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Fertilizer affordability weakens in 1Q24 on higher N, P

  • : Fertilizers
  • 24/03/25

Global fertilizer product affordability trended lower through most of the first quarter of 2024, as crop prices slid on higher expected global supplies, while nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers remained at high levels before coming under pressure in the second half of March.

The decline in nutrient affordability this quarter comes at a time when farmers start preparing for the spring fertilizer application season in the northern hemisphere.

The Argus fertilizer affordability index ⁠— a global assessment calculated using the ratio between the fertilizer and crop price index ⁠— fell to the lowest quarterly average since the fourth quarter of 2022.

Nutrient affordability weakened by 10 percentage points since the start of the year, to 1.03 points in March from 1.13 points in January.

An affordability index above 1 indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year, which was set in 2004, while below 1 indicates lower nutrient affordability.

High urea, phosphate prices weigh on affordability

The fertilizer index ⁠— which includes international prices for urea, DAP and potash adjusted by global usage ⁠— has reached the highest quarter average since 1Q23, owing to high urea and phosphate prices.

Urea prices surged through the second half of January, following a bearish end to 2023, initially spurred by short-covering and fresh demand from European markets in the wake of an Indian purchase tender. Levels out of Egypt jumped by around $70/t through the month to over $400/t fob for European markets.

Prices remained firm through the first half of February, supported by strong demand from Australia and Thailand, as importers warily eyed rising prices. The supply-demand balance east of Suez was also tightened by plant closures in Iran and Malaysia, as well as restrictions on Indonesian shipments prior to the elections on 14 February.

But a return of urea supply east of Suez, a slowdown in buying and weaker gas prices pressured urea levels through the second half of February and into March across most markets, apart from the US, resulting in prices to weaken on the month.

For phosphates, DAP/MAP prices remained high on tight supply through the first quarter, while China refrained from exporting product. Also strong demand in Australia and the US diverted cargoes away from other markets.

Limited MAP supply and emerging demand encouraged suppliers to raise their offers in March in the west. Meanwhile, in the east, the imminent reopening of China is adding to expected supply, and has turned DAP markets bearish.

Traders have started to short Chinese DAP with India's RCF awarding its latest buy tender at $575/t cfr — $20/t lower than the last reported cfr sale into India. But for now, prices remain far above the breakeven price of around $509/t cfr, given the reduced Indian DAP subsidy of 21,676 rupees/t for the April-September kharif season.

Crop prices under pressure

High fertilizer prices so far in the quarter coincided with a decline in grain prices for wheat, corn and soybeans owing to expectations of higher global supplies in the coming season. This has led to the crop price index — the key element of the affordability index — falling to its lowest point since the fourth quarter of 2020.

Global wheat output is forecast to reach 799mn t in the 2024-25 season (July-June), according to the International Grains Council (IGC), up by 10mn t from the IGC's 2023-24 projection, but consumption is expected to be flat on the previous season.

Global corn production is also expected to rise in 2024-25, up by 6mn t on the year to 1.233bn t in 2024-25. And global corn consumption is forecast to increase, up by 18mn t to 1.23bn t in 2024-25. Carryover corn stocks for major exporters are set to increase by 7mn t on the year to 78mn t, according to the IGC.

As for soybeans, the IGC forecasts global production to rise by 23mn t to 413mn t in 2024-25 because of larger acreages and improved yields. Global consumption is projected to rise by 21mn t on the year to 404mn t, according to the IGC. The council also expects higher carryover stocks at 75mn t in 2024-25, up by 9mn t on the year.

Global Fertilizer Affordability Index (points)

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24/11/08

Talks to restart as port of Vancouver lockout drags

Talks to restart as port of Vancouver lockout drags

Calgary, 8 November (Argus) — A labour disruption at the port of Vancouver is now into its fifth day, but the employers association and the locked-out union are to meet this weekend to try to strike a deal and get commodities moving again. Workers belonging to the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 514 on Canada's west coast have been locked out by the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) since 4 November. This came hours after the union implemented an overtime ban for its 730 ship and dock foreman members. The two sides will meet on 9 November evening with the assistance of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) in an effort to end a 19-month long dispute as they negotiate a new collective agreement to replace the one that expired in March 2023. The FMCS was already recruited for meetings in October, but that did not culminate in a deal. Natural resource-rich Canada is dependent on smooth operations at the port of Vancouver to reach international markets. The port is a major conduit for many dry and liquid bulk cargoes, including lumber, wood pellets and pulp, grains and agriculture products, caustic soda and sodium chlorate, sugar, coal, potash, sulphur, copper concentrates, zinc and lead concentrate, diesel and renewable diesel liquids and petroleum products. These account for about two-thirds of the movements through the port. Grain operations and the Westshore coal terminal are unaffected while most petroleum products also continue to move, the Port of Vancouver said on 7 November. As the parties head back to the bargaining table, the ILWU Local 514 meanwhile filed a complaint against the BCMEA on 7 November, alleging bargaining in bad faith, making threats, intimidation and coercion. "The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically-elected leadership and bargaining committee, said ILWU Local 514 president Frank Morena on 7 November. "They know their bully tactics won't work with our members but their true goal is to bully the federal government into intervention." But that is just "another meritless claim," according to the BCMEA, who wants to restore supply chain operations as quickly as possible. The union said BC ports would still be operating if the BCMEA did not overreact with a lockout. "They are responsible for goods not being shipped to and from BC ports — not the union," Morena says. The ILWU Local 514 was found to have bargained in bad faith itself already, according to a decision by the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) in October. Billions of dollars of trade are at risk with many goods and commodities at a standstill at Vancouver, which is Canada's busiest port. A 13-day strike by ILWU longshore workers in July 2023 disrupted C$10bn ($7.3bn) worth of goods and commodities, especially those reliant on container ships, before an agreement was met. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Spain eyes renewed Algerian urea trade


