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Energy security backs stalled fossil fuel shift
Energy security backs stalled fossil fuel shift
The Hormuz crisis has sparked interest in quick wins that could also have long-term benefits, writes Caroline Varin Edinburgh, 23 October (Argus) — Talks on transitioning from fossil fuels are unlikely to progress in official UN Cop 31 summit negotiations in Antalya, Turkey. But energy security concerns resulting from the US-Iran war are keeping the topic firmly on the international agenda. Initiatives such as a global roadmap to move away from fossil fuels, which the Brazilian UN Cop 30 presidency will present at this year's Cop 31 summit, will largely be dealt with outside of negotiations where decisions are taken by consensus. Major fossil fuel producers, which pushed back on the topic in Brazil last year, argue the transition was sufficiently addressed at Cop 28 in 2023 and that negotiations should focus on cutting emissions and not their sources. Discussions have stalled since Cop 28 concluded with a historic agreement on fossil fuels . This year may not be the time for transition discussions to be included in official Cop negotiations, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) senior policy advisor Natalie Jones says. Such talks would "toxify" agenda items and probably result in more deadlock, she says. "That is not to say that formal negotiations are devalued, but it's a realistic assessment of where we are at." Phasing out fossil fuels remains critical and will be discussed at Cop 31, Dutch climate minister Stientje van Veldhoven said, adding that more countries will announce plans in Antalya. But this will happen as part of the informal summit's action agenda, where stakeholders meet to advance implementation. Turkey and Australia — presiding over Cop 31 — highlighted the importance of transitioning away from fossil fuels, but have yet to lead by example. Australia is the world's second-largest coal exporter after Indonesia, while Turkey is the seventh-largest coal importer, according to the IEA. "It makes sense to strategically start to plan to overcome the issue of demand decline," IISD's Jones says. "Turkey and Australia could help to show the way. If there are no leaders that step up in this regard, I think it's going to be a real problem." Umit Sahin, head of climate change studies at the Istanbul Policy Centre, does not expect a push from Turkey towards major producers on the question of transitioning away from fossil fuels. "Turkey appears to have decided that [the topic] itself is not a place to go in the formal Cop negotiations and has decided to approach it through electrification — from an end-use point of view," he said. Energy crisis/opportunity But the energy security crisis stemming from the US-Iran war is supporting clean energy development because this field offers quick solutions that will ultimately benefit climate action, IEA executive director Fatih Birol says. Economies reliant on Middle East oil and gas scrambled to secure supplies and implement measures to mitigate disruption — energy conservation, direct subsidies and tax cuts, for example. The crisis has also sharpened political focus on electrification. The crisis is a lesson for consuming countries , and the resulting shift towards electrification will affect oil demand, TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne has said. The IEA puts the global demand reduction since the start of the conflict at more than 1bn bl, driven by steep declines in China . There will be no more turning back from clean energy, utility EDF UK's non-executive chair, Alex Chisholm, told the FT Energy Transition Summit earlier this month. This will not be enough to meet the Paris goals, Birol warned, although he said he is hopeful about an agreement on electrification at Cop 31. Turkey set a goal for its action agenda to increase electricity's share of final energy demand worldwide to 35pc by 2035 . But the call sits outside of formal negotiations. Arab countries have signalled that they see no need for a "universal" agreement under the informal action agenda. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: HGV fuel costs up by over a quarter: Logistics UK
Q&A: HGV fuel costs up by over a quarter: Logistics UK
London, 23 October (Argus) — Logistics UK outlines the increasing fuel costs borne by its members, who make up around half of all lorries on British roads, and how increases in fuel prices are being passed on to customers. But hauliers still see structural problems preventing them from electrifying fleets in the face of higher fuel costs. Its chief executive Ben Fletcher spoke to Argus , and edited highlights follow. What is Logistics UK's call to action in the context of the fuel price crisis facing its members? The Middle East conflict has impacted logistics and supply chains significantly, pushing up the price of fuel and increasing costs associated with managing supply chain disruptions. Since the conflict broke out in February, filling up an HGV has risen from around £750 to well over £1,000, and may go even higher. As logistics costs are embedded in everything we buy, from food and medicine to construction materials, increased costs for businesses directly translate