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Trump escalates threats against Iran

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Freight, Natural gas
  • 11/06/26

President Donald Trump on Thursday stepped up threats against Tehran following two days of heavy clashes between the US and Iranian armed forces and of attacks on shipping in the Middle East.

"The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT," Trump said in a social media post.

The low intensity clashes between the US and Iranian militaries that have been underway since late May escalated into an exchange of strikes on 10-11 June that are more reminiscent of the active phase of war in March-April. The US has pounded Iran's defensive and — according to Tehran — civilian infrastructure near the strait of Hormuz and across Iran. Iran's military has responded with attacks on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Both the US and Iranian navies have attacked commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the strait of Hormuz, respectively.

Control of navigation through the critical Mideast Gulf waterway appears to be the cause of the latest flare up. Trump claimed on Wednesday that the US military had been running a clandestine operation to unblock Hormuz and that over 100mn bl and hundreds of vessels traveled the strait under the US military umbrella.

Iran, which also claimed to be directing limited traffic through the strait, said on Thursday that the strait of Hormuz is "closed" following overnight US strikes on Iran.

Trump, in his social media post on Thursday, went on to say that the US would soon take control of Iran's Kharg Island in the Mideast Gulf "and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela".

By Haik Gugarats

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11/06/26

Opec trims 2026 oil demand growth again

Opec trims 2026 oil demand growth again

London, 11 June (Argus) — Opec has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth for a second consecutive month. Demand is now projected to increase by 970,000 b/d in 2026, the group said today in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report ( MOMR), down from its previous forecast of 1.17mn b/d. Opec does not give explicit reasons for the downgrade. But a 60,000 b/d cut to Indian demand growth and a projected 40,000 b/d fall in Middle East consumption are among the contributors. Opec estimates Middle East demand in March — the first month of the Iran war — was about 500,000 b/d lower than a year earlier. The report makes few direct references to the conflict but flags "downside risk" to regional demand "from the ongoing oil market situation", which it said will depend on "the duration and severity of the disruption". Opec expects a strong rebound in global oil demand next year, supported by higher growth forecasts for China and India. It projects demand to rise by 1.73mn b/d in 2027, up from 1.54mn b/d in last month's MOMR. Opec kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast at 630,000 b/d for this year and 620,000 b/d for 2027. It does not forecast Opec+ production but publishes estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus . These show Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — fell by 185,000 b/d on the month to 33.13mn b/d in May. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US escalates attacks on Iran: Update 2

10/06/26
10/06/26

US escalates attacks on Iran: Update 2

Updates with details throughout, including the start of the attacks London, 10 June (Argus) — The US launched a new, broader wave of attacks on Iranian targets for the second consecutive day, prompting Tehran to say it will prevent all ships from passing through Hormuz in retaliation. US forces began launching additional "self-defense" strikes at targets across Iran at 5:15pm ET (21:15 GMT) on Wednesday, said the US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the Middle East-based US forces. Trump previewed the attack by saying earlier in the day that Iran will "have to pay the price" for taking too long to reach a peace deal, marking a clear shift in tone from recent weeks when he had talked up progress towards an agreement. The latest US attack followed an exchange of fire between the US and Iranian forces a day earlier, which involved US strikes against Iranian air defense targets around the strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. The flare up in the US-Iran conflict follows claims by Washington and Tehran that they are enabling the transit of tankers and other vessels through the strait of Hormuz, on their own terms. The Iranian military declared Hormuz closed to all navigation following the latest US attack, Iranian news agency Tasnim, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said in the early hours Thursday Tehran time. "We're going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard," Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday before Centcom launched the latest attack. "Based on the helicopter, I guess we have the right to do that," Trump said, referring to a US helicopter patrolling the strait of Hormuz that went down due to Iranian fire earlier this week . The attacks "that will happen tonight will be strong and they will be clear", defense secretary Pete Hegseth said before the strikes commenced. July Nymex WTI rose by $1.83/bl to $90.03/bl on Wednesday while August Ice Brent rose by $1.65/bl to $93.10/bl, following the flare up in the US-Iran confrontation. Trump earlier on Wednesday told Fox News that he "may order new strikes against the Iranian regime", potentially targeting "Iranian power plants and bridges", according to the news network's account of the interview, which the White House confirmed. Trump repeatedly threatened strikes against Iranian power and civilian infrastructure during the high intensity phase of the conflict in March and April. The US and Iran reach a ceasefire agreement on 8 April and extended it indefinitely later that month. But low-intensity fighting between US and Iranian forces has flared up repeatedly since late May. Trump's remarks mark a clear break from his recent messaging. Earlier this week, Trump said negotiations with Iran were ongoing and could yield results within days. Trump claimed for months that Iran's military capacity had been "obliterated", but he attributed Iran's apparent ability to target US military bases and equipment in the Middle East to Tehran's partial restoration of its defense capabilities. He added that recent US strikes "took out about 55pc of what they were even able to rebuild." By Haik Gugarats and James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Inpex applies to halt Australia's Ichthys LNG strike

