India's coal-fired power generation reached a record high for July because a weak and uneven monsoon curbed hydropower output and supported cooling demand across the country.
Coal-fired generation rose by 13pc on the year to 114.7TWh in July, the highest level recorded for the month and 8.4pc above the previous July record of 105.8TWh set in 2024, according to Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data.
The record output came on the back of a delayed and patchy monsoon, which supported electricity demand while weighing on hydropower generation. Large hydropower output fell by 18pc on the year to 17.7TWh because below-normal rainfall reduced reservoir inflows, leaving coal plants to meet evening peak demand when solar generation declined.
Total generation excluding renewables rose by 7.3pc from a year earlier to 143.9TWh, 2.8pc above the CEA's monthly generation plan of 140TWh. Nuclear output increased by 19pc to 5.4TWh. Renewable generation, which is excluded from the CEA measure, is estimated to have increased to around 37.5TWh from 32.8TWh a year earlier, according to Argus analysis of the CEA data.
Demand for imported coal remained subdued despite the higher coal-burn because higher consumption was largely met by domestic supply. India's thermal coal imports likely fell for a seventh consecutive month in July, with Kpler estimating last month's imports at 11.3mn t, down from 12mn t a year earlier.
Utilities continued to draw on domestic inventories instead of seaborne cargoes. Coal stocks at thermal power plants fell to 38mn t in late July, down from 54.2mn t a year earlier, and 44.1mn t in June, according to CEA data. The overall inventories are supported by higher coal supplies from state-owned Coal India.
The outlook for coal demand will depend largely on monsoon performance over the coming months. The India Meteorological Department forecasts rainfall at 90pc of the long-period average, while a developing El Niño is expected to suppress precipitation and sustain cooling demand in coming months.
