Carbon markets
Overview
Carbon markets are developing as a crucial economic lever in the challenge of reversing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, while CO2 remains a key factor in a range of industrial sectors.
National governments are embracing carbon markets, with a proliferation of carbon pricing policies worldwide. The private sector is channelling finance into projects that generate carbon emissions reductions and removals to mitigate their hard-to-abate emissions.
And the United Nations is making progress in building a global marketplace for carbon emissions reductions that will facilitate nations’ attempts to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement.
Industrial sectors remain a key source of CO2 emissions and consumption, with innovation looking towards sustainable methods of production and utilisation.
Argus is setting the stage for an extended period of growth, evolution and interconnection of carbon market participants and initiatives.
Latest carbon markets news
Browse the latest market moving news on carbon markets.
UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures
UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures
London, 23 December (Argus) — UK downstream association Fuels Industry UK has urged the government to reallocate unused free CO2 allowances from two recently closed refineries to help remaining plants cope with rising emissions compliance costs. The group wants allowances granted under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth and 105,700 b/d Lindsey refineries to be redistributed. Each allowance permits the holder to emit one tonne of CO2 equivalent. Grangemouth and Lindsey were allocated 441,925 and 541,475 allowances for 2025, respectively. It is unclear how many remain after their closures in April and August. The association warned the sector "may not survive that long" without temporary support, citing carbon costs that exceed those faced by overseas competitors until the UK's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) takes effect. ExxonMobil's 270,000 b/d Fawley refinery — the UK's largest — will spend $70mn-80mn on carbon costs this year, rising to $150mn within five years, the company's UK chair Paul Greenwood told MPs during an Energy Security and Net Zero Committee hearing in October. Fuels Industry UK chief executive Elizabeth de Jong also addressed the committee, highlighting broader cost pressures. It remains unclear whether refined fuels will be covered by the UK CBAM, which starts in January 2027. Fuels Industry UK is seeking confirmation that they be included from January 2028, and it wants additional free UK ETS allowances distributed to sectors not covered by CBAM during a "volatile" period linked to expected UK-EU carbon market linkage. Such linkage would exempt UK and EU from each other's CBAMs, but talks have yet to start. UK refiners have also missed out on government energy price support schemes during the gas price surge triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, de Jong told MPs. Refiners paid market rates to power operations at their UK sites, missing out on discounts afforded to UK companies under the Energy Bill Relief Scheme, which ran between October 2022-March 2023, and then under the Energy Bills Discount Scheme between April 2023-March 2024. By contrast, US refiners access natural gas at roughly one-third of UK prices, Greenwood said. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ausblick Biomethan: Chancen und Hindernisse im EU-Markt
Ausblick Biomethan: Chancen und Hindernisse im EU-Markt
Hamburg, 23 December (Argus) — Der europäische Biomethanmarkt wird in 2026 ein regional ungleichmäßiges Wachstum verzeichnen. Verzögerte Umsetzungen der RED III und ungelöste politische Fragen bremsen den Markthochlauf. Gleichzeitig bleibt die Schifffahrt ein zentraler Nachfragetreiber — vor allem für zertifiziertes, subventioniertes Biomethan. Die überarbeitete EU-Richtlinie für erneuerbare Energien (RED III) gibt den Mitgliedstaaten bis 2030 zwei Optionen, um die Klimaschutzziele der EU zu erreichen: Entweder können die Staaten ihre Treibhausgasemissionen bis 2030 um 14,5 % zu senken, oder sie können einen Anteil von 29 % ihres Energiebedarfs aus erneuerbaren Quellen decken. RED II verlangte lediglich einen Anteil von 14 % erneuerbarer Energien. Einige Länder wie Deutschland haben ihre nationalen Umsetzungspläne der Vorgaben von RED III bereits vorgestellt und planen, diese im kommenden Jahr umzusetzen. Mehrere Länder wie die Niederlande oder Frankreich setzen zukünftig auch auf ein THG-System, wie es in Deutschland nun schon seit Jahren existiert. Biomethan mit niedriger oder negativer Kohlenstoffintensität wird damit zum bevorzugten Kraftstoff, um die Verpflichtungen zu erfüllen — vor allem in den Niederlanden, wo es bisher hinter vergleichsweise günstigeren Biokraftstoffen zurückblieb. Eine