10/06/26
10/06/26

Inpex applies to halt Australia's Ichthys LNG strike

Sydney, 10 June (Argus) — Japanese firm Inpex, operator of the 9.3mn t/yr Ichthys LNG project near Australia's northern city of Darwin, has applied to Australia's industrial arbiter the Fair Work Commission (FWC) to stop ongoing strikes at the project. The company has filed an application to the FWC seeking urgent orders to halt protected industrial action (PIA) at Ichthys sites, Inpex's senior vice-president Bill Townsend said on 10 June. Inpex is applying under section 424 of the Fair Work Act to suspend or terminate PIA, which cites the risks of "significant damage to the Australian economy or an important part of it" as a reason to end legally permissible strikes. The FWC has scheduled the hearing for 10am AWST (2am GMT) on 12 June. If Ichthys' production is taken off line by strikers, impacts to LNG buyers and domestic gas customers in the Northern Territory would occur, Inpex said. And this would be significant given current fuel supply constraints. Unions with members at Ichthys have notified Inpex of further PIA on 11-23 June and the firm is planning accordingly, Townsend said. Ichthys has loaded three cargoes since strikes commenced, Kpler data show, with the 174,000m³ Archy Vanguard presently berthed at the terminal. Ichthys impasse Items yet to be resolved under the bargaining talks include pay, allowances and career progression framework, Inpex said. Strikes began on 2 June at the project and have escalated to eight hours a day from an initial four hours, while bans on loading and unloading cargoes at the facility will start on 11 June, the Offshore Alliance union said on 8 June. Up to four cargoes could be lost as a result and replacements will be needed, traders told Argus this week. The escalated strike action in Australia would likely further tighten supply available to Asian importers and limit the supply buffer for the summer. Spot prices may face further upside as a result, especially as Qatari LNG supply remains off line. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Kuwait eyes regional pipeline tie-ups to bypass Hormuz

