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Cop 27: Uganda says it can develop oil responsibly

  • : Crude oil, Emissions
  • 22/11/09

Uganda oil minister Ruth Nankabirwa talked to Argus Media on the sidelines of the Cop 27 UN climate conference about the need for Uganda and Africa to develop its natural resources — oil and gas — in a responsible way to support economies and work towards UN sustainable development goals (SDGs), including ending energy poverty and hunger.

You have heard many times the narrative that the world should begin winding down fossil fuel investment and production, and move towards cleaner energy sources. As a soon-to-be oil and gas producer, what are your thoughts on that? Is there anything that would stop Uganda from further developing its hydrocarbon resources?

Winding down? We are just beginning the development of our natural resources. We cannot begin talking about winding it down. We must get value for our resources so that we can fight for the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) — common goals to achieve a better and more sustainable future — holistically. We are supposed to end hunger. We are supposed to end energy poverty. We are supposed to do a lot of things, and that requires money. Our economies are based on natural resources, how can you begin talking about winding down?

Yes, we have to take care of the environment as we develop our natural resources, and we can do that. Actually, we are going to do it better than those who developed their natural resources many decades ago, because when they began [developing their resources], they had not started to experience the climate change problems. We are at an advantage because we are going to learn from the challenges of those countries that started developing their natural resources long ago.
We have to take care of the environment, we have to do responsible exploitation, but to say that Africa should sit on its natural resources — and we talk about competition with the entire world in value addition, in food security, in infrastructure — that would mean that we will always have to go on a plane, if we get the money, to come and visit the developed world.

In order for us to move forward together in a just manner, let us come up with unbiased research, and come up with technology that can help us capture carbon and at the same time invest in forestation. In Africa we can create big volumes of carbon sinks. If you can get money to do irrigation, responsible agriculture, to do renewable energy into the islands of Lake Victoria and other hard to reach communities, then we will be moving together in the transition. African needs its own agenda, its own agenda in net-zero principles. We must come up with our own roadmap.

You mentioned Uganda can essentially learn from others' past experiences when it comes to fossil fuel exploitation and production and do things better, do these climate issues come up in conversations with TotalEnergies and Chinese state-controlled energy firm CNOOC about your current oil developments, the 40,000 b/d Kingfisher and 190,000 b/d Tilenga fields?

Yes, because they have to follow the laws that Uganda have established. If we say don't flare, then we won't see them flaring gas. If we say don't vent, then we won't allow them to vent the gas. And in any case, the gas is required, we need LPG. We need to move from using coal and biomass into at least LPG.

TotalEnergies is also looking at investing in renewables. We have a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with TotalEnergies where they are going to generate power using solar panels. CNOOC as well is looking at investment in renewables to compensate for whatever they are doing.

But [suggesting we] abandon the projects is something that really annoys us as Africa, because it means people don't want us to develop. We have seen economies developing from their natural resources. I have high hopes that a just transition agenda will be maintained.

What do you hope, as an African nation, will come out of the negotiations over the next two weeks at the Cop 27 UN climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh ?

This Cop, Cop 27, is for Africa. I expect an African voice to tell the whole world that we agree on climate change mitigation because it is a matter of survival. But another matter of survival is our economic survival, which is based on our natural resources. We are not the first and won't be the last. But I can assure you Africa will develop its natural resources in a better way. In a more sustainable way, and a more responsible way, than those who did it before us.

At Cop 26 last year, there was a clear position to move away from fossil fuels. But this year, with the energy crisis the world is facing, do you, as an African nation, hope gas will be welcomed back into the conversation, even if only as a transition fuel?

I think this Cop is going to see reality at play. We need gas. We don't have to go to the laboratories to do research. We need gas, Europe needs gas, Africa needs gas. So, gas has to come back to the table, and banks have to support the development of gas. Investment in gas is very critical. We are trying it in Uganda, where we are importing LPG to replace charcoal and firewood because LPG is better. And we have our plan — we are distributing free gas cylinders to citizens, together with their cooking stoves, so that they will be buying only the gas. We are going to establish a factory to manufacture gas cylinders in Uganda as we wait for our gas to come out in 2025, we are importing gas, because LPG is better than charcoal. Our gas is going to come from the fields we are developing — Kingfisher and Tilenga.

Financing has been a big issue at these Cop meetings for many years now. What are your hopes on the financing front this year, particularly when we're talking about pledges the northern hemisphere made to help fund the transition in the southern hemisphere?

This Cop must see action. Africa needs money. We need to see commitments being implemented, as without detailed commitments from Cop 27, countries are going to be demoralised.

