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Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand
Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand
London, 19 December (Argus) — Paving activity may strengthen in some European and north African markets in 2026, but several others are expected to see continued declines in bitumen demand. Germany could lead any recovery, market participants said, as a new government plans to expand and maintain the road network. The country — once Europe's bitumen powerhouse — had a weak 2025, but paving work is expected to lift consumption from mid-2026. German bitumen demand has fallen by more than 20pc since 2021, while France and the UK are down by over 25pc in the same period. Budget constraints and high inflation drove these declines. Sweden, Norway and Denmark — already demand drivers in 2025 — could strengthen further in 2026. Road budgets are set to rise as governments prioritise infrastructure and the value of well-maintained highways, possibly linked to higher defence spending as Nato strengthens in Europe. North Africa has also drawn European Mediterranean surplus cargoes , and market participants expect demand from the region to increase next year, led by Algeria, Morocco and some Libyan consumption. Elsewhere, there is little cause for optimism. In France, most participants expect 2026 demand to be weaker than in 2025. With the government beset by regular upheaval and parlous public finances, road spending seems an unlikely priority. Several other northwest and central European countries will also see steady to lower bitumen consumption in 2026. Meanwhile, prospects for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remain slim, so a large upswing in Ukrainian import demand looks unlikely next year. Export opportunities outside Europe also appear limited, as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East remain well supplied and demand there stays slow. South Africa, now reliant on imports, is more likely to source from the Mideast Gulf or Pakistan than from the Mediterranean. The prospects of shipping product to the US could improve in the coming months, with Mediterranean bitumen values currently firm relative to crude and fuel oil. But large volumes seem unlikely. Some Mediterranean cargoes moved to the US last year, but the trend was short-lived. In the bitumen freight market, several new larger tankers will enter service in 2026, increasing vessel availability in what will still be a weak market. This could weigh on freight rates but help offset higher costs from the EU ETS scheme, which comes fully into effect in 2026 after its 2024 implementation. Bitumen prices fell in 2025 and are expected to stay under pressure through winter, before seasonal gains from March 2026. Markets should see greater strength relative to fuel oil in summer as bitumen demand typically rebounds then. Demand for bitumen was generally weaker across most European countries in 2025 than in 2024, weighing on prices. Budgets came under pressure and political challenges contributed to a lack of focus on infrastructure and road maintenance spending. Bitumen prices hit historic lows in 2025, partly offsetting inflation-driven increases in building, equipment and material costs. By Jonathan Weston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Korrektur: Diesel in 2026 teurer als erwartet
Korrektur: Diesel in 2026 teurer als erwartet
In der ursprünglichen Version wurde die CO2-Abgabe inkorrekt angegeben. Dies wurde sowohl in der Tabelle als auch in der Grafik korrigiert. Hamburg, 18 December (Argus) — Händler bieten B7-Diesel für Januar mit einem Aufpreis von 10 €/100l bis 17 €/100l an, teurer als von Argus berechnet. Das ist der bisher höchste Preisanstieg zum Jahreswechsel, der durch eine Erhöhung der CO2-Abgabe und THG-Quote verursacht wurde. Argus hat einen theoretischen Aufschlag von 8,50 €/100l für B7-Diesel berechnet (siehe Grafik). Ein möglicher Grund für den deutlich höher ausfallenden Aufpreis für B7 ist, dass Händler die THG-Kosten aufgrund anhaltender Unsicherheiten anders berechnen als Argus . Das Bundeskabinett hat am 10. Dezember über die Umsetzung der Erneuerbaren Energien-Direktive (RED III) der EU in deutsches Gesetz abgestimmt. Dadurch herrscht im Markt mehr Klarheit mit Blick auf die gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen in 2026. Zuvor dürften die Preisen für das kommende Jahr vor allem durch die Unsicherheit bezüglich der genauen Umsetzung von RED III getrieben worden sein. Die THG-Quote wird 2026 von aktuell 10,6 % auf 12 % steigen, weshalb für das Inverkehrbringen fossiler Kraftstoffe mehr THG-Zertifikate vorgewiesen werden müssen. Bis zur Abstimmung am 10. Dezember gingen Marktteilnehmer davon aus, dass fortschrittliche Kraftstoffe künftig nicht mehr doppelt auf die Erfüllung der THG-Quote angerechnet werden dürfen. Dies hat sich nun bestätigt. Der künftige Wegfall der Doppelanrechnung könnte das Beimischen von Biokraftstoffen attraktiver machen und Preise für sowohl Biokraftstoffe und die Übertragung von THG-Zertifikaten erhöhen. Marktteilnehmer rechnen außerdem mit einem Rückgang der Biokraftstoff-Importe aus Asien, wodurch die Quotenerfüllung und somit auch fossile Kraftstoffe in Deutschland teurer werden könnten. Grund hierfür ist zum einen die geplante Abschaffung der