Nitrogen
Overview
The ease of urea availability east and west of Suez has shaped the current trade flows of this key nitrogen fertilizer. Despite challenges posed by energy prices and military conflicts, key import markets such as India, Australia, and Latin America remain robust. But structural oversupply and the role of China as a swing exporter have led to price volatility as this fast-moving market seeks equilibrium, more so during seasonally high-demand periods.
Our extensive nitrogen coverage includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulphate. Argus has many decades of experience covering the nitrogen market and incorporates our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including ammonia and natural gas to provide the full market narrative.
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Latest nitrogen news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global nitrogen industry.
Global fertilizer affordability near three-year low
Global fertilizer affordability near three-year low
London, 2 July (Argus) — Global affordability for fertilizers has dropped to its lowest in nearly three years on a sustained increase in fertilizer prices — as strong global demand competes for limited supply — while crop values have dipped to the lowest since September 2020. Nutrient affordability fell to 0.75 points in June, the lowest since September 2022, Argus data show. An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. The fertilizer index fell in June owing to higher fertilizer prices for phosphates while an increase in urea prices in June added further support to the index. The Israel-Iran conflict firmed market sentiment across all nutrients in June, which has also added some volatility to freight rates. Phosphate prices saw the largest gains, with June prices at the highest since September 2022 on persistent demand from India in the absence of inflows of Chinese DAP supply. DAP prices have kept moving up as tight supply has kept driving the market at both sides of the Suez Canal. Chinese suppliers have been sitting comfortably with limited supply availability, which enabled them to increase offers in the face of African and southeast Asian demand. In the west, buyers have been struggling to secure limited MAP supply, also supporting prices. On potash, MOP prices have reached the highest in two years driven by geopolitical uncertainty and robust demand in all major markets, particularly in southeast Asia, where affordability levels have been supported by excellent palm oil prices. Meanwhile, on the potash supply side, availability was expected to be reduced from three major producers — Uralkali, Belaruskali and Eurochem — as they underwent maintenance works. Together, these works were expected to reduce MOP output by 1.3mn t across the first half of the year, further underpinning prices. Urea prices rose to the highest in four months as the Middle East conflict pushed prices up on output curtailment while strong fundamentals — driven by Indian demand — continued to support prices. On the other hand, the crop index — which includes global prices for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans adjusted by output volumes — have fallen to a near five-year low. By Lili Minton and Elena Mataro Global fertilizer affordability index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nola urea climbs 7pc on escalating Mideast conflict
Nola urea climbs 7pc on escalating Mideast conflict
Houston, 23 June (Argus) — Urea barge values at New Orleans (Nola) climbed by 7pc on Monday afternoon in reaction to the US entering the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Barges delivering to Nola in July changed hands at $443-450/st fob, about $30/st higher than on 20 June. August barges also transacted at $445-455/st fob. Nola barge values have rallied by $100/st since Israel first launched strikes against Iran on 13 June following a downturn in reaction to spring demand fading at the port. The US bombed nuclear sites in Iran on Sunday. Iran then launched missiles at a US military base in Qatar today in retaliation. Qatar has been the first or second largest source of US urea imports in recent years. The escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran puts supplies in the Middle East at greater risk of disruption. Nitrogen production in Egypt and Iran is already off line. There are also fears in the global market that Iran may try to block the strait of Hormuz, but global supply remains threatened whether that occurs or not. The Middle East exports 21-22mn metric tonnes/yr of urea, about 40pc of global seaborne urea trade. The US received 1.6mn t, or 34pc its urea imports from the region, this fertilizer year, which runs from July through June, according to US Census Bureau data and Argus estimates. The US received roughly 60pc of its phosphate imports from the Middle East through April of this fertilizer year as well. Nola urea prices are taking a lead from international values despite spring demand being essentially over at the port and the Middle East's shrinking share of US imports since April because of US tariff policy. With the fertilizer offseason in the US at hand there is less urgency to attract imports, but the fall application season is closing in. In addition to reduced import availability to the US because of supply disruptions, other destinations could turn to exports from the US, a common but limited occurrence during the summer offseason. If disruptions to global supply continue, producers will have more negotiating leverage through the offseason resulting from having more incentive to export and less imports to compete with. The US is already facing tight supply and demand fundamentals at home. Tariffs restricted imports this spring while the largest corn crop in over a decade drained inventory across the US, likely leaving distributors and producers will little inventory leftover. Urea affordability — measured by a ratio of urea and corn prices — is 32pc below year-ago levels. Higher pricing through the summer season will likely trim fill and prepay buying, especially with interest rates largely holding compared with last year, keeping the cost of storing product historically elevated. By Calder Jett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Potential Hormuz closure threatens ferts, sulphur trade
Potential Hormuz closure threatens ferts, sulphur trade
