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USGC LNG-VLSFO discount to steady itself

  • : Natural gas, Oil products
  • 24/04/23

The premium for US Gulf coast (USGC) very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) to LNG is expected to linger but not widen this spring, maintaining interest in LNG as a bunkering fuel.

US Gulf coast LNG prices slipped from a premium to a discount to VLSFO in March 2023 and have remained there since. The discount surpassed 200/t VLSFO-equivalent in January (see chart). Both LNG and VLSFO prices are expected to remain under downward pressure due to high inventories, which could keep the current LNG discount steady.

The US winter natural gas withdrawal season ended with 39pc more natural gas in storage compared with the five-year average, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Henry Hub natural gas monthly average prices dropped below $2/mmBtu in February, for the first time since September 2020, Argus data showed. The EIA expects the US will produce less natural gas on average in the second and third quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter of 2024. Despite lower production, the US will have the most natural gas in storage on record when the winter withdrawal season begins in November, says the EIA. As a result, the agency forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average less than $2/mmBtu in the second quarter before "increasing slightly" in the third quarter. EIA's forecast for all of 2024 averages about $2.20/mmBtu.

US Gulf coast VLSFO is facing downward price pressure as demand falls and increased refinery activity signals a potential supply build. Rising Gulf coast refinery activity was likely behind some of the drop in prices. Gulf coast refinery utilization last week rose to 91.4pc, the highest in 12 weeks and up by 0.9 percentage points from the prior week. US Gulf coast suppliers are also eyeing strong fuel oil price competition from eastern hemisphere ports such as Singapore and Zhoushan, China, importing cheap Russian residual fuel oil.

In general, LNG's substantial discount to VLSFO has kept interest in LNG for bunkering from ship owners with LNG-burning vessels high. The EIA discontinued publishing US bunker sales statistics with the last data available for 2020. But data from the Singapore Maritime & Port Authority, where the LNG–VLSFO discount widened to over $200/t VLSFOe in February, showed Singapore LNG for bunkering demand increase 11.4 times to 75,900t in the first quarter compared with 6,700t in the first quarter of 2023 and 110,900t for full year 2022.

US Gulf coast LNG vs VLSFO $/t VLSFOe

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25/02/12

India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA

India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA

Singapore, 12 February (Argus) — India's demand for LNG is set to rise significantly by 78pc to 64bn m³ by 2030 to meet its rising demand for natural gas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. This is up from 36.17bn m³ in 2024, according to IEA's India Gas report released at India Energy Week on 12 February. LNG imports would increase to account for 62pc of India's gas consumption, which is expected to hit 103bn m³ by 2030, it added. Imports accounted for 50pc of gas consumption in 2024, out of 72bn m³, oil ministry data show. The rise in demand would be backed by the rising city gas distribution (CGD) sector supported by the rapid expansion of its compressed natural gas (CNG) infrastructure and gas in industrial use, the report said. Targeted strategies and policy interventions may also boost gas consumption beyond the forecasted level to around 120bn m³ by 2030, according to the report. The rise in LNG imports would necessitate additional LNG import capacity beyond 2025, IEA said. The gap between contracted LNG supply and projected LNG requirements is set to widen significantly after 2028, it added. This "may leave India more exposed to the volatility of the spot LNG market unless additional LNG contracts are secured in the coming years," the report said. But production may not keep pace with demand. IEA expects India's domestic gas production, which currently meets 50pc of demand, to grow only moderately to just under 38bn m³ by 2030. India's gas output totalled 36bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show. IEA expects overall production growth to be limited by plateauing output from the KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGC's Mumbai offshore fields, which may offset the increasing onshore production from coal bed methane (CBM) and discovered small fields (DSF) and from the additional supplies from ONGC's deepwater KG-D5 project. But India's compressed biogas (CBG) production potential remains largely untapped, with annual output expected to reach 0.8bn m³ by 2030, IEA said. Sectoral demand Gas demand for power and industrial sectors is expected to each take up 15pc of demand by 2030, equivalent to around 15bn m³ respectively, based on the normalised trajectory of consumption hitting 103bn m³ by 2030, IEA said in its report. Gas consumption from refineries is also expected to increase by more than 4bn m³ by 2030 as more refineries are connected to the grid, it added. Gas usage by refineries totalled 5bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show. But growth prospects in the petrochemical and fertilizer sectors remain limited, as there are no new gas-based capacity additions planned, it added. The think tank expects some new demand centres to emerge as a result of higher utilisation of India's stranded gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, more rapid expansion of India's CGD infrastructure, combined with the replacement of LPG with natural gas in the commercial sector. Challenging targets But IEA expects India's 15pc target of natural gas use in the primary energy mix will be challenging to meet, owing to India's gas development pathway prioritising affordability and energy security. "Inter-fuel competition is particularly strong in India, with natural gas vying against coal, oil and renewables in several gas-consuming sectors," according to the IEA report. Even small changes in global gas prices can significantly impact domestic consumption patterns, the report added. Competitive pricing is needed to enable natural gas adoption given the price sensitivity. By Rituparna Ghosh and Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

