フレート／輸送
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アーガスでは世界各地におけるエネルギーの海上／河川輸送のフレート、パイプライン、鉄道輸送などの物流におけるデータサービスを提供しております。2020年から施行される船舶燃料の硫黄規制によって、どのような変革および構造改革がなされるのか盛んに議論されるに至っています。旧来の船舶用重油に対する需要の後退、および低硫黄軽油に対する需要の増加が予見されるなか、今後の船舶燃料がどのような方向に進んでいくのか今後の戦略立案に資する情報サービスを提供しております。
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Hormuz reopening hinges on Iran-Omani deal
Hormuz reopening hinges on Iran-Omani deal
Washington, 5 August (Argus) — Diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz to navigation are revolving around an Iran-Omani understanding over the management of shipping routes leading to and from the Mideast Gulf. Iran and Oman are close to issuing a joint statement specifying "geographical coordinates" of a safe transit route through Hormuz, "if some third parties do not obstruct work in this regard", Iran's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. An Iran-Omani understanding could provide adequate diplomatic cover for President Donald Trump's administration to adhere to the terms of a deal it signed with Iran in June and set aside a month later. Trump may have been referring to the Iran-Omani dialogue when he began on 2 August to reference ongoing talks with Iran that he said would result in reopening Hormuz within a day or two. Trump, speaking to reporters late on Tuesday, reiterated that a deal to reopen Hormuz could be concluded by Wednesday or Thursday. And US energy secretary Chris Wright noted on Tuesday: "We're very close to an arrangement that'll achieve both of the objectives: stop impeding the flow of traffic out through the strait of Hormuz and get energy flows going globally." Oil markets appear to be taking seriously US assurances that a deal is imminent. Details of talks with Oman that Iran's foreign ministry shared last week indicate that Tehran is insisting on full control over ships entering the Mideast Gulf and at least partial oversight of the exit routes through the waterway. That arrangement would fall short of the principle of freedom of navigation and unrestricted transit through the waterway that the US, European and Mideast Gulf governments said they are keen to re-establish. But the White House may have concluded — as it did in June — that Hormuz could not be reopened by military means. Vessels transiting through Hormuz have primarily been using the Iranian-favored northern traffic lanes since mid-July. Iran has periodically attacked vessels sailing through a southern route skirting the Omani coast, which theoretically is protected by the US naval and air forces positioned in the region. The Pentagon insists that the southern route remains open to navigation. But even numbers cited by the US military — 30 vessels over 2-3 August — fall far short of the pre-war transit levels through Hormuz of more than 100 vessels daily. The now-defunct US-Iran "memorandum of understanding", signed in June, involved other concessions from Washington. The deal called for the US to lift its naval blockade on Iranian trade, to grant crude buyers unrestricted waivers to access Iranian oil and to give Tehran access to its frozen funds in foreign banks, estimated to total at least $24bn. The US in mid-July reimposed the blockade, revoked the sanctions waiver and refused to allow Iran to repatriate its frozen funds. Tehran appears to be demanding similar concessions as a condition for reopening Hormuz to navigation. The Iran-Omani understanding by itself would not make Hormuz safe for transit "because the factors that make the strait of Hormuz unsafe by the US, especially the naval blockade and other aggressive and threatening actions against Iran and its interests, still exist," Iran's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. US-Iranian negotiations for more than a decade had focused on Tehran's nuclear program, a goal that Trump says remains his top priority. But the war Trump started has refocused diplomacy with Iran toward reopening a waterway that had been fully open to navigation before the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
White House mulls Jones Act waiver extension
White House mulls Jones Act waiver extension
New York, 4 August (Argus) — The White House is considering extending its waiving of the Jones Act, set to expire on 16 August, with some limitations, but has yet to make a final decision on the matter. "There are still ongoing discussions as the administration continues to monitor how the waiver is being used," a White House official told Argus on 4 August. The potential for a geographically restricted waiver was discussed as a prospective limitation to the Jones Act waiver in mid-July and is now being discussed alongside a cargo limitation, according to a Jones Act market participant. Another adjustment currently under consideration by the White House is the potential for a more limited Jones Act waiver that would require a determination of non-availability of Jones Act vessels, two people familiar with the matter told Argus . Opposition to renewing the waiver has been mounting. House Republicans urged President Donald Trump to restore the Jones Act at the start of July while news that the waiver would be extended once again surfaced in mid-July, prompting backlash among the US domestic maritime industry. "A law intended for genuine emergencies is instead being used to benefit energy market participants, while American consumers and mariners bear the cost," Jennifer Carpenter of the American Maritime Partnership, a coalition of domestic maritime interests, said. There has been a slight uptick in Jones Act tonnage requirements for mid-to-late August, driven by the uncertainty over whether the waiver will expire, a shipbroker familiar with the situation told Argus . Jones Act-compliant tonnage has largely been sidelined from the market since the waiver was issued on 17 March, to the benefit of foreign-flagged vessels. "If there are any further announcements, they will be made directly by the president or the administration," the White House official added. By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trio mediate US-Iran talks, but outlook unclear
Trio mediate US-Iran talks, but outlook unclear
