Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Mexico’s auto output up, exports down in Dec
Mexico’s auto output up, exports down in Dec
Mexico City, 9 January (Argus) — Mexico's light-vehicle production rebounded in December after several months of declines, while exports continued to weaken on trade uncertainty. Automakers produced 243,961 light vehicles in Mexico in December, an 8.5pc increase from the same month in 2024, statistics agency Inegi reported on 9 January. This follows an 8.4pc decline in November and marks the first month to show annual expansion since July, coming in a year marked by trade uncertainty with the US placing blanket 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods in March. Mexico's auto output reached 3.95mn in 2025, only 0.9pc below the 3.99mn produced in 2024 — the highest level for any year on record, positioning 2025 output as the second highest, said Mexican automaker association AMIA. Mexico exported 227,262 light vehicles in December, down by 15pc from a year earlier, while full-year 2025 exports fell by 3pc to 3.39mn units from 2024. Still, AMIA noted that 2025 marked the fourth-highest year for exports on record. Domestic light vehicle sales rose by 5pc in December to 154,450 units, Inegi reported. This put full-year sales at 1.52mn — a 1.4pc increase over 2024, making it the third-best year on record for sales, AMIA said. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sabic to sell European business to Aequita: Update
Sabic to sell European business to Aequita: Update
Adds detail on Sabic write down in para 2 London, 8 January (Argus) — Saudi state-controlled Sabic will sell its European petrochemicals and polymers assets to Germany-based private equity company Aequita for $500mn, it said today. The transaction will be fully funded by loans from Sabic that are repayable "based on future cashflows, resulting from synergies between the divested Sabic business and other European olefins and polyolefins assets". The companies anticipate the deal closing in the fourth quarter. Sabic said that it would record a SAR10.8bn ($2.88bn) non-cash write down as a result of the divestment The acquisition includes Sabic's production facilities in Teesside, UK, Geleen, the Netherlands, Gelsenkirchen, Germany, and Genk, Belgium. This includes an operating cracker in Geleen, Sabic having closed another cracker there, and a cracker in Teesside. Sabic said the sale allows it to "exit structurally competitive disadvantaged assets" and help it to "refocus financial resources and management attention towards growth areas where [it] has clear competitive advantages". Sabic said it would export products to Europe and the Americas from the Middle East, although the sale agreement includes all related commercial functions. Aequita is in the process of building a scaled olefins and polyolefins business. It is already acquiring olefin and polyolefin assets from LyondellBasell . It could have options to extend, with various assets up for sale including BP's integrated refinery and cracker complex in Gelsenkirchen, which is a key supplier to Sabic's polymer production at the same site. Sabic also said today that it will sell its engineering thermoplastics division in the Americas and Europe to Mutares, another German private equity company. Sabic European chemical and polyolefin assets Country Location Product Capacity ('000t) UK Teeside LDPE 415 Germany Gelsenkirchen PP 320 Germany Gelsenkirchen HDPE 220 Germany Gelsenkirchen LLDPE 300 Netherlands Geleen Ethylene 690 Netherlands Geleen Propylene 405 Netherlands Geleen HDPE 150 Netherlands Geleen LDPE 375 Netherlands Geleen PP 550 Netherlands Geleen Butadiene 120 Netherlands Geleen Benzene 170 Netherlands Geleen MTBE 160 Belgium Genk PP compounding 180 Source: Sabic Aequita olefins and polyolefin assets, post-Sabic and LYB completions Country Location Product Nameplate capacity ('000t) Netherlands Geleen Ethylene 675 Germany Munchsmunster Ethylene 345 France Berre Ethylene 456 Total ethylene 1,476 Germany Gelsenkirchen HDPE 270 Netherlands Geleen HDPE 150 Netherlands Geleen HDPE 150 Germany Munchsmunster HDPE 320 United Kingdom Wilton LDPE 400 Netherlands Geleen LDPE 470 France Berre LDPE 320 Germany Gelsenkirchen LLD-HDPE 300 Total PE 2,380 Geleen Netherlands Propylene 485 Munchsmunster Germany Propylene 250 Berre France Propylene 250 Total propylene 985 Germany Gelsenkirchen Polypropylene 325 Netherlands Geleen Polypropylene 350 Netherlands Geleen Polypropylene 250 Spain Tarragona Polypropylene 270 Spain Tarragona Polypropylene 120 United Kingdom Carrington Polypropylene 230 France Berre Polypropylene 340 Total PP 1,885 Source: Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Asia energy storage to accelerate in 2026
