Cop 30 fossil fuel roadmap backs existing momentum

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
04/11/26

Brazil's international roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels sets the scene for productive informal talks on the topic at the UN Cop 31 climate conference in Antalya next week, after discussions among voluntary countries gathered pace this year.

Brazil presented its global roadmap this week — a blueprint for countries to act at supply and demand levels to cut dependency on oil, gas and coal and reduce planet-warming emissions — having pledged to do so when it hosted Cop 30.

Brazil hopes this will inspire more countries to publish roadmaps, after a year of discussions on the fossil fuel transition among so-called coalitions of the willing, boosted by the crisis in the Middle East.

France, Germany and the Netherlands have published roadmaps and more could do so at Cop 31, according to Dutch climate minister Stientje van Veldhoven. Three of nearly 200 parties to the Paris agreement is small, but sends a signal on fossil fuel demand, observers said. Some said the roadmaps could have been more ambitious, however, considering the world is on course to exceed the accord's temperature goal.

Fossil fuel emissions accounted for 74pc of carbon emissions in 2025, mostly from power generation, industry and transport, according to EU data. Cutting fossil fuel emissions is key to meet the 1.5°C temperature limit pursued by the Paris agreement and reinforced at Cop 28 in Dubai. For countries particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, keeping to the goal is an imperative, and Pacific island states have begun talks on a roadmap.

Fossil fuel producer talks

No roadmaps have been published by major fossil fuel producing countries, although some appear in the making.

Brazil said it would release one this year, and Norway is due to publish its sustainable transition strategy in 2027, saying "the work must be viewed in the light of prospects for lower petroleum activity in the decades ahead". The UK government is discussing how to represent what it has in place and could constitute a roadmap, according to UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte.

Producers are increasingly part of the discussion. The UK and Norway, along with Canada, Angola, Mexico, Brazil, Senegal and Australia, were among 60 countries gathered at the first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, in Santa Marta, Colombia, in May. These represented about 20pc of global oil production and a third of oil consumption, according to the organisers.

The effects of the US-Iran war have increased the focus on domestic renewable energy in importing countries, and in producing countries whose revenue depend on energy commodities.

The energy crisis resulting from the war could "act as an accelerator of the energy transition", TotalEnergies said this week.

Some nations' economic dependency on fossil fuels needs to be recognised in transition discussions, Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni said, echoing the views of many developing fossil fuel producers in Latin America and Africa, which have called on developed nations to lead the way.

Mexico said this year that transitioning requires an orderly and gradual approach, because of the implications on country's economy and employment. The Cop 30 fossil fuel transition roadmap and discussions throughout this year have started to address this and the need for countries to work on different timelines.

Countries can begin acting regardless of their starting point, but the transition requires careful co-ordination.

Importer-producer

The Cop 30 presidency said in its roadmap that fossil fuel production needs to decline alongside demand, highlighting the importance of co-operation between producing and importing countries in future planning.

In July, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (Boga), an international alliance launched at Cop 26 and spearheaded by Denmark and Costa Rica, convened a high-level dialogue on responses to the fossil fuel crisis. It included EU countries, fossil fuel producer Ghana and Sierra Leone where Shell has an exploration agreement for several offshore oil blocks. Discussions touched on how "producer-consumer co-ordination" could build resilience. The meeting followed Boga's closed-door major producer dialogue with the EU where producer-consumer co-ordination was also a topic.

Boga also works through a $20mn fund with oil and gas producers Brazil, Colombia, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Chad and Trinidad and Tobago on transition planning and economic diversification and has opened another call for interest with the NDC partnership aimed at fossil fuel producers.

"Consumer-producer" discussions were also at the heart of a dialogue organised by the UK and Brazil after the Santa Marta conference. The event explored how to mobilise co-ordinated international support for developing fossil fuel-producing countries, building on the Cop 30 presidency roadmap work.

Developing countries want to work on "the complicated elements of the transition" such as managing fossil fuel assets as demand declines, according to the UK's Kyte.

