Phosphates
Overview
The global phosphates market has witnessed increasing volatility, in response to military conflicts, political tensions and changing market dynamics. Price fluctuations have continued to buffet the market, with increasing demand from south and Southeast Asia the main regions driving consumption growth. Rising raw material prices and improved affordability have lifted prices once again.
Phosphates' usage is also not solely limited to fertilizers. Battery-material suppliers are increasingly seeking to source phosphate rock and specialty phosphates-based products to meet the rapidly rising demand for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries for electric vehicle production.
Our extensive phosphates coverage includes DAP, MAP, TSP and SSP, as well as raw materials phosphate rock and phosphoric acid, with assessments also spanning feed products MCP and DCP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the phosphates market and incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including sulphur and ammonia to provide the full market narrative.
Argus support market participants with:
- Daily and weekly phosphates price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of processed phosphate and phosphate rock prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest phosphate news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global phosphate industry.
Ethiopia’s EABC still needs up to 400,000t DAP in 2025
Ethiopia’s EABC still needs up to 400,000t DAP in 2025
London, 9 May (Argus) — Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses (EABC) will close a tender to buy 425,390t of DAP on 13 May. Argus estimates it needs to secure the majority of this volume to meet the country's phosphates demand for the 2025 application season. Across all tenders to buy DAP that EABC opened between August 2024-May 2025, the importer awarded 1.16mn t across 18 cargoes. Of this awarded total, Argus estimates only up to 750,000t is likely to be delivered to Ethiopia in a timely manner. This is because some of these awarded cargoes — largely Chinese — did not have firm backing from producers. And the bulk of the awarded Chinese cargoes — which made up almost half of all the awarded cargoes — were not shipped while Chinese producers focused on covering domestic demand. In recent years, Ethiopia had imported phosphate in the form of NPS and NPSB through EABC tenders, generally all from Morocco. But in August 2024, ahead of the 2025 domestic season, EABC switched from importing NPS to asking for DAP 18-46. In its last tender to buy NPS, issued in August 2023, EABC asked for around 1mn t of NPSB and 332,000t of NPS containing 37.7pc and 38pc P2O5, respectively. On a P2O5 basis, the 2023 NPS tender asked for a total of around 1.1mn t of DAP-equivalent. This implies EABC needs to line up a further 350,000-400,000t of DAP, assuming a similar demand for P2O5 as last year. Argus line-up data shows 1.046mn t of NPS shipped from Morocco's Jorf Lasfar to Djibouti in the 12 months following August 2023. On a P2O5 basis, this is probably equivalent to only around 900,000t of DAP. EABC would need to buy 150,000-200,000t more to reach this level. Chinese DAP will probably dominate offers into EABC's 13 May tender. After a hiatus of around six months, Chinese suppliers will likely be able to apply for customs inspections under the CIQ system from mid-May for DAP and MAP cargoes. This implies Chinese DAP exports will resume from as early as late May, in time to meet EABC's requirements. Time running out for Ethiopia's season EABC is likely to struggle to secure the remaining DAP needed before the end of Ethiopia's domestic season. Planting during Ethiopia's Meher — the main rainy season — broadly spans from March to June. In its latest tender to buy DAP, closing on 13 May, EABC asked for a loading period up to mid-July. In 2024, the final cargoes under EABC's 2023-24 tender to buy NPS had already arrived in Djibouti by that time. Under the 23 April and 13 May EABC tenders, cargoes loading in June — particularly from closer origins like Saudi Arabia — could still arrive in time to service the tail end of Ethiopia's DAP season. But the bulk of the country's application season will likely have been missed by then. EABC's next tenders will likely be targeting supply for the 2026 domestic season. DAP is more expensive Tender awards are limited by EABC's allocation of funds for DAP before offers are collected. The importer received eight 60,000t offers ranging from $696.27-748.00/t fob with 30 days of credit in its 23 April tender, and awarded only the lowest offer before scrapping the tender and issuing a fresh one. It rejected revised offers in its 20 February and 25 March tenders, which were above its counterbids at $625/t fob and $647.19/t fob, respectively. Awards in the 13 May tender will likely remain difficult because prices in the global DAP market have risen. DAP prices in India — the global DAP benchmark and a key competitor to Ethiopia — are now around $720/t cfr, up significantly from $590/t cfr at the beginning of August 2024. DAP could go elsewhere Any DAP which Ethiopia does not acquire will find willing buyers elsewhere in south and southeast Asia. India began May with around 1.64mn t of DAP in stock — well below a comfortable 2mn t minimum — and will need to boost imports to build its