Heavy olefins
Overview
Global butadiene production and demand are dominated by northeast Asia. Although the region continues to add both supply and derivative projects, there have been market inefficiencies that have resulted in deep sea imports into the region. Accurate and timely analysis will help producers, consumers and traders navigate these turbulent times.
The C5 and hydrocarbon resins industry has experienced a fundamental shift in the past few years, going from several acute shortages to a glut of products in the markets. Producers, industrial chemicals companies, chemical distributors, traders and technology providers all need to understand how this will play out, especially in light of new entries into the global market. Argus’ C5 and Hydrocarbon Resins Service is the only global service of its kind.
Our experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest heavy olefins news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global heavy olefins industry.
Viewpoint: European BD to face tighter supply in 2025
Viewpoint: European BD to face tighter supply in 2025
Houston, 30 December (Argus) — European butadiene (BD) supply is expected to tighten next year, according to market participants, because of scheduled steam-cracker closures and steady demand. European domestic demand this year helped spot prices maintain a 5-7pc premium to the monthly contract price (MCP) until December, when spot prices fell to parity with the MCP. But the lower BD MCP in December protected Europe's position as the lowest cost region after three consecutive price rollovers, even as US and Asian prices fell. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic on consumer demand for early 2025. One producer noted that interest for spot volumes remains strong into early next year and export sales should remain resilient, especially once buying interest picks up after the Lunar New Year. European BD exports — which primarily flow to the Asia-Pacific region with one-offs to the US— were stable at nearly one shipment per month from April-December, although they were down from the prior year. Europe's BD exports totaled about 109,700 metric tonnes (t) so far this year, but there are ongoing discussions for one additional long-haul shipment loading in late December. That said, the spread between Europe and the US is forecast to remain closer to parity, narrowing the premium European sellers have obtained from moving shipments eastward. Both planned and unplanned cracker turnarounds in the US may raise prices there and open space for Europe's coastal producers to periodically capture preferred access to Asian buyers, independent of logistical bottlenecks. Currency, crackers may pressure demand Currency fluctuations may dent buyers' confidence in the coming year as a stronger US dollar lifts costs for imports, affecting selling prices of European-origin exports in dollar terms. The outcome of the US presidential election rallied the dollar against the euro and other currencies, as markets price in expected tariffs from the new US administration. The comparative strength of the US economy also drove the rally. Strong European domestic demand could undercut potential BD exports as the region's supplies gradually transition from net-long to more balanced, with ongoing structural changes transforming Europe's chemical business. The closure this year of two steam crackers in France and the Netherlands along with the planned shut down of two more crackers in Italy will reduce regional supply of crude C4, a key BD feedstock. Buyers in Italy will need to rely more heavily on Mediterranean imports of crude C4 in tandem with BD to maintain derivative operations. Cracker operators next year are likely to keep throughput curbed while running lighter feedslates, limiting availability of additional volumes of crude C4 and BD. Rail logistical constraints will linger into 2025 with at least three BD consumers depending more on this mode of transportation. The European market could see additional restructuring next year, with at least one producer weighing a review of its asset portfolio. Market participants also are watchful for announcements of unexpected closures. BD producers in the region are also concerned about price volatility for natural gas, citing weaker margins. Dutch TTF on a day-ahead basis averaged €44.66/MWh month-to-date in December, rising by 27pc from the same period a year earlier at €35.24/MWh. Dutch TTF on a day-ahead basis reached a year-to-date peak on 21 November at €48.58/MWh. Higher natural gas prices are partially due to continued complications in gas transport and supply and to accelerated storage withdrawals. By Joshua Himelfarb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: US BD demand awaits 1Q rebound as risks loom
Viewpoint: US BD demand awaits 1Q rebound as risks loom
Houston, 24 December (Argus) — US demand for butadiene (BD) is expected to increase in January, but buyer sentiment for the remainder of the first quarter remains uncertain. Inventory restocking in January is expected to draw down excess supply and provide near-term price support, according to market participants. Derivative manufacturers aim to rebuild inventories following earlier-than-normal destocking initiatives this year. Many buyers employ standard inventory control management strategies to avoid paying higher end-of-year inventory taxes, particularly in Texas. Others cut costs to improve year-end financial statements. Domestic demand in February and March is less clear, as market participants question whether the market will rebound from persistently low demand at the end of 2024. US BD prices on a contract basis fell by 12pc during the fourth quarter , owing to weak demand and oversupply. Demand was depressed by BD consumer turnarounds in October, seasonal slowdowns between November-December and trade pressures tied to derivative imports. US tire shipments this year are expected to rise by 2.1pc to 338.9mn units, surpassing the record set in 2021, according to the US Tire Manufacturers Association. However, market participants along with US trade data reference a jump in tire imports from Asia-Pacific. Both Bridgestone and Goodyear have said low-cost tire imports and structural changes in segment profitability across the Americas are eroding their market share, fueling capacity rationalization, asset sell-offs and plant closures in the region. Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) is another segment at risk of stronger competition from low-cost, Asia-origin imports. Ineos Styrolution plans to permanently shut down its ABS plant in Addyston, Ohio, in 2025 because the facility cannot compete with imported material. "Over the past few years, we have seen the ABS market become increasingly competitive, particularly with growing competition from overseas imports," Ineos Styrolution chief executive Steve Harrington said in late October. Protectionist trade policies are likely to be a feature of president-elect Donald Trump's second administration, potentially altering business investment decisions and durable goods trade flows. Even if demand does not improve, planned maintenance in the first half of 2025 is expected to tighten BD supplies. A heavy turnaround cycle for steam crackers will concentrate in the first and second quarters, constraining availability of feedstock crude C4. One integrated US Gulf coast producer plans to enforce BD allocations while its assets are offline for planned maintenance. A separate, non-integrated producer has not announced BD sales controls, based on feedback from its customers. This same BD supplier was short on feedstock supplies for parts of this year, with the crude C4 merchant market illiquid in North America. A third producer has scheduled a cracker turnaround starting in January, but no indications emerged that would limit term volumes from its BD unit. Reduced BD supply during cracker maintenance is likely to pull volumes away from the export market until the second half of 2025. Export spot cargoes in the fourth quarter more than doubled from the third quarter, serving as a critical outlet to clear the domestic market of surplus BD supplies, even as lower export prices pressured US margins. By Joshua Himelfarb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU affirms 12-month deforestation delay
EU affirms 12-month deforestation delay
Brussels, 3 December (Argus) — Negotiators for the European Parliament and EU member states have provisionally agreed on delaying the implementation of the EU's 2023 deforestation regulation by one year. Fast-track adoption can now take place with a plenary vote expected on 16-19 December and later approval by EU ministers. The EU's council of ministers noted that the provisional agreement does not affect the substance of the existing deforestation rules. The final text, provisionally agreed, does not retain a "no risk" category, put forward by parliament's largest centre-right EPP party. Parliament had narrowly accepted the EPP proposal for the "no risk" category. Backing down on the amendment now allows the EU to proceed to EUDR adoption and publication in the bloc's official journal before the end of the year. Due diligence obligations set by the EU's 2023 deforestation regulation require operators and traders to ensure listed commodities and derived products, sold in or exported to the EU are "deforestation-free". Products include those made from cattle, wood, cocoa, soy, palm oil, coffee and rubber. The European Commission said it aims to finalise the country benchmarking system "as soon as possible but no later than 30 June 2025". And an information system where firms register due diligence statements will enter into operation on 4 December. Parliament's lead negotiator for the deforestation law, Christine Schneider, also pointed to a commitment by the commission to an "impact assessment and further simplification" for low risk countries or regions. "From 2028, countries practising sustainable forest management and showing no deforestation will have the opportunity to be exempted from unnecessary red tape," said Schneider, a member of the German centre-right EPP. The Centre-left S&D group said the system of "no risk" countries would have created an "unfair double standard", dividing EU member states into different risk categories. Negotiators firmly rejected this approach, the group said. "It was clear all along that their half-baked amendment proposals had no chance of success with the council and the commission," said Delara Burkhardt, German S&D negotiator for the deforestation law. Citing reasons of legal certainty, EU states quickly came out in favour of just a one year delay , agreeing with the commission's original proposal. Speaking to parliament on 3 December, the EU's director general for trade Sabine Weyand said robust commitments to halt deforestation in South America, as of 2030, and to ensure adherence to the Paris climate Agreement, are also "essential" elements of the EU's free trade agreement (FTA) with Mercosur countries — Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and now Bolivia. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Bridgestone, BB&G, Versalis partner on tire recycling
Bridgestone, BB&G, Versalis partner on tire recycling
Houston, 3 September (Argus) — Tire manufacturer Bridgestone has signed a joint agreement with BB&G and Versalis to develop a closed-loop tire supply chain. The companies agreed to collaborate on research and technical solutions to scale end-of-life tire (ELT) recycling for the production of new tires. In doing so, they aim to advance pyrolysis technology and market circular polymers for tires. This is part of a push to improve sustainability within the synthetic rubber sector. Technology firm BB&G transforms ELTs into renewable raw products using a thermal conversion process of pyrolysis. It inaugurated a commercial tire pyrolysis oil (TPO) unit, located in Fatima, Portugal, in July 2024. Chemical company Versalis will incorporate BB&G's pyrolysis oil over the next few months into expanding its range of products — including elastomers and polymers — derived from chemical recycling and bio-based feedstocks. With that, Bridgestone in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) looks to employ these circular elastomers into manufacturing new tires. The first batch of tires is anticipated in early 2025. "At Bridgestone, we have set a goal of working with 100pc sustainable materials by 2050, and recycling and reusing products is an important part of this," said Bridgestone's EMEA president Laurent Dartoux, which also supports initiatives "on co-creating new and environmentally responsible ways to maximize the complete lifecycle of our tires." By Joshua Himelfarb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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WhitePaper - 24/02/04Adiponitrile: Growing supply glut, sluggish demand forces a Texas plant closure
There have been a number of ups and downs to the adiponitrile market in the last decade. The most recent blow is a closure at a site in Texas. Butadiene expert Angie Joe walks you through the major events that led to this decision.
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