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Korea to impose anti-dumping duty on Chinese PET resin
Korea to impose anti-dumping duty on Chinese PET resin
Shanghai, 21 October (Argus) — The Korea Trade Commission (KTC) has recommended that the Ministry of Economy and Finance (Moef) impose anti-dumping duties on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin from China, with an implementation period of five years. The affected products are classified under South Korea's tariff code 3907.61.0000. KTC recommended a rate ranging from 7-7.98pc, with this decision in line with market expectations. Chinese producer Jiangsu Ceville applied for the exclusion of recycled PET from the scope of the investigation, but the South Korean government ultimately denied this request. Moef in July announced the decision to impose provisional anti-dumping duties on the affected products for a period of four months, effective until 29 November. This came after KTC issued a positive preliminary ruling that recommended the imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties on the involved enterprises. KTC had started an anti-dumping investigation into the PET resin produced in China on 12 January. South Korean company TK Chemical had filed an anti-dumping investigation request with KTC in November 2023, citing losses to the relevant domestic industry because of the dumping of Chinese PET resin. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Malaysia's 2025 budget promotes palm waste SAF
Malaysia's 2025 budget promotes palm waste SAF
Singapore, 21 October (Argus) — Malaysia's state-owned Petronas will work with palm oil producers to develop palm oil waste-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), according to prime minister Anwar Ibrahim when he presented the 2025 budget. The palm oil producers include Malaysia-based agribusiness FGV and Malaysia-headquartered SD Guthrie, previously Sime Darby. Anwar also announced additional higher tax brackets for crude palm oil (CPO) exports will be introduced from 1 November and proposed to increase Malaysia's windfall profit levy threshold for the palm sector. These changes are meant to ensure domestic CPO supply and encourage domestic production of value-added products including SAF and biodiesel, according to the Budget documents. Progressive export duties will be introduced from 8.5pc when CPO prices rise above 3,600 ringgit/t ($837/t), up to a maximum 10pc for CPO prices above 4,050 ringgit/t. Previous duty rates capped out at 8pc for CPO prices above 3,450 ringgit/t. This revised export structure is likely to weigh on palm oil prices, as exporters may reduce bids in the domestic market to keep prices below the threshold that will trigger higher export duties. The CPO price threshold for triggering Malaysia's windfall profit levy will be increased to 3,150 ringgit/t for Peninsular Malaysia and 3,650 ringgit/t for Sabah and Sarawak from 1 January 2025, a rise of 150 ringgit/t from the previous threshold for both areas. The windfall profit levy applies to producers of palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB). The revised export taxes and windfall profit levy threshold are expected to increase costs for the palm plantation sector, but would help the downstream palm refining industry become more competitive compared with Indonesia, according to industry consultancy Glenauk Economics. Replanting funds Malaysia will also allocate another 100mn ringgit to incentivise smallholders to continue replanting unproductive, ageing oil palm trees under its 2025 budget, the same amount from the previous year. The funding will be 50pc in grants and 50pc in soft loans, as in Budget 2024. No land area target for replanting was specified this year. But this year's allocated funding of 100mn ringgit mirrored last year's allocation that targeted 5,900 hectares (ha) of land area. But this amount will likely not be enough to support adequate replanting, according to market participants. Malaysia replanted an estimated 1.7pc of mature oil palm plantation areas during January-September and 2.6pc of mature areas in 2023, according to data from Glenauk Economics. This indicates more funding is likely needed to meet the 4pc industry standard for replanting mature areas yearly as recommended to maintain palm oil output volumes. The low replanting rate has likely partly been because of high palm oil prices in recent years compared to the historical average. High prices discourage voluntary replanting as plantation owners prefer to continue harvesting FFB from older trees over replanting. Third-month crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia averaged 3,890 ringgit/t over the past two years up to 21 October. The average price recorded over the past 10 years was just 3,124 ringgit/t. The US department of agriculture (USDA) estimated a quarter of planted oil palm areas in Malaysia were older than 25 years old as of early January, resulting in lower yields. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Housing construction falls in Sept, PVC demand mixed
Housing construction falls in Sept, PVC demand mixed
Houston, 18 October (Argus) — Housing permits and starts fell in September according to the latest figures from the US Census Bureau due to volatility in multi-family construction, but single-family construction has grown more steadily throughout the peak building season. Permits for privately-owned homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.428mn units in September, according to the US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). That is 2.9pc below the revised August rate of 1.47mn units and 5.7pc below the September 2023 rate. Housing starts were at a rate of 1.354mn units in September, 0.5pc below the revised August rate of 1.361mn units and 0.7pc below September 2023. Permits have risen and fallen every other month since April of this year. During that time permits for buildings of five or more units trended in the exact same way: rising in one month only to fall the very next. Housing starts have followed a similar track as well, only the month-to-month volatility has endured for the entire year. Once again, multi-family housing units have driven the inconsistency. More recently, multi-family homes have declined for two straight months. Single-family construction Stripping away the multi-family construction figures reveals that single-family construction has not only been more stable but has been growing consistently in recent months. That growth has been limited in some instances and any rebound has still been evidence of a construction market restrained by weaker buying sentiment fueled by high home prices as well as higher borrowing costs. Single-family housing permits were at a rate of 970,000 units in September, 0.3pc higher than August's revised rate. That is the highest rate in five months and the fourth-straight month of growth. Permits had fallen each month from January to June, though, and permits in September 2024 were still down 1.2pc compared with the prior year. Housing starts for single-family units were at a rate of 1.027mn units in September, 2.7pc higher than August and 5.5pc higher than the previous year. Housing starts have only grown for three consecutive months, reflecting the delayed impact of permitting on actual