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Unprecedented cost rise batters Al alloy margins

  • : Metals
  • 21/09/21

European aluminium alloy producers are facing huge pressure on profit margins as costs rise swiftly across all raw material markets, and alloy prices will need to rise further to sustain production even as demand from the domestic automotive industry suffers under the semiconductor shortage.

Alloy prices are most influenced by raw material costs, mainly through movements in the price of scrap metal — the primary feedstock for alloy production in Europe. But other costs include silicon and magnesium metal for alloying purposes, as well as gas for smelter furnaces, in addition to general power and logistics costs.

Every one of those costs is currently rising sharply, mostly because of factors external to the European market.

The biggest driver is, unsurprisingly, China. Base metal prices have almost all hit multi-year highs this quarter, mostly owing to strong industrial activity in China since its economy began to recover from Covid-19 lockdowns last year. London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices reached 13-year highs of above $2,900/t this month, up by 16pc from the start of the quarter.

LME aluminium prices affect scrap prices, particularly among the higher grades of scrap such as aluminium wheels, which have a larger aluminium element and fewer impurities than other scrap grades.

Argus' assessment for aluminium wheel scrap delivered to European smelters has risen to €2,000-2,050/t ($2,345-2,400/t) this month, up by 23.9pc from the end of August.

But all scrap prices are rising on strong demand from export markets in Asia-Pacific, predominantly to supply China. Lower-grade scraps have not risen as sharply as the higher grades this month, but have strengthened throughout the year and the consistent driving factor has been high export demand.

European taint/tabor scrap prices have reached €1,400-1,450/t this month, up by 5.9pc from the end of August and by 11.8pc from the start of the quarter.

Meanwhile, prices for the silicon and magnesium units that go into alloy production have rocketed this month on output cuts in China, leading to limited supply held by European traders.

Argus' assessment for 5-5-3 grade silicon is at €4,000-4,200/t ddp, a 15-year high and up by 46.4pc since the beginning of September. This is largely down to China's Yunnan province imposing energy consumption controls for September-December, aimed at reducing its silicon output by 90pc from August levels.

Magnesium prices have reached $5,000-5,150/t delivered Rotterdam, up by 9.7pc from the start of the month.

European gas prices have tripled this year, while the eurozone energy consumer price index has reached its highest level since records began in 1996.

Alloy prices have been rising strongly in response, with DIN 226 alloy reaching €2,100-2,200/t last week, up by 10.5pc from the start of September. Prices are racing higher even as the European automotive market has slowed because of the continuing shortage of semiconductors for vehicles. Strong demand for alloys and scrap, most notably from China but also from European primary aluminium producers looking to boost their environmental credentials, has offset much of the lost nearby demand.

While European alloy producers have sold strong volumes for the fourth quarter to automotive manufacturers, almost all of those contracts include clauses that allow customers to defer delivery, as automotive customers have done repeatedly this year because of slowdowns caused by the shortage of electrical semiconductor parts for vehicles.

No relief in sight

None of the factors driving the market show any sign of going away soon. There has been strong demand for scrap and alloy units from export markets since the start of 2020, and it only took a temporary dip during the initial Covid lockdowns.

The shortage of semiconductors has been an issue throughout 2021 and is expected to last well into next year, which will increase alloy producers' dependence on export markets for alloy sales as they look to offload volumes they will have left to sell after deferments on deliveries to automotive companies.

LME aluminium prices look robust at higher levels, after forward spreads moved into a strong contango in recent weeks and stocks started to fall at LME warehouses. On-warrant aluminium stocks dropped by more than 120,000t in the first two days of this week alone — a fall of almost 15pc.

Silicon and magnesium prices will stay high as long as supply is scarce, and the production outlook depends on China, where a lot of metals manufacturing has been curtailed in recent months because of environmental concerns.

Alloy producers will hope that the semiconductor shortage is alleviated sooner rather than later, or that long-term demand sources can be found elsewhere, because the confluence of high costs that is driving massive pressure on alloy profit margins does not look like it will abate any time soon.