By Caroline Varin

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04/11/26

UK finance helped avoid or cut 201mn t emissions: Govt

London, 4 November (Argus) — UK climate finance in 2011-26 is estimated to have reduced or avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 201mn t, the government said today. The UK government classes action such as replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and reducing deforestation towards its goal to curb GHG emissions. It noted that the benefits will continue after a programme closes, and "the expected total lifetime results are much higher than the results achieved so far". The finance directly supported 159mn people to adapt to the effects of climate change, and installed almost 6GW of clean energy capacity over the same timeframe, government estimates show. A cumulative total of 92.7mn people had improved access to clean energy over the period, the government added. The UK government committed to deliver £11.6bn ($15.6bn) in international climate finance over the financial years 2021-22 to 2025-26. The government previously confirmed it had met this pledge, as well as previous ones of £3.9bn over 2011-12 to 2015-16 and £5.8bn over 2016-17 to 2020-21. It did not today break down its own spending over the period, but instead set out the estimated results from it. The UK parliament's cross-party International Development Committee in September called for the government to publish disaggregated and "more granular data" on its international climate finance spending. The UK government's international climate finance programme helped to mobilise £12.6bn in "non-UK government public sources" for climate action in 2011-26, and £13.4bn in private finance, it said today. Public sources include other governments, UN agencies and multilateral or regional development banks, the UK said. Of the total, 60pc went to mitigation — cutting emissions — and 8pc to adaptation. The remainder covered both mitigation and adaptation, it added. The private finance includes funds from banks — excluding development banks — private companies, non-governmental organisations and the voluntary carbon credit market, the UK said. Of the reported use, 76pc was for mitigation and 18pc was for both mitigation and adaptation. The government's new strategy aims to spur greater amounts of private finance for international climate action. The UN Cop 31 climate summit begins next week in Antalya, Turkey. Cop negotiations often return to the topic of finance, for developing countries to implement energy transitions and ensure resilience to the effects of climate change. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Adaptation too slow as world set to breach 1.5°C: Unep

04/11/26

Adaptation too slow as world set to breach 1.5°C: Unep

London, 4 November (Argus) — Global adaptation, or adjusting to the effects of climate change where possible, is not moving quickly enough as the world is set to breach a key climate target in the next few years, a report from the UN Environment Programme (Unep) found today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. But an overshoot of the 1.5°C target is "inevitable", Unep said in September , as mitigation — action to cut emissions — has not been sufficient. "Limiting the magnitude and duration of overshoot through rapid and ambitious mitigation, while managing its consequences through accelerated adaptation, is therefore increasingly urgent", Unep said today. "The world is not ready to adapt to current climactic conditions, never mind what overshoot of 1.5°C will bring", Unep executive director Inger Andersen said. Finance, particularly for developing countries to adapt, is inadequate, the report found. International public adaptation finance flows from developed to developing countries was between $28.2bn and $31.7bn in 2024, depending on estimates from Unep and the OECD, respectively. Growth in adaptation finance flows from developed to developing nations is flattening, but support between developing countries is increasing, the report noted. It also flagged that multilateral development banks are likely to have increased their financing significantly in 2025, although this may be offset by a drop in official development assistance from many countries. Adaptation finance is far below the estimated requirement of $305bn/yr by 2035, Unep said. It reached this estimate by assessing countries' climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris agreement — and national adaptation plans (NAPs), and by modelling. Countries at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November 2025 called for efforts to at least treble adaptation finance by 2035 . The baseline was unclear, but depending whether this is based on current finance flows or an earlier pact, adaptation finance could reach $85bn-120bn annually, Unep said. This adjusted for inflation would meet only between 20-29pc of adaptation finance needs in 2035, the report found. The world has already warmed by 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels. Much of Europe experienced extreme heat earlier this year , affecting transport, power supply and agriculture. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran official downplays talk of peace deal

