last week. Brazil accounts for $6.4bn of total investments, gathering resources to 29 projects under climate actions, according to the institution. Brazil currently holds the presidency of the Brics, which also includes Russia, China, India and South Africa. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Iran are also members. Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Cuba, Uganda, Malaysia, Nigeria, Vietnam and Uzbekistan act as partner nations. Heated speech During his keynote address, Lula criticized the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as an institution that promotes unilateralism and stressed his support for reforming institutions of the UN to promote multilateralism and political equity for developing countries. He also mentioned that 65 of the biggest banks in the world committed to a $869bn investment to the fossil fuels sector last year. "Market incentives run contrary to sustainability," he said. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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NGOs pitch Amazon preservation funding to Cop 30


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04/07/25

NGOs pitch Amazon preservation funding to Cop 30

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Carbon – In Focus: Article 6 out of ETS in EU proposal


04/07/25
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04/07/25

Carbon – In Focus: Article 6 out of ETS in EU proposal

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UN Green Climate Fund approves projects worth $1.2bn


04/07/25
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04/07/25

UN Green Climate Fund approves projects worth $1.2bn

London, 4 July (Argus) — The UN's Green Climate Fund (GCF) this week approved $1.225bn in climate finance across 17 projects in 36 countries — the largest amount of finance it has agreed at a single meeting. The projects will provide funding to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation. The former refers to adjusting to the effects of climate change where possible and the latter to cutting emissions. The GCF also this week signed project agreements for nine of the 17 projects, as part of its bid to speed up implementation. The fund is this year "scaling up its activities in response to the global demands for climate finance", it said. Finance remains the overriding topic at multilateral climate talks. Brazil, the host of November's UN Cop 30 climate summit, will deliver a "roadmap" at the conference setting out how global climate finance could be increased to $1.3 trillion/yr. The GCF now has a portfolio of 314 projects, which total $18bn in GCF resources and $67bn including co-financing. The fund operates under the financial mechanism of UN climate body the UNFCCC and is mandated to invest half of its resources in mitigation and half in adaptation. It is the world's largest climate fund and was originally capitalised with $10.3bn in 2015. The fund's first replenishment, in 2019, gathered a further $10bn in pledges and its second replenishment reached around $13.6bn after funds committed at Cop summits in 2023 and 2024 . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IRA rollback to boost US natural gas demand


03/07/25
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03/07/25

IRA rollback to boost US natural gas demand

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