weitere EU-Verordnung, die den Einsatz von Biomethan begünstigt, ist FuelEU Maritime. Diese trat im Januar 2025 in Kraft und verpflichtet Reedereien, die Emissionen ihrer Flotten in den Jahren 2025 und 2026 um jeweils 2 % pro Jahr zu senken. Übererfüllung kann über Pooling-Systeme vermarktet werden. Dies hat sich für das Bunkering von Bio-LNG in 2025 als besonders profitabel erweisen. Die Regelung hat die Preise für Herkunftsnachweise (HKNs, oder englisch: RGGOs) stark beeinflusst und dürfte 2026 weiter für Dynamik sorgen. Neue Systeme, entweder unter RED III oder nationalen Verpflichtungen, die 2026 in Kraft treten, werden Nachfrage erzeugen, die mit dem Bedarf aus der Schifffahrt um das Angebot konkurrieren muss. Der größte Teil des niederländischen und dänischen Biomethanangebots für 2026 ist bereits für den maritimen Sektor vorgesehen. Wachstum in den Niederlanden Neben der Umstellung auf die THG-basierte Verpflichtung im Rahmen des sogenannten ERE-Zertifikatssystem unter RED III haben die Niederlande im November mit der Arbeit an einer "Green Gas Blending Obligation" begonnen. Eine Umsetzung vor Ende 2027 erscheint zwar unwahrscheinlich, doch die Pläne stützen vorerst die Preise für HKNs. Die Liquidität von niederländischem Biomethan könnte steigen, wenn die Regierung die Massenbilanzierung von Biomethan genehmigt. Ein entsprechender Antrag wurde im November im Parlament eingebracht, doch eine jüngste Regierungsantwort deutet darauf hin, dass dieser nicht von Erfolg gekrönt sein wird. Bio-LNG muss, wie auch in Deutschland, unsubventioniert sein, zertifiziert sein und physisch geliefert werden, um sich für ERE-Zertifikate zu qualifizieren, andernfalls wird es bei der Berechnung des Gesamtmandats eines Kraftstoffanbieters mit einer fossilen CI von 94 g CO2e/MJ behandelt. Stabiles Deutschland, Frankreich Deutschland wird 2026 die Doppelanrechnung für fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe wie Biomethan auf die THG-Quote abschaffen. Bislang war dies stets ein großer Anreiz für den Einsatz von Biomethan als Kraftstoff. Trotzdem bleibt Biomethan in Deutschland der günstigste Weg, um die THG-Quote zu erfüllen, denn insbesondere güllebasiertes Biomethan hat ein konkurrenzloses Einsparungspotenzial. Auch die steigende THG-Quote könnte die Nachfrage stützen, jedoch bleibt der Absatzmarkt in Deutschland durch die limitierte Anzahl an LNG- und CNG-Fahrzeugen begrenzt. Frankreichs Beimischungspflicht für Biogas-Produktionszertifikate (CPB) tritt im Januar in Kraft und dürfte auch dort die Inlandsnachfrage deutlich ankurbeln. Die Umsetzung der RED III-Richtlinie, die ein neues, auf Treibhausgasen basiertes IRICC-Ticketsystem vorsieht, wurde jedoch auf 2027 verschoben. Das derzeitige energiebasierte TIRUERT-Ticketsystem für den Transport bleibt bis dahin bestehen, und bremst die Nutzung von Biomethan im Verkehrssektor. Ob IRICCs ab 2027 aus Biomethan generiert werden können, ist noch unklar. Die Verpflichtung, 3 % erneuerbares Gas im Verkehrssektor zu verwenden, tritt 2028 in Kraft und wird danach weiter ansteigen. Der grenzüberschreitende Handel und die Bunkerung von Bio-LNG dürften weiterhin eingeschränkt bleiben. Französisches Biomethan kann nur im Rahmen einer Ex-Domain-Annullierung exportiert werden, also durch die Löschung von HKNs in einem Land zur Verwendung in einem anderen. Dies birgt Risiken für Käufer, da die Eigentumsrechte an den Nachweisen nicht zwangsläufig übertragen werden. Subventioniertes Biomethan darf an französischen LNG-Terminals nicht für die Nutzung außerhalb des Landes verflüssigt werden. Französisches Bio-LNG muss über Massenbilanzierung an andere Terminals in der EU exportiert werden, um unter FuelEU Maritime genutzt zu werden. Großbritannien: Zugang zur EU unklar Der Zugang des Vereinigten Königreichs zu EU-Märkten hängt vom Zugang zur Unionsdatenbank für gasförmige Biokraftstoffe (UDB) ab, deren Start nun für Ende Sommer 2026 vorgesehen ist. Unklarheiten bei der Drittstaatenregelung könnten den EU-Handel einschränken — ein kritisches Thema, da das Vereinigte Königreich in den ersten drei Quartalen 2025 mehr als die Hälfte seiner HKNs exportierte, hauptsächlich nach Deutschland, Norwegen und in die Schweiz. Das Vereinigte Königreich prüft derzeit den Ersatz volumenbasierter RTFC-Tickets durch ein THG-basiertes System, doch Änderungen würden erst 2027 in Kraft treten. Fazit Insgesamt bleibt Biomethan in Europa in THG-basierten Systemen gut positioniert, doch Verzögerungen bei der Umsetzung von Vorschriften dürften das Gesamtwachstum des Marktes verlangsamen. Die Niederlande, Dänemark und Deutschland sollten weiterhin Anker für die europäische Preisbildung bleiben, und Spanien dürfte seine Rolle als maritimer Hub festigen. Doch mehrere Länder riskieren, zurückzufallen, wenn sie keine HKN-Register, Export-Hub-Zugänge, politische Anreize und Subventionsreformen einführen. Von Madeleine Jenkins & Svea Winter Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