housing construction. The year-to-year comparisons reflect a housing construction market that is recovering from a weak 2023. But softer permit numbers compared with last year still indicate some hesitation in future demand expectations and the likelihood of a continued gradual and uneven recovery into next year. Builder confidence rose to 43 points in October compared with 41 in September, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released on 17 October. That reflects some improving sentiment despite affordability concerns in the market, but any mark below 50 points is still indicative of a weak market. PVC demand varies by end use The housing market picture has been mixed for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) all year. Demand peaked for some buyers and converters back in May or June, with demand only slowly declining since. But some end use segments like pipe or exterior profiles have reported stable and solid demand even into October. Pipe production has been buoyed by public investments in infrastructure, such as spending to replace lead pipes used in the US' water infrastructure as part of a recent finalization of an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule requiring all lead pipes be replaced within 10 years. But for exterior profiles, which covers siding, windows, and doors, the market has also been fairly strong as of late. Resin suppliers to these customers have reported strong ordering patterns, seemingly without concern about inventory buildup before the end of the year. Stronger single-family construction activity, which would use more siding for example, combined with recent storms in the Southeast US requiring home rebuilding and repair could explain some of this better demand sentiment compared to other PVC end uses. However, PVC contract pricing has been under pressure due to larger PVC inventories among producers and competition for market share. Argus assessed September PVC contracts as stable from the previous month at 59.5¢/lb, but some customers reported getting modest price decreases in limited instances. By Aaron May Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand
CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand
Washington, 17 October (Argus) — Eastern US railroad said it expects that fourth quarter commodity market conditions will be mixed, limiting some freight demand. "Going into the fourth quarter, near-term conditions look modestly more challenging," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said on Wednesday. But the railroad expects "modest volume growth", supported by a few segments including chemicals and agriculture. But lower locomotive fuel prices and the impact of international coking coal prices, which are linked to export rail contracts, could drive a decrease in total revenue during the fourth quarter. He estimated that impact at roughly $200mn compared with last year's fourth quarter revenue of $3.68bn. CSX expects to see a carryover of year-over-year momentum in chemicals, agriculture and food, forest products and minerals, while metals and automotive will continue to be challenged. Demand for metals shipments is predicted to soften through the end of the year. Interest in shipments, particularly steel, is soft because of "sluggish demand, ample supply and low commodity prices", chief commercial officer Kevin Boone said. A weaker-than-anticipated automotive market contributed to the drop in metals demand. Consumer demand for automotive products has been reduced by high retail prices and interest rates, which has led to increased dealer inventories and slower production, Boone said. But CSX expects that an "interest rate easing cycle will help these markets normalize," Boone said. Metals and equipment volume fell in the second quarter, primarily because of lower steel and scrap shipments. Shipments of metals and equipment fell by 9pc to about 64,000 carloads compared with the same three months in 2023. Revenue dropped to $208mn, down by 8pc from a year earlier. Automotive volume dropped in the second quarter because of lower North American vehicle production, CSX said. Automotive traffic fell to 301,000 railcars loaded, down by 2pc from the third quarter 2023. Automotive revenue dropped to $98mn, down by 3pc compared with a year earlier. The outlook for fertilizer shipments is mixed following the third quarter as a decline in long-haul phosphates shipments persisted. Volume was negative, but the railroad was able to haul some profitable spot shipments. Shipments of fertilizer fell to 45,000 carloads in the third quarter, down by 4pc from a year earlier. Fertilizer revenue dropped to $118mn, down by 5pc from a year earlier. CSX expects growth in some market segments. Chemicals freight demand is expected to continue growing following "consistent, broad strength across plastics, industrial chemicals, LPGs, and waste. That demand helped boost chemicals volume by 9pc compared with a year earlier. Chemicals revenue rose to $727mn in the second quarter, up by 13pc compared with a year earlier. Agricultural and food products shipping demand is expected to continue growing, led by demand for grain and feed ingredients from the Midwest for supplies. That follows a third quarter when higher ethanol shipments, as well as increased overall volume helped raise volume by 9pc from the third quarter of 2023. Revenue from shipping agricultural and food products rose to $416mn, up by 11pc from a year earlier. CSX expects intermodal growth to continue with the trucking market falling, which would help drive more container freight to rail. Intermodal shipments are goods shipped in containers and trailers between different modes of transportation. The 1-3 October strike by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) did impact intermodal traffic, but the railroad was pleased with the "relatively quick short-term solution", Boone said. International intermodal volume during the third quarter rose because of higher east-coast port traffic. Domestic volume was mostly flat. Overall intermodal volume during the quarter increased by 3pc compared with a year earlier. But lower revenue per container helped reduce total intermodal revenue by 2pc to $509mn. CSX does not expect a major shift in coal volume through the end of the year as coal markets seem relatively stable and utility stockpiles are sufficient, Boone said. Rising natural gas prices are also unlikely to stimulate a "near-term step-up in volumes". Export coal demand has been consistent lately, particularly from buyers in Asia. But revenue per railcar for export coal could make a modest single digit drop, as contracts are tied to international coal benchmarks and prices fell earlier this year. Expport coal voume rose to 11.1mn short tons (10.1mn metric tonnes) in the second quarter on higher demand for thermal and coking coal. But domestic coal deliveries fell to 10.2mn st, down by 12pc from a year earlier, on lower deliveries to power plants and lake and river terminals. Rail coal volume fell by 2pc from a year earlier, while revenue dropped by 7pc to 553mn st. Total CSX profits rose to $894mn, up by 8pc compared with third quarter 2023. Revenue increased to $3.6bn, up by 1pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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