Territorial risks cloud Mexico’s Centauro expansion

Spanish Market: Electricity, Natural gas
18/09/26

Territorial risks threaten to delay the second phase of Mexico's Centauro del Norte natural gas pipeline, designed to bring cheaper US Permian basin gas to northwestern power plants, while disparate metrics obscure its rate of progress.

Grupo Carso is building the $1.43bn, approximately 442km (275-mile) pipeline across Baja California and Sonora states. The project will supply two of state-owned utility CFE's newest combined-cycle power plants and add generation capacity in a region facing grid constraints.

The 72km first phase runs from an interconnection with Sempra's Rosarito pipeline near Mexicali to San Luis Rio Colorado, connecting the new plants to existing infrastructure. Mexicali's 641MW Gonzalez Ortega plant began commercial operations in May. CFE is also developing the 648MW San Luis Rio Colorado plant.

Construction of the 365km second phase is not scheduled to begin until early 2027, with completion targeted for December 2028, but market sources doubt that schedule can be met. The expansion would receive Permian gas primarily through the Samalayuca-Sasabe pipeline system and northern cross-border hubs connected to west Texas supplies.

The second phase presents territorial risks that engineering alone cannot resolve, Carlos Alberto Torres, a former official at state-owned Pemex, told Argus. These include its proximity to the El Pinacate y Gran Desierto de Altar biosphere reserve, consultations with Tohono O'odham communities along the Sonoyta-Caborca corridor, rights of way across agricultural land near Caborca and Altar, and security conditions affecting workers and contractors.

None has been confirmed as currently blocking the project, Torres said, but each could delay construction.

Uncertainty has been compounded by the different scopes used to report progress. The energy ministry's 15-year hydrocarbons development plan, released on 7 September, put overall project progress at 7.12pc.

Carso filings, meanwhile, showed progress rising from 47pc at the end of the first quarter to 77pc as of 30 June, likely referring only to the first phase. Those figures measure execution of a $47.85mn contract held by Carso subsidiary CICSA rather than the entire project. Carso's filings also vary in describing Centauro as either a two- or three-phase project.

Carso has not responded to Argus requests for clarification, while the energy ministry's plan provides little detail beyond funding.

"The question is not whether there is money, it is whether we are budgeting for territorial and regulatory risk with the same rigor as capex," Torres said.

By James Young

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18/09/26

Hungary ready to join European power balancing markets

London, 18 September (Argus) — All technical, market and regulatory preparations are in place for Hungary to join European automatic and manual frequency restoration reserve platforms Picasso and Mari on 1 October, transmission system operator (TSO) Mavir said on Friday. Integrating Hungary into Picasso and Mari is unlikely to affect wholesale electricity prices directly, market participants told Argus . But it could affect the volatility of imbalance prices and revenue for Hungarian battery energy storage system (Bess) operators. The cost of imbalance reflects the cost of matching power generation and demand in real time. Imbalance costs are incurred by producers and consumers when their demand or production is unexpectedly lower or higher than scheduled. Currently, Hungarian imbalance prices are set by bids from domestic balancing market participants only. TSOs participating in regional balancing systems input bids from their market and an algorithm activates balancing capacity — upward and downward revisions in demand and generation. The aim is to balance the system most efficiently across all markets, taking into account transmission capacity constraints. In the case of Picasso, the algorithm determines the cross-border marginal price (CBMP) every four seconds, which TSOs use to derive the 15-minute imbalance settlement costs they charge to users. Since neighbouring Slovenia joined Picasso in July, "imbalance prices are becoming quite hard to predict", market participants told Argus . The Slovenian imbalance settlement price exceeded €13,000/MWh during a region-wide heatwave on 7 July, according to market operator Borzen. In this case, a single settlement period could "pose a material financial threat" to smaller producers, especially "unstable" weather-dependent renewables. But TSOs have different methodologies to derive the imbalance settlement prices from the CBMP. Mavir has opted for a volume-weighted average rather than marginal pricing, to avoid a "four-second spike" setting the 15-minute settlement, market participants told Argus . Opening the balancing market to competition Hungary's entry into Picasso could expose the country's Bess operators to greater competition for balancing market revenue. Hungarian batteries will have to bid against Slovak Bess, which can bid lower as they pay lower grid fees, market participants told Argus . But potentially lower revenue from the balancing market after joining Picasso is unlikely to threaten Bess buildout. Developers are aware that the market will inevitably become saturated as more and more batteries come on line, market participants told Argus . Hungary has one of the most volatile intraday markets in the EU, making it an attractive market for Bess, which can profit from intra-day arbitrages. Hungary had 984MW of Bess capacity installed at the beginning of September, up from just 146MW at the end of last year. Operational Picasso members include most of western and central Europe including neighbouring Slovenia, Austria and Slovakia. Romania and Croatia are set to join in the second quarter of 2027, according to the latest Picasso ascension roadmap, published in February. By Jessamy Guest Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Germany, Spain, Portugal urge EU windfall tax options

