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French soft wheat areas to fall to a low in 2024: Argus

  • : Agriculture
  • 23/12/20

Planted areas for French soft wheat are expected to fall to their lowest this side of the millennium, after two months of heavy rain undermined crop conditions.

Argus estimates the planted acreage for France's next soft wheat crop at 4.238mn hectares (42,380km²), based on results from its annual survey of French crop planting. Argus collected feedback from more than 1,200 farmers across France during the week of 7-14 December.

The figures include an estimated 54,500ha of late planting that farmers are due to sow in the coming days, and overall represent a drop of 530,000ha compared with the current marketing year's crop.

A similar scenario occurred ahead of the 2020-21 marketing year, when heavy rainfall in the autumn of 2019 resulted in 4.27mn ha of soft wheat being planted for the 2020 harvest — a year-on-year fall of 731,000ha.

Argus' latest survey found that all regions in France are expecting a year-on-year drop in planted areas for soft wheat. The areas with the highest rainfall over the past two months are largely expecting the largest drop in planted areas. The region of Nouvelle-Aquitaine suffered the greatest impact, with 445mm of cumulative rainfall over the past two months cutting areas by an estimated 29pc.

Other regions recorded 208-355mm of rainfall from 15 October to 14 December.

In addition to Nouvelle-Aquitaine, other areas in the west and south of France — Pays de la Loire, Occitan and Provence Alpes-Cote d'Azur — are expected to see planted areas fall by 20-26pc on the year.

The northern regions of Normandy, Hauts-de-France, Ile-de-France, Centre-Val de Loire and Brittany, which also suffered heavy rainfall, can expect planted areas to be cut back by around 10pc on the year.

Only the east of the country is expected to see cuts to planted acreages of 5pc and below compared with a year earlier.

As for crop conditions, crops are faring best in northeast France, where wheat was sown in early October and was able to establish itself before rain set in.

Rapeseed

Argus estimates France's planted rapeseed areas at 1.341mn ha, slightly below 1.35mn ha last season.

The rapeseed crop has generally fared much better than winter wheat. But crop conditions are worth monitoring, given a particularly low yield in 2020, when a dry spring followed wet weather in the autumn.


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25/02/14

Australia’s GrainCorp forecasts higher exports in FY25

Australia’s GrainCorp forecasts higher exports in FY25

Sydney, 14 February (Argus) — Australian bulk handler GrainCorp is forecasting higher exports and grain receivals for its 2024-25 financial year ending on 30 September because of a larger grain crop from eastern states. GrainCorp projects exports to reach 6.5mn-7.5mn t in 2024-25, up from 5.6mn t a year earlier, the company said on 13 February. The bulk handler exported 2.7mn t of grain over 1 October 2024-13 February 2025. The total winter and summer crop output for the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria is estimated to increase by 21pc to 34.2mn t in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. This will support increased grain deliveries to GrainCorp's east coast storage and handling network. GrainCorp is expecting its total grain receivals for 2024-25 to reach 13-14mn t, up by around 30-40pc from 2023-24 . It has received 11.9mn t of this total as of 13 February. Total volumes of grain handled is forecast to rise by 11-18pc on the year in 2024-25. Total grain and oilseeds delivered to GrainCorp's storage and handling network could represent 38-41pc of the total crop produced in summer and winter in Australia's eastern states in the 2024-25 financial year. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Australia to export 25mn t of wheat in the October 2024-September 2025 marketing year. Australia exported 3.87mn t of wheat in October-December 2024, or 15pc of the USDA wheat export target, 46pc of which was exported from eastern states ports, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. By Edward Dunlop GrainCorp Grain Volumes mn t FY25 FY24 % ± Carry-In (1 Oct) 2.5 3.9 -36.0 Receivals 13-14 10.1 29 to 39 Domestic outload 5.5-6.5 5.9 -7 to 10 Exports 6.5-7.5 5.6 16 to 34 Carry-out 2.5-3.5 2.5 0 to 40 Total grain handled 31-33 28 11 to 18 GrainCorp Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US reciprocal tariffs could hit Brazilian ethanol