Do you think we'll be having different conversations around finance when we all meet for the Cop conference next year in Abu Dhabi?

I hope so. And I want to assure you that Uganda will be showcasing its agenda in renewables, because we have projects we have been working on. Our LPG project will be at play. We want to use natural gas from Tanzania. I want to convert our power plant which generates 50MW to use natural gas. We have a number of projects we are going to implement, and we hope we'll be able to exhibit these in Abu Dhabi next year at Cop 28.


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25/01/17

Canada's Trans Mountain investigating capacity increase

Canada's Trans Mountain investigating capacity increase

Calgary, 17 January (Argus) — The operator behind Trans Mountain's 890,000 b/d pipeline system in western Canada is looking into increasing its capacity as export congestion looms, while threatened US tariffs may prompt the country to re-examine its broader pipeline strategy. "We have started to identify and investigate opportunities that could improve the throughput efficiency of the system and increase capacity of the pipeline — ideally in the next four to five years," Trans Mountain told Argus on Friday. Federally-owned Trans Mountain would not say how much of an increase it was contemplating, but any plans would be subject to thorough regulatory reviews and approval before proceeding. The system connects producers in oil-rich Alberta to the docks at Burnaby, British Columbia, and its capacity was roughly tripled when the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) was placed into service in May 2024. The increased system has been a popular outlet for shippers, both for selling to US West coast refiners, but also for producers looking to bypass the US altogether and target Asian countries. Trans Mountain is expected to be full by 2028, chief executive Mark Maki told a parliamentary committee in October , as are other lines which have operators like Enbridge also looking to up egress capacity. The laying of new pipe may not necessarily be a big part of these increases as both are looking at making their systems more efficient. TMX is expected to cost about C$34bn ($24bn) after enduring regulatory delays, political and environmental resistance, court orders, wildfires, floods, Covid-19 measures, and rising labor costs caused by competing pipelines since being proposed in 2013. Other proposed export pipelines like Enbridge's 525,000 b/d Northern Gateway and TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East did not get past the approval stage under a federal Liberal government. Alberta premier Danielle Smith on 16 January called on Canada to "immediately start construction on the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines" to decrease the country's reliance on US customers in the wake of threatened tariffs by president-elect Donald Trump. Prime minister Justin Trudeau and all Canadian premiers, except Smith, have not ruled out the use of Canada's energy — most of which comes from Alberta — in retaliation to US tariffs. Smith has been labeled by some as not being part of a unified front for Canada, but she questions where the "Team Canada" approach has been in the past, citing suffocating regulations for the energy industry and decades of transfer payments made to Quebec, Ontario and the Maritime provinces at the expense of Alberta taxpayers. There is precedent for Smith's concerns, referencing a clash between Alberta and prime minister Pierre Trudeau, Justin's father, in 1973 when a federal tax was imposed on Canadian oil exported to the US amid the Arab oil embargo. Conflict peaked again in the early 1980s when the Trudeau government introduced its National Energy Program, which included price controls on domestic oil. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMF upgrades global growth outlook


25/01/17
25/01/17

IMF upgrades global growth outlook

Washington, 17 January (Argus) — The IMF is taking a slightly more upbeat view of the prospects for the global economy, revising upward its expectations for the US economy. But IMF officials are warning about the potential for higher inflation in the US if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his threats to impose broad tariffs on all US imports from Canada, Mexico and China. "Higher tariffs or immigration curbs will play out like negative supply shocks, reducing output and adding to price pressures," IMF head of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. In an update to its World Economic Outlook released today, the IMF projected the global economy will grow by what it called a "stable, albeit lackluster rate" of 3.3pc this year and again by 3.3pc in 2026. The IMF's new 2025 outlook is 0.1 percentage points higher than its 3.2pc forecast in its October report. The IMF expects the US economy, spurred by continued strength in domestic demand, to grow by 2.7pc this year, a 0.5 percentage point increase from its forecast in October. China's economy is projected to grow by 4.6pc this year, up by 0.1 percentage point from the IMF's October forecast. The euro area is expected to grow by 1pc. Last year, the world economy grew by an estimated 3.2pc, compared with 3.3pc in 2023, the IMF said. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including at the Paris-based energy watchdog IEA, to model oil demand projections. Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2pc this year and 3.5pc in 2026, with pricing pressures easing in advanced economies more quickly than in emerging and developing economies. Gourinchas noted that while it is difficult to quantify the effects of the policy changes Trump has vowed to implement, "they are likely to push inflation higher in the near term" relative to the IMF's baseline. Looser fiscal policy or deregulation would stimulate demand and increase inflation, as spending and investment rise. "A combination of surging demand and shrinking supply would likely reignite US price pressures, though the effect on economic output in the near term would be ambiguous," Gourinchas said. IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva and other economists have warned in recent years about the rising tide of protectionist measures implemented by the advanced economies, including the US and the EU. A recent IMF forecast scenario that involves a trade war between the US, Europe and China would reduce the global and US GDP annual growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points in 2025-30, with smaller effects in the eurozone and China. That scenario did not account for a possible trade war between the US and its immediate neighbors, which also has the potential to disrupt an integrated North American energy market. By David Ivanovich and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce


25/01/17
25/01/17

Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce

Dubai, 17 January (Argus) — The Yemen-based Houthi militant group said it will monitor implementation of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Gaza-based Hamas, raising the possibility of a reprieve for shipping in the Red Sea, but will remain prepared for military action if the deal is breached. "Our position regarding the situation in Gaza is linked to the position of our brothers in the Palestinian [armed] factions," Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said in a televised speech on 16 January. "We will continue to monitor the stages of implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and any Israeli [violation], we will be directly ready to support militarily the Palestinian people." Al-Houthi's remarks suggest a halt in his Iran-backed group's campaign against shipping passing through the mouth of the Red Sea and against Israel directly. But with no clarity if he was referring to attacks on Israel or shipping lanes, shipping firms are likely to remain cautious about returning to the Red Sea. The Houthis began attacking commercial vessels with western and Israeli affiliations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden following an escalation of fighting between Hamas and Israel. Al-Houthi said his group have carried out 1,255 operations, including using ballistic missiles, drones and gunboats, since November 2023. But the risk of an attack in the Red Sea remains despite the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, tanker owner Frontline said today. "We [are] all hopeful with the ceasefire, but… any ceasefire will be vulnerable with risk of [a] crew being caught if it breaks," Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad wrote on X. The possibility of an attack has compelled many ship operators to forego the Suez Canal in favor of longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope in the last year, adding time and cost to movement of commodities. Transit of liquid and dry cargoes through the Suez Canal totaled 343mn t last year, less than half the 763mn t in 2023, according to data from Kpler. The ceasefire deal was announced late on Wednesday, 15 January, by Qatar and the US, two of the three countries that have been helping to mediate the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Egypt is the third. Israel's security cabinet will meet today to sign off on the deal, and will send it for approval from the full government. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s oil states led labor market losers in 2024


