Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast by nearly 3mn b/d, driven by stronger growth in India and the Middle East and a shifting policy landscape that it says is reinforcing fossil fuels' role in the global energy mix.
"There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," Opec secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said in the group's latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), repeating a line he used in last year's edition and underscoring Opec's ongoing rejection of forecasts that see oil use peaking before 2030.
Opec argues that such forecasts underestimate demand growth in developing economies and overstate the pace of the energy transition.
The 2025 WOO lifts Opec's 2050 oil demand projection to 122.9mn b/d, from 120.1mn b/d in last year's WOO. Its 2040 forecast is revised up to 120mn b/d from 117.8mn b/d. The 2030 outlook is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, but the group sees a steeper rise in demand in the later years of the forecast.
While the overall trajectory remains consistent with last year's WOO, the new report places greater emphasis on policy recalibration in major economies. It highlights growing political resistance to decarbonisation targets — particularly in the US and parts of Europe — and said energy affordability and supply security are increasingly shaping national strategies.
These shifts, Opec suggests, are slowing the pace of energy transitions and supporting continued oil demand growth.
The 2025 WOO adopts a more cautious tone on electrification, citing infrastructure and cost challenges, and acknowledges the geopolitical effect of the US' second withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement — a development not covered in last year's edition.
India leads the pack
India makes the biggest single contribution to the long-term demand increase. Opec forecasts the country's oil use to more than double from 2024, to 13.7mn b/d by 2050.
Demand in China, on the other hand, rises in the medium term but flattens after 2035, reflecting slower economic growth and rising electric vehicle uptake.
OECD demand is projected by Opec to edge up to 46.6mn b/d by 2030 — from 45.7mn b/d in 2024 — before entering a steady decline. By 2050, it is put at 37.2mn b/d, led by sharp reductions in Europe's transport and residential sectors.
The sectoral breakdown remains broadly unchanged from last year. Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation account for most of the demand growth between 2025 and 2050. Oil use in road transport is forecast to rise by 5.3mn b/d, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.7mn b/d.
Supply to match demand
On the supply side, Opec projects global liquids output at 113.6mn b/d by 2030 and 123mn b/d by 2050.
It still expects US production to peak at just over 23mn b/d around 2030, before falling to 19.6mn b/d by mid-century. Non-Opec+ supply is seen plateauing in the 2030s, with Opec+ producers expected to meet most of the incremental demand, lifting their share of global supply to 52pc by 2050 from 48pc in 2024.
Opec estimates $18.2 trillion of investment will be needed to meet oil demand through to 2050, up from $17.4 trillion in the 2024 report. Of the total, $14.9 trillion — more than 80pc — is allocated to upstream. The group reiterated that underinvestment could threaten future supply security and market stability.
The report notes refining capacity is expected to keep pace with long-term demand growth, but warns of a potential short-term tightening later this decade as the rise in oil demand outpaces new capacity — particularly in Asia-Pacific.