18/09/26

Germany, Spain, Portugal urge EU windfall tax options

Brussels, 18 September (Argus) — The European Commission should present clear options for an excess profits tax on oil companies, German finance minister Lars Klingbeil said today, gaining support from some EU counterparts. France, however, cautioned against a one-size-fits-all approach. Klingbeil and his peers from Austria, Spain, Portugal, Poland and Italy called on the commission to outline possible windfall tax models ahead of a 9 October meeting of EU finance ministers in Luxembourg. "My clear expectation from the commission is to present models for an excess profit tax now," Klingbeil said at an informal ministerial meeting in Dublin. "There are also instruments we can use to steer the market. That includes a fuel price cap, but also the excess profit tax." French finance minister Roland Lescure said he was not opposed to a windfall tax but said national circumstances differ. "I'm willing to see what the commission is going to come up with," he said. "We also want to make sure that we don't put one-size-fits-all measures in place when national situations are different." European economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said the commission is not preparing an EU-wide proposal, and member states remain free to pursue national windfall tax measures. "There is a possibility, certainly for member states to proceed with this windfall profit taxation," Dombrovskis said, adding any measures should be temporary and targeted and should not increase fossil fuel demand. "When we are facing a supply shock, driving up demand will not help," he said. Klingbeil said Berlin is discussing reductions in fuel-related taxes, as flagged by German chancellor Friedrich Merz. "I want a clear, rapid signal at the gas pumps," Klingbeil said. "We are doing this as the federal government, but Europe must also contribute now to getting fuel prices down." Spanish economy minister Carlos Cuerpo also urged the commission to analyse energy-sector profits. "And if there are windfall profits, then we should go and tax them," Cuerpo said, arguing for a European approach so the costs are shared fairly. Portuguese economy minister Joaquim Jose Miranda said the commission has generally favoured national responses over a European solution. He said Portugal's automatic fuel tax reduction, introduced after the outbreak of war between Iran and the US, will remain in place for a "certain period". Austrian finance minister Markus Marterbauer called on the commission to examine energy-sector profit margins and earnings, and said he would be open to reintroducing a domestic cap on fuel margins. "Neither the state nor companies should profit from the high prices," he said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

European Commission approves €44mn grant for LV-LT wind

17/09/26

European Commission approves €44mn grant for LV-LT wind

London, 17 September (Argus) — The European Commission has approved a €44.4mn ($51mn) grant to finance the 210MW Utilitas Eleja-Joniski wind park on the Latvian-Lithuanian border. The farm will comprise 30 wind turbines with a capacity of up to 210MW, generating up to 680 GWh/yr. Baltic firm Utilitas Wind aims to commission the project by 28 February 2029, according to EU transparency platform CB RES. The wind farm has already passed through the planning stages but has not yet started applying for permits. The funds will support the first implementation phase of the project, including construction of "balance-of-plant infrastructure" in Latvia, grid connection works, and installation of wind turbines in Latvia, the commission said. Utilitas Wind aims to connect the turbines to both the Latvian and Lithuanian grids. By Lucas Waelbroeck Boix Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cameron LNG undergoing planned maintenance

