アンモニア
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アンモニア市場は、急速かつ劇的な変化の時期を迎えています。従来のアンモニア、あるいは「グレー」アンモニアは、ほぼ窒素含有量のみを目的に生産されてきました。しかし、世界経済を脱炭素化し、野心的なゼロ・カーボン目標を達成するという喫緊性により、興味深い新たな機会がもたらされています。
アンモニアは、水素という形でエネルギー・燃料部門に供給される、最もコスト効率が高く実用的な「ゼロ・カーボン」エネルギー・キャリアとなる可能性を秘めています。このため、クリーン・アンモニアへの関心が急速に高まり、新しい「グリーン」「ブルー」アンモニア・プロジェクトが次々と生まれています。
アーガスは、アンモニア市場を数十年にわたってカバーしてきた実績があります。 エネルギー、海洋燃料、ネットゼロへの移行、水素など、マルチコモディティ市場の専門知識を取り入れ、既存の市場参加者や新規参入者に市場の全容をお伝えします。
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- 従来のアンモニアおよびクリーンアンモニアの価格、需給、取引、プロジェクトに関する短期および中長期の予測、モデル化、分析
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最新ニュース
世界のアンモニア市場に関する最新の市場動向ニュース
Prospects shrink for clean H2 use in S Korean power gen
Prospects shrink for clean H2 use in S Korean power gen
Hamburg, 9 June (Argus) — South Korea may need less than 30,000 t/yr of renewable or low-carbon hydrogen for the 500 GWh/yr of clean power generation that it seeks to subsidise in 2029-44 through a tender later this year, after Seoul sharply lowered its targeted volumes. The government outlined its revised plans for a relaunch of a second clean hydrogen power generation bidding market tender on 8 June. It has shrunk the tender volumes to 500 GWh/yr from 3 TWh/yr after excluding ammonia co-firing as an option because of plans for an accelerated coal phase-out . The amount of hydrogen required for the 500 GWh/yr will depend on the efficiency of the fuel cells or turbines used to generate the electricity. Fuel cells typically have an efficiency of up to around 60pc and the most modern gas-fired plants — where hydrogen could be co-fired — can reach similar levels. At an average 60pc efficiency and based on hydrogen's lower heating value of 33.3 kWh/kg, around 25,000 t/yr of hydrogen would be needed to generate 500 GWh/yr. In practice, achieved efficiencies could be lower. At an average of 50pc, roughly 30,000 t/yr would be needed to make 500 GWh/yr. In any event, required supply is far below the 150,000-180,000 t/yr that would have been needed for the 3 TWh/yr considering hydrogen-based power generation only. Hydrogen-equivalent volumes would have been even higher when assuming that much of the 3 TWh/yr would have been generated through ammonia co-firing with coal, given lower efficiencies. Around 1.45mn t/yr of ammonia, equivalent to roughly 250,000 t/yr of hydrogen, would have been needed for 3 TWh/yr of power when assuming an average efficiency of 40pc. In a first round in 2024, all five bids submitted were based on use of imported ammonia . Besides eliminating the ammonia option under the new design, the government is also shifting the focus for the hydrogen supply to domestic production as it wants to reduce dependence on imports. The government notice states that the bid evaluation system will ensure that the process supports "the creation of a domestic clean hydrogen production ecosystem," indicating that selection criteria will be designed to favour domestic production over imports. The carbon intensity of supply must again be below South Korea's clean hydrogen standard of 4kg of CO2 equivalent per kg of hydrogen. Final rules will be set after a consultation with industry participants, the government said. The government will also conduct a separate general hydrogen power generation tender for 950 GWh/yr of electricity output. This is open to any hydrogen without specific carbon intensity requirements and could involve use of supply made from fossil fuels without carbon abatement measures and of by-product hydrogen. Based on the assumed efficiencies above, the 950 GWh/yr could require roughly 48,000-57,000 t/yr of hydrogen. The government is planning more rounds going forward and will disclose volumes for these next year. This will take into account the 12th basic plan for energy supply and demand that is currently under development. By Stefan Krumpelmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU-US trade deal unlikely to stimulate ammonia flows
EU-US trade deal unlikely to stimulate ammonia flows
