Atlantic coking coal: Offers strengthen
Cautious optimism towards European steel demand recovering further in the fourth quarter has encouraged some traders to start pushing up their offers for US coking coal this week.
But at least one mill was heard to have still secured September loading high-volatile B coal below $90/t fob Hampton Roads this week, pointing to the continued presence of a supplier or miner still holding considerable stocks.
The Argus daily fob Hampton Roads assessment for low-volatile coking coal held steady at $106/t today, while the high-volatile A price rose by $1/t to $109/t fob Hampton Roads, buoyed by signs of further supply tightness to come. The high-volatile B price edged up by $2.50/t to $97/t, reflecting the continued gap in price ideas between buyers that have secured September loadings at $88-92/t this week and fourth-quarter offers from traders reaching towards $100/t.
While steel prices in Europe are rising, the pressure of raw materials costs remains on mills as iron ore prices rise. "The mills are trying to ramp up coil prices but their margins are still not improving enough. Everything has been eaten up by iron ore," said one mill. The Argus ICX 62pc index rose by $2.60/dry metric tonne (dmt) today to $128.70/dmt cfr Qingdao, up from $99.95/dmt at the start of June, while the 65pc index was up today by $2.05/dmt to $140.90/dmt.
As a result of capacity cuts since the second quarter this year, overall US coking coal supply availability is expected to face limitations going into the fourth quarter, particularly if mills are seeking to increase steel output. At least one major US high-volatile B producer has not been participating in the spot market since the start of this quarter. Another miner voiced scepticism over there being many discounts still on offer, with the 2021 domestic settlements for high-volatile B at around $121-125/t fob US east coast. "I cannot fathom why anyone would be discounting right now," the miner said.
The return of steel demand has no doubt encouraged the restart of blast furnaces in Europe and north Africa. But this has unexpectedly for some led to a met coke shortage emerging this week for certain mills. Strong demand from Chinese buyers willing to pay higher prices has also meant that producers diverted cargoes from traditional destinations earlier this year to China. "Coke is difficult to get in the market at the moment because Colombian producers have sold out and Polish producers have sold a lot of cargoes to China," said a trader. But one European mill plans to offer some met coke to a trading company to be sold to Asia.
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EU HRC market gears up for mill consolidation
EU HRC market gears up for mill consolidation
London, 19 September (Argus) — The European hot-rolled coil (HRC) market is gearing up for potential consolidation over the coming year, as mills grapple with tough market conditions. The share prices of key European producers have rallied in recent days, despite continued weakness in HRC prices. Global steelmaker ArcelorMittal's shares traded above €22/share ($24/share) on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange at 12:30 GMT today, up from €19.70/share on 10 September. This strength is partly attributable to the expected release of economic stimulus measures in China, and the US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, sources suggest. But market strength could also be because of growing talk that a new wave of consolidation is on its way, fuelled by decarbonisation efforts and the strained positions' of some mills. There has long been talk that steel coil producer Tata Steel Netherlands could be sold, after the Dutch state agreed to contribute to its decarbonisation spend. Recent difficulties at Germany's ThyssenKrupp have also sparked suggestions it could be an acquisition target. Czech Republic energy company EP Corporate Group (EPCG) recently completed its purchase of a 20pc stake in ThyssenKrupp's Steel Europe division, and could increase this to 50pc in the near future. EPCG owner Daniel Kretinsky may be seeking a strategic partner to help run the business, sparking talks that other mills could bid for a stake in the company. ThyssenKrupp shares were trading at €3.20/share on Deutsche Borse Xetra at 12:30 GMT today, up from €2.78/share on 10 September. Concerns over strong positions in niche markets, particularly tin plate, saw Tata Steel and Thyssekrupp call off their proposed joint venture in May 2019. But the market is in a different position now. Some mills have reduced capacity but new entrants are trying to join the market as green producers. And the global market is oversupplied, putting European producers in a difficult financial predicament, especially given their capital-intensive efforts to decarbonise. In the case of ThyssenKrupp, expectations that the mill will reduce its production footprint could partially alleviate potential competition concerns in the event of a takeover. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more: Update
US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more: Update