Vertrauensschutzregelung , die Käufer unrechtmäßiger THG-Zertifikate vor Aberkennung schützt. Auch herrschte noch Unsicherheit darüber, wie genau die Unterquote für erneuerbare Kraftstoffe nicht-biogenen Urpsrungs (RFNBOs) — wie etwa e-Fuels und grüner Wasserstoff — gestaltet wird. Ein Entwurf vom November beinhaltete bei Nichterfüllung der RFNBO-Unterquote eine Pönale von etwa 120 €/GJ, statt der zuvor vorgeschlagenen 70 €/GJ. Dies wurde mit der Kabinettssitzung am 10. Dezember ebenfalls bestätigt. Auch bei der Einpreisung der CO2-Abgabe für das nächste Jahr sehen sich Händler weiterhin mit Unklarheiten konfrontiert. Einige Händler verwenden für Kalkulationen aktuell einen CO2-Preis von 68 €/t CO2e. Darüber hinaus wird auch die Unsicherheit bezüglich des Auktionsverfahrens eingepreist, da die Auktionen erst im Sommer beginnen und die konkreten CO2-Kosten bis dahin nicht eindeutig sind. Manche Händler planen daher zusätzliche Rücklagen, um etwaige Nachzahlungen decken zu können. Die CO2-Abgabe wird im kommenden Jahr von einem Festpreismodell bei aktuell 55 €/t CO2e in ein Auktionsverfahren übergeleitet, bei dem der Preis einer Emissionsberechtigung zwischen 55 € und 65 € schwanken kann. Eine Emissionsberechtigung entspricht dabei einer Tonne CO2-Äquivalent. Unternehmen, die bei Auktionen leer ausgehen, können nachträglich Emissionsberechtigungen zum Festpreis von 68 € nachkaufen. Außerdem könnte im Sekundärmarkt für Unternehmen, die nicht an Auktionen teilnehmen, der Preis noch höher liegen. Einige Inverkehrbringer halten sich aufgrund dieser regulatorischen Unklarheiten weiterhin mit der Bekanntgabe von Januarpreisen zurück, was die Unsicherheit im Markt zusätzlich verstärkt. Mit dem Kabinettsbeschluss vom 10. Dezember könnten Händler ihre Preisgestaltung für Januar konkretisieren. Für Heizöl liegen die gemeldeten Aufschläge etwa zwischen 2,50 €/100l bis 4,50 €/100l und stimmen somit ungefähr mit den Berechnungen von Argus überein. Von Marcel Pott CO2-Abgabe je 100l € Kosten pro t CO2 B0/HE B7 E5 E10 45 € 12.04 11.22 10.26 9.73 55 € 14.72 13.72 12.54 11.90 65 € 17.40 16.21 14.82 14.06 68 € 18.20 16.96 15.50 14.71 *B7 mit 6,8 l FAME; E5 mit 4,8 l Ethanol und E10 mit 9,66l Ethanol THG- Erfüllungskosten je 100l € B0 B7 E5 E10 2025 9,13 9,70 6,83 6,74 2026 16,33 14,99 11,68 10,72 *Erfüllung der THG-Quote durch Blending und Zukauf von Zertifikaten, Erfüllung des RFNBO-Mandats durch Pönale Kumulierte Kosten THG-Quote und CO2 Abgabe Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026
Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026
London, 18 December (Argus) — Ethanol prices in Europe look to be well supported in 2026, and demand for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions saving product is expected to grow. This comes as the EU's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is rolled out in more member states, and supply looks to be shortening in a market that has historically been well balanced. The Netherlands will transition to a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-saving mandate under its transposition of RED III in January. This means an end to double counting of ethanol produced from advanced feedstocks toward national mandates. Germany, another major European market, is also set to remove double counting for advanced biofuels. This being the case, demand will rise for crop-based ethanol, a staple of gasoline blending in Europe, especially for material with higher GHG savings. This has coalesced in increased interest in the Argus -assessed average 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol in recent weeks, with a first spot trade made on the Argus Open Markets (AOM) trade initiation platform on 16 December. Trading on these standards is the projected approach of obligated parties in some key markets as they seek to fulfil their new, higher GHG emissions savings mandates in the most economical way possible. In the year to 1 December, Argus has assessed even higher GHG savings — minimum 90pc — crop-based ethanol at an average discount of just under €180/m³ to RED Netherlands waste-based ethanol. Since the launch of the Argus ' RED Germany waste-based ethanol assessment in June, again to 1 December, the discount for high GHG savings crop-based ethanol has averaged just over €176/m³. These spreads may narrow as the projected market dynamics unfold. Supply crunch A supply gap has opened in Europe since the signing of the UK-US trade agreement in May. EU imports of UK undenatured ethanol have since collapsed, down by around 56pc on the year in May-September according to Eurostat data. The deal saw the UK remove all import tariffs on up to 1.4bn l/yr of US ethanol, which led directly to UK producer Vivergo shutting its 416mn l/yr Saltend plant in August . The EU's imports of US undenatured ethanol are also down on the year, by nearly 13pc in May-September, based on Eurostat data, as US ethanol flows are diverted to the UK . In the Netherlands, imports have been made permanently more expensive by the government ruling in October that only undenatured ethanol would be eligible for compliance under the national annual renewable energy obligation in transport. This amendment to its EU RED III transposition package means that essentially all imports of fuel grade ethanol for use in the country will be subject to the maximum