About 7mn b/d of crude and oil products are moving through the strait of Hormuz, US energy secretary Chris Wright said today, but other industry sources dispute that figure.
The 7mn b/d is "a rough average of where we are right now, and it's rising," Wright said at the Bloomberg Energy Security Executive Briefing in Houston, Texas, Friday. The number is about half of the 14mn b/d gap in supply caused by the de facto closing of the waterway since the start of the war, which also saw several million barrels a day diverted through regional pipelines, Wright said.
A very large crude carrier (VLCC) carries 2mn bl of crude so Wright's estimate is equivalent to about 3.5 VLCCs a day.
But oil major Chevron's chief executive Mike Wirth, who spoke later at the same event, raised doubts about Wright's 7mn b/d estimate.
"It's probably not quite that much," Wirth said. "There are ships that have been transiting out, typically with transponders off, typically at night, and with some support from the US military," he added.
The US' claims come at a time when visible commercial traffic through the waterway fell to some of its lowest levels since the conflict began. Mideast Gulf crude exports through the strait in June have averaged between 226,000-330,000 b/d, according to vessel tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa, but those figures likely undercount the total because vessels are turning their Automatic Identification System data while in the region to avoid attention.
Maritime consultancy Windward data shows such "dark" transits through Hormuz have averaged four vessels across all segments per day this week, although those figures could include ships other than crude and refined products tankers. Prior to the war's start an average of 130 ships passed through the strait daily.Mideast and crude flows were about 14mn-15mn b/d.
Mideast Gulf exports of energy, fertilizer and other commodities have been heavily limited since the start of the war in Iran, which has used the threat of attacks and naval mines to restrict traffic through the strait of Hormuz.
The US and Iran are closing in on a deal to end military hostilities, even as they spar over the terms of an agreement that President Donald Trump says could be signed soon.
But even if a deal is close to being signed, ship operators remain reluctant to send their tankers through the strait because of the high risk to seafarers, and will likely need to see sustained stability in the region for transits to meaningfully rebound to anything near pre-war levels. Since the war started, there have been 46 vessel attacks with 14 seafarer deaths, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration said it does not expect Hormuz traffic to recover to pre-war levels until at least early 2027.
Trump said on Wednesday that the US military has been facilitating the transit of oil tankers through the strait. The US Navy is not actively escorting vessels through the strait of Hormuz, but is helping to "coach" vessels through a corridor south of the typical strait of Hormuz traffic lanes that cuts through Omani territorial waters, according to marine insurer Skuld.