California aims to expand alternative bunkers


25/02/11
25/02/11

California aims to expand alternative bunkers

New York, 11 February (Argus) — California lawmakers will consider expanding alternative marine fuels use by ocean-going vessels on the state's coast. State senate bill 298, introduced by state senator Anna Caballero (D), would require the California State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission (Energy Commission), the California Transportation Agency and the state board to develop a plan by 31 December 2030 for the use and deployment of alternative fuels at California's public seaports. The plan should identify significant alternative fuel infrastructure and equipment trends, needs, and issues and describe how the state will facilitate permitting and construction of infrastructure to support alternative fuels. The plan should also identify locations for alternative fuel infrastructure, provide a reasonable timeline for its installment and estimate the costs, including public or private financing opportunities. The bill also calls for the Energy Commission to convene a working group consisting of representatives of seaports, marine terminal operators, ocean carriers, waterfront labor, cargo owners, environmental and community advocacy groups, the Transportation Agency, the state board, the Public Utilities Commission, and air quality management and air pollution control districts. The working group will advise the commission. The US territorial waters, including California's, are designated as emission control areas (ECAs). In the ECAs, the sulphur content of marine fuel burned by ocean-going vessels is capped at 0.1pc. Thus ocean-going vessels within 24 nautical miles of California burn 0.1pc sulphur maximum marine gasoil (MGO). Ocean-going vessels could achieve the equivalent of 0.1pc sulphur marine fuel emissions by installing marine exhaust scrubbers. But California has banned their use. California is the only US state that has banned the outright use of marine scrubbers. California also requires that ocean-going vessels while at berth in California ports must either use shore power or use alternative technology such as batteries. The regulation came into force for container ships, reefers and cruise ships in 2023. It came into force this January for tankers visiting Los Angeles and Long beach and for roll on roll off vessels. Starting on 1 January 2027, it will apply to all tankers at berth in all California's ports. US harbor craft vessels (such as barges, commercial fishing vessels, excursion vessels, dredgers, pilot vessels, tugboats and workboats) in California's waters are required to burn renewable diesel (R99 or R100). By comparison, elsewhere in the US, harbor craft vessels are required to burn ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD). In January, Los Angeles ULSD averaged at $773/t and R99 at $962/t. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil’s January inflation lowest since 1994