inventories. Bangladesh will likely issue a private-sector tender in the coming weeks, probably seeking around 500,000t or more of DAP. China is traditionally its main supplier, especially through its private-sector tenders. Demand in southeast Asia has generally seen an uptick because of high rainfall, and many buyers have been holding out for the resumption of Chinese exports. DAP prices have reached $700-715/t cfr southeast Asia on latest sales, but offers are climbing higher. And Pakistan will likely step into the import market to secure tonnes for July-August arrival, ahead of the peak of its domestic season from the end of the third quarter. EABC received offers for Jordanian and Saudi Arabian DAP loading in May in its 23 April tender. It rejected the offers, allowing India to buy probably the same cargoes at $719.50/t cfr earlier this month. By Adrien Seewald Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden sells DAP at $720/t cfr India
Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden sells DAP at $720/t cfr India
London, 8 May (Argus) — Saudi Arabian phosphates producer Ma'aden has sold around 55,000t combined of DAP to two Indian importers at $720/t cfr for loading on one vessel in May. Argus understands that the buyers are Indorama and Chambal. The price is broadly in line with the sale of 45,000t of Jordanian DAP to Hindalco at $719.50/t cfr , and nets back to $708-709/t fob Ras al-Khair. It is up by $20/t from Ma'aden's last sales to India earlier this week . By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India's Hindalco buys Jordanian DAP at $719.50/t cfr
India's Hindalco buys Jordanian DAP at $719.50/t cfr
London, 7 May (Argus) — Indian fertilizer importer Hindalco has bought 45,000t of Jordanian DAP at $719.50/t cfr from a trading firm. The cargo will ship from Aqaba in early June, destined for India's west coast. The price is almost $20/t higher than Saudi Arabian producer Ma'aden's sale of 50,000t of DAP each to Indian importers Indian Potash (IPL) and Coromandel (CIL), reported earlier this week . There are no days of credit included in the concluded price. The trading firm probably bought the cargo at around $696/t fob for loading at the end of this month. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — The period of MAP and DAP prices trading near parity will be short-lived because newly-imposed US import tariffs could amplify MAP supply woes, market participants told Argus . MAP and DAP prices have traded in close proximity since early January, diverting from the significant MAP premium seen last spring and summer when a surplus of DAP was imported into the US. After limited MAP barge trading in March, activity accelerated at Nola this week as it became clearer that all non-North American phosphate imports would face at least 10pc import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump starting last week. The Nola MAP price was assessed at a midpoint of $636.50/st fob this week, up by $9/st from last week, while DAP was assessed $12.50/st higher at $632.50/st fob Nola. Despite the "reciprocal" tariffs on certain phosphate producing countries being lowered to a universal 10pc this week by Trump for 90 days — in line with the original tariff imposed on other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Australia last week — the remaining levy is still enough to deter vessels from coming to Nola, sources said. In response, the Nola MAP price has averaged a $5.75/st premium to the Nola DAP price for April so far, flipping from a $3.88/st average discount in March. That is still a far cry from October 2024, when the Nola MAP price averaged a $61.45/st premium over the Nola DAP. From August through November, the Nola MAP price was 13pc higher on average than DAP. US market participants expect the premium to expand in the coming months as MAP is the preferred product of most farmers during the fall application season, potentially impacting buying decisions for that period. The US from July through February has imported 759,000 metric tonnes (t) of DAP, down by 26pc from the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. This lapse in imports for the start of 2025 was an initial driver in DAP's rising premium over MAP. In comparison, MAP imports for the same period have totaled roughly 853,000t, up by just 5pc from the year before. But at least 290,000 t of MAP will need to be brought into the US between now and the start of the summer to equal out with the tonnage imported for the full 2023-24 fertilizer year ahead of fall applications. That is a task that may not be easily achieved given the new tariff on most phosphate imports. One buyer this week said they could consider switching usual MAP demand toward an alternative NPS product heading into October and November given the difficult supply outlook for the US. "We are very much in wait and see mode, trying to see how tariffs evolve and how it works its way into the market in terms of price," another buyer said. The significant premium MAP held last fall also limited overall phosphate applications conducted by farmers, therefore raising the bar for the amount of phosphate fertilizer farmers will need to put into the ground later this year to replenish soil nutrients. By Taylor Zavala US DAP/MAP barge prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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