US rules out military intervention in Venezuela

  • : Crude oil
  • 19/03/01

The US is not considering a military intervention in Venezuela but is instead working to persuade China and Russia to help facilitate incumbent president Nicolas Maduro's exit, US State Department special envoy on Venezuela Elliott Abrams said.

Abrams also confirmed ongoing discussions with the Maduro government, even though Washington holds his rule to be illegitimate. Washington and more than 50 other countries recognize National Assembly speaker Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim leader.

"We are not attempting to do (military intervention)," Abrams said at a briefing today. "We continue to say 'all options are on the table,' because they always are. But anyone who looks at the US policy in Venezuela could not reach that conclusion."

A month after the US administration imposed sanctions on Venezuela's national oil company PdV, Maduro appears firmly in control. The country's senior military forces continue to back him, despite a promise of amnesty from Guaidó and the prospect of relief from targeted US sanctions.

The US administration still hopes that humanitarian aid deliveries to Venezuela from neighboring states will sway the country's military forces to back Guaidó's interim authority. The US Agency for International Development has prepositioned almost 500 tons of food and medicine at border points in Colombia, Brazil and Curacao. Those deliveries are continuing, even though efforts to bring the aid into Venezuela were disrupted on 23 February.

The crisis in Venezuela is turning into a great power competition. Russia has delivered 7.5 tons of medicine and will supply wheat to Venezuela, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said today. Moscow has denounced the US policy and says its ultimate goal is to force a regime change through military means to install a puppet regime.

"I do not think you will see large amounts of additional money put in by Russia and China, but their political and diplomatic support helps the Maduro regime," Abrams said. "We have made the argument, unsuccessfully to date, to both Russia and China that they are not helping themselves." The US argues that only a new government can turn around Venezuela's struggling economy and repay the tens of billions of dollars Caracas owes to Moscow and Beijing.

Guaidó's government has assured foreign investors, including those in Russia and China, that it will honor Venezuela's debt obligations. Caracas sends crude to China as payment for historical loans that Chinese banks made to Venezuela — around $23bn of the $54bn lent is outstanding. A 49.9pc stake in PdV's US refining arm Citgo holding company has also been used by Venezuela as collateral for a loan from Russian state-owned Rosneft, and for a PdV 2020 bond, the only Venezuelan issuance not in default.

"Why does it not occur to you that we have other interests," Russian ambassador in the UN Vasili Nebenzya said after Abrams brought up the repayment of debts at a Security Council meeting earlier this week.

Installing a new executive board and management at Citgo is perhaps Guaidó's one major accomplishment since he declared himself interim president on 23 January.

Guaidó has also appointed an ad hoc administrative board at PdV as part of the effort to protect Citgo, but PdV remains under the control of the Maduro government.

Abrams said that the US continues to revoke visas for senior Venezuelan officials and their family members. And the Treasury Department today added six senior Venezuelan security officials to the US sanctions list, citing their role in obstructing the aid deliveries.

"You will see additional sanctions tied to the behavior of the regime, and you will see more reaction if they engage in additional provocative acts," Abrams said.

Guaidó left Venezuela on 22 February for an aid concert that preceded the failed efforts to transport the food and medicine across the border the following day. He has visited Colombia, Brazil and Paraguay since then. He says he will return to Venezuela soon.

Being locked out of the country would diminish Guaidó already tentative authority, and the US says its priority is to ensure his safe return. "We are concerned about his ability to go home," Abrams said. "If he is arrested, you would see a very big reaction on the part of the people of Venezuela and the international community."

Colombia's foreign ministry today warned of growing threats to Guaidó's life, and warned that the "regime of Nicolas Maduro" would be held responsible if anything happens to him or his family.

The US, meanwhile, maintains contacts with the Maduro government. "Our conversations with the de facto regime are primarily about the safety of Americans," Abrams said. "We have an embassy, and we have 12 Americans in prison," including five former Citgo executives arrested in November 2017.

"In any situation like this, do you talk to the guys who have the guns, who have the power right now? Yes, to protect Americans," Abrams said.


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24/05/02

Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining

Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining

London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell delivered a better-than-expected profit for the first quarter of 2024, helped by a strong performance from its LNG and oil product businesses. The company reported profit of $7.4bn for January-March, up sharply from an impairment-hit $474mn in the previous three months but down from $8.7bn in the first quarter of 2023. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, Shell's profit came in at $7.7bn, 6pc ahead of the preceding three months and above analysts' estimates of $6.3bn-$6.5bn, although it was 20pc lower than the first quarter of 2023 when gas prices were higher. Shell's oil and gas production increased by 3pc on the quarter in January-March and was broadly flat compared with a year earlier at 2.91mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). For the current quarter, Shell expects production in a range of 2.55mn-2.81mn boe/d, reflecting the effect of scheduled maintenance across its portfolio. The company's Integrated Gas segment delivered a profit of $2.76bn in the first quarter, up from $1.73bn in the previous three months and $2.41bn a year earlier. The segment benefited from increased LNG volumes — 7.58mn t compared to 7.06mn t in the previous quarter and 7.19mn t a year earlier — as well as favourable deferred tax movements and lower operating expenses. For the current quarter, Shell expects to produce 6.8mn-7.4mn t of LNG. In the downstream, the company's Chemicals and Products segment swung to a profit of $1.16bn during the quarter from an impairment-driven loss of $1.83bn in the previous three months, supported by a strong contribution from oil trading operations and higher refining margins driven by greater utilisation of its refineries and global supply disruptions. Shell's refinery throughput increased to 1.43mn b/d in the first quarter from 1.32mn b/d in fourth quarter of last year and 1.41mn b/d in January-March 2023. Shell has maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.344/share. It also said it has completed the $3.5bn programme of share repurchases that it announced at its previous set of results and plans to buy back another $3.5bn of its shares before the company's next quarterly results announcement. The company said it expects its capital spending for the year to be within a $22bn-$25bn range. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed signals rates likely to stay high for longer


24/05/01
24/05/01

US Fed signals rates likely to stay high for longer

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers signaled they are likely to hold rates higher for longer until they are confident inflation is slowing "sustainably" towards the 2pc target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc, for the sixth consecutive meeting. This followed 11 rate increases from March 2022 through July 2023 that amounted to the most aggressive hiking campaign in four decades. "We don't think it would be appropriate to dial back our restrictive policy stance until we've gained greater confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably," Fed chair Jerome Powell told a press conference after the meeting. "It appears it'll take longer to reach the point of confidence that rate cuts will be in scope." In a statement the FOMC cited a lack of further progress towards the committee's 2pc inflation objective in recent months as part of the decision to hold the rate steady. Despite this, the FOMC said the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals "have moved toward better balance over the past year," shifting prior language that said the goals "are moving into better balance." The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected. CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks fed funds futures trading, had assigned a 99pc probability to the Fed holding rates steady today while giving 58pc odds of rate declines beginning at the 7 November meeting. In March, Fed policymakers had signaled they believed three quarter points cuts were likely this year. Inflation has ticked up lately after falling from four-decade highs in mid-2022. The consumer price index inched back up to an annual 3.5pc in March after reaching a recent low of 3pc in June 2023. The employment cost index edged up in the first quarter to the highest in a year. At the same time, job growth, wages and demand have remained resilient. The Fed also said it would begin slowing the pace of reducing its balance sheet of Treasuries and other notes in June, partly to avoid stress in money markets. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cenovus boosts oil sands output by 4pc in 1Q


24/05/01
24/05/01

Cenovus boosts oil sands output by 4pc in 1Q

Calgary, 1 May (Argus) — Canadian integrated Cenovus Energy increased its oil sands production by 4pc in the first quarter, led by gains at Lloydminster Thermal and Foster Creek heavy crude assets, and the company plans to boost output further to supply the newly opened Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline. Cenovus pumped out 613,000 b/d of crude from its oil sands projects in Alberta, up from 588,000 b/d in the same quarter last year, the Calgary-based company reported on Wednesday. This was one of the highest producing quarters for Cenovus' oil sands assets since acquiring Husky in early 2021, second only to the 625,000 b/d produced in the fourth quarter that year. Cenovus has a commitment of about 144,000 b/d on the newly completed 590,000 b/d TMX pipeline, which was placed into service on Wednesday , and the company has plans to push upstream output higher over the next several years across its portfolio to meet its commitment. The pipeline nearly triples the amount of Canadian crude that can reach the Pacific coast without first having to go through the US. First-quarter production from the Lloydminster Thermal segment rose to 114,000 b/d, up from 99,000 b/d a year earlier, because of higher reliability, according to Cenovus. Cenovus' Foster Creek production rose to 196,000 b/d of bitumen, up from 190,000 b/d in first quarter 2023. The company plans to bring another 30,000 b/d online at the steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) asset by the end of 2027 through optimization projects. To the north, Christina Lake's first-quarter bitumen output of 237,000 b/d was steady with previous quarters. The asset is expected to get a significant boost by the end of 2025 when a pipeline connecting the project to output from the neighbouring Narrows Lake asset is completed. The 17 kilometer (11 mile) Narrows Lake tie-back will add 20,000-30,000 b/d of bitumen to Christina Lake, which already ranks as the industry's largest SAGD project. The pipeline is 67pc complete and should be placed into service in early 2025, Cenovus executives said Wednesday on an earnings call. Northeast of Fort McMurray, Alberta, new well pads are planned at Sunrise in 2025, where Cenovus also plans to push production higher by 20,000 b/d. Sunrise produced an average of 49,000 b/d in the first quarter this year, up from 45,000 b/d in the same quarter 2023. Cenovus' output company-wide rose to 801,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the first quarter, up from 779,000 boe/d a year earlier. This includes oil sands, natural gas liquids, natural gas, conventional and offshore assets. Cenovus posted a profit of C$1.2bn ($871mn) in the quarter, up from a C$636mn profit during the same quarter of 2023. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tankers can take TMX crude mid-May: Trans Mountain