03/11/26

Iran official downplays talk of peace deal

Washington, 3 November (Argus) — Tehran is not satisfied with recent diplomatic feelers from the US and will insist its conditions be met before allowing freedom of navigation through the strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday. The latest US diplomatic overture "was not convincing" and the US "must fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them", Iran's supreme national security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said in a social media post. "Only in this case will the strait of Hormuz be reopened." Rezaei last week received a diplomatic missive from US vice president JD Vance. Qatari and other mediators subsequently enabled an exchange of messages between Washington and Tehran. Such indirect dialogue has gone on even during a period of intense hostilities between the US and Iran. But US president Donald Trump attributed a drop in crude prices on Monday to progress in talks with Iran. The seven conditions that Rezaei's post referenced effectively restate, and demand implementation of, the concessions Trump agreed to in June under a short-lived memorandum of understanding with Iran. Tehran, in particular, is eyeing repatriation of frozen Iranian assets in foreign banks, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and broad sanctions relief. The Trump administration appears to believe that those concessions are no longer plausible. The US naval blockade has choked off Iran's crude exports since mid-July. A US military-assisted campaign has increased the flow of oil through the strait of Hormuz. But the US-sponsored maritime operation has significantly increased freight and insurance costs for the tankers that do make it to the Gulf of Oman without being hit by Iran. 'This isn't really war' Trump for weeks has said that the US and Iran would move quickly to conclude a new agreement following Tuesday's midterm congressional elections or, alternatively, that the US would resume direct strikes against Iran. Trump leaned into both messages in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday morning, and also told Fox News that the US military on Monday evening carried out limited air strikes against an air defense installation on Iran's Qeshm Island in the strait of Hormuz. "They built an anti-aircraft facility," Trump said. "It took them about two months. We watched it get built. As soon as it was completed, we hit it." But Trump added that "this isn't really war". The US "can finish them off, or we can be nice and let thousands of people live that would get killed in a war". Tehran, which in the past week has been threatening a disproportionate response to any US strike, has not confirmed any hits on its soil. Iran's state news agency Fars reported that "the sound of several explosions was heard on Qeshm" on Monday, without giving further details. Tehran also claimed to have downed two US military drones flying over Hormuz on Monday. The US Central Command, which oversees Middle East-based US forces, has not commented on either the US strikes or the Iranian claims. The war in the Middle East, and the corresponding spike in prices for fuel and fertilizer, has created a bruising political environment for Republicans heading into the midterm elections on Tuesday, where Democrats are widely expected to win control of at least one chamber of the US Congress. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New York election unlikely to boost climate plans

03/11/26

New York election unlikely to boost climate plans

Houston, 3 November (Argus) — New York governor Kathy Hochul (D) appears poised to win another term in Tuesday's election, but persisting concerns over rising energy prices and affordability are likely to keep any ambitious climate policy goals, such as a statewide cap-and-invest program, in the backseat. Hochul is on track to defeat her opponent, Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman (R), and Democrats are likely to retain control of the state legislature. The latest poll of just over 800 likely voters from the Siena Research Institute shows 54pc support for the governor compared with just 40pc for Blakeman. When Hochul first took office in 2021, she presided over the implementation of the state's landmark 2019 climate law, which set ambitious goals for the state. Her administration took steps to lessen New York's use of natural gas, promote clean energy and develop a state-specific, economy-wide cap-and-invest program to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But Hochul's policy calculus has changed significantly since. Rising electricity demand as a result of growing data center capacity, federal cuts to clean energy incentives, a slew of tariffs as well as the federal administration's relentless attacks on offshore wind have raised concerns over the feasibility of enacting more aggressive policies. Hochul's administration delayed the rollout of the cap-and-invest program, leading to a lawsuit from environmental groups. A state court sided with the groups last year and required the release of carbon market regulations by February this year. But during budget negotiations with lawmakers earlier this year, Hochul expressed doubts about New York's ability to meet its climate goals, citing higher costs and a hostile federal administration. Those negotiations culminated in a deal that delayed the state's interim emissions goal and made moot the lower court order by pushing back the release of carbon market regulations to 2028. New York also requires utilities to use resources such as wind and solar for 70pc of their retail sales by 2030. But state estimates suggest the target may not be achieved until 2036 at the earliest. For his part, Blakeman has blamed Hochul for high energy costs and has promised to "unleash" the state's fossil fuel reserves. But if Blakeman wins, he will likely have to contend with a Democratic legislature. Hot ‘n cold Even continued Democratic control of the legislature is likely to do little to ensure a return to past climate plans. "There's so much emphasis on affordability that I don't anticipate that [Hochul] is going to double down on climate targets per se for New York state," said Carolyn Kissane, founding director of the SPS Global Energy, Climate and Sustainability Lab at New York University. New York is also battling President Donald Trump. A federal court recently sided with the federal administration and struck down the state's climate "superfund" law, which had sought to impose fees on oil, natural gas and coal companies for the climate-related costs from their GHG emissions. The state is appealing the ruling. In addition, stronger electricity demand has contributed to higher costs. That, along with the volatility in global energy markets resulting from the US-Iran war, has made it more difficult to decarbonize. "Whether it's solar or wind or batteries, some of that is just going to go to meeting that new demand rather than displacing any carbon intensive energy sources," said Noah Kaufman, senior research scholar at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy. New York has long had some of the highest electricity prices in the country, in part because of the state's limited natural gas infrastructure, according to Kaufman. Hochul has reversed her reluctance to promote natural gas in light of grid reliability concerns . The governor revived a natural gas pipeline last year and embraced an "all-of-the-above" approach for energy during her campaign this year. Hochul will likely "take a more pragmatic" approach moving forward, according to Kissane. "She'll try to protect the clean energy, new generation that is coming on line, such as the offshore wind, and at the same time, recognize that she really can't pull back on natural gas," she said. Hochul has promoted new solar and battery storage , and funneled $2bn towards climate and energy efficiency programs over the last two years. In addition, she was the first governor to issue a one-year moratorium on data center development. Still, Hochul will have to continue to balance affordability and policy goals during her next term. It remains to be seen whether "there is appetite for some sort of compromise" to support more infrastructure in the near term and gradually phase out natural gas to enable the state to meet its emissions goals, Kaufman said. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil presents global fossil fuel, forest roadmaps