25/02/13
25/02/13

US reciprocal tariffs could hit Brazilian ethanol

New York, 13 February (Argus) — Brazil's growing ethanol industry is a likely target for "reciprocal" US tariffs that President Donald Trump plans to impose on products from countries that he says discriminate against US imports. In announcing the plan Thursday to raise US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on US exports, Trump did not specify which countries and products would face the new levies. But a White House fact sheet specifically mentions Brazil's treatment of US ethanol as an unfair practice worth addressing. "The US tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5pc. Yet Brazil charges the US ethanol exports a tariff of 18pc," the White House said. The US produces more ethanol than any other country, almost all derived from corn. Brazil, the world's second largest ethanol producer, largely uses sugarcane as a feedstock but has a fast-growing corn ethanol industry, too. The disparity in tariff rates has long frustrated US producers, who have become reliant on export markets since ethanol's growth in the US is limited by rising vehicle fuel efficiency, electric vehicle adoption and regulatory constraints on higher blends. The US exported more than 1.9bn USG of ethanol last year according to the Renewable Fuels Association, an all-time high. Renewable Fuels Association general counsel Ed Hubbard told Argus last week that his organization raised the issue of Brazilian tariffs with Trump transition staffers, and the office of senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said he discussed the same at a recent meeting with Jamieson Greer, Trump's nominee to be US trade representative. Greer said at a recent Senate hearing that Brazil's tariff on US ethanol was among his top priorities. Federal agencies are planning to review trade disparities and report back by 1 April, potentially giving countries like Brazil some time to consider policy changes that might avoid tariffs. Hubbard said he sees the threat of tariffs as a tool to bring Brazil back to the negotiating table on reducing its own restrictions, potentially allowing more US ethanol to enter the country and meet increasingly ambitious national targets for biofuel adoption. At the same time, Brazil could negotiate for changes to US trade barriers, such as a tariff rate quota system for sugar imports and a new 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports. If the US does ultimately increase taxes on Brazilian ethanol, trade flows might not change much in the near term. Ethanol trade between the two countries has already dropped off significantly, and the US is oversupplied with renewable fuels used to meet federal blend mandates. While essentially all foreign ethanol in the US is from Brazil, the US imported less fuel ethanol in 2024 than in at least 30 years. But new tariffs would hurt LanzaJet, a US biofuel producer with a plant that imports Brazilian ethanol and refines it into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While the company says it can and does use other feedstocks, federal and state clean fuel programs treat Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as lower-carbon. LanzaJet thus earns larger subsidies for producing fuel from sugarcane ethanol than if it used more corn ethanol, which is generally too carbon-intensive to qualify for a new US biofuel tax credit. "Tariffs impacting nascent industries like SAF will undoubtedly hurt the United States' potential to continue to lead in this space — limiting our ability to import necessary resources and export our own for the global market, given aviation is a global industry," LanzaJet vice president for corporate affairs Meg Whitty said. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Upper Mississippi River ice tops 5-year average


25/02/13
25/02/13

Upper Mississippi River ice tops 5-year average

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — Ice measurements taken Wednesday to gauge when barges can transit the upper Mississippi River exceeded the five-year average, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The annual Lake Pepin ice reports — taken by the Corps in February and March at Lake Pepin south of Minneapolis — are a bellwether for when barge transit can resume on the upper Mississippi River. This year's first report found ice at the lake was 19in thick on 12 February, 8in thicker than last year's measurement and 3in above the five-year average. The Corps' initial report last year found only 11in of ice at the lake, thin enough for waterborne traffic to break through. Subsequent reports were cancelled after the Corps said it would be too hazardous for crews and equipment to take additional measurements. Locks along the upper Mississippi River are anticipated to remain closed through 3 March, the Rock Island Corps district in Illinois said on 5 February. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ACBL sets release dates for Illinois River lock


25/02/13
25/02/13

ACBL sets release dates for Illinois River lock

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Brazil’s January inflation lowest since 1994


25/02/11
25/02/11

Brazil’s January inflation lowest since 1994

Sao Paulo, 11 February (Argus) — Brazil's monthly inflation stood at 0.16pc in January, the lowest increase for the month since 1994 when the government enacted multiple measures to contain soaring inflation, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed annually to 4.56pc from 4.83pc in December, heavily influenced by a 14.2pc tumble in power costs in January, compared with a 3.19pc drop in December. Power costs decelerated January's inflation by 0.55 percentage points — the major individual contributor to the annual drop, according to IBGE — thanks to a R1.3bn ($224mn) federal discount in power tariffs that month, CPI's manager Fernando Goncalves said. Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.25pc, decelerating from 7.69pc in December. Beef costs increased annually by almost 21.2pc following a 20.8pc gain in the month prior, while soybean oil costs decelerated to 24.55pc over the last 12 months from 29.2pc in December. Motor fuels prices rose by 11.35pc in January. Ethanol was responsible for the group's largest annual increase of 21.59pc, up from 17.58pc in the month prior. Gasoline and diesel prices also registered annual rises of 10.71pc and 2.66pc from 9.71pc and 0.66pc, respectively. Still, diesel prices remained at a 0.97pc monthly increase from December, while ethanol costs contracted by 1.82pc from 1.92pc and gasoline prices increased by 0.61pc from 0.54pc. Fuel prices are likely to keep increasing in February, as states increased the VAT-like ICMS tax on fuels and state-controlled Petrobras increased wholesale diesel prices by 6.3pc , both effective as of 1 February. Transportation costs rose by 1.3pc in January over the year, following a 0.67pc gain in December. Flight tickets were the most responsible for the increase, with a 10.42pc monthly gain from a 22.2pc contraction in December. Brazil's central bank is targeting CPI of 3pc with a margin of 1.5 percentage point above or below. The bank raised its target rate to 13.25pc in January after it failed to maintain Brazil's headline inflation under the ceiling of 4.5pc for 2024. Further increases are expected in the coming months, the bank said. The central bank has recently changed the way it tracks the inflation goal. Instead of tracking inflation on a calendar year basis, it will now monitor the goal on a 12-month basis. In 1994, Brazil enacted its Plano Real, a series of measures to stabilize the economy and detain soaring inflation, which had hit an annual 916pc by the end of that year. One of the measures was to change its currency to the real from the cruzeiro real. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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