• 14 de agosto de 2024
  • Market: Polymers, Chemicals

In recent years, the recycled plastics market is shifting from low-cost alternatives to high-quality recycling promoted by environmental protection and carbon reduction. Argus interviewed Guo Jiawan, chairman of Guangxi Guolong, and Arnold Wang, founder of Shichai Environment, on the following topics before the Second International Rigid Polyolefin Recycling Summit hosted by Shichai Environment:

  • Prospects of China’s recycled plastics exports
  • Food contact applications of recycled plastics
  • EU’s “mirror-clause” in the Single Use Plastics Directive, etc

How much demand do you see from export markets for your products, what are the key export markets, and for which products and end-use applications (rPET, rHDPE, rPP, Packaging grades)?

Guo: The application of recycled plastics in the packaging market is mainly driven by the demand from international brands. Large brands use environmentally friendly recycled products as a way to actively fulfill their social responsibility and promote the recycling and utilization of waste plastics through their actions. In the Chinese market, international brands have been testing and trialing small batches of recycled plastics over the past two years. In the Southeast Asia, Hong Kong and Macau markets, they have begun to introduce recycled plastic packaging products. Many international brands also have production sites in China, and their export products have started to use recycled plastics. In the personal care sector, they primarily use rHDPE and rPP, while in food packaging, rPET is the main material, all of which must meet food-grade requirements and obtain FDA or EFSA certification.


Most participants are focusing on food contact recycled materials, but China currently does not allow recyclates to be used in food-contact applications. In such a situation, how should Chinese recyclers develop their business? Would pyrolysis be an appropriate approach for Chinese recyclers to look towards?

Wang: Currently, the main applications for high-value products from Chinese PET recycling enterprises are textile fibers, industrial yarns, and other non-food grade uses. Food-grade rPET products can also meet specific needs in personal care products, and other food-grade rPET supplies include exports to Hong Kong and overseas markets. 
Pyrolysis is still in the exploratory stage in China, and several commercial projects have been announced this year, but their operation will take some time and still requires market validation. On August 27-28 this year, we will have an International Rigid Polyolefin Recycling Summit in Shanghai, which will include topics related to chemical recycling and pyrolysis. Those who are interested are welcome to follow and participate.


The EU is mulling a “mirror-clause” in the Single Use Plastics Directive which would mean that recyclers from outside the EU that are sending material to the EU to count towards our recycled content targets will be held to the same feedstock, process and environmental targets as European recyclers. How do you expect this to develop and do you see any impact on your business?


Guo: [Complying with EU standards] is not difficult for Guolong Recycled Plastics, because the process technology, production equipment and environmental standards of Guolong are the same as those in Europe, as is the the use of PCR materials. 

Over the past few years, Guolong have passed various tests, factory inspections, and production environment assessments required by more than twenty international brand companies, and safely met their requirements. But, if the EU pushes this policy, it might implement certification permits through factory inspections under a case-by-case basis, which might impose certain restrictions on many other recycling enterprises in China.


What is Guolong's future development target, and does Guolong plan to invest in chemical recycling in the near future?
 
Guo: After ten years of development, Guolong has now established sizeable capacity for producing recyclates for a range of different end-uses (see table). We have successfully implemented a business model that spans the entire industrial chain, encompassing both food-grade and industrial-grade products. Currently the company has no concrete expansion plans for the future. 

 Recycling type  Capacity (t/yr)
 Food-grade rPET    60,000
  Food-grade rHDPE   20,000
 Food-grade rPP   20,000
 Pipe grade recyclates   80,000
 Industrial grade  rHDPE   20,000


Do you expect to see a market start to develop for recyclates into the food packaging market in China in the near future (i.e. a change of regulation) and what other regulatory changes in China do you expect that could support the recycling industry?

Wang: China is currently researching the safety of using recycled materials in packaging applications, which includes not only recycled plastics but also recycled metals, such as whether recycled aluminum can be used for cans. The local market is also awaiting the issuance of relevant documents.

Presently, the government has introduced various policies such as the "trade-in" policy and the reverse invoicing policy, which have all promoted the expansion of the recycling industry. These allow recyclers to issue invoices to their waste suppliers (rather than the other way around), to enable recyclers to claim a VAT deduction even when the waste seller they are working with is too small to issue invoices. Government policy may also be directed towards waste classification in the future, this could be the direction for future government policy. 

Of course, establishing a complete recycling system requires more implementation strategies and more time to explore development paths and undertake construction. 