Viewpoint: Asia energy storage to accelerate in 2026
Singapore, 7 January (Argus) — Stronger government signals and new industry initiatives to support energy storage systems (ESS) in Asia-Pacific are set to accelerate deployments, creating ripple effects across the battery and lithium market in 2026 as participants eye a new growth engine. ESS deployment remains uneven across Asia-Pacific. China accounts for 88pc of the region's 85GW capacity in 2024, according to industry group Energy Institute. The remainder is concentrated mainly in Australia and South Korea. These countries aim to scale up ESS buildout further. China is targeting 180GW of capacity by 2027, while South Korea plans to reach 2.22GW capacity by 2029. Australia has committed A$500mn ($337.75mn) to expanding local battery manufacturing. Other Asian nations are also picking up pace. Vietnam is targeting up to 16.3GW of ESS by 2030, while Malaysia launched its first 400MW auction this year. Governments are increasingly supporting integrated renewables and battery projects. India and the Philippines awarded such projects this year; Australia is auctioning dispatchable clean power contracts , and Malaysia intends to do this year, according to lawmakers. "In Asia-Pacific, while spot markets exist in some jurisdictions, most markets still lack mature price signals and ancillary service frameworks needed for merchant energy storage investment," nonprofit EnergyTag's Asia Pacific head Shailesh Telang told Argus . ESS deployment is still primarily backed by tenders, subsidies, regulated tariffs, or state-supported procurement, Telang noted. "Over time, market forces can take over, but today policy remains the primary driver," he said. Industry initiatives could further support growth. Regional advocacy group Fessia launched in September and will initially focus on smoothing policy for ESS deployment and bankability in Vietnam and the Philippines. Corporate standard-setter Greenhouse Gas Protocol is also consulting on switching from annual to hourly matching of clean power purchases . The requirement could spur demand for nighttime clean energy — and, in turn, batteries. But the clause is hotly debated and could feature leeway for smaller industries and emerging economies. Meanwhile, the South Korean government's first ESS central contract market auction in 2025 drew intense interest, selecting eight operators out of 51 proposals for 563MW of ESS capacity — largely concentrated on the mainland. A second auction round followed later. South Korea's ESS momentum, driven by its 2029 capacity target, aligns with domestic battery makers' pivot from electric vehicles. Top battery maker LG Energy Solution's (LGES) plans to produce lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) ESS batteries domestically, citing the domestic energy ecosystem, starting with 1GWh. South Korean battery makers' ESS focus will likely intensify as the US EV market slows. Leading firms such as Samsung SDI, LGES, and SK On have all redirected resources to tap the ESS market, particularly in the US, given the data centre and renewable energy build-out. Their once EV-dedicated lines are increasingly repurposed to produce ESS as EV market uncertainty lingers. LFP reality sets in Chinese-dominated LFP chemistry continues to see surging adoption in South Korea , which has firmly stepped into the space and closed multiple LFP ESS supply deals in 2025. But China's dominant position in LFP still appears immovable, thanks partly to the scale of its domestic ESS and EV markets. The Chinese government is on track to more than double its new energy storage capacity to 180GW by the end of 2027 from 2024, it said in an action plan . Strong growth persists among Chinese domestic energy storage firms such as Eve Energy, Cornex, Envision, Great Power Energy and Technology, and Hithium, commented a Chinese battery recycler — though the sector remains overshadowed by industry giant CATL. Anticipation of robust ESS growth in China for 2026 — where Argus heard estimates between 30-100pc across multiple analysts and market participants — reflects varying degrees of optimism. Yet, one consensus stands out among market participants: ESS growth is confirmed and is dominating lithium market discussions near the end of 2025, supporting lithium prices and injecting fresh hope for market expansion. By Joseph Ho and Liang Lei Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Waste feedstock demand grows with RED III
Viewpoint: Waste feedstock demand grows with RED III
