Prolonged supply disruptions triggered by the US–Iran war could flip the global oil market into a deficit, the IEA said on 5 March.
The Paris-based energy watchdog said it is monitoring the situation in the Middle East following the outbreak of war on 28 February, including the implications of any sustained disruption to energy flows through the strategic strait of Hormuz. It said the global oil market has been in a significant surplus since the start of 2025 and that it expected global supply to "far exceed demand in 2026". But it warned that a prolonged disruption to supply in the Mideast Gulf "could flip the market into a deficit".
Traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains all but paralysed after Iran told vessels at the start of the week that they were not permitted to transit. At least eight commercial ships have since been attacked in waters around the strait.
For context, the IEA said an average of 20mn b/d of crude and oil products transited the strait of Hormuz in 2025 — around 25pc of the world's seaborne oil trade. It noted that its member countries hold more than 1.2bn bl of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600mn bl of industry stocks held under government obligation, which can be released to the market if needed.
But the agency warned that any extended loss of output from Qatar's Ras Laffan facility could significantly exacerbate tightness in the global LNG market. Production was shut down there following an attack on 2 March. Ras Laffan produced 112bn m³ of LNG in 2025, along with 300,000 b/d of LPG and 180,000 b/d of condensate.