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22/12/25

Viewpoint: BZ demand to see little change in 2026

Viewpoint: BZ demand to see little change in 2026

Houston, 22 December (Argus) — US benzene (BZ) demand is expected to remain steady in the first quarter of 2026 because of low operating rates for BZ derivatives, sources said. Operating rates for BZ derivatives were low in 2025 because of weak demand and a busy turnaround season, with several styrene monomer (SM), cumene and phenol producers conducting turnarounds. At least one US Gulf coast styrene producer is expected to perform a turnaround in the first quarter that is estimated to run 20-30 days, another source said. Ethylbenzene (EB) demand into gasoline blending may finally see its seasonal lull, as high-octane, low-Reid vapor pressure (RVP) blendstocks are typically in low demand from October-March, when US gasoline specifications allow high-RVP blendstocks like butane to enter the blend pool. In late 2025, EB demand remained steady into gasoline blending because of strong demand for high-octane aromatic blendstocks to offset low-octane light naphtha, which was blended into the gasoline pool to keep up with the demand for US gasoline exports. But, with expensive feedstock BZ heading into 2026, EBSM producers cannot sell EB above breakeven levels, which caused EBSM producers to reduce operating rates, sources said. When spot BZ reaches a premium to feedstock reformate prices, EB becomes a less competitive blendstock because of its production cost ( see chart ). This disposition of ethylbenzene's value as a blendstock opens competition for other aromatic blendstocks like toluene and mixed xylenes to enter the gasoline pool. North American EBSM operating rates are expected to remain at 48-60pc in early 2026, according to a generic Argus model with operating rates informed by market participants. SM export demand is anticipated to remain limited. The arbitrage to Europe is closed for December-loading cargoes to arrive in January, Argus data show. Buying interest could emerge from Latin America, which typically takes 20,000-25,000 metric tonnes (t) of SM from North America every two or three months, depending on polystyrene (PS) production rates. Cumene demand is expected to remain flat in 2026 on steady, though sluggish, downstream demand for phenol and acetone, which have big shares in the construction, automobile, appliances and resin industries. A source said sellers are taking customers' spending and borrowing power into deeper consideration when exploring spot and new contract opportunities to mitigate selling risk. Phenol is anticipated to see little fundamental change in 2026, sources said. There are few expected phenol turnarounds for maintenance in the first half of the year, and sources expect consumption to remain comparable to 2025. New housing permits declined in 2025 compared to 2024, according to US Census Bureau data, which led to fewer homes being built and less phenol demand. About half of all phenol produced in the US goes into the construction sector. Phenol and cyclohexane demand from the automotive industry may decline in 2026 on lower automobile manufacturing leading into the new year. Domestic automobile production trailed lower throughout 2025 as many producers were operating below full output rates. In August, US automobile production dipped below 100,000 units for the first time since January, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Before January, monthly domestic automobile production last dipped below 100,000 units in September 2021. The automotive industry makes up nearly 22pc of phenol consumption. Benzene supply is expected to remain low in 2026 on reduced US production and fewer imports because of US tariff policies that add costs for traders. On production, some market participants expect selective toluene disproportionation (STDP) unit operating rates to remain low in 2026 because BZ prices rose in late 2025 on tight supply, not strong demand, sources said. Though STDP margins look healthy on paper moving into 2026, if STDP operators raise production rates, the higher BZ supply would depress prices and margins to the point where STDP operators decide to turn run rates down again or idle their units, another source said. The US is historically in a net BZ deficit and usually relies on BZ imports to add supply when BZ production lags demand. With US tariff policies adding costs to those imports, shipments of BZ from Europe and Asia have largely declined. Market participants said they expect this trend to continue in 2026 without changes to US tariff policy. By Jake Caldwell Ethylbenzene economics vs Benzene and Reformate $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US housing to stymie chlor-vinyl in 1H 2026