Viewpoint: Policy delays refocus US SAF industry
Viewpoint: Policy delays refocus US SAF industry
Houston, 23 December (Argus) — US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production rose to a record this year, but mounting delays for policy clarity may send volumes abroad or force producers to dial back output in 2026. SAF output rose to an all-time high of 196mn USG through November of this year compared to 39mn USG in all of 2024, according to US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data. But growth next year is uncertain as the industry awaits final rules on a new biofuel tax credit, nearly a year after the US issued preliminary guidance. The Inflation Reduction Act's 40B SAF tax credit expired after 2024, ending a minimum $1.25/USG subsidy for producers and blenders of a fuel that produces half as many emissions as petroleum jet fuel. The move this year to the 45Z tax credit for all types of domestic clean fuel production was always expected to be rocky — in part because stricter carbon intensity rules left most types of SAF with less of a tax break than in 2024 — but the market also has been hurt by delayed final rules. The US government now expects to issue final regulations in the second quarter of 2026, though interim guidance could come sooner. Nonetheless, producers have begun selling 45Z credits at a discount to the book value of the credit. With producers looking for the market to rebound after a year of depressed margins and a drop in SAF values, this revenue stream is expected to become more common in future years but will still hinge on policy certainty. In a similar fashion, EPA expects to finalize new biofuel blend mandates in the first quarter next year, another delayed regulatory program affecting SAF margins. While jet fuel is not obligated under the program like conventional gasoline and diesel, SAF generates a D4 RIN that is used by refiners to show compliance with the EPA's standards. These RINs over the last five trading days were valued at about $1.08/RIN for credits with 2026 vintage . One USG of SAF generates 1.6 RIN credits, a substantial source of revenue for SAF producers and importers alike. EPA in a June proposal signaled a significant increase in the blending mandate in the category satisfied by D4 RINs. If EPA finalizes similarly ambitious quotas, it would support D4 prices and give SAF producers a boost in offering their product at a more competitive price. At the state level, multiple jurisdictions offer tax credits geared toward rewarding producers and airlines that increase SAF usage. The one that has made the most difference in boosting SAF demand is Illinois' $1.50/USG airline tax credit for SAF use. Minnesota has a similar policy. Washington, Nebraska and, most recently, Arkansas have enacted incentives available to SAF producers within their states. But those states have not produced any SAF that is not co-processed with petroleum fuel and they have no facilities being commissioned, according to Argus estimates. Uncertainty over federal policy continues to act as a roadblock for SAF producers looking to develop, finance, and bring their products to market in a timely and efficient way. The oldest tenured US producer of SAF, World Energy's facility in Torrance, California, was idled in July following a reorganization of refining assets. Industry newcomer XCF Global's plant in Reno, Nevada, is producing only renewable diesel, not SAF as originally planned, at least through 2025, spurred by difficult market conditions and lower demand. Given the absence of European-style SAF mandates in the US, domestic airlines are focused on meeting their minimum SAF usage goals at the lowest possible cost. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's attacks on climate change policy has eroded industry-wide SAF demand. SAF prices reached all time lows in December, valued as low as $3.52/USG in the US west coast. But that's still a considerable premium to petroleum jet fuel, meaning uptake will be limited in the US absent new policies. If final incentives are delayed further, and new state policies do not make up the difference, US SAF producers could have reason to send their fuel abroad. And if arbitrage opportunities fail to materialize, producers may dial back production or pivot to production of other renewable fuels. By Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge
Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge
London, 23 December (Argus) — A UN Cop 30 climate summit pledge, known as "Belem 4x", to quadruple "sustainable fuels" use over 2024-35 has so far drawn 27 signatories, including major biofuels producers and consumers. But such a substantial increase could face constraints, including feedstock and land availability, and will depend on supportive legislation. The signatories pledged at Cop 30 to "expand sustainable fuels use globally by at least four times by 2035 from 2024 levels", including by "adopting ambitious national policies". Sustainable fuels, in the context of the pledge, refers to liquid biofuels, biogases, "low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels", according to energy watchdog the IEA. The pledge follows an IEA report in October developed for the Cop 30 presidency, which found that a fourfold increase "is ambitious yet achievable". Under the IEA scenario, liquid and gaseous biofuels would meet around two-thirds of sustainable fuel demand in 2030, while hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels would "expand rapidly" after 2030. Cop 30 host Brazil proposed the pledge in September , based on the IEA's preliminary findings, and the commitment was launched with India, Italy and Japan at the pre-Cop event in Brasilia, Brazil in October. The pledge now has 27 signatories from Latin and North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, encompassing sustainable fuels producers and consumers. Canada, Indonesia, Mexico and the Netherlands are among the signatories. The pledge "sends an important political signal: scaling up sustainable fuels is not only necessary for climate goals, but feasible", the European Waste-based and Advanced Biofuels Association (Ewaba) told Argus . "Europe's biodiesel sector shows how sustainable biofuels can strengthen energy security, reduce import dependence and deliver immediate climate benefits using existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure," Ewaba added. Rising demand Sustainable fuels are typically used in transport sectors, which are among the highest-emitting, particularly in advanced economies. Although transport electrification is expanding, it is typically not moving fast enough to hit climate targets in line with the Paris Agreement, while shipping and aviation will require multiple decarbonisation solutions. Hydrogen and related fuels are also likely to see uptake from industry and power generation. Global demand for sustainable fuels doubled over 2010-24, and is already expected to grow this decade, boosted by policies designed to drive emissions reductions and support energy security. Conversely, the removal of tax credits for electric vehicles in the US, and recent weakening of the EU target for zero-emission cars are also likely to support increased biofuels consumption. The full implementation of existing and announced policies and targets, "plus the removal of market barriers, could lead to a near-doubling of sustainable fuel use in just six years", the IEA said. This could attract investment for new production capacity, it added. It also recommended prioritising infrastructure and supply chain development, as well as innovation funds for new technologies. The IEA found that sustainable fuels could cover 10pc of road transport demand, 15pc of aviation demand and 35pc of shipping fuel demand by 2035 — although it would "vary widely" by region. In an accelerated case, the IEA found that liquid biofuels could provide 8.07EJ in energy in 2030, up by 62pc from 2024 levels. The picture shifts by 2035 in the scenario, with biogas supply more than doubling and low-emissions hydrogen more than quadrupling, both from 2030. Land-use concerns But a near-term focus on increased biofuels production sparked concerns from several organisations about feedstock availability and the land conversion implications. "Such a massive uptake in biofuels could have calamitous consequences for the environment and climate, depending on how this pledge is interpreted," European non-governmental organisation (NGO) Transport & Environment (T&E) said. It flagged land cleared for crops such as palm oil, soy, sugarcane and corn. T&E projections show that "under current growth trends and policies, 90pc of biofuels will still be reliant on food and feed crops by 2030." The IEA noted "limited" expansion opportunities for biofuels from waste oils and fats, while it recommended improving crop yields for other feedstocks. But climate change is likely to hamper crop output. The UN Environment Programme warned recently that under a ‘business as usual' pathway, land degradation "is expected to continue at current rates, with the world losing fertile and productive land the size of Ethiopia or Colombia annually". Cop pledges often aim to drive an existing trend faster, and this is typically evident in the signatories — a coalition of the willing. Brazil has vast ethanol production capacity and strong domestic consumption mandates, like India, while another signatory, Chile, is forging ahead with renewable hydrogen production. The pledges, like all climate action, rely on strong policy, but commitment from key countries is more likely to achieve results. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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