25/02/11
25/02/11

Brazil’s January inflation lowest since 1994

Sao Paulo, 11 February (Argus) — Brazil's monthly inflation stood at 0.16pc in January, the lowest increase for the month since 1994 when the government enacted multiple measures to contain soaring inflation, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed annually to 4.56pc from 4.83pc in December, heavily influenced by a 14.2pc tumble in power costs in January, compared with a 3.19pc drop in December. Power costs decelerated January's inflation by 0.55 percentage points — the major individual contributor to the annual drop, according to IBGE — thanks to a R1.3bn ($224mn) federal discount in power tariffs that month, CPI's manager Fernando Goncalves said. Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.25pc, decelerating from 7.69pc in December. Beef costs increased annually by almost 21.2pc following a 20.8pc gain in the month prior, while soybean oil costs decelerated to 24.55pc over the last 12 months from 29.2pc in December. Motor fuels prices rose by 11.35pc in January. Ethanol was responsible for the group's largest annual increase of 21.59pc, up from 17.58pc in the month prior. Gasoline and diesel prices also registered annual rises of 10.71pc and 2.66pc from 9.71pc and 0.66pc, respectively. Still, diesel prices remained at a 0.97pc monthly increase from December, while ethanol costs contracted by 1.82pc from 1.92pc and gasoline prices increased by 0.61pc from 0.54pc. Fuel prices are likely to keep increasing in February, as states increased the VAT-like ICMS tax on fuels and state-controlled Petrobras increased wholesale diesel prices by 6.3pc , both effective as of 1 February. Transportation costs rose by 1.3pc in January over the year, following a 0.67pc gain in December. Flight tickets were the most responsible for the increase, with a 10.42pc monthly gain from a 22.2pc contraction in December. Brazil's central bank is targeting CPI of 3pc with a margin of 1.5 percentage point above or below. The bank raised its target rate to 13.25pc in January after it failed to maintain Brazil's headline inflation under the ceiling of 4.5pc for 2024. Further increases are expected in the coming months, the bank said. The central bank has recently changed the way it tracks the inflation goal. Instead of tracking inflation on a calendar year basis, it will now monitor the goal on a 12-month basis. In 1994, Brazil enacted its Plano Real, a series of measures to stabilize the economy and detain soaring inflation, which had hit an annual 916pc by the end of that year. One of the measures was to change its currency to the real from the cruzeiro real. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage


25/02/11
25/02/11

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage

London, 11 February (Argus) — Bitumen production at TotalEnergies' 109,300 b/d Feyzin refinery near Lyon, central France, is halted from 10-20 February as part of a wider shutdown affecting the refinery's crude distillation unit (CDU) and reformer. Workers at the plant said last week there had been unexpectedly extended CDU works caused by a blockage by unspecified debris . TotalEnergies said at the time it would not comment on operations. Officials at the company confirmed today the CDU and reformer were among units shut at Feyzin, but said the halt was planned. They said the CDU had suffered no unexpected blockage or damage. Workers reiterated today that debris had been detected in the CDU and that this could result in a shutdown lasting weeks. Sources familiar with the refinery's operations said today that the bitumen halt would cause no supply disruptions in terms of the usual truck movements, with sufficient stocks held at the plant to meet current low-level requirements during the winter slow activity period in the road paving and other construction sectors. By Fenella Rhodes and Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit


25/02/11
25/02/11

BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit

London, 11 February (Argus) — BP today promised to "fundamentally reset" its strategy later this month after reporting a drop in underlying profit last year. The company alluded to what the reset might entail, noting that last year it had "laid the foundations for growth" by committing capital to new oil and gas projects and "refocusing" its investments in low-carbon assets. Details of the strategy shift will be outlined at a capital markets day for investors on 26 February. Key actions in 2024 included taking a final investment decision on the 80,000 b/d Kaskida oil field in the US Gulf of Mexico and raising its exposure to biofuels in Brazil . The company also took steps via a joint venture with Japanese utility Jera that will see it commit less capital to its wind energy investments. BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit — excluding inventory effects and one-off items — of $1.2bn for the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $3bn a year earlier. For the full year, underlying replacement cost profit fell by 36pc compared with 2023 to $8.9bn, while cash flow from operations dropped to $27.3bn from $32bn. The company benefited from higher oil and gas production last year — up by 2pc on 2023 at 2.36mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). But lower prices, a drop in refining margins and lower contributions from both oil and gas trading weighed on profitability. BP said it expects upstream production to be lower this year and refining margins "broadly flat". It expects a similar level of refinery maintenance in 2025, with the work "heavily weighted towards the first half" and the second quarter in particular. For now, BP is sticking with its share repurchasing programme, announcing a further $1.75bn of share buybacks for the fourth quarter. It has maintained its quarterly dividend at 8¢/share. The company's capital expenditure remained steady at $16.2bn last year. It will provide guidance on this year's investment budget at the strategy day later this month. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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