Adds chairman Powell comments, economic projections. Houston, 18 September (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 50 basis points today, the first rate cut since 2020, with policymakers signaling they expect to make another half-point worth of cuts by the end of 2024. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.75-5pc from the prior range of 5.25-5.5pc, which was a 23-year high. The Fed had kept the target rate unchanged since July 2023 after hiking it for more than a year in the most intense rate-tightening campaign in four decades to quash inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022. "The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2pc, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." In their latest economic projections, the Fed board and policymakers expect the target rate range will end 2024 near a midpoint of 4.4pc compared with an end of year midpoint of 5.1pc projected in June, which implies further cuts amounting to 50 basis points by the end of 2024. Policymakers also penciled in another 100 basis points of cuts over the course of 2025. "We're recalibrating policy down over time to a more neutral level and we're moving at the pace that we think is appropriate given developments in the economy," Fed chair Jerome Powell told a press conference after the meeting. "The economy can develop in a way that will cause us to go faster or slower. The US economy is in a good place and our decision today is designed to keep it there." The Fed's economic projections see core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation — the Fed's favorite measure of inflation — ending 2024 at a median rate of 2.6pc, down from a prior forecast of 2.8pc. Policymakers see core PCE inflation falling to a median of 2.2pc by the end of next year. The outlook for the unemployment rate for the end of 2024 climbed to 4.4pc from 4pc penciled in at the June meeting. Policymakers expect gross domestic product (GDP) growth to end 2024 at an annual 2pc, slightly down from a prior 2.1pc projection. The latest policy meeting comes as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to an annual 2.5pc in August , down from 2.9pc in July, the Labor Department reported on 11 September. Inflation had ticked up to 3.5pc in March from 3.1pc in January, prompting the Fed to turn more cautious about beginning its rate cuts. US job growth has recently slowed sharply, falling to an average 116,000 in the three months through August from 211,000 for the prior three months. The jobless rate rose to 4.3pc in July, the highest in three years, before edging down to 4.2pc in August. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more to come
US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more to come
Houston, 18 September (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 50 basis points today, the first rate cut since 2020, with officials signaling they expect to make another half point worth of cuts by the end of 2024. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.75-5pc from the prior range of 5.25-5.5pc, which was a two-decade high. The Fed had kept the target rate unchanged since July 2023 after hiking it for more than a year in the most aggressive increase campaign in four decades to quash inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022. "The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2pc and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." The Fed board and policymakers, in their latest economic projections, expect the target rate range will end 2024 near a midpoint of 4.4pc compared with an end of year midpoint of 5.1pc projected in June, which implies further cuts amounting to 50 basis points by the end of 2024. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan's Tokyo Steel cuts sales prices on weak demand
Japan's Tokyo Steel cuts sales prices on weak demand
Shanghai, 18 September (Argus) — Japan's steel manufacturing firm Tokyo Steel said it will cut domestic steel product prices for October, marking the first full-scale price cut in over four years. The decision was driven by sluggish domestic demand and increased competition from cheaper imported steel products. Tokyo Steel will reduce prices across all product lines starting October, with steel coils and plates dropping by ¥15,000/t, shaped beams by ¥12,000/t, and tubes and deformed bars by ¥10,000/t. The company had maintained stable domestic steel prices for an extended period on the back of the steadier domestic demand and market conditions compared to the more volatile overseas market. The last price cut for deformed bars was in July 2023. Steel sales in Japan were weak during the third quarter, impacted by rising procurement costs for materials, a shortage of construction capacity, and an influx of cheaper steel products from China in the seaborne market, market participants said. A decline in profitability pushed Japanese mills to cut production costs. From 11 July to 14 September, domestic scrap prices at Tokyo Steel's Utsunomiya plant dropped by ¥12,500/t, or 23.8pc. Market sentiment in Japan remains bearish due to economic uncertainty and the strengthening of the Japanese yen. The upcoming adjustments in US monetary policy could add further volatility to exchange rates. "We may see more corrections in the Japanese domestic market," a trade source said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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