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US imported biofuel credit cut unlikely in 2026
US imported biofuel credit cut unlikely in 2026
New York, 15 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is unlikely to immediately slash blending credits for foreign biofuels and feedstocks brought into the US, but the idea remains under consideration, people familiar with the matter said. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) last year floated a major revamp of the long-running biofuel program, including a plan to halve credits for blending biofuels produced abroad or made from foreign feedstocks. The Trump administration told a court last month it would finalize new biofuel quotas in the first quarter , kickstarting a last-minute lobbying campaign around whether EPA should proceed with the import-credit cuts. Two industry stakeholders closely tracking the debate told Argus that the administration's initial idea to slash credits for foreign fuels and feedstocks at the start of 2026 is likely dead. The US has previously been more cautious when finalizing retroactive biofuel mandates to avoid legal scrutiny, and it is not clear how regulators could belatedly track whether fuels already blended were made from foreign feedstocks. Any rule, even one announced in the coming weeks, would take effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register . Oil refiners in particular have cast the plan as a threat to retail fuel prices and likely illegal, while US farm advocates worried about imports of renewable diesel feedstocks like used cooking oil have supported restrictions. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard program, EPA requires oil companies to annually blend different types of biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those that do. But there are still advocates within the administration for cutting program credits for imports, the industry stakeholders said. A third source who is directly familiar with the administration's thinking told Argus that the half-credit idea "remains in play". For instance, White House senior counselor for trade Peter Navarro — a longtime Trump adviser and vocal supporter of trade barriers — endorsed the half-credit proposal on Thursday in an unusual op-ed in The Hill website. "The rule closes loopholes that have allowed questionable imports to undercut American farmers and distort the market at scale," Navarro wrote. US secretary of agriculture Brooke Rollins shared the article on social media platform X, saying it was "spot on". Alternatively, biofuel supporters have told EPA that a record-high mandate for biomass-based diesel would support biorefineries that have struggled with policy uncertainty over the last year and guarantee strong demand for US feedstocks like soybean oil even without changes to the credit market. Some have advocated for a biomass-based diesel mandate for 2026 that amounts to between 5.2bn-5.6bn USG/yr of required blending. That is line with the Trump administration's proposal last year but would be a substantial jump from blend requirements of just 3.35bn USG/yr in 2025. Vintage-year 2026 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits tied to biomass-based diesel blending under the program rose to 126.5¢/RIN on Thursday, according to Argus assessments, the highest level for current-year credits in more than two years. RIN prices were supported by higher soybean oil futures after Navarro's op-ed, as well as new EPA data that showed continued weak biomass-based diesel RIN generation in December. EPA said it is "reviewing comments" as it "continues to work on a final regulation" and noted the court filing in which the Trump administration said it aims to finalize program updates this quarter. The White House did not respond to requests for comment. Other more technical decisions around program implementation could affect crop demand, biofuel production margins and fuel prices. EPA has proposed slightly cutting the amount of credits generated from blending a gallon of renewable diesel and potentially requiring larger oil companies to blend more biofuels to offset recent program exemptions granted to smaller competitors. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil cuts outlook for 2025-26 grain, oilseed crop
Brazil cuts outlook for 2025-26 grain, oilseed crop