Washington, 4 August (Argus) — Qatar, Pakistan and Oman are mediating talks between the US and Iran, but Doha has signaled that an agreement over the strait of Hormuz is not as imminent as President Donald Trump's administration claims. Oil markets appear to be taking seriously US assurances of an imminent deal with Iran and reopening of Hormuz. WTI crude futures were down by more than 5pc in midday trading on Tuesday after treasury secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that "there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait." That followed a 5pc decline in September Nymex WTI on Monday, after Trump said that negotiations on a deal with Iran were so advanced that Hormuz could fully reopen as early as Tuesday. The drop in oil prices was certainly welcome news for the White House. Trump in recent days has been expressing unease about elevated energy prices, accusing the nation's top oil producers on Monday of not doing enough to bring down fuel prices after they posted bumper second-quarter profits. Qatar, Pakistan and Oman have been facilitating diplomatic exchanges between the US and Iran, Qatar's foreign ministry said on Tuesday. But there is no specific timeline for a deal, and the mediators are working to create "the appropriate conditions for the resumption of direct dialogue", Qatar's foreign ministry said. "The minimum demands at the current stage are to return to the previous status of the strait, in line with international law and in coordination with all littoral and concerned nations," it said. Bessent, in turn, said that a prospective deal with Iran would involve "freedom of movement" in Hormuz. Iran has made it clear it would not accept a return to pre-war free transit terms in the strait of Hormuz. Tehran is demanding major concessions for allowing ships to transit Hormuz, through a northern route dictated by Iran's military. The US and Iran have signed two interim deals since April that purported to address the status of Hormuz, but both eventually fell apart over Tehran's insistence on controlling the transit of vessels through the strait. US naval vessels, positioned in the Gulf of Oman, are enforcing a blockade on Iranian trade. The US military has been facilitating vessel transits through a southern route through Hormuz, which skirts the Omani coast, but indiscriminate Iranian drone and missile attacks have deterred most ships from taking advantage of that route. The US administration claims that the route it has opened through Hormuz remains in high demand. "Even though things are still a little dicey there, over the past few days, we've seen quite a few ships coming out even now," Bessent said on Tuesday. "US-assisted" strait of Hormuz transits reached 30 vessels on 2-3 August, according to data provided by the US Navy's Middle East headquarters. But that figure is contradicted by vessel tracking services and could not be independently verified. Hormuz vessel traffic totaled 22 transits on Monday, split between 10 inbound transits and 12 outbound transits, data from maritime security firm Windward shows. Only four vessels took the southern US-supported traffic lane that runs along the Omani coastline, while the rest took the northern Iranian-favored route. The only new element in diplomatic discussions in recent weeks involves a potential Iran-Omani understanding over a designated safe shipping route through Hormuz. Omani-Iranian negotiations in late July focused on oversight of the routes through the strait of Hormuz, with Iran insisting on its full control over ships entering the Mideast Gulf and at least partial oversight of the exit routes through the waterway, Iran's foreign ministry said last week. Any Hormuz transit arrangements have to be acceptable to all Mideast Gulf states and ensure an uninterrupted flow of trade and freedom of navigation, the Qatari foreign ministry said. By Haik Gugarats and Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Drone strikes spread across Mideast energy sector
Drone strikes spread across Mideast energy sector
US military action cannot loosen Iran's grip on the strait of Hormuz, and Iranian proxies are stepping up attacks, write Haik Gugarats and Charlotte Bawol New York, 31 July (Argus) — US-Iranian clashes resumed this week after a four-day pause that the White House attributed to attempts at renewed diplomacy. But elsewhere in the Middle East, the conflict continued unabated, and even spread north beyond the Red Sea. US forces carried out heavy strikes against targets in Iran's coastal and urban areas overnight on 29-30 July, following an Iranian strike against a US base in Jordan. The US targeted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities, according to US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the country's Middle East-based forces. Centcom said the strikes were in retaliation against what it called an "attempted surprise attack" on US forces on 28 July. The IRGC, in response, claimed missile strikes on US bases in Jordan and Kuwait. Meanwhile, Iranian proxies focused their strikes on the region's energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia came under drone attack from Yemen and Iraq on 25-27 July. US and Saudi forces on 28 July carried out strikes in eastern Iraq against what they described as facilities used by Iran-backed Iraqi militias. A drone strike damaged two LNG vessels in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta on 29 July, Cairo said, without assigning responsibility for the attack. President Donald Trump on 29 July described the drone strike in Damietta as "a little more of the same". He had previewed the Centcom strikes the same day by saying "we're going to be hitting them very hard because it's our turn to hit them". Trump has gone back and forth between vowing to compel Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz by military means and teasing out a potential diplomatic outcome. The White House has not explained how Iran retains the ability to attempt or to carry out "surprise attacks" against US bases, since Trump has routinely described the country's military capacity as "obliterated". But Iran's ability to control commercial traffic through the strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be diminished by US military operations, given the effectiveness of Tehran's asymmetrical warfare tactics, analysts say. The amount of firepower that Iran needs to disrupt commercial shipping through the strait is quite small, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) research programme director Joshua Tallis tells Argus. This makes it very difficult for the US to degrade Iranian capabilities to a point where they pose no threat to commercial shipping. "I do not believe, short of a massive ground invasion, that there is a military solution to the Iranians' ability to disrupt and coerce commercial traffic moving through the strait," Tallis says. "The only solution is ultimately a diplomatic negotiated solution." CNA is an independent, not-for-profit organisation funded by the US government to advise its military forces. Ends and means Using diplomatic means to reduce Iran's motivation to attack may prove easier than reducing its ability to attack. Iran has retained its ability to inflict severe damage on commercial shipping using unconventional tactics. Its asymmetric capabilities include fast attack craft, cruise missiles and drones. Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz has increasingly been concentrated along the northern lanes that Iran controls, suggesting that its attacks on commercial shipping using other routes have paid off. The northern lane was used by 88-100pc of Hormuz traffic over 20-24 July, according to data from Maritime security company Windward. All of the vessels that transited the strait on 24 July did so using the northern route, according to Windward. But commercial traffic through the strait is moving at a fraction of pre-war levels, with only 12 vessels transiting the waterway on 24 July, around 9pc of pre-war levels, Windward data show. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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