London, 23 June (Argus) — Iran's threat to "close" the strait of Hormuz in response to the US military attack on its nuclear sites over the weekend risks disrupting 20-50pc of international trade in urea, sulphur, phosphate and ammonia. The risk is primarily to buyers of fertilizer and associated raw materials outside the Mideast Gulf as, with the exception of sulphuric acid, potash and some niche products, the flow of trade is dominated by exports. Fully half of global seaborne sulphur trade originates from the Mideast Gulf — 20mn t this year, according to Argus Analytics — which goes primarily to China, Morocco and Tunisia, and for mining users in southern and central Africa. Sulphur is a key raw material for making phosphate fertilizers. Some substitution for sulphur by merchant sulphuric acid is possible but the sulphuric acid markets are already tight. Urea markets also have a substantial degree of exposure to potential disruption to shipments from the Mideast Gulf, with around a third of seaborne trade supplied from the region. Exports from the Mideast Gulf are forecast at around 18mn t this year by Argus Analytics , from a global total of 56mn t. The major destinations for Middle East urea during the third quarter each year are typically Brazil, India, Thailand and Australia. Ammonia exports from the Mideast Gulf account for around a fifth of global trade. Shipments this year from Mideast Gulf producers averaged around 365,000 t/month, according to Argus ' tracking of loaded vessels, with the main buyers being fertilizer producers in India and Morocco, which have taken 830,000t and 315,000t, respectively, and mostly industrial buyers in South Korea, which have taken 335,000t. For phosphates, the main risk is to the supply of MAP and DAP from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden produces around 20pc of the 17mn t/yr of seaborne trade in MAP and 14pc of the 12mn t/yr of DAP trade, with India typically the largest recipient of the latter, in terms of quantity, during the third quarter. All DAP and MAP shipments, plus some NPS, are loaded from Ras al-Khair. On the import side, the greatest impact from any disruption to shipments in the region would be on sulphuric acid. Ma'aden is expected to import around 700,000t of sulphuric acid through Ras al-Khair in 2025, and line-up data show nearly 500,000t of acid will be shipped in the first seven months of the year, mainly from Asia-Pacific origins such as west coast India and China. Few alternative loading mechanisms are available to bypass any disruption to the strait of Hormuz. The UAE port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman can load bulk cargoes, but in the event of significant regional disruption the port might not be able to prioritise fertilizer exports over other commodities. It is also on the far side of the country from the urea and sulphur production facilities. Saudi Arabia has several Red Sea ports, but distances overland from production sites close to the Mideast Gulf make this route operationally and commercially challenging. The threat of disruption has so far not prevented trade in and stevedoring of cargoes within the region — including shipments from Iran's ports of Bandar Imam Khomeini and Asaluyeh — which continued over the weekend. By Bede Heren Mideast Gulf fertilizer and related raw material exports Product Exports ('000 t/yr) % of seaborne trade Sulphur 20,058 50 Urea 17,978 32 Ammonia 3,635 21 MAP 3,480 20 includes exports from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE — Argus Analytics Mideast Gulf ports Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Urea prices surge in Australia, prompt supply limited
Urea prices surge in Australia, prompt supply limited
Sydney, 20 June (Argus) — Domestic urea prices in Australia have surged on the back of rising international fob prices because of ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, and prompt supply has tightened on increased demand. Israel's attack on Iran in the early hours of 13 June and the further escalation of tensions has caused international urea prices to surge on tightened supply as Egyptian output was halted on 13 June and Iranian urea production went off line on 18 June because Israeli gas flows have stopped. Saudi Arabian fertilizer producer Sabic sold 45,000t of granular urea at $450/t fob on 17 June, a sharp rise from $402/t fob in a deal four days earlier. Domestic urea prices in Australia rose throughout the week to 20 June almost as fast as international prices as suppliers raised their offers on a day-by-day basis. Retailers that previously hesitated to buy from importers because of weak domestic demand rushed into the market to procure supplies on fears of further price rises. Offers started the week at around A$775/t ($503/t) fca Geelong on 16 June, increasing to A$790-800/t on 17 June. Cargoes were reportedly sold as high as A$865/t as buyers rushed into the market. Two suppliers reportedly offered urea out of Geelong at A$900/t late on 18 June, but buyers retreated at that level. Weekly average domestic granular urea prices were assessed much higher on the week at a midpoint of A$865/t fca Geelong in the week to 20 June, up from A$745-750/t a week earlier ( see graph ). Urea stocks high, prompt supply limited Healthy stocks and underwhelming domestic consumption from growers owing to unfavourable weather conditions had limited demand for urea so far in 2025, which in turn buoyed stocks and prompted suppliers to lower prices from mid-April until hostilities broke out in the Middle East. Australia imported 1.26mn t of urea in the first four months of the year, the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Urea imports reached an estimated 601,000t in May and are expected to decrease to 508,000t in June, according to vessel-tracking data from trade analytics platform Kpler. This suggests Australia's urea imports could reach 2.37mn t in January-June, down from 2.49mn t in the first half of 2024. But Australian urea stocks are still likely to be higher at the end of June 2025 compared with the same month a year earlier, according to Argus estimates. Favourable weather conditions for urea utilisation early in 2024 reduced urea stocks in the country last year. Urea stocks in Australia are healthy and suppliers started selling cargoes in May for delivery in 1-3 months' time because of sluggish local demand. This has led to at least one supplier running out of supply for prompt sale and delivery after buyers entered the market this week. The tight supply for prompt delivery of urea likely supported the surge in domestic urea prices over the past week. By Tom Woodlock Price of granular urea fca Geelong (A$/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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