Sao Paulo, 15 January (Argus) — Brazil trimmed its outlook for the 2025-26 grain and oilseed crop in January but the crop is still set to reach a record of approximately 353.1mn metric tonnes (t), with soybean production leading yearly gains. National supply company Conab downgraded the outlook for the season by around 1.2mn t in January. The 2025-26 cycle's output is still set to be 0.3pc higher than the previous season's. The planted area estimate fell by 0.4pc to nearly 83.9mn hectares (ha) (838,000 km²), although the projection is up by 2.6pc from the prior cycle. Brazil sowed 81.7mn ha in the 2024-25 season. Higher soybean and corn acreage account for most of the yearly expansion. Average yields should total 4,212 kg/ha, slightly up from 4,210 kg/ha a month prior and 2.2pc below the prior cycle. The 2024-25 crop registered ideal weather conditions, which boosted yields. Soybeans Brazil's 2025-26 soybean crop is expected to reach a record of 176.1mn t, a rise of 2.7pc from the 2024-25 season's volumes. January's forecast fell by 0.6pc — or 999,200t — from the prior outlook thanks to unfavorable weather conditions. Irregular rainfall and lower-than-expected volumes in regions of central-western Mato Grosso do Sul state, along with soil problems in parts of central-western Goias state, contributed to the reduction. The amount of rainfall in January-February will be essential for the crop, as most areas will be in their periods of highest water demand. Expected acreage fell by 0.5pc — or 263,000ha — to 48.7mn ha. Areas sown with soybeans should rise by 2.8pc from the last cycle, maintaining a growth trend in place for almost 20 years and supporting a record production outlook for the 2025-26 season. The estimate for yields fell slightly to 3,619 kg/ha from 3,620 kg/ha in December. That is down from 3,622 kg/ha in the 2024-25 cycle. Corn Conab expects Brazil to produce around 138.9mn t of corn in 2025-26, comprising the first, second and third crops. Projected volumes slightly dropped by 11,900t from December and are 1.5pc down from the 2024-25 crop. The outlook for planted area remains at around 22.7mn ha, but the forecast is down by 13,800ha from December. The prior season's sowing covered 21.8mn ha. Average yields should total 6,114 kg/ha, slightly up from 6,111 kg/ha a month prior. That is 5.3pc less than a year earlier. The output outlook for 2025-26 summer corn crop — also known as the first crop — dropped by 11,800t and was 3.8pc above the 2024-25 first corn crop. Acreage was revised downwards by 13,800ha, but it remains estimated at around 4mn ha, a 6.8pc hike on the year. Yields are forecast slightly higher at 6,427 kg/ha, compared with 6,408 kg/ha a month prior. This marks a yearly drop of 2.8pc from the 2024-25 season. For the winter corn cycle — also known as the second crop — Conab projects that the 2025-26 crop will produce 110.5mn t, roughly stable from last month. Volumes are expected to fall by 2.4pc from last season. Yield estimates were at 6,105 kg/ha, flat from December and below the 6,496 kg/ha in the 2024-25 season. The planted area estimate is also stable at around 18.1mn ha. This is up by 3.8pc from acreage in the previous season. The third crop is expected to total 2.5mn t, a near 13pc drop from the 2024-25 crop. The planted area is estimated at 592,100ha, down by 7.4pc from the previous season, and the average yield estimate fell by 5.6pc to 4,241 kg/ha. Estimates were flat from a month prior. Wheat, cotton lint Brazil's 2025 wheat production is estimated at approximately 7.9mn t. That is 1.1pc — or 87,800t — down from a month prior and is in line with the volumes produced in 2024 cycle. Yields are set to reach 3,219 kg/ha, behind last month's 3,257 kg/ha, and up from 2,579 kg/ha in the 2024 crop. Planted area should still total around 2.5mn ha, which is also below the nearly 3.1mn ha sowed in the prior cycle. Conab cut its projections for the 2025-26 cotton lint crop by 199,200t, with production set to reach 3.8mn t. That is down by 6.3pc from the 2024-25 cycle. Yields are set to reach 1,884 kg/ha, only a dip down from 1,885 kg/ha in December and below the 1,954 kg/ha in the 2024-25 crop. Planted area fell by 73,700ha and should total 2mn ha, which is 2.8pc below the sowed area in the prior cycle. 