The Hague, 5 January (Argus) — European waste feedstock demand is set to rise in 2026, supported by higher targets under the EU's new Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and the Netherlands' shift to greenhouse gas (GHG)-based mandates. The Netherlands is moving to a GHG savings target without multipliers, while Germany is phasing out double-counting of certain fuels made from feedstocks listed in Annex IX Part A (9A) of RED III. As a result, GHG savings of biofuels and their feedstocks will become the key compliance driver in both countries next year. Caps on Annex IX Part B (9B) feedstocks — such as used cooking oil (UCO) and tallow categories 1 and 2 — are pushing obligated parties towards 9A feedstocks, broadening and fragmenting the sourcing pool. UCO supply and pricing outlook Demand looks well supported heading into 2026, driven by rising mandates and EU-wide frameworks outside RED III, such as ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime, now entering their second year. Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers are expected to dominate UCO procurement this year, with strong margins and firmer obligations pulling more feedstock into hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathways. Most market participants expect UCO prices to remain broadly stable into the first quarter of 2026, with negotiations pointing to similar levels as late 2025. Some upside risk could emerge if China brings online a planned 500,000 t/yr of SAF capacity in 2026, boosting domestic UCO demand and pushing seaborne prices higher. At the same time, additional Chinese SAF supply — not subject to EU anti-dumping duties unlike HVO and biodiesel — could pressure European prices lower, tightening the SAF/UCO spread and squeezing margins. UCO's high GHG savings continue to underpin demand even as double-counting disappears from Dutch compliance, though it remains in Mediterranean countries in 2026. European UCO methyl ester (Ucome) producers will be squeezed if UCO costs rise, but Germany's removal of double-counting for most 9A feedstocks could support some domestic Ucome demand. Advanced feedstocks gain traction Higher RED III 9A sub-targets are accelerating advanced biofuel uptake and reshaping a fragmented feedstock landscape. Buying interest for 9A-listed food waste oil (FWO) rose in the fourth quarter of 2025, alongside steady demand for soapstock acid oils (SSAO). Forestry-based crude tall oil (CTO) is gaining traction on strong Nordic supply and new co-processing investments, including Neste's European Commission-funded project in Finland . Technical corn oil (TCO), a high GHG-savings ethanol by-product, continues to expand beyond Germany, where it is classified as advanced and eligible for quota generation. But treatment remains uneven across the EU — TCO is not listed as advanced in the Netherlands, with the Dutch Emissions Authority yet to clarify its status. Cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) is also drawing attention as a marine blendstock and co-processing feed. Regulatory uncertainty persists over cover and intermediate crops — such as camelina and carinata — as their use depends on how member states classify them under RED III during national transpositions. Tighter Pome oil outlook Palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil faces regulatory pressure across Europe, including in Ireland, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands, as authorities deepen investigations into traceability and origin verification. Ireland excluded Pome-based advanced biofuels from receiving additional renewable fuel certificates from 1 July last year, while Portugal removed ISP energy-tax exemption for Pome oil and empty palm fruit bunches, though both retained double-counting status. Germany's cabinet-approved RED III draft allows crediting of Pome-based biofuels placed on the market before 2027, reversing expectations of a full exclusion in 2026. The additional year could stimulate compliance-driven buying, levelling the playing field across feedstocks. This regulatory change may lead to firmer demand in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, a key entry point for feedstock flows into Germany. Supply uncertainty remains. Indonesian policies to divert material into the domestic biodiesel pool have already firmed prices, with further constraints expected as the country moves toward a B50 biodiesel blend programme in the second half of 2026 and advances plans to scale waste-based SAF output to 1mn kl/yr by 2030. With limited new collection capacity and sustained European demand, Pome oil is expected to stay structurally tight in 2026, supporting a higher price floor. By Anna Prokhorova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.