25/01/16
25/01/16

Mexico’s oil states led labor market losers in 2024

Mexico City, 16 January (Argus) — Mexico's oil and gas-dependent states led state job losses in 2024, driven by a sharp contraction in spending by state-owned Pemex and the completion of the Olmeca refinery, according to energy market sources and state data, even as two-thirds of the country's states posted job growth. Annually, the total employment in Mexico grew by 213,993 jobs in 2024, 67pc fewer than the 651,490 jobs added in 2023, according to the Mexican social security (IMSS) institute's tally of formal jobs, which have full benefits like better access to housing credits and public medical services. The deceleration in the number of jobs created last year adds to signals of a Mexican economy that was cooling as the year progressed, according to economists and energy market sources. "In 2024, the second lowest generation of jobs in the last 15 years was recorded, only after 2020, the year in which the Covid-19 pandemic hit," according to a report from Mexican think tank Mexico Como Vamos. Tabasco state, one of the most important for the energy sector in Mexico, led the reduction in employment among the 11 states that experienced job losses during 2024. Tabasco lost 28,675 jobs over the year, for a 12pc annual decline in employment in the state, according to IMSS data. Twenty-one states, including the capital, posted job growth. Campeche, the state with the second biggest annual percentage of job losses, and Tamaulipas, the other state with a high dependence on the oil sector, also reported significant declines in 2024, with annual formal job losses of 5,952 and 3,120, representing 4pc and 1pc decreases from a year earlier, respectively. These IMSS figures only account for formal jobs registered with the institute, which provide access to medical, pensions, and housing credits, and totaled 22.24mn as of December. The official statistics agency Inegi counts employment nationwide at 59.5mn as of the third quarter last year. Inegi's count of employment includes the informal sector, made up of jobs without social security and other benefits. Inegi's estimates put the informal labor sector at over 54pc of all jobs. According to IMSS, the country lost 405,259 jobs in December compared with November, the largest loss recorded for that month since 2000. Still, December is typically marked by heavy job losses because of seasonal adjustments. But last year the final month's tally was pulled even lower than normal by overall weak hiring over the year, Inegi said, even as total job growth was positive for the full year. While the labor situation in Mexico worsened in 2024 because of the weakening of the national economy, including a sharp depreciation of the peso to the dollar, the decline has hit the states most closely tied to the oil and gas sector and Pemex spending, said Carlos Ramirez, founder of consultancy Integralia. Tabasco hangover "Tabasco benefited greatly from the investment poured into Pemex by the administration of AMLO (former president Juan Manuel Lopez Obrador), Ramirez said. "This is going to change now with the (Claudia) Sheinbaum administration, and the state will suffer a hangover as the new government reduces its support for the oil and gas industry." Still, the national unemployment rate is low, at 2.6pc in November, according to Inegi. And the country added 361,000 jobs in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Inegi's broader base of data. But the economy was slowing in the second half of 2024. Growth in gross domestic product slowed to an annual 1.6pc in the third quarter from 2.1pc in the second quarter, according to Inegi. Inegi's IGAE, an index that tracks the real economy, showed that the Mexican economy contracted 0.73pc in October, as economists lowered growth estimates for the Mexican economy for this year. Pemex chief executive Victor Rodriguez in early October implemented a 20pc cut to the company's upstream budget, aiming to save Ps26.78bn ($1.32bn). This decision, combined with delays in payments for contracts and a halt in new service agreements, severely impacted local companies in Tabasco and Campeche, according to oil services company association Amespac. Some companies announced layoffs as Pemex's financial constraints rippled through the supply chain. Part of Tabasco's workforce reduction could also be tied to the near-completion of the 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery, said Jesus Carrillo, an analyst at think tank IMCO. While the major construction phases have concluded, the facility remains in a testing phase, contrary to Pemex's previous promises of full operations in 2024. Despite the recent downturn, heavy Pemex spending during the administration of former president Lopez Obrador made Tabasco the leading state in job creation between December 2018 and December 2024, Ramirez said. But with the refinery now completed and Pemex projecting further budget cuts for 2025, analysts expect labor market challenges in oil-reliant states to persist. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU 'unlikely' to submit new climate plan to UN in time


25/01/16
25/01/16

EU 'unlikely' to submit new climate plan to UN in time

Brussels, 16 January (Argus) — The European Commission is "unlikely" to present the EU's new climate plan including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for 2035 to the UN by the February deadline, according to EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. "We need a target for 2035 when we walk into [the UN Cop 30 climate summit in] Belem," said Hoekstra. "Whether we have that in February, I think, is unlikely," he said. Countries party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) must submit their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — emissions-cut targets — for 2035 by February. Hoekstra added that the commission will have an "ambitious" 2040 target from which it will derive the bloc's 2035 target. He noted an obligation towards parliament to come up with the 2040 target this calendar year. In December, Hoekstra had told EU environment ministers that the legal proposal for 2040 GHG cuts will come " sooner rather than later ". The commission should in February put out new policy documents on clean industry, affordable energy, and roadmap towards ending Russian energy imports as well as on agriculture. Hoekstra indicated that the commission is looking once again at the carbon border adjustment mechanism that is an "important add-on to prevent carbon leakage" from the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS). "We are indeed going to look into both exports but also simplification," Hoekstra said. The commissioner said that he still "needs to see" whether decarbonisation contracts will also be proposed as part of the forthcoming clean industrial deal, now due on 26 February. Shaky start The EU, alongside Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland, has committed to submitting an NDC with " steep emission cuts " that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. Hoekstra reiterated today the need for "reciprocity" on climate goals from other nations. Cop 28 host the UAE and Cop 30 host Brazil have already submitted their new NDCs, and the UK set a target to cut all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 81pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline during the Cop 29 summit last year. But, although Canada was planning to submit its new plan by February, the planned resignation of prime minister Justin Trudeau and a new election due this year could put the country's climate ambitions at risk. Canada in December set a new 2035 climate goal, aiming to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 45-50pc by 2035, from a 2005 baseline. Similarly, US president Joe Biden's administration has at the end of last year set a new GHG emissions reduction target for the world's second largest emitter — pursuing economy-wide emission cuts by 61-66pc below 2005 levels by 2035. The country has already submitted a new NDC, but the move is unlikely to hold much weight with president-elect Donald Trump taking office later this month. Some countries including Indonesia and Brunei have highlighted challenges in providing new targets, such as the lack of common models between sectors, financing and economic growth. Colombia indicated that it will submit its NDC by June next year at the country seeks to address the "divisive issue" of fossil fuels, on which its economy is dependent. By Dafydd ab Iago and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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