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アーガスのバイオ燃料ソリューションは、原燃料から最終燃料まで、世界の再生可能燃料サプライチェーン全体にわたる詳細な価格と市場分析を提供し、地域のバイオディーゼル、エタノール、原燃料市場などに関する価格と重要な洞察を提供します。
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India readies for 2027 SAF blending mandate
India readies for 2027 SAF blending mandate
Mumbai, 8 June (Argus) — India is gearing up for a mandatory 1pc sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blend from 2027, triggering a rush among market participants to secure feedstocks and scale up domestic production. The country is on track to implement blending targets of 1pc by 2027, 2pc by 2028, and 5pc by 2030. Domestic SAF plants have been gearing up by securing international certification and efforts to secure consistent feedstock supplies. Indian state-owned Bharat Petroleum's (BPCL) refinery in Mumbai received the ISCC CORSIA certification for SAF production via the used cooking oil (UCO) co-processing pathway, it announced at the end of May. The SAF production facility is expected to become operational by the end of 2026, but the company has not disclosed the planned production capacity. This certification allows SAF produced at the plant to be used by airlines to meet their greenhouse gas reduction obligations under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia). Upstream firm Indian Oil's (IOC) Panipat refinery became the first in the country to achieve the ISCC CORSIA certification in August 2025 and was expected to begin producing SAF from UCO later that year, with an initial production capacity of 35,000 t/yr. But the project has been delayed and is now expected to start in the second half of this year, a source close to the matter told Argus . Besides ramping up co-processing of waste oil feedstocks to produce SAF, several Indian firms have announced ambitions of producing neat SAF through the hydro-processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway. IOC recently approved a joint venture with M11 Energy Transition to develop a $110mn SAF project in Paradip, Odisha, using the HEFA pathway. In January, Essar Future Energy disclosed plans to build a 800,000 t/yr SAF and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) plant in the Gujarat state's Devbhumi Dwarka district. The hydrotreated biofuels produced will have both ISCC EU and Corsia certification. Plants have also been preparing by taking the initiative to secure adequate waste feedstock supplies for HEFA SAF production — often a key constraint to realising projects. Feedstock UCO can be domestically procured through hotels, restaurants, and households, but domestic supply is still at a nascent stage, lacking infrastructure to streamline collection and require collaboration between companies and government authorities for efficient supply. Mangalore Refinery (MRPL) in May issued a tender for the supply of 35,000t of Indian UCO for SAF production, to be delivered over a period of one year between 1 September 2026 to 31 August 2027. Given domestic supply limitations, Indian producers are also seeking feedstock from overseas. Imports are allowed if plants are located in free-trade zones and producing for export, although the government prefers to limit imports to support energy independence. India has been consistently procuring food waste oil (FWO) from China for biodiesel production, and could begin using these volumes for SAF production. FWO is considered an advanced feedstock under the EU's Renewable Energy Directive. Shipping data firm Kpler reported flows of 143,533 cargoes of FWO from China to India in 2025, with all purchases made by MRPL's New Mangalore Refinery plant. Hydrotreating-grade FWO typically commands a premium of 50-100 yuan/t or $5-10/t over hydrotreating-grade UCO fob China, which Argus last assessed at $1,200/t on 5 June. Participants are also considering feedstock imports from southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia. Argus last assessed strait of Malacca UCO at $1,170/t fob on 5 June. Alcohol-to-jet ambitions Ethanol is also drawing attention as a feedstock for SAF because of oversupply in the domestic market Ethanol can be converted into SAF through the alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) pathway, which involves converting ethanol into hydrocarbons and refining it into molecules suitable for blending with aviation fuel. But this process is resource intensive, which can make ethanol-based SAF less competitive for airlines because of higher costs. India's ethanol production capacity stood at 19.53bn litres/yr as of 31 October 2025, data from the Department of Food and Public Distribution show. This capacity is expected to be sufficient to help meet the country's SAF targets and support the ethanol industry, which is facing weak demand. Achieving a 5pc SAF blending target by 2030 would require about 700mn litres/yr of SAF, according