London, 5 June (Argus) — The European Parliament is expected to approve legislation implementing a trade deal with the US on 16 June, setting zero tariffs on a wide range of US goods entering the EU, including ammonia. But the deal is unlikely to encourage an influx of duty-free ammonia imports from the US while costs associated with the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) remain prohibitive. US ammonia imports to the bloc were previously subject to a 5.5pc duty, until the EU temporarily suspended standard import tariffs across most fertilizers for one year from 30 May. Tariff-free ammonia imports for the year were capped at 300,000t for ammonia, a quota that applies only to origins previously subject to duties. The tariff removal equates to savings of around $50/t at current delivered prices to Europe, which were assessed at $900/t cfr duty-paid/free on 3 June, and at $850/t cfr duty-unpaid on the same day. The EU-US trade deal is expected to provide for retroactive application from 1 August 2025 and will run until 31 December 2029, entitling 280,000t of ammonia imported since 1 August 2025 to be eligible for rebates. But savings of $50/t do not cover the additional costs of CBAM for US cargoes. The EU assigned the US a country default carbon-intensity benchmark of 3.44t CO2 equivalent (CO2e)/t ammonia. The default value equates to additional import costs of $168/t against the Argus- assessed second-quarter rolling average of the EU emissions trading system (ETS) prompt price as of 3 June at $86.14/t CO2. CBAM declarants may be able to use actual emissions data from plants with a year of past operating data, as opposed to the country default values, which could result in substantially lower costs. Some ammonia units, such as CF's Donaldsonville, are widely expected to get emission verification by early 2027. Newer plants with an operating history of less than a year, including both the Gulf Coast Ammonia 1.3mn t/yr plant and Woodside's 1.1mn t/yr Beaumont plant, are less likely to secure verification next year. EU importers are not willing to take the risk of having to pay the high CBAM costs for importing US tonnes, which has been demonstrated by the absence of any shipments from either of the two new plants to Europe this year. Duty removals are not expected to reverse this trend. Meanwhile, the EU has imported just under 90,000t from Donaldsonville so far this year, 38,500t of which loaded in December. Origins with lower CBAM country default values such as Algeria and Egypt, two of Europe's top suppliers, are expected to encounter CBAM costs of around $53/t and $50/t, respectively, in the second quarter, Argus estimates. But both of these countries were already duty-free prior to the tariff suspension. Neither the standard import tariff removal or the EU-US trade deal can therefore be expected to stimulate a large increase in US ammonia shipments to Europe, at least until individual plants are able to provide verified emission data. The full impact of the trade deal is therefore unlikely to be felt before next year. EU officials expect member states to approve the legal texts for the EU-US deal swiftly, before the end of June. The deal was initially agreed with US president Donald Trump in July last year but legislative approval was stalled earlier this year after Trump threatened to annex Greenland. By Lizzy Lancaster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oman’s Omifco plans IPO
Oman’s Omifco plans IPO
Amsterdam, 2 June (Argus) — Omani urea and ammonia producer Omifco aims to float 25pc of its existing shares on the Muscat exchange through an initial public offering (IPO). The precise timeline for the IPO has not been confirmed, but the firm has indicated an expected listing at some point in July, according to its website. Oman's OQ owns half the business, with India's Iffco and Kribhco holding a quarter each. Omifco produced 2.07mn t of urea in 2025, almost all which was exported and sold by OQ, with India accounting for 71pc of deliveries in 2023-25, while 17pc went to Latin America. The firm also produced 1.35mn t of ammonia last year, with India receiving 61pc of shipments in 2023-25 and 23pc shipped to African markets. Omifco exports from the Omani port of Sur. The firm has yet to publish an IPO prospectus, but reported revenue of just over $800mn last year and a profit margin of 40pc, implying profit of just under $321mn. In comparison, fellow supplier Fertiglobe, which operates nitrogen facilities in the UAE, Egypt and Algeria, posted revenue of $2.83bn in 2025, while Saudi Arabia's Sabic reported revenue of 13.1bn riyals ($3.49bn) last year. Omifco is the top urea producer in Oman and the joint third-largest producer in the Mideast Gulf — not including Iranian suppliers — after QatarEnergy and Sabic and has roughly the same urea capacity as Fertiglobe's Fertil facility in the UAE. The timing and speed of the IPO launch are not surprising. Urea and ammonia prices spiked in the aftermath of the US-Iran war at the end of February and the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz. The Middle East is the largest urea exporting region, shipping around 20mn t/yr, or 35pc of global seaborne trade, of which just over 17mn t/yr either loads beyond the strait of Hormuz or from Iran. But Omani suppliers have escaped the snarled traffic in the wider region in recent months and were largely able to continue operations and shipments, capitalising on the highest nitrogen prices in nearly four years. But urea prices have tracked lower in recent weeks, having hit a peak in mid-April. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Egypt, Morocco H2 plans await stronger demand signals
Egypt, Morocco H2 plans await stronger demand signals
Rotterdam, 21 May (Argus) — Morocco and Egypt have been among north Africa's most prominent countries for renewable hydrogen and derivatives production, but with the majority of announced projects at early development stages market participants say stronger demand signals will be required for plans to move forward. High capital costs are often cited as a constraint for project developers setting their sights on emerging markets. But a lack of demand — rather than financing availability — is the primary barrier to project development in Morocco and Egypt, according to a report from the Green Hydrogen Organisation (GH2). While financial institutions have shown interest in funding projects, the "absence of revenue certainty remains the central issue" to make projects bankable, GH2 programme officer Simran Sinha said during an event on the sidelines of the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam this week. GH2 spoke with 23 industry stakeholders in the two countries and "demand uncertainty always came first" when they listed their challenges, Sinha said. Morocco has taken steps to support developers. The government and the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (Masen) are facilitating access to land, infrastructure, governance frameworks and contracting pathways under its Moroccan offer launched in 2024 targeting large-scale hydrogen projects. Six projects are currently included, five of which remain at pre-FEED stage — but missing demand is stalling development, said Masen executive director Nawfal El Fadil. Clear and stable standards are also required, El Fadil said. Certification systems must be internationally aligned and remain consistent over a project's lifetime to support bankability. If conditions need to be adapted during the lifecycle of a project, it will not be bankable, he said. Egypt faces similar constraints. The country has established a regulatory framework, industry strategy, incentives and international agreements to support hydrogen development, according to Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company chairman Alaa El-Din Abdel Fattah. A contract awarded in 2024 under the H2Global programme to Fertiglobe for renewable ammonia exports from Egypt demonstrates the country's competitiveness, he said. But further demand signals are needed to move additional projects forward. Alongside demand uncertainty, gaps remain in financing tools and certification clarity, Fattah said. Stakeholders have proposed some measures to address these barriers. Because many projects in Egypt and Morocco target exports to Europe, bankability depends not only on domestic policy frameworks, but also on clear demand through mandates, subsidies or mechanisms such as carbon pricing in importing centres, GH2 said. Concessional and blended finance — special types of financing available for projects in developing countries — can help improve financing terms as project mature towards bankability; but these mechanisms alone are not enough to make projects bankable in early development stages when developers need to do feasibility studies and asses risk, GH2 said. Risk-sharing mechanisms could also support project progress. Developers currently bear a disproportionate share of early-stage project risk, which delays financing. "Financing is available, but it tends to enter too late, as no actor is willing or mandated to take the first risk," GH2 said. Further measures such as foreign exchange risk mitigation tools, contracts for difference (CfD) and more investments in common user infrastructure could also support investment, OECD's industry programme lead Deger Saygin said. By Pamela Machado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