03/11/26

Brazil presents global fossil fuel, forest roadmaps

Edinburgh, 3 November (Argus) — Brazil's UN Cop 30 presidency today presented two international roadmaps intended to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation, offering practical pathways for countries with different starting points. The roadmaps propose short-term measures that countries could implement to accelerate action through to 2033, with key UN Cop climate summits serving as milestones. The presidency pledged during last year's summit in Belem to develop the roadmaps after countries failed to agree on the two issues. It reiterated today that the roadmaps will not be negotiated at Cop 31 in Antalya this year, but said the "political space for a frank conversation... should stay open". The fossil fuel roadmap draws on 267 contributions, including 21 submissions representing 115 parties to the Paris climate agreement. It breaks the transition into a series of actionable steps, beginning with a voluntary self-assessment tool through which countries can evaluate their "unique circumstances, structural conditions, exposure to fossil fuel dependence and transition capacity". The assessment would examine countries' exposure to fossil fuels and their ability to manage the transition across three themes — energy demand, energy supply and the broader economy. The aim is to help countries identify their respective profiles and existing strengths, the presidency said. The second step focuses on implementation, offering possible actions for countries with similar demand and supply profiles. Countries can begin acting regardless of their starting point, although the transition will require careful co-ordination, the presidency said. "Economies with high exposure and limited capacity have most to gain from avoiding new lock-in and stranded assets as their demand for energy services grows," the roadmap report said. "Economies with strong capacity have the means to move first." The presidency proposes advancing the roadmap through a "Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels" agenda organised around three milestones linked to future global stocktakes (GSTs), which assess progress towards the goals of the 2015 Paris accord. Efforts should focus on institutions and long-term policy signals until 2028, when the second GST begins, the presidency said. The focus would shift towards transforming energy systems in 2028-30, when the collective goals agreed at Cop 28 are due and countries submit their next climate plans. The presidency recommends shifting greater attention to the supply side and scaling up solutions in 2031-33, alongside the third GST. Asked how Brazil intends to link the roadmap to the informal action agenda, a parallel process conducted alongside formal Cop negotiations, Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni told Argus that the work began under that agenda last year. The presidency will release another report at Cop 31 detailing progress under the action agenda, she said. One role of the roadmap is to ensure countries do not lose sight of the Cop 28 consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels and to highlight elements already in place to advance that commitment, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said. The roadmap also serves as an initial contribution to the next GST process, he said. The Cop 30 presidency also released a roadmap for stepping up efforts to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. It identifies areas for action under national strategies — including conservation, sustainable forest management, agroforestry and the bioeconomy, as well as measures to combat deforestation and forest degradation. The presidency identified finance as one of the largest implementation gaps, as most tropical forests are in developing countries. Domestic public budgets accounted for 88.3pc of recorded forest finance in 2023, while international public finance provided only 3.4pc, it said. The forest roadmap sets out international actions and indicative milestones through to 2030. By Caroline Varin and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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