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25/02/12

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico City, 12 February (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4pc in December from the previous month with broad weakness across multiple sectors on tariff uncertainty and weak domestic demand. The result marks the largest monthly decline of 2024 and was weaker than the 1pc decline forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. It followed a nearly flat reading in November. Trade uncertainty and low domestic demand weighed on industrial production in December, said Banorte, with industry "sluggishness" likely through mid-2025. Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), decreased by 1.2pc after rising 0.7pc in November. Transportation equipment manufacturing output, which comprises 24pc of the manufacturing component, has fluctuated in recent months, falling 6.4pc in December after a 3.6pc uptick in November and a 4.4pc decline in October. Despite this, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production and exports in 2024. However, Mexican auto industry associations confirm investment in the sector has begun to slow on uncertainty tied to concerns over potential US tariffs and slow economic growth in 2025. Taking the base case that tariffs do not materialize, Banorte expects manufacturing to rebound in the second half of the year as uncertainty lifts and interest rates fall with rate cuts at the central bank. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, was lower by 1pc in December, following a 0.5pc increase in November. The decline was again driven by the oil and gas production, falling by 2.5pc in December to mark a sixth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons output. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 2.1pc in December with setbacks in all categories. This matched the November result, with Inegi recording declines in construction in five of the last seven months. From a year prior, industrial production fell by 2.4pc in December , while manufacturing fell by 0.3pc and construction declined by 7.1pc in December. Mining was down by 6.2pc. B y James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January


25/02/12
25/02/12

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

Houston, 12 February (Argus) — US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December. The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation. The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month. Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December. Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction. Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc. CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China’s CNGR to end investment in nickel JV with Posco


25/02/12
25/02/12

China’s CNGR to end investment in nickel JV with Posco

Singapore, 12 February (Argus) — Major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material (CAM) precursor manufacturer CNGR will terminate investment in a nickel refinery joint venture with South Korean multi-sector company Posco Holdings, it announced today. The joint venture, Posco CNGR Nickel Solution, will be liquidated after the termination. The decision is part of efforts to reduce investment risks and protect investors' interests in the face of a weak electric vehicle (EV) market. A slowdown in global EV demand has led to slower growth in battery installations in 2024 compared with a year earlier, South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research reported. CNGR and Posco announced plans in June 2023 to build a production facility for nickel and lithium-ion battery precursors in Pohang, South Korea. The plant was intended to have a design capacity of 50,000 t/yr metal equivalent for nickel sulphate and 110,000 t/yr for lithium-ion battery precursors, which was expected to meet demand from 1.2mn units of EVs. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cyclone Zelia threatens Australian Fe, Li, Mn exports


25/02/12
25/02/12

Cyclone Zelia threatens Australian Fe, Li, Mn exports

Sydney, 12 February (Argus) — Cyclone Zelia off Western Australia's (WA) Pilbara coast is on track to make landfall on 13 February, threatening iron ore, lithium and manganese exports from the region. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) expects the cyclone to develop into a relatively rare and extremely powerful category three system on 13 February, as it starts heading towards WA's mines. The Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) will close Port Hedland — Australia's largest iron ore export hub — at 6pm local time (7am GMT) on 12 February, having started clearing ships out of its berths a day earlier. Port Walcott — a smaller export facility to the west of Port Hedland — is also emptying its berths, in preparation for the cyclone. Cyclone Zelia on 14 February will pass over a part of WA where Fortescue's Iron Bridge mine, Mineral Resources' Wodgina lithium mine, Pilbara Minerals' Pilgangoora lithium mine, and three of Atlas Iron's mines are located, according to BoM forecasts. The cyclone will then move south over Fortescue's Christmas Creek and Cloudbreak iron ore mines, the Roy Hill iron mine, and Consolidated Minerals' Woodie Woodie manganese mine early on 15 February, before losing energy and dissipating by the next morning. Cyclone Zelia is the third weather system to disrupt WA's ports this year. Cyclone Sean flooded parts of Port Dampier and forced PPA to close all of its export facilities for two days at the end of January. Ships subsequently started moving out of Port Walcott and Port Dampier over the first week of February because of Cyclone Tahlia, driving Rio Tinto's exports to their lowest point since at least January 2019 . But WA has experienced extreme weather events before. Cyclone Veronica shuttered three WA ports for nearly a week in March 2019 . Cyclone Ilsa in April 2023 also drove PPA to close Port Hedland for two days . The four main iron ore prices that Argus assesses have risen over the last month. Argus' Iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price rose to $105.80/t on 11 February, from $97.90/t on 13 January. By Avinash Govind Iron ore prices $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican steel faces few outlets in wake of US tariffs