24/11/08
24/11/08

Spain eyes renewed Algerian urea trade

Amsterdam, 8 November (Argus) — The Algerian government appears set to resurrect its commercial agreement with Spain, having stopped trade in June 2022 following a political dispute, prompting the potential renewal of urea shipments between the countries. The return of trade between Algeria and Spain is increasingly likely, as tensions between the countries ease. Algeria announced an end to its side of a 2002 co-operation agreement with Spain in June 2022 following a dispute related to the Western Sahara. Details regarding the expected renewal of the agreement are scant so far, and Spanish importers are unclear as to how and when trade can return. The potential restart of urea shipments is only likely to emerge after the start of 2025, as suppliers will have to wait for fresh export licences with Spain listed as a permitted destination, traders said. Trading firms are typically granted annual export licences before the start of each year. Algeria was the largest supplier of urea to Spain in 2021, accounting for a third of the 1mn t imported that year. Egypt has since taken Algeria's market share, with its exports making up just over 40pc of Spanish urea imports so far this year. Algeria has 3.6mn t/yr of granular urea capacity, with AOA operating two 1.2mn t/yr plants and Sorfert the remaining 1.2mn t/yr facility. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nutrien lowers 2024 nitrogen sales guidance


24/11/07
24/11/07

Nutrien lowers 2024 nitrogen sales guidance

Houston, 7 November (Argus) — Major fertilizer producer Nutrien lowered its 2024 nitrogen sales guidance following extended turnarounds and unplanned outages in the third quarter. Nutrien reduced its expected sales of nitrogen products in 2024 by 200,000 metric tonnes (t) to 10.6mn t, the company said in its third quarter earnings report. Nutrien's Port Saskatchewan facility in Alberta suffered from a power outage during the period causing unexpected downtime, Nutrien said. The producer's Augusta, Georgia , and Geismar, Louisiana , plants experienced brief outages following hurricanes in the US Gulf coast in September. Nutrien's Trinidad nitrogen facility wrapped up a turnaround in the third quarter, Nutrien said. And the producer's Lima, Ohio, plant also underwent a turnaround from August into September, according to sources. Third quarter nitrogen sales increased by 2.8pc from a year ago to 2.45mn t despite outages at its plants. But Nutrien estimated US nitrogen inventories to be "well-below average levels" at the end of the third quarter, which the company expects to support demand in the coming months. Nitrogen markets have been supported by tightness in global supplies, with the company pointing towards supply disruptions, delays of new capacity, and rising European natural gas prices. China's restrictions on urea exports and production challenges elsewhere have firmed nitrogen markets as well, Nutrien said. On the demand side, urea consumption in China has grown 14pc annually, bringing consumption there to 60mn t as the government focuses on domestic agricultural production, Nutrien said. In the US, crop margins have declined compared to recent years on lower crop prices and higher costs, but below-normal grain stocks globally should support US agricultural markets, Nutrien said. The company said it expects strong fall nitrogen demand following significant nutrient depletion and an early harvest. By Calder Jett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian importers buy 110,000t of Saudi DAP


24/11/07
24/11/07

Indian importers buy 110,000t of Saudi DAP

London, 7 November (Argus) — Saudi Arabian fertilizer producer Ma'aden has sold a combined 110,000t of DAP to three Indian importers — including IPL — at around $635/t cfr. The product will be shipped this month. The price nets back to the low-to-mid-$620s/t fob Ras Al-Khair. Ma'aden's previous DAP sale to India was in mid-October, in which IPL bought 40,000t of the product at around $643/t cfr for October loading. By Adrien Seewald Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Port of Vancouver grinds to halt as picket lines form


24/11/05
24/11/05

Port of Vancouver grinds to halt as picket lines form

Calgary, 5 November (Argus) — Commodity movements at the port of Vancouver have halted as a labour dispute could once against risk billions of dollars of trade at Canada's busiest docks. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 514 began strike activity at 11am ET on 4 November, following through on a 72-hour notice it gave to the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) on 1 November. The BCMEA subsequently locked out workers hours later that same day, 4 November, which the union says is an overreaction because the union's job action was only limited to an overtime ban for its 730 ship and dock foreman members. Natural resource-rich Canada is dependent on smooth operations at the British Columbia port of Vancouver to reach international markets. The port is a major conduit for many dry and liquid bulk cargoes, including lumber, wood pellets and pulp, grains and agriculture products, caustic soda and sodium chlorate, sugar, coal, potash, sulphur, copper concentrates, zinc and lead concentrate, diesel and renewable diesel liquids and petroleum products. These account for about two-thirds of the movements through the port. Canadians are also reliant on the port for the import of consumer goods and Asian-manufactured automobiles. The two sides have been at odds for 19 months as they negotiate a new collective agreement to replace the one that expired in March 2023. Intervention by the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB), with a hearing in August and September, followed by meetings in October with the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS), failed to culminate in a deal. The BCMEA's latest offer is "demanding huge concessions," according to the ILWU Local 514 president Frank Morena. The BCMEA refutes that, saying it not only matches what the ILWU Longshore workers received last year, but includes more concessions. The offer remains open until withdrawn, the BCMEA said. A 13-day strike by ILWU longshore workers in July 2023 disrupted C$10bn ($7.3bn) worth of goods and commodities, especially those reliant on container ships, before an agreement was met. Grain and cruise operations are not part of the current lockout. The Westshore coal terminal is also expected to continue operations, the Port of Vancouver said on 4 November. The Trans Mountain-operated Westridge Marine Terminal, responsible for crude oil exports on Canada's west coast, should also not be directly affected because its employees are not unionized. In all, the port has 29 terminals. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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