16/09/26

Cameron LNG undergoing planned maintenance

Houston, 16 September (Argus) — Cameron LNG is carrying out planned maintenance on one of three liquefaction trains at its 15mn t/yr (2bn ft³/d) export terminal in southwest Louisiana, a company spokesperson told Argus on Wednesday. The company declined to comment on how long the maintenance is intended to last. Feedgas nominations to Cameron LNG fell to 1.3bn ft³ on Wednesday from 1.4bn ft³ on Tuesday and an average of 1.9bn ft³/d over the previous 30 days, pipeline data show ( see chart ). Cameron is the second US LNG export terminal to schedule maintenance during the September-October shoulder season. Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 5.75mn t/yr Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland plans about two weeks of work beginning on 19 September. This comes with the LNG market constrained by the de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz, which has effectively shut in about 20pc of global supply since the US-Iran war began in late February. But Cameron LNG said it does not anticipate any disruptions to its customers. France's TotalEnergies and Japanese trading firms Mitsubishi and Mitsui are Cameron LNG's offtakers, each with a 16.6pc stake in the project. Sempra Infrastructure holds the remaining 50.2pc stake and operates the terminal. No ships were docked at Cameron LNG on Wednesday afternoon. But the Mitsui-operated 174,000m³ Marvel Phoenix departed with a 72,700t cargo earlier in the day, Kpler ship-tracking data show. The terminal has three LNG storage tanks, each with capacity of about 72,000t, giving Sempra Infrastructure flexibility to minimize loading disruptions during maintenance. Cameron LNG most recently carried out maintenance on one of its trains throughout May, when feedgas flows averaged 1.5bn ft³/d. The terminal exported 870,000t of LNG that month, down from an average of 1.2mn t/month in the previous three months. The decline was equivalent to about 1.1 fewer cargoes per week, assuming a standard cargo size of 72,000. Meanwhile, work on Cove Point LNG's pipeline system is expected to begin on 19 September, capping feedgas at 20mn ft³/d through 24 September and at 30mn ft³/d from 25 September to 2 October. The outage could remove another three cargoes from the market during that span. By Tray Swanson Feedgas flows to Cameron LNG bn ft³/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Pa. study finds PJM short on generation

16/09/26

Pa. study finds PJM short on generation

Houston, 16 September (Argus) — Grid operator PJM Interconnection is projected to miss its reliability planning standard through 2030 even with the new power generation it expects to add, because data-center driven electricity demand is growing faster than supply, according to a Pennsylvania study. The study's base-case outlook, which uses PJM's 2026 load forecast and assumes resource supply gradually improves through 2040, found the grid operator fails to meet its reliability standard from 2027-30 in the absence of new policies. The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) said it commissioned the study to understand how rapid load growth, generator retirements and delays in new resource development could affect reliability across Pennsylvania and the broader PJM region, which covers 13 states the District of Columbia, making it the biggest grid operator in the US. "Across all scenarios, new in-state generation additions do not keep pace with the growth of in-state load," the report said. The system remains "tightly constrained" even as new resources are added, with the model selecting most generation technologies up to their assumed build limits, the report said. Under the study's base-case scenario, PJM's gas combined-cycle fleet increases to 71.8GW in 2030 from 61.4GW in 2025, while solar capacity rises to 56.1GW from 14.7GW. Onshore wind capacity grows to 21GW from 11GW and battery storage expands to 7.9GW from 0.5GW. Pennsylvania policymakers are increasingly focused on how data center growth effects electricity prices and reliability. Governor Josh Shapiro (D) has lobbied his counterparts to take a more active role in shaping PJM's policies as it grapples with unprecedented load-growth projections. Shapiro recently imposed new requirements on data center development to ensure new large-load customers pay for the infrastructure needed to serve them and do not shift costs to existing ratepayers. The report projects Pennsylvania will remain PJM's largest generation state, but its share of regional generating capacity shrinks over time as more resources are added in states such as Virginia and Ohio. Pennsylvania's share was 23pc in 2025 and is projected to fall to 20-21pc by 2030 and 14-17pc by 2040. Through 2030, most new generation added in Pennsylvania consists of solar and battery storage. By 2040, the state's gas combined-cycle fleet rises to 32GW from 20GW in 2025, while coal capacity falls to about 1GW from 4.6GW. Across all modeled scenarios, the study projects 14-29GW of coal retirements across PJM by 2040 as plants reach the end of their useful lives and face competition from more economic resources. The study did not evaluate specific solutions to the projected reliability shortfall, including whether extending the lives of existing coal plants or adding capacity beyond the modeled resource mix would improve reliability outcomes. Thermal generators were assumed to retire on or before their scheduled retirement dates, with additional retirements based on modeled economics, PUC officials said in response to questions from Argus . By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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