22/12/25
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22/12/25

Viewpoint: US housing to stymie chlor-vinyl in 1H 2026

Houston, 22 December (Argus) — An anemic US housing market is expected to continue restraining domestic demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and chlor-alkali during the first half of 2026, prompting US producers to push more PVC into the export market. US Federal Reserve policymakers have cut their target interest rate three times since September, but market participants do not expect lower borrowing rates to significantly boost demand for housing — a major PVC derivative market — until the peak of construction season next summer at the earliest. To mitigate further price erosion and excess inventories, producers are expected to increase export sales, especially to India. PVC producers expect the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2026 to help stimulate the domestic housing market, which was listless this year on rising prices and elevated mortgage rates. But producers may be disappointed, as Fed policy makers have penciled in just one quarter-point rate cut for next year. Lower Fed target rates can influence borrowing costs for mortgages, business loans, and other expenditures in the homebuilding sector. Interest rates for a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage have remained above 6pc since September 2022, contributing to housing affordability issues that stretch back to 2021, according to data from Federal Reserve banks in St Louis and Atlanta. Housing starts have been weak in the past three years as mortgage rates surged. Starts were at a 1.31mn unit annual pace in August, down from about a 1.6mn rate in 2021-2022. US home builders have little incentive to develop new units, which in turn could support higher home prices in 2026 as homebuilding continues to be outpaced by a growing population. Meanwhile, weak housing demand and construction activity has left US PVC producers to manage an oversupplied domestic market, weighing on spot export prices and likely maintaining headwinds through the first quarter of 2026. Spot export prices have been rangebound from $550-595/metric tonne (t) fas Houston since mid-October, as US exporters vie with competitive Chinese volumes into India — the largest global importer of PVC. Exports from the US to India are anticipated to rebound in 2026 as much of the regulatory headwinds that crimped shipments this year are largely resolved. India earlier this year required foreign exporters to have their plants inspected and certified by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) by June, which was eventually delayed to the end of the year. India in early November dropped those requirements, but confusion around the shifting BIS deadlines led US producers to limit shipments to India. Additionally, India approved preliminary anti-dumping rates on US and Chinese PVC exports but failed to fully implement the penalties — effectively eradicating the last trade barrier into the country. US PVC exports to India in January-September this year fell by 68pc from the same nine-month period last year, according to US Census Bureau trade data compiled by Global Trade Tracker (GTT), largely because of various regulations and evolving trade policies. Exporters, though, are expected to reclaim lost market share in India in 2026, especially as the US housing market is anticipated to remain weak until the third quarter. Increased exports should help draw down inventories early next year, after suppliers grappled with excess inventory and multi-year price lows. The export market may become more important to US producers if domestic demand remains weak. This is due to OxyChem's expanded Battleground plant in La Porte, Texas, coming on line by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and US chlor-alkali producer Olin focusing expansion plans on the PVC market. Caustic soda prices A bearish PVC market to start 2026 is expected to lend price support to caustic soda prices for fully integrated producers. Caustic soda is co-produced with chlorine, a critical feedstock for PVC manufacturing, and producers can increase caustic soda prices to preserve electrochemical unit (ECU) margins during periods of bearish PVC and chlorine market conditions. An ECU is comprised by 1t of chlorine and 1.1 dry metric tonnes (dmt) of caustic soda. Domestic producers and distributors raised caustic soda prices in monthly contract negotiations for much of 2025, helping to offset incrementally lower chlorine settlements, despite building caustic soda inventories during the second half of the year. Domestic caustic soda inventories are poised to end the year at elevated levels following an estimated 5-10pc cut in US consumption and largely steady production for much of 2025. But to sustain a pricing strategy that maintains value in caustic soda, suppliers with deep-water access are expected to boost exports in 2026, primarily to Europe and Brazil, or peel back operating rates. Further caustic soda price support next year is anticipated to be drawn from rising natural gas prices for electricity generation, which comprises about 70pc of total ECU variable costs in the US Gulf coast region, Argus estimates. Average natural gas costs into electricity are forecast to climb by nearly 8pc next year to $4.20/mmBtu, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook . By Connor Hyde and Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Tight lauric oils to support fatty alcohols