10/06/26
10/06/26

Kuwait eyes regional pipeline tie-ups to bypass Hormuz

Dubai, 10 June (Argus) — Kuwait's state-owned KPC is exploring potential tie-ups with fellow Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries Saudi Arabia and the UAE that could help move its crude and oil products in the event of any future disruptions to flows through the strait of Hormuz. Kuwait is totally dependent on the strait to export its crude and oil products, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that allow them to divert a share of their oil to ports outside the strait. That has helped them better navigate the more than three-month closure of Hormuz triggered by the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February. "We are in discussions with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and in the Emirates to look at how to expand the pipeline system that they have to accommodate Kuwaiti barrels coming up," KPC chief executive Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah told the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum. Saudi Arabia's 7mn b/d capacity East-West pipeline can carry crude from the Abqaiq oil processing complex in the Eastern Province to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea for export. The UAE's 1.7mn b/d Adcop pipeline carries crude from Habshan in Abu Dhabi to Fujairah, outside the strait of Hormuz. Sheikh Nawaf said the GCC typically has a mechanism that if one member cannot export oil for whatever reason, another with additional capacity could export on their behalf "and tally it up afterwards." But since "nobody has that capacity" given the situation in the strait, "instead, we are working with our brothers to look at pipeline capacity that can grow out," he said. He did not specify which projects Kuwait was studying with its neighbors. The KPC chief did caution, however, that an alternative export route would not totally insulate Kuwait, or any other country, from risk. Pipelines "are only as safe as the export facility at the end of it," Sheikh Nawaf said. "And you've seen how Iran has targeted both the Saudi and Emirati pipelines, and how those [attacks] have been effective, to a certain degree." Fujairah was targeted on five separate occasions between late February and early June, according to Argus tracking, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port was targeted once, and the East-West pipeline was targeted once , temporarily reducing throughput capacity by around 700,000 b/d. "A long pipeline needs compression. So, if you hit one node of that compression, you've got to rebuild that," said Sheikh Nawaf. "The easiest thing to rebuild or replace is the pipeline itself. But if you hit the compression facility, that takes more time." "And worse yet, is if you hit the export facility, because then, the pipeline is essentially useless," he said. "And we would have to work together with our partners [to recover]." Swift-ish recovery The disruption of oil flows through the strait of Hormuz forced Kuwait to scale back its crude production capacity to about 25pc of pre-conflict levels. "We took our production levels down at the beginning of the war, carefully and methodically, to what is only required for local consumption in Kuwait, because we could not export anything," Sheikh Nawaf said. Latest Argus estimates put Kuwaiti crude output at 580,000 b/d in May, compared with 2.59mn b/d in February. Many weeks of on-and-off diplomacy between Iran and the US has not led to clarity on when marine traffic could meaningfully recover, but Sheikh Nawaf said when it does Kuwait should be able to resume the majority of its production within less than a month. "We could get back to 80pc of our shut-in production [back] in less than a month, probably three weeks, because we have resilient reservoirs," he said. With around 2mn b/d of crude output shut-in, this would imply a return of 1.6mn b/d within weeks, lifting output to around 2.1mn b/d. Sheikh Nawaf suggested the shut-in of some reservoirs may have "benefited" them because it "allowed them to settle and recharge, essentially, the underground pressure." But he said the final 20pc "is always the hardest," which could take another "three to four months" to recover. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMO warns against strait of Hormuz transits

10/06/26
10/06/26

IMO warns against strait of Hormuz transits

Singapore, 10 June (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has warned the shipping industry against attempting to transit the strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that there is no commercial or operational justification for putting lives at risk in such a highly volatile region. "I am increasingly concerned by reports that vessels continue to attempt to transit the strait of Hormuz without any credible security guarantees," IMO secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez said in a 9 June statement, adding that risks to shipping in the Mideast Gulf stemming from the US-Iran war are well established and have already resulted in seafarers being killed, injured or detained. "My primary concern is for the safety and lives of the seafarers being placed in these situations," Dominguez said, warning that crews must not be exposed to conditions where risks are known, significant and clearly beyond mitigation. The situation in the Mideast Gulf remains highly volatile and, in the absence of reliable security assurances, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not exist, he added. "No commercial or operational consideration can justify exposing seafarers to such levels of danger. The protection of their lives must remain the overriding priority at all times," Dominguez said. The IMO head urged all stakeholders to act with the highest level of responsibility and repeated his call for all parties to refrain from any actions that place civilian seafarers' lives at risk. The warning from Dominguez follows recent remarks by US energy secretary Chris Wright at a 9 June forum in Washington, DC, that vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz is "rising very meaningfully" and "will continue to rise". While commercial traffic through the strait remains well below pre-war levels, ship-tracking data from Vortexa show 51 crossings in the first nine days of June, up from 26 in the same period in May but still down from 68 in the corresponding period of April. Meanwhile, attacks on commercial shipping in the Mideast Gulf persist, most recently involving an empty oil tanker whose 24 crew members had to be evacuated after a US aircraft fired a missile that disabled the vessel. The vessel, which was sailing towards an Iranian port, had "failed to comply with directions from US forces," US Central Command said. UK Maritime Trade Operations has recorded a total of 54 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Mideast Gulf, the strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman as of 8 June, since the conflict began on 28 February. By Sean Lui and Jared Bateman Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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