25/02/11
25/02/11

Mexican steel faces few outlets in wake of US tariffs

Houston, 11 February (Argus) — Mexican steelmakers, facing sluggish domestic demand, could struggle to find outlets for production after the elimination of US steel tariff exemptions. US president Donald Trump on Monday revoked all exemptions from the 25pc steel import tariff, effective 12 March. Canada and Mexico as part of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) were exempt from Section 232 25pc steel tariffs announced in 2018, along with Argentina, Australia, Brazil, the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK. The renewed 25pc tariffs also include "derivative steel articles" — downstream and value-added products. Mexico also faces the potential imposition of a 25pc all-goods tariff in March by the Trump administration. Originally meant to be imposed on 1 February, the tariff was delayed by 30 days on 4 February. Should the tariff — which only included Mexico and Canada — be imposed at the end of the postponement, US buyers could face a 50pc tariff on Mexican steel. More Mexico capacity looms The gap left by the imminent exit of the US as a free trade partner leaves Mexican steelmakers with few obvious outlets as a slew of incoming capacity expansions are poised to bloat domestic inventories. Mexico produced 18.2mn metric tonnes (t) of steel in 2024 , down from 19.85mn t in 2023 as steelmakers pulled back production to counter weak demand, according to Mexican steel association Canacero. Mexico exported 3mn t of steel in 2024 — 2.3mn t of which went to the US, according to Canacero. That was followed by Canada, which imported just 118,000t in 2024, and Saudi Arabia, which imported 90,000t. Still, Mexican mills are expected to add more than 5mn t/yr of additional steel production by the first half of 2026. About half of that will come from steelmaker Ternium's slab mill in Pesquería, Nuevo León, which is expected in the first half of 2026. The Ternium slab mill's location in northern Mexico was meant to help supply steel to the USMCA region . Some in the market more recently told Argus that the new tariffs would have very little effect on Pesquería's strategy — positing that the slab produced there could be exported to Ternium's facilities in Brazil. Still, Mexico only exported 27,000t of steel to Brazil in 2023 and it was not listed as a top-10 export partner in 2024. Long steelmaker Deacero in 2023 also announced a $1bn expansion over three years to grow production by 1.2mn t/yr. Deacero's expansion, too, was aimed at meeting expected nearshoring-driven demand in the medium and long term. In 2023, long steelmaker Simec announced a new 500,000t/yr rebar mill and Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau in May announced it was exploring sites for a 600,000t/yr special steel mill in Mexico. Slow demand adds further pressure In the absence of overseas demand for steel, Mexican steelmakers could have to look to a shaky domestic market to offload production. Federally funded infrastructure projects like the Tren Maya, the Olmeca Refinery in Tabasco and the Felipe Ángeles airport near Mexico City either wound down or concluded by 2024. The projects took with them a boon in steel demand and production that faded further as buyers were reluctant to commit to tons before the general elections in June 2024. That demand has yet to recover. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October, campaigned partly on the construction of 1mn homes — which would require an uptick in rebar consumption. Sheinbaum is expected to announce her full infrastructure plan on 17 February. The market has few other options for Mexican-produced steel should the government not adopt publicly funded steel-consuming projects as the country faces expectations of slower economic growth this year. Nearshoring efforts, including plans for domestic production of electric vehicles (EVs) from both Chinese EV makers and US automaker Tesla, have stagnated. A wider count of new foreign direct investments in Mexico shrank last year to the lowest level since 2014 . Sheinbaum on Monday confirmed that the Mexican government learned of the steel tariffs from media outlets. Any previously discussed retaliatory measures would come after a clarification of the tariffs, Sheinbaum added. By Marialuisa Rincon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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