2025-26 soy exports to rise Brazil is set to export 111.8mn t of soybeans in the 2025-26 season, down by 214,200t from December's outlook. That is still up by 3.3pc from 108.2mn t in the previous crop. The decrease is supported by lower expected volumes. Soybean crushing for the season should total 60.5mn t, up by 1.2mn t from the previous month. This is up by 5.9pc from the 2024-25 crop. The January estimate for soybean meal is at 46.6mn t, up from 45.7mn t from the previous month. This is up by 5.9pc from around 44mn t in the 2024-25 season. Soybean oil production is estimated at 12.2mn t, up from 11.9mn t in December. This is up by 6.4pc from 11.4mn t in the previous cycle. Corn exports for the 2025-26 crop are stable from December's outlook at 46.5mn t. That is up from 40mn t in the previous cycle because of the higher grain supply expected for the season. Domestic consumption in the 2025-26 cycle is estimated at 94.6mn t, roughly stable from December and above the 90.6mn t in 2024-25, driven by the expansion of corn ethanol production. By João Petrini Conab January 2025-26 outlook Commodity Season Variation 2024-25 2025-26 Monthly Annual Production ('000t) Dec-25 Estimate Jan-25 Estimate t % t % Cotton lint 4,076.1 3,959.6 3,818.2 -141.4 -3.6 -257.9 -6.3 Corn 141,037.4 138,879.0 138,867.1 -11.9 -0.0 -2,170.3 -1.5 First corn crop 24,935.8 25,907.0 25,895.2 -11.8 -0.0 959.4 3.8 Second corn crop 113,228.4 110,461.0 110,461.0 0.0 0.0 -2,767.4 -2.4 Third corn crop 2,873.4 2,510.9 2,510.9 0.0 0.0 -362.5 -12.6 Soybeans 171,480.5 177,123.6 176,124.4 -999.2 -0.6 4,643.9 2.7 Wheat* 7,889.3 7,961.2 7,873.4 -87.8 -1.1 -15.9 -0.2 Sub-total 324,483.3 327,923.4 326,683.1 -1,240.3 -0.4 2,199.8 0.7 Others 27,656.1 26,468.9 26,443.8 -25.1 -0.1 -1,212.3 -4.4 Total 352,139.4 354,392.3 353,126.9 -1,265.4 -0.4 987.5 0.3 Area ('000ha) Dec-25 Estimate Jan-25 Estimate ha % ha % Cotton 2,085.6 2,100.2 2,026.5 -73.7 -3.5 -59.1 -2.8 Corn 21,842.3 22,727.9 22,714.1 -13.8 -0.1 871.8 4.0 First corn crop 3,772.6 4,043.1 4,029.3 -13.8 -0.3 256.7 6.8 Second corn crop 17,430.3 18,092.7 18,092.7 0.0 0.0 662.4 3.8 Third corn crop 639.4 592.1 592.1 0.0 0.0 -47.3 -7.4 Soybeans 47,346.1 48,935.6 48,672.6 -263.0 -0.5 1,326.5 2.8 Wheat* 3,058.7 2,444.6 2,445.9 1.3 0.1 -612.8 -20.0 Sub-total 74,332.7 76,208.3 75,859.1 -349.2 -0.5 1,526.4 2.1 Others 7,406.4 7,969.1 7,987.0 17.9 0.2 580.6 7.8 Total 81,739.1 84,177.4 83,846.1 -331.3 -0.4 2,107.0 2.6 Yields (kg/ha) Dec-25 Estimate Jan-25 Estimate kg/ha % kg/ha % Cotton lint 1,954.0 1,885.0 1,884.0 -1.0 -0.1 -70.0 -3.6 Corn 6,457.0 6,111.0 6,114.0 3.0 0.0 -343.0 -5.3 First corn crop 6,610.0 6,408.0 6,427.0 19.0 0.3 -183.0 -2.8 Second corn crop 6,496.0 6,105.0 6,105.0 0.0 0.0 -391.0 -6.0 Third corn crop 4,494.0 4,241.0 4,241.0 0.0 0.0 -253.0 -5.6 Soybeans 3,622.0 3,620.0 3,619.0 -1.0 -0.0 -3.0 -0.1 Wheat* 2,579.0 3,257.0 3,219.0 -38.0 -1.2 640.0 24.8 Total 4,308.0 4,210.0 4,212.0 2.0 0.0 -96.0 -2.2 *Repeats the estimate for the 2025 crop. Conab will officially release the estimate for the 2026 wheat crop in February. — Conab Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
French 2025-26 wheat carryout highest in recent years
French 2025-26 wheat carryout highest in recent years
Paris, 14 January (Argus) — France is set to end the 2025-26 (July-June) marketing year with the highest stocks of wheat for some years, national agriculture agency FranceAgriMer (FAM) projected in its January balance sheet, but the agency's forecast was still some way below Argus ' projections and traders' expectations. France is forecast to carry 2.80mn t of wheat over into the new July-June marketing year at the end of the 2025-26, FAM said, which is well below Argus figures and market participants' expectations, which are working with 3.5mn t or more. Aside from slight discrepancies in export volumes, the difference in final ending stocks comes largely from differing estimates for the amount of wheat "collected" from farmers, which is the volume of wheat that enters the domestic market, rather than the actual production. General market sentiment for some time has been that France would end 2025-26 with large volumes of wheat still in silos. French wheat has struggled to regain the share of the global market it had prior to 2024-25, despite a rebound in production in 2025, after severely challenging conditions for the 2024 crop. Both China and Algeria have vanished from French exporters' order books since 2024, leaving Morocco as the top single destination for French wheat by far in the past two marketing years. But Morocco's demand, too, is now in some doubt, partly because of competition from a record harvest in Argentina, but also because of Morocco's own domestic crop set for recovery to its highest in some years, once the harvest begins in May. FranceAgriMer also made the following projections for ending stocks of other crops: Barley stocks at 1.55mn t, up by 6pc from last month's projection Corn stocks at 2.16mn t, up by 16pc on last month's forecast Durum wheat stocks at 145,000t, unchanged on the previous forecast By Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
USDA lifts corn production estimate: Wasde
USDA lifts corn production estimate: Wasde