to the oil ministry, while industry experts estimate the requirement at nearly 500mn litres/yr. Despite a wave of recent ATJ plant announcements, the technology could take years to completely become fully established. IOC had announced ATJ-SAF production capacity in collaboration with US startup LanzaJet, targeting a production capacity of 86,800 t/yr. The plant is expected to become operational by March 2028. LanzaJet owns the world's first fully commercial, large-scale ATJ-SAF plant in Georgia, US, which began production in November 2025 following several years of delays. Biofuels firm GPS Renewables in April announced collaboration with Lummus Technology on an ATJ project at Pudimadaka, Andhra Pradesh. The plant is expected to produce 1,800 t/yr of SAF and is scheduled to begin operations by March 2029. By Nikhil Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australian bioLPG set to meet half of demand by 2050
Australian bioLPG set to meet half of demand by 2050
Sydney, 5 June (Argus) — Australia's growing bioenergy sector could supply more than half of national LPG demand by 2050 in a best-case bioLPG scenario, energy advisory firm Blunomy said at the Gas Energy Australia forum in Sydney this week. But output is likely to remain constrained by limited production pathways and ongoing policy uncertainty. BioLPG is produced as a co-product of several fuel pathways, including alcohol-to-jet (ATJ), hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) processes used to manufacture sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel (RD). Several SAF and RD projects are under development in Australia — some expected to start before 2030 — and early modelling from Blunomy outlines the potential scale of bioLPG output across these pathways. In a best case scenario assuming full capture of bioLPG, production would reach about 24,000 t/yr by 2030, rising to around 257,000 t/yr by 2040 and roughly 300,000 t/yr by 2050, meeting about 52pc of projected LPG demand, a Blunomy representative said. Closing the remaining 48pc gap would require dedicated renewable liquid gas (rLG) pathways, including power-to-liquids technologies designed specifically for LPG output. Expanding Australia's bioenergy mix to include co-processing, biogas-to-LPG, residue-to-dimethyl ether (DME) pathways will also be critical, the firm said. Cost remains another key constraint. A 400,000 t/yr HEFA plant could produce around 20,000 t/yr of biopropane, 5pc of capacity, but refining and handling the gas requires complex and capital intensive distillation, refrigeration and logistics, a representative from Australian bioenergy producer Jet Zero said. As a result, commercial viability will depend on securing offtake agreements and stronger support from both government and industry to scale production and reduce costs, the firm said. Limited policy support for primary fuels — SAF and RD — has left comparatively little focus on bioLPG as a co-product. But some progress has been made this week. Australia's government-backed GreenPower scheme will launch a low carbon liquid fuels (LCLF) certification programme in 2028 , covering SAF, RD, biodiesel and bioLPG. The scheme, first announced in August last year, held stakeholder consultation earlier in 2026 and will develop certification frameworks in 2027. It will be based on a book and claim model with tradeable certificates, while demand-side support and mandates remain under consideration. By Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Panama Canal sees El Nino slowing transits next year
Panama Canal sees El Nino slowing transits next year
New York, 4 June (Argus) — The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) does not anticipate the expected 2026 El Nino weather phenomenon to materially impact vessel transits at the Panama Canal through the end of the year, but it could create the need for water-saving measures in 2027, according to an update it shared in late May. The same weather pattern was responsible for the 2023/2024 drought that encouraged the ACP to enact draft restrictions from early 2023 that severely reduced transits via the freshwater canal. This ultimately shifted the Panama Canal from its traditional first-come, first-serve basis to its current pre-booked transit slot/supplemental auctions model. But the timeline in 2026 is dissimilar to 2023, a year in which the ACP had already enacted its first draft restrictions by 1 March 2023. These were focused on the largest and newest of the transit locks that lift vessels from the lower sea level into the higher freshwater canal, the Neopanamax locks. Draft restrictions mean vessels need to carry less cargo to sit higher in the water, allowing the ACP to further retain freshwater within the waterway overall. The draft restrictions for these larger vessels steadily increased that year as freshwater levels there