Biofuels and feedstocks
Overview
Demand for biofuels is increasing significantly, driven by the need to decarbonise road transport as part of the energy transition. Global biofuels output is expected to rise by more than 3mn b/d in the next five years, and such rapid growth means that new challenges and opportunities are constantly emerging. Keeping on top of the ever-changing biofuels landscape requires accurate pricing, insightful analysis and access to the latest data.
The Argus biofuels solution provides in-depth pricing and market analysis across the entire global renewable fuel supply chain, from original feedstock to finished fuel, with prices and key insights into regional biodiesel, ethanol and feedstock markets.
Latest biofuels news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global biofuels industry.
European ethanol prices up on indirect war effects
European ethanol prices up on indirect war effects
London, 16 March (Argus) — European ethanol prices have risen by more than 10pc since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, with a number of indirect effects pushing values to the highest in four months. Last week, prices for 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol rose to €754/m³, up by €72/m³ from 27 February, the day before the US and Israel attacked Iran, and the highest since 11 November. While the conflict has not directly affected ethanol supply, there has been consequential volatility and disruption through higher freight rates, limited arbitrage opportunities and increased production costs. The war looks likely to tighten supply in what was, already, a structurally short European ethanol market. Arbitrage economics for suppliers in North and South America to export to Europe have closed because of higher specialised freight rates and domestic prices. The EU is heavily reliant on ethanol flows from the Americas, with the bloc's largest suppliers of undenatured ethanol in the fourth quarter 2025 being Peru with 43,101t, Brazil with 26,747t, Canada with 21,819t, and the US with 18,822t. The Americas represented 71pc, or 133,275t, of all EU imports that quarter. Specialised freight has become more expensive since the war began beginning and it could be difficult to book vessels. The war has almost entirely halted ships from passing through the strait of Hormuz, which has mostly stopped shipments of diesel from the Mideast Gulf to Europe and prompted European buyers to turn to the US Gulf Coast for cargoes. Revenues from these have been high enough to keep most IMO2/3 'swing tonnage' tankers away from ethanol, biofuels, and petrochemicals cargoes, supporting specialised tanker rates. Tanker availability in the Americas was already very tight, and strong revenues in the regional products freight market and high numbers of Contracts of Affreightment have left even fewer available specialised tankers for biofuels. Charterers have faced high competition in the spot market which has sent specialised tanker rates surging. The higher price of bunker fuel has also pushed up shipowners' costs to move cargoes and further supported freight rates. Ethanol prices in the US and Brazil have also risen, which has disincentivised exports. US ethanol prices rose between 4-13 March in line with gains in oil products and agricultural futures. In-tank transfers at Kinder-Morgan's Argo terminal and for Chicago Rule 11 railcars rallied by more than 6pc, to €436.77/m³ (189.2¢/USG) and €427.19/m³ (185¢/USG) respectively, per Argus assessments. Barge values at New York Harbor rose by 5.5pc to €449.13/m³ (194.50¢/USG). Brazilian ethanol prices were already supported pre-war by reduced domestic supply, a result of the major producing centre-south region being in the December-March sugarcane off season, coinciding with historically low stocks. Brazil's domestic demand for ethanol could grow if state-controlled Petrobras adjusts domestic fuel prices higher then consumers will look to fill up their flex-fuel vehicles with more ethanol. Argus ' price for hydrous ethanol traded on an ex-mill basis in the state of Sao Paulo reached 3,805 reals/m³ (€632.80/m³or 280.1¢/USG) on 23 January, the highest since 24 January 2022. The price has since reversed some of the gains but it is still trading at levels last seen four years ago. EU ethanol production margins fell at the start of the conflict. Between 2-4 March, margins for corn fell by €94.49/m³ to €187.22/m³ and for wheat they fell by €95.49/m³ to €181.20/m³, according to Argus calculations that exclude variable costs of yeasts, enzymes, chemicals and denaturants. In 2025, the average production margin was €197.58/m³ for corn and €198.50/m³ for wheat. Market participants attributed the lower margins to higher prices for natural gas used in the production process. With the war closing off some global LNG supply, the natural gas has gone from 20pc of production costs to 30pc, according to Argus calculations. Prices for grains have also risen, with the EU's corn production down in recent seasons, and imports have become more expensive because of higher shipping costs. By Toby Shay, Leonard Fisher-Matthews, Maria Lígia Barros, Thompson Corpus, Aleksandra Godlewska and Anna Harouni Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Rains, war may sustain Brazil ethanol price rise
Rains, war may sustain Brazil ethanol price rise
Sao Paulo, 16 March (Argus) — Persistent rainfall in Brazil's center-south could support ethanol prices at higher levels for longer, as it disrupts mills' plans to bring forward the 2026-27 sugarcane crushing season, while low stocks and the war in the Middle East add upward pressure. Some sugarcane plants in Sao Paulo, Goias, and Mato Grosso do Sul states planned to restart crushing operations in March instead of early April to take advantage of higher ethanol prices during the sugarcane off-season. Argus ' price for hydrous ethanol traded on an ex-mill basis in the state of Sao Paulo reached R3,805 /m³ (273¢/USG) normalized to Ribeirao Preto on 23 January, the highest since 24 January 2022. Although the price has since receded from its late-January peak, it remains at historically high levels. Some units had initially scheduled to resume crushing operations on 10-15 March, sources told Argus . Market participants had penciled in the processing of 8mn-10mn metric tonnes (t) of sugarcane this month, up from 6.4mn t crushed a year ago. But rainfall in the region is hampering activities. The weather forecast for the next 15 days points to accumulated rainfall of up to 90mm in Sao Paulo, up to 155mm in Mato Grosso do Sul, and up to 230mm in Goias, according to the US national oceanic and atmospheric administration NOAA. Equipment repairs carried out by mills during the months of off-season are also working against an early start of crushing operations. In addition, starting processing earlier means giving up extra days of sugarcane maturation that could otherwise enhance its quality. As a result, many mills maintained their scheduled start date of 1-15 April, even with the prospect of attractive prices in March. If rains through April delay crushing, ethanol stocks are likely to come under even more pressure starting in the second half of the month, which would further support a rise in biofuel prices. Brazil's hydrous ethanol stocks stood at 2.5bn liters on 15 February, 22pc less than in the same period in 2025, according to the latest data from agriculture and livestock ministry Mapa. Anhydrous stocks fell by 24pc in the same period to 2bn liters. Hydrous stocks are sufficient to cover 45 days of domestic consumption, while anhydrous ethanol stocks would cover 51 days. The outlook is based on the requirement that 30pc anhydrous be blended with gasoline at the retail phase and the demand forecast for March-April. War impacts A continuation of the Middle East war, which has caused crude and fuel prices to skyrocket on international markets, may also bolster ethanol prices as increases in gasoline prices may shift consumption to ethanol. Private refineries in Brazil have increased wholesale diesel and gasoline prices. The market is now cautiously monitoring signals from refineries operated by state-controlled Petrobras. The company has increased diesel prices , raising concerns about fueling agricultural machinery in sugarