Japan is likely to achieve its biomass power generation target in 2030, supported by already approved ample capacity under the country's feed-in-tariff (FiT) scheme. The goal could be reached even despite its forecast of the falling pace of investment in new projects.
The trade and industry ministry (Meti) expects the country's biomass power capacity to increase to 7,230MW in 2030, if the government continues the current support to the biomass power industry. This is within the country's 2030 goal to achieve 6,020-7,280MW of biomass capacity.
The possible 2030 capacity would consist of 4,254MW of woody biomass including palm kernel shell (PKS), 176MW of methane fermentation gas, 492MW of general wastes and others and 2,300MW of any capacities launched before the FiT system took effect in July 2012.
The forecast assumed 2,060MW, or about 40pc of the FiT-approved general woody biomass capacity would start operation by 2030, based on Meti's hearing with industry participants. A total of 22MW of methane fermentation gas and 137MW of general wastes and others, which have so far secured FiT support, are also scheduled for commissioning by 2030.
Japan has approved 8,215MW of biomass power capacity under the FiT scheme by September last year. But the pace of the growth in investment in new biomass power projects is expected to slow over the next decade, pressured by challenges to ensure stable supply of generation feedstock and fuel's sustainability.
Meti has estimated only 457MW of biomass capacity to be approved under the FiT or planned feed-in-premium systems by 2030, of which woody biomass would account for 68pc at 310MW. But the new capacity should increase to 540MW if the government strengthens its efforts to ensuring supply security and sustainability.
Japan plans to expand forests used for biomass fuels to 9mn m³, which is equivalent to 360MW, by 2030, up by nearly 30pc from 7mn m³ in 2019.
The latest biomass forecast does not include the impact of the possible phase-out of insufficient coal-fired power plants, given a lack of details over any scraping schedule, Meti said. It expects that any power plant replacements from coal to biomass could increase after 2030.
Japan's biomass power association has set a target to switch 9,840MW, or 40pc of the potential closure of 24,600MW of ageing coal-fired capacity to biomass-fed capacity during 2030s, although output from biomass-dedicated plants is likely to fall by 20pc compared with coal-fired generators.