steadily declined. But focusing on restricting larger vessels ultimately allowed the ACP to avoid restricting draft for the smaller vessels via the Panamax locks that make up 70pc of all transits via the Panama Canal. That retention of freshwater is important during droughts, because the man-made Panama Canal itself is responsible for providing over 50pc of the country's population with potable water, according to the ACP. The ACP reevaluated its operational capacity at the start of the rainy season, which typically begins in May, lasts through June and replenishes steadily declining water levels during the dry season. "Current data does not forecast the need for transit restrictions through 31 December 2026", the ACP said. "History indicates that the most pronounced impacts of moderate or strong El Nino events tend to be reflected more clearly in the subsequent year. Accordingly, operational projects for 2027 are already being developed." The ACP highlighted four water-saving measures that had contributed to higher average water levels in the man-made lakes, Gatun and Alhajuela, that feed the freshwater canal enacted in December 2025 alongside a dry season that was "the wettest on record since 1950". These included doubling up on small ships into a single lane when raising them from sea level, use of water-saving basins via the larger Neopanamax locks to effectively recycle some water from exits that would otherwise drain out to the sea, utilizing "interior gates" within the lanes of the locks for vessels smaller than the total size of those lanes to raise efficiency of water usage and the temporary suspension of hydroelectric power generation at Gatun lake, according to the ACP. El Nino? Or 'El Hombre' The severity of weather phenomena like El Nino are famously difficult to predict with accuracy, and the 2026 El Nino weather event, if it does occur, could be on par with the 2023 event or even stronger, according to World Meteorological Association (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. The WMO estimates an 80pc chance of El Nino developing between June-August 2026, with "near or above" a 90pc chance of persisting until at least November. "Although some uncertainty remains about El Nino peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate — and possibly strong," the WMO said. Meanwhile, the NOAA projected in May 2026 that between November, December and January the El Nino had a 37pc chance of hitting "very strong", the highest strength level assessed for the weather pattern. This marked the plurality of all options, with the next highest being "strong" at 30pc probability. The WMO had previously described the 2023-2024 El Nino as peaking at "one of the five strongest on record". A return to this level of severity could upend plans by the ACP of avoiding draft restrictions at the Panama Canal through the remainder of 2026, which would have knock-on effects on shifted global trade patterns. Asian buyers have increasingly relied on Atlantic basin supply, and Panama Canal transits, for energy commodities in the wake of the closure of the strait of Hormuz by Iran. Disrupted Panama Canal transits will create strong upward pressure on freight rates across segments, especially if Mideast Gulf flows remain largely cut-off from the global market when drought again grips Central America. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Maruti Suzuki launches India’s first flex-fuel car
Maruti Suzuki launches India’s first flex-fuel car
Mumbai, 4 June (Argus) — Indian automaker Maruti Suzuki launched its first flex-fuel vehicle (FFV) in Delhi today, to support the country's aims to expand its ethanol blending programme beyond 20pc (E20). The newly launched flex-fuel Wagon R ZXi MT can run on gasoline as well as a variety of ethanol blends of up to 80pc ethanol. India currently mandates 20pc ethanol blending and has recently unveiled plans to raise blending levels, proposing the introduction of E85 and E100 sales. The Bureau of Indian Standards in May introduced specifications for higher ethanol blends, covering E22, E25, E27 and E30 fuels. The move follows repeated calls from India's ethanol lobby to promote FFVs, which are required to run higher ethanol blend ratios above 20pc. Most cars in India manufactured from 2023 onwards can run on E20, but there is currently no blanket approval from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for blends beyond E20. The launch is a historic milestone, India's minister for road transport and highways Nitin Gadkari said. More models will be launched, he added, suggesting introducing E100 ethanol pumps. Further rollouts of such vehicles will depend on customer demand and the success of the current model, a company executive said. By Nikhil Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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