Overview
As the world pivots towards decarbonisation, challenges and opportunities loom for base oils production and demand. Staying on top of this market is more important than ever to realise these opportunities and mitigate pricing risk.
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Base oil prices remain elevated since ceasefire
Base oil prices remain elevated since ceasefire
London, 10 April (Argus) — The global base oils market is getting no respite from the ceasefire announcement in the Mideast Gulf, as logistic and feedstock issues that are constraining supply persist, market participants told Argus . The ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran on 7 April has not changed global base oil market fundamentals, and even if a permanent peace deal is reached it would take a couple of months before production and trade flows resumed, participants said. Group III supplies remain stranded in the Mideast Gulf as the strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and spot prices in net importing regions continue to surge. Argus -assessed Group III 4cst spot prices have increased more than twofold in the US and by 70pc in Europe since the war began in late February, to $2,406.50/t and $2,515/t respectively on 10 April. The Mideast Gulf accounts for about 20pc of global Group III output, according to Argus estimates. The region supplied 47pc of US Group III imports in 2025 and 72pc of European imports, EIA and Kpler data show. European and US term customers are on allocation and some suppliers looked at alternative means to get product out of the Middle East, including moving supplies via truck to Jeddah or Oman to be loaded on to containerships, bypassing the strait of Hormuz. But trucks are being prioritised for fuel movements, and with costs estimated at up to $1,000 per truck before loading and freight costs, spot offers would be raised by €1,000/t compared with assessed prices. No movements of this nature have been reported, and logistics costs are too high and complicated. Supply will anyway be limited from the region. Shell's 1.1mn t/yr Pearl Group III gas-to-liquid plant sustained missile damage to one of its two trains that will take a year to repair. Diesel margins over feedstock vacuum gasoil (VGO) reverted to a discount compared with light-grade Group I base oils when the ceasefire was announced. But the spread between the two remains minimal at $22.50/t, as assessed on 9 April. The five-year average premium that base oil carries over diesel after feedstock costs is $285/t. A higher and more sustained spread over diesel would need to happen before refineries consider increasing base oil production, participants told Argus . But supplies remain constrained as refineries undergo maintenances and some have production issues . Base oil run cuts at Asian refineries are ongoing because of feedstock supply disruptions from the Middle East, affecting Group I and Group II output. Refineries have to prioritise strategic fuels over base oil output. US suppliers are looking to move volumes there to support term customers. US refineries are also looking to building inventories for hurricane season, which typically runs from June to October. This continues to add upward pressure to prices. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Gdansk refinery ups output after maintenance
Gdansk refinery ups output after maintenance
Warsaw, 8 April (Argus) — Poland's 210,000 b/d Gdansk refinery is increasing production after completing scheduled maintenance earlier this month. Most of the units taken off line for between late February and early April have restarted, as planned, operator Rafineria Gdanska said on 7 April. Maintenance was conducted on crude and vacuum distillation units, a diesel hydrotreater, the MHC mild hydrocracker, a reformer, the jet fuel Merox and hydrogen generation units, and two sulphur recovery units. A second phase of planned maintenance at Gdansk takes the refinery's three base oil units off line from 8 April until mid-May. Rafineria Gdanska is a joint venture of state-controlled Orlen with 70pc and state-controlled Saudi Aramco holding 30pc. Orlen is planning maintenance on a hydrocracker at its 373,000 b/d Plock refinery in Poland from 13 May until 24 June. The Polish company's 63,000 b/d Kralupy refinery in the Czech Republic has been shut down for scheduled maintenance since mid-March and should restart in early May. Orlen's 190,000 b/d Mazeikiai refinery in Lithuania was off line for 30 days of planned maintenance last month. By Tomasz Stepien Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Base oil margins fall on feedstock, diesel prices
Base oil margins fall on feedstock, diesel prices
Houston, 6 April (Argus) — US Group II base oil margins to feedstocks and competing fuels both fell for the week ended 3 April because feedstock and US Gulf coast diesel prices are rising quicker than base oil spot prices. The Argus US domestic Group II N100 discount to four-week average US Gulf coast diesel widened by 9¢/USG on the week to reach 18¢/USG, compared with a year-earlier premium of 98¢/USG. US Gulf diesel's premium to Group II N100 is currently at an all-time high, according to Argus data. Four-week average US Gulf coast diesel prices rose to $3.93/USG last week, up from $3.69/USG the week before. This puts four-week average diesel prices up by $1.37/USG since the start of the US-Iran war during the week ended 6 March. US Group II base oil spot prices rose last week because refiners are not offering spot, and many blenders are trying to build up inventories. Some market participants are able to obtain needed Group II volumes, while others are willing to pay higher prices in order to secure extra volumes. The Argus US domestic Group II N100 premium to four-week average low-sulphur vacuum gasoil (VGO) declined to $1.01/USG, down from $1.06/USG a week earlier. Base oil premiums to low-sulphur VGO are still higher than 99¢/USG from around when the war began. Margins remained below year-earlier totals of $1.16/USG. Four-week average low-sulphur VGO prices continued to rise because of firm global demand and limited supplies. Four-week average Brent crude levels are also up by 78¢/USG since the US-Iran war began, which is further supporting elevated VGO prices. The four-week average low-sulphur VGO to four-week average WTI crude spread widened to its highest level since March 2025 at $18.60/bl, up from $16.72/bl last week. By Karly Lamm Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Asian Group III base oil prices hit record highs
Asian Group III base oil prices hit record highs
Singapore, 6 April (Argus) — Asia-Pacific Group III base oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive week, ending 3 April, to its highest level in over seven years. Demand for the premium-grade lubricant feedstock has risen as more buyers prioritise supply security following a slowdown in exports from Asia and the Mideast Gulf. This is boosting delivered prices in export outlets to multi-year highs. The strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed because of the ongoing US-Iran war and has continued to curb exports from the region. Repair works following extensive damage to Shell's Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar are expected to last over a year and has further squeezed supply availability. Volumes from Asia are also sharply curtailed as refineries lower base oil output to prioritise the production of key fuels such as diesel and gasoline as feedstock supply concerns mount. Around 60pc of Asia's crude supplies in 2025 came from the Mideast Gulf, according to data from Kpler. Asian refineries have mostly halted spot offers since early March and have also cut supplies to domestic markets and term customers. Group III price increases have gathered pace, with Argus -assessed Asia Group III 4cst and 6cst fob export prices rising by $250/t from the previous week to $1,750/t in the week ending 3 April. Asia Group III 8cst fob export prices gained $200/t over the same period to $1,600/t. The larger rise in Group III values combined with smaller gains in Group II prices, has boosted Group III premiums after falling to a record low in the previous week. The premium for Argus -assessed Asia Group III 4cst to Group II N150 fob export values rebounded to $245/t in the week ending 3 April, up from $50/t a week earlier. But the Group III premium is still below its 2025 average of $369/t. The rise in Group II prices slowed as more blenders scale back lubricant production in response to sharply higher base oil and additive prices. There remains difficulty passing costs on to customers, as finished lubricant price adjustments continue to lag. Surging Group III demand has incentivised a 280,000 t/yr Group III refiner in southeast Asia to postpone its 45-day long maintenance to mid-August. The producer is able to maintain stable output as it relies on domestic crude supplies for base oil production. Another Group III facility in the region, with a production capacity of 505,000 t/yr, is scheduled to undergo a 40 day maintenance shutdown in May. By Tara Tang Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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