24/05/01
24/05/01

Tankers can take TMX crude mid-May: Trans Mountain

Calgary, 1 May (Argus) — Commercial operations for the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) crude pipeline in western Canada have officially started today, but tankers will not be able to load crude from the line until later this month. Line fill activities, which began on 16 April, are still ongoing for the C$34bn ($25bn) project that stretches from Edmonton, Alberta, to the docks in Burnaby, British Columbia. About 70pc of the volumes needed are in the 1,181 kilometre (733 mile) line, Trans Mountain said on Wednesday. "As of today, all deliveries for shippers will be subject to the Expanded System tariff and tolls, and tankers will be able to receive oil from Line 2 by mid-May," Trans Mountain said. Aframax-size crude tankers started to take position on the west coast last month in anticipation of the new line. But the inability to deliver crude at Burnaby, while still having to pay full tolls, was a concern raised by several shippers on 23 April. "Trans Mountain must be able to receive, transport and deliver a shipper's contract volume," the shippers said in a letter to the CER. The ability to deliver the crude is "clearly central and fundamental qualities of firm service." The CER in November approved interim tolls for the system that will further connect Albertan oil sands producers to Pacific Rim markets. Shippers will, at least initially, pay C$11.46/bl to move crude from Edmonton, Alberta, to the Westridge terminal in Burnaby, British Columbia. The fixed portion accounts for C$10.88/bl of this and has nearly doubled from a C$5.76/bl estimate in 2017. The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) on 30 April gave Trans Mountain a green light to put TMX into service , ending years of uncertainty that the project would ever be completed. The expansion project, or Line 2, nearly triples the capacity of Canadian crude that can flow to the Pacific coast, complementing the original 300,000 b/d line, or Line 1, that has been operating since 1953. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada’s TMX pipeline ready to move crude: Update


24/04/30
24/04/30

Canada’s TMX pipeline ready to move crude: Update

Adds regulatory approvals received. Calgary, 30 April (Argus) — Canada's 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) crude pipeline can now start moving volumes to the Pacific coast after receiving final regulatory approvals today, more than a decade after the project was first conceived. The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) approved Trans Mountain's final applications on Tuesday, giving the midstream company a green light to put its C$34bn ($25bn) project into service. Trans Mountain had recently maintained its commitment to being ready by 1 May. The expansion nearly triples the existing 300,000 b/d Trans Mountain line that runs from Edmonton, Alberta, to Burnaby, British Columbia. Also expanded was the Westridge Marine Terminal from one dock to three, all capable of loading Aframax-sized vessels. The line will provide Canadian oil sands producers with a significant export outlet without having to first go through the US. Much of the new volume to flow on TMX is expected to be heavy sour crude. Federally-owned Trans Mountain had submitted applications as recent as 15 April for the final section of the pipeline about 140 kilometers (87 miles) east of the line's terminus in Burnaby. The final applications concerned piping, valves and other components at two pipeline inspection device traps and the mainline pipe between the two traps. The traps were added for safety assurance when the operator was allowed by CER to use a smaller diameter pipe as part of the Mountain 3 deviation. Mountain 3 was the last segment of the pipeline to be constructed because of delays relating to difficult terrain while tunneling. The "golden weld" marking the end of construction occurred on 11 April, according to Trans Mountain. A group of shippers last week expressed concern that TMX would not be ready for commercial service by 1 May. The pipeline had been marred by legal challenges and cost over-runs since it was first proposed in 2013 by its then-owner US midstream firm Kinder Morgan. The Canadian government took ownership of it in 2018. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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