into higher prices for consumers and communities. To reduce the risk of an inflationary impact and drive growth, Logistics UK is urging the Chancellor to maintain the current rate of Fuel Duty and the 5p cut and confirm this will continue into next year. The logistics sector already pays over £5bn a year in Fuel Duty, and even a 1p rise would cost £82.97mn. We are also calling for the reform of business rates, a significant fixed cost for the sector, and explicit recognition of logistics in the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme. Doing so will be a significant step towards addressing the UK's high electricity rates, which will become more important as the decarbonisation transition gets underway. High rates risk dissuading operators from switching to electric fleets and must be addressed urgently. How have Logistics UK members been reacting to the rise in fuel prices? Have commercial operations had to adapt, and have driving behaviours changed? Has this meant that ultimately fewer miles are being driven? The logistics sector is resilient. Even as fuel prices have surged, it has continued to maintain customer service reliability and ensured the delivery of essential goods. Some businesses have responded to the rise in prices by adapting their procurement strategies and monitoring the market more closely. However, as logistics businesses operate on narrow profit margins, and any increases are likely to be passed onto customers, an increase in fuel prices results in higher prices for everyone. Beyond rising prices, are members experiencing any problems obtaining diesel, and how prepared are operators for a physical supply disruption or rationing? The primary issue with fuel is one of price, not supply. The government has reassured industry that the UK benefits from a strong and diverse security of fuel supplies, that it is monitoring stocks and sales closely and that production and imports are continuing across the UK as normal. The government has also confirmed that contingency planning in this area is well established, and that it has a range of measures it can use in the event that supply chains are disrupted. Logistics UK has stressed the importance of timely and clear communication with the sector when required. And are members changing how they buy fuel, for example through longer-term contracts, bulk purchasing or hedging, to reduce their exposure to price volatility? Businesses are adapting to volatile fuel costs through measures including fuel surcharges, more frequent monitoring of fuel prices and lead times and passing additional costs on to customers where possible, although not all businesses have the capacity to do so. But the conflict is not over, and the logistics sector will have to continue managing fuel price volatility, which makes it essential that the government maintains the current rate of Fuel Duty and focuses on keeping the cost of doing business down. Is Logistics UK aware of any fleet operator rationalisations or closures among its own members or elsewhere in the industry because of rising fuel costs? What percentage of overheads do fuel costs now represent? The slim margins the logistics sector operates on make this a very challenging time. Fuel represents one third of a business' operating costs, so increases in fuel drive up overall operating costs. What movements towards electrification has Logistics UK seen among its members, and does the group encourage them to consider integrating electric-powered vehicles into their fleets? The logistics sector is committed to decarbonisation, with operators making significant investments in battery electric vehicles. The light commercial vehicles (LCVs) segment has been particularly successful during the transition, registering 1.17mn on UK roads in 2024, a 34pc increase in the last decade. Major investments in charging infrastructure for electric HGVs has led to the opening of major hubs this year available for the public, alongside dedicated charging at businesses' depots. The first electric HGV crossed the English Channel on a freight train this year, demonstrating its operational viability over long distances, and how eHGVs can play a greater role in the movement of goods between the UK and EU in a safe, sustainable and efficient way. However, major barriers remain that are impeding progress. According to Logistics UK's decarbonisation survey, conducted in 2025, nearly 80pc of respondents are not confident that the government's phase out dates for diesel LCVs and HGVs will be met. This is due to barriers such as insufficient charging infrastructure, long grid waiting times and the absence of a co-owned industry and government roadmap that outlines clear timelines for the transition. Any decarbonisation approach taken will need to recognise the multimodal nature of the logistics network, as different transport modes are facing the same challenges of cost, technology readiness, infrastructure delays and fuel availability. Business group Logistics UK champions the logistics sector, the backbone of the UK economy and global trade, providing a unique, authoritative voice for its members. As the only trade association representing the whole industry, it supports more than 22,000 members, operating in road, rail, waterways, sea and air freight, in ports, airports and warehousing, as well as the customers of freight services such as retailers and manufacturers. The group delivers industry representation, services and thought leadership to support a sector that is critical to economic growth, employing 8pc of the UK workforce, contributing £175bn in annual GVA and enabling over £1 trillion of international trade. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tight presidential runoff in store for Brazil
Tight presidential runoff in store for Brazil
Sao Paulo, 23 October (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been narrowing the gap to senator Flavio Bolsonaro's lead in polls, but Lula still lags his challenger just days before the presidential election runoff set for 25 October. Opinion polls indicate that the contest remains close, with right-wing Bolsonaro holding a narrow advantage. A 21 October average of multiple polls by independent polling tracker Votendi put Bolsonaro at 51.2pc and Lula at 48.8pc, a 2.4 percentage-point gap. The margin of error is of 2.2 percentage points. Bolsonaro finished the first round of votes with 47pc, ahead of Lula's 45.16pc, leaving the two separated by about 2.2mn votes. Lula has aimed at undecided voters to narrow the gap, with more than 33mn Brazilians not voting in the first round. He sought to broaden his appeal since the first round by embracing several proposals aimed at conservative-leaning voters, including tax amnesty, debt renegotiation for microentrepreneurs and a lower age of criminal responsibility. He also proposed free weekend bus travel and earlier payment of the federal social welfare program, ideas that might appeal more to his left-wing base. Labor policy has been one of the clearest dividing lines of the campaign. Lula has championed a recently approved reduction in working hours, while Bolsonaro's allies have argued for greater labor-market flexibility, including wider use of hourly employment contracts. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has focused on the economy. He promises to cut R200bn-250bn ($39.8bn-49.7bn) from the federal budget, which financial markets view favorably. He has also promised to allow individuals to suspend repayments on personal debts for six months and for businesses to hold off for as long as a year. While the election campaigns have featured little debate over energy , investors remain focused on potential implications. A Lula victory would likely reinforce the government's approach to energy transition policies, including support for biofuels and renewable energy investment. Bolsonaro has generally favoured fewer environmental restrictions and could seek to accelerate licensing processes for agriculture, mining and oil. Energy markets are unlikely to face immediate disruptions under either candidate, given Brazil's importance as a major exporter, but differences in environmental policy and infrastructure investment could influence longer-term prospects. Corruption standoff Corruption allegations have dominated the campaign's final stretch. Bolsonaro has focused on the Operation Car Wash anti-corruption probe, which sent Lula to jail in 2018 on money laundering and corruption counts. He was later acquitted and freed in 2019. Lula's campaign has accused Bolsonaro of money laundering and corruption scandals during the Covid-19 pandemic — when his father Jair Bolsonaro was president. It also has tried to tie him to Rio de Janeiro's militia — illegal mafia-like vigilante paramilitary groups. Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing, saying there is no material evidence of participation in criminal schemes, extortion or the command of paramilitary groups. Lula has further challenged Bolsonaro to disclose his banking and telephone records to prove he is clean, saying he would do the same. Bolsonaro responded by demanding records for people close to the president. Lula obliged. A recent Quaest survey found that 52pc of voters disapproved of Bolsonaro, compared with 47pc for Lula. The same polling shows that 44pc of voters fear a Bolsonaro return to power, against 42pc who fear a Lula re-election. Institutional impact The runoff's result will have lasting consequences for Brazil's institutions, as Bolsonaro promises to revamp the judicial system and the constitution. Changes would include abolishing the right to re-election for executive branch offices and extending presidential and gubernatorial terms to five or six years from the current four. He says he would also promote changes to the supreme court's structure and powers, redefining the relationship between branches of government. Overhauling the judicial system or parts of the constitution would require the backing of large congressional majorities. Brazil also held legislative elections on 4 October, with Bolsonaro's Liberal party securing sweeping victories . It will hold 121 seats in the 513-member lower house and 28 in the 81-member senate. Therefore, Bolsonaro would likely face little resistance to enact changes. The next president will nominate four or five supreme court justices. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Moraes is seen as a Lula ally and emerged as a leading figure in the judiciary, especially for his role in high-profile investigations involving Bolsonaro and his allies. Those included the one that sent Jair Bolsonaro to jail for 27 years for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election following his defeat to Lula. Flavio Balsonaro would also likely attempt to win amnesty for his father in case he wins. Foreign policy Bolsonaro would probably pursue closer relations with US president Donald Trump after tariffs strained ties under Lula. His victory would add Brazil to a regional shift towards the right, following conservative electoral gains elsewhere including in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador. But it could weaken Brazil's claim to leadership in developing economies globally and diminish its role in international climate negotiations. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: JetBio to produce renewable diesel from ethanol
Q&A: JetBio to produce renewable diesel from ethanol
Sao Paulo, 22 October (Argus) — Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producer JetBio has redesigned its first planned plant, to be built in Paulinia, in Brazil's southeastern Sao Paulo state, to include renewable diesel production from ethanol. The company's chief executive, William Moore, said the project will be the first facility in the world capable of producing renewable diesel from ethanol at a commercial scale. The project will use Honeywell UOP's technology to convert ethanol into those two renewable fuels. The new model will allow the plant to switch from maximum sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production to maximum renewable diesel production, both with no co-products, and the switch can be made within a few hours, according to Moore. At maximum SAF output, the facility would produce close to 770,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr from approximately 1.4mn t of ethanol (31,068 b/d). In maximum renewable diesel mode, output would be closer to 700,000 t/yr. JetBio plans to invest $2bn in the project, with a final investment decision expected in the first quarter of 2027 and start-up potentially from mid-2030. Edited highlights from the interview follow. Is JetBio planning to direct renewable diesel output primarily to Brazil's domestic market, or is it also eyeing international markets? We are applying to create a ZPE (Brazilian free-trade zone) and the requirement is 80pc of our product has to be exported. We are going to be living within those constraints, but even in that 20pc for both SAF and renewable diesel, we think there is strong demand in Brazil for both. The beauty of renewable diesel, while it may be a little bit more expensive, you can still get to greater than 66pc GHG reduction all the way down to 95pc-100pc, depending on what ethanol we are sourcing and if we are using biomethane instead of natural gas for heat and hydrogen. It offers the decarbonization benefits to the local market in Brazil without those companies having to make big capital investments to change over their fleets to burn ethanol or change over their bunkering infrastructure or their fueling infrastructure in order to utilize it. So far, we have seen strong interest from maritime — that would be bunkering in Santos and Paranagua —, from mining, heavy on-road transportation and agriculture. Brazil imports fossil diesel, and there is a strong argument that why would Brazil want to import all that fossil diesel when they could use locally produced renewable diesel that has a much lower carbon footprint? Now it all comes down to price, but our goal is to be the lowest-cost producer of SAF and now renewable diesel in the world at the lowest carbon intensity that has access to Brazilian markets and export markets. When we are in service, we think that Brazilian ethanol will be the most competitive green molecule in the world. And we're just converting it into two other products that can be utilized by hard-to-abate industries. Have ethanol producers shown interest in this part of the project? One thing that we are talking to ethanol producers about is would they be interested in a tolling model where they would supply the ethanol to our plant in Paulina, and for an upgrading fee we would deliver back to them renewable diesel or sustainable maritime fuel that they could sell directly to consumers that they have already established a relationship with. It has just been transformed into a much more energy-dense and pure drop-in fuel that does not require any blending and does not have storage limitations. It is a perfect replacement for the fossil diesel that they are already consuming. Is this technology adaptation driven by a change in the outlook for the SAF market? Are you seeing any bottlenecks in that market? Our view has not changed on the SAF market. We are just excited that we can access the renewable diesel market as well. We see the world being structurally short of SAF, especially non-HEFA SAF, in 2030 and beyond. I think what you have to remember here is this is the largest biorefinery of its kind that is going to be built anytime soon. From an addressable market standpoint, this just gives us an additional optionality that we can provide. By Maria Lígia Barros Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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