Houston, 12 January (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its US corn yield and harvested acreage estimates for the 2025-26 marketing year, boosting estimated production by 1.6pc. According to the January update of the USDA's flagship World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ( Wasde ) report, US corn production is now pegged at 432mn metric tonnes (t), a 6.83mn t gain from the month prior. The production boost comes from a 1.3mn acre increase to harvested acreage — despite planted acres only rising by 100,000 acres — and a nearly 3pc increase to yields. Market participants had pegged the USDA's previous yield estimates as optimistic and had expected the January Wasde to feature a downward revision to corn production, not an upward one. The USDA also lifted 2025-26 beginning stocks by 483,000t on account of lower use figures for 2024-25, pushing total supply up by 7.32mn t from December's estimates. Most of the added supply — 5.03mn t — was added to ending stocks, a 9.8pc increase from the December Wasde . The USDA also increased domestic use by 2.29mn t, while leaving export estimates unchanged at 81.3mn t for the year. The stock-to-use ratio rose by 1.41 percentage points to 13.6pc. Historically, higher stock-to-use ratios correlate with lower commodity prices. Futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were quick to fall in the aftermath of the Wasderelease, with the March-delivered corn contract closing the day down 5.38pc. Soybean exports slashed US soybean exports were revised down by 1.63mn t to 42.9mn t, a 3.7pc decline from December and the projected lowest level since the US' 2012 drought-stricken crop. With the decrease in exports, ending stocks forecast rose by 1.63mn t to 9.53mn t. Total supply estimates for 2025-26 also inched up by 463,000t from the December Wasde, attributable to a 100,000 acre boost in harvested area and an uptick in beginning stocks. The added supply went toward a 408,000t increase in crushing and 54,000t rise in residual use. Market reactions to the change in the soybean supply book were not as pronounced as corn, but the mix of higher production and fewer exports did provide downward pressure to the market. At the close of trade Monday, the March-delivered soybean contract on the CBOT was down by 1.13pc for the day. Few changes to US wheat The USDA made few adjustments to the wheat balance sheet for 2025-26, leaving production estimates and export forecasts unchanged. The ending stocks forecast rose by 680,000t to 25.2mn t on account of a 572,000t decrease to total domestic use and a minor boost to beginning stocks for the year. Larger beginning stocks came out of a small cut to 2024-25 use volumes. By Joseph Crosby January 2026 USDA Projections mn t 2025/26 Chg from Dec 2024/25 Chg from Dec U.S. corn supply and use Acres planted 98.80 0.10 90.90 0.00 Acres harvested 91.30 1.30 83.00 0.00 Yield t per acre 4.74 0.01 4.56 0.00 Supply -Beginning stocks 39.40 0.48 44.78 0.00 -Production 432.35 6.83 378.27 0.00 -Imports 0.64 0.00 0.56 0.00 Total supply 472.39 7.32 423.62 0.00 Use -Feed and residual 157.49 2.54 138.54 -0.30 -Food, seed and industrial 177.05 -0.25 173.06 -0.20 --Ethanol and by-products 142.25 0.00 138.08 0.00 --Other use 34.80 -0.25 34.98 -0.20 -Total domestic use 334.53 2.29 311.60 -0.51 -Exports 81.28 0.00 72.60 0.00 Total use 415.82 2.29 384.22 -0.48 -Ending stocks 56.57 5.03 39.40 0.48 -Stocks-to-use pc 13.60 1.14 10.25 0.14 U.S. wheat supply and use Acres planted 45.30 0.00 46.30 0.00 Acres harvested 37.20 0.00 38.60 0.00 Yield t per acre 1.45 0.00 1.40 0.00 Supply -Beginning stocks 23.27 0.11 18.94 0.00 -Production 54.02 0.00 53.86 0.00 -Imports 3.27 0.00 4.06 0.00 Total supply 80.53 0.11 76.86 0.00 Use --Food 26.45 0.00 26.37 0.00 --Seed 1.66 -0.03 1.66 0.00 --Feed and residual 2.72 -0.54 3.08 -0.11 -Total domestic use 30.84 -0.57 31.11 -0.14 -Exports 24.49 0.00 22.48 0.00 Total use 55.33 -0.57 53.59 -0.14 -Ending stocks 25.20 0.68 23.27 0.11 -Stocks-to-use pc 45.55 1.68 43.42 0.31 U.S. soybeans supply and use Acres planted 81.20 0.10 87.30 0.00 Acres harvested 80.40 0.10 86.20 0.00 Yield t per acre 1.44 0.00 1.38 0.00 Supply -Beginning stocks 8.85 0.24 9.31 0.00 -Production 115.99 0.24 119.04 0.00 -Imports 0.54 0.00 0.79 0.00 Total Supply 125.38 0.46 129.17 0.00 Use -Crushings 69.94 0.41 66.54 0.00 -Seed 1.99 0.00 1.91 0.00 -Residual 1.06 0.05 0.63 -0.24 -Exports 42.86 -1.63 51.22 0.00 Total use 115.86 -1.17 120.32 -0.22 -Ending stocks 9.53 1.63 8.85 0.24 -Stocks-to-use pc 8.22 1.48 7.35 0.22 — USDA, Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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