18/12/25
News
18/12/25

Viewpoint: Tight lauric oils to support fatty alcohols

London, 18 December (Argus) — Limited lauric oils supplies should maintain upward pressure on mid-cut fatty alcohol values into 2026. Lauric oils are a key feedstock used in the production of oleochemicals such as fatty alcohols and are primarily sourced from coconut oil (CNO) and palm kernel oil (PKO). Fatty alcohols are used in a variety of products including personal care, cosmetics, as well as in industrial applications. The fourth quarter of 2025 has been plagued with limited demand and uncertainty over the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) implementation date, pushing lauric oils and mid-cut alcohols prices down. Mid-cut fatty alcohols prices hit a high of $3,100/t fob southeast Asia in early August, but prices have since declined to a low of $2,400/t in mid-December, according to latest Argus data. Tighter supply could lend support to CNO and PKO values in 2026, which could help to push mid-cut fatty alcohols prices up as costs are passed down. CNO supply has been flat for years, and new coconut tree planting in Asia will take a number of years to boost yields. PKO supplies will likely remain tight in Malaysia, even though palm oil output has risen in the country. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects palm oil production at around 19.5mn t this year, potentially hitting a record 20mn t. But PKO is a popular cocoa butter substitute and continues to command strong demand from the confectionary industry. In Indonesia, the world's largest palm producer, supplies of PKO could be curbed next year, following severe floods this and the government's palm plantation land seizure. Additional fatty alcohols capacity has come on stream in southeast Asia during the second half of 2025, and this additional demand is likely to pull on lauric oil supplies next year. Demand uncertainty On the demand side, European consumption has fallen significantly this year owing to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the EUDR, according to market participants. The regulation, originally slated to come into effect at the end of 2024, was pushed back to the end of 2025. But on 17 December, the European Parliament backed an additional one-year delay. This opens up the European market to more palm oil and PKO than would have been the case had the EUDR come into effect. This will likely put further upward pressure on mid-cut alcohols prices in 2026 as demand picks up from Europe. The EUDR delay postpones application of due diligence requirements by one year for large and medium operators from 30 December 2026. Small operators have until 30 June 2027. By Neha Popat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US tariffs hit Brazil rosin ester sales for 1Q 2026


17/12/25
News
17/12/25

US tariffs hit Brazil rosin ester sales for 1Q 2026

London, 17 December (Argus) — Brazilian rosin ester sellers are losing first-quarter 2026 orders as US buyers avoid imports facing 50pc tariffs. Talks to ease duties have progressed, but US customers have already secured early-2026 volumes elsewhere, limiting Brazil's near-term sales. Even if tariffs fall soon, shipments would not reach the US in time for first-quarter delivery, sellers said. The US is a key market for gum rosin and rosin esters used in road marking and hot melt adhesives. Shutdowns at crude tall oil (CTO) refineries in DeRidder, Louisiana, and Crossett, Arkansas, cut 300,000 t/yr of US tall oil refining capacity. The closures sharply reduced domestic tall oil rosin (TOR) and TOR ester output, creating an opportunity for Brazilian product to fill the gap. Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data show Brazilian gum rosin exports to the US hit a record high of 4,602t in 2024, supported by the CTO refinery shutdowns. But exports have fallen sharply since then, totalling just 1,551t in January-November this year. Gum rosin can substitute for TOR in some applications, and both feedstocks are upgraded into rosin esters. But tariffs have kept US buyers reliant on domestic TOR ester and alternative tackifiers for adhesives and road marking. Southern European rosin esters are gradually entering the US market to cover some of the drop in Brazilian sales, sellers and buyers said. Midpoint European CTO prices fell by 18.7pc on the year to €650/t ex-mill in the fourth quarter of 2025. In contrast, Brazilian pine oleoresin prices rose by 13.8pc to 5,150 reals/t (€804/t) at the forest on 15 December from a year earlier. Pine oleoresin and CTO are feedstocks for gum rosin and TOR production, respectively, which are then upgraded into rosin esters. European derivative producers use both Brazilian gum rosin and local TOR for rosin ester output. Lost first-quarter sales and tariffs will likely curb second-quarter volumes next year, Brazilian suppliers said. Larger Brazilian sellers saw double-digit growth in the first half of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, but orders for the first half of 2026 are at risk because of missed US sales in the opening quarter. By Leonardo Siqueira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IG4 moves closer to Braskem control


15/12/25
News
15/12/25

IG4 moves closer to Braskem control

Sao Paulo, 15 December (Argus) — Latin America's largest petrochemical company Braskem said it received notice that its controlling shareholder Novonor has signed a 60-day exclusivity agreement with private equity firm IG4 to buy its shares of Braskem and credits guaranteed by them. Braskem said IG4 also has an agreement with Novonor's creditor banks to acquire all credits against Novonor and related entities that are secured by Braskem shares, worth close to R20bn ($3.71bn). If implemented, a fund advised by IG4 or an affiliate would become the direct or indirect holder of Braskem common and preferred shares representing 50.1pc of voting capital and 34.3pc of total capital. Novonor would retain preferred shares equal to 4pc of Braskem's capital, without governance rights beyond those set by law. The transaction must be approved by Brazil's antitrust watchdog Cade. In July Cade cleared without restrictions a proposed sale of Novonor's controlling stake to Petroquimica Verde, an investment fund linked to businessman Nelson Tanure. While that approval removed a key regulatory hurdle it did not finalize the transaction, which expired after a 90-day exclusivity period. The competition for Braskem's ownership it taking place amid financial struggles for the company and intense market volatility. Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the company's credit rating to CCC+ from BB-, citing refinancing risks and persistent negative free cash flow. By Isabela Mendes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.