import tariff of €192/m³, and not the €102/m³ tariff for denatured ethanol. These developments supported ethanol prices near two-year highs in October, and whether they stay elevated depends on imports arriving from other suppliers like the US or Brazil. EU imports of undenatured ethanol from the UK and the US between May and September were down by 44pc, or 72,300t, on the same period in 2024. Stock levels in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) ports were low for much of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The US' production capacity of 52.4mn t/yr means it remains a likely candidate to fill the EU's supply gap, but this depends on demand in the UK and the prices buyers are willing to pay there. Alternatively, Brazil may be able to fill the void with production capacity of more than 78.1mn t/yr. The Mercosur-EU trade deal is likely to be signed soon and the terms would effectively open the arbitrage window permanently for ethanol producers in Brazil to send material to Europe. But implementation of the agreement could take several years. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix
Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix
Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japan's gasoline consumption will continue falling because of its decarbonisation drive, but the country's gasoline consumption is unlikely to reach zero as gasoline-powered cars and hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs) account for a vast majority of newly registered passenger cars. Japan's gasoline sales declined at least over 2016-24, with the exception of a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03pc in 2022, data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show. The country's gasoline sales totalled 330mn bl (904,100 b/d) in 2016, falling to below 280mn bl (767,100 b/d) in 2024. The country's transport sector accounted for 19.2pc of total CO2 emissions in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, according to Japan's environment ministry. Half of the transport sector's CO2 emissions came from gasoline in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Tokyo renewed its global warming countermeasures plan in February 2025, which reiterated its target of having all new car sales be "electrified vehicles" by 2035 and to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions through the vehicle lifecycle by 2050, in efforts to abate emissions. But these "electrified vehicles" do not only refer to fully electric-powered EVs nor fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) but also include gasoline-consuming HEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This means that Japanese passenger car owners will likely remain dependent on gasoline, even as gasoline consumption declines, given that Japan's preference for hybrids is likely to sustain its momentum for the foreseeable future. The country's gasoline requirement will fall by 2.4pc to 260mn bl (712,300 b/d) in the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year, compared with the 2025-26 level, based on Japan's trade and industry ministry Meti's outlook. This downtrend is expected to continue by declines of 2.1-2.5 pc/yr at least until 2029-30, largely because of higher fuel efficiency and wider use of HEVs, Meti said. The number of newly registered passenger cars, including imported cars, totalled slightly below 2.4mn units over January-November 2025, data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) show. Out of this total, gasoline-consuming HEVs accounted for 60pc, and gasoline cars hold a 32pc share. Gasoline-powered cars and HEVs have jointly accounted for around 90pc at least since 2020. The share of HEVs in newly registered cars has also grown consistently every year, from 37.1pc in 2020 to 61.1pc in 2024, mostly replacing the share of gasoline cars, while the share of EVs has stalled at 0.6-1.7pc of the total of registered units every year over the same period, data from the JADA show. "The hybrid trend is likely to remain strong going forward. Compared with the time when it seemed the global shift to EVs would happen decisively and rapidly, the momentum now appears to have slowed somewhat," Japan's trade and industry minister Ryosei Akazawa said at an interview with reporters, including Argus , in October. The shift towards EVs has not been as strong as expected, which could have benefited gasoline car makers. But US tariffs on Japanese automobiles likely eroded the profitability of Japanese automakers, with 15pc of their domestic car output exported to the US in 2024, according to Meti. The US tariff rate was lowered to 15pc from 27.5pc in September, but is still far higher than 2.5pc, the rate before US president Donald Trump's additional 25pc automobile tariff took effect in April. To support Japanese automakers given the challenging tariff environment, Tokyo could freeze its environmental performance tax — a levy of 0-3pc — imposed on car owners at the point of acquisition depending on automobile features, such as fuel efficiency. This move could pave the way for gasoline-powered vehicles to regain momentum or pose obstacles to the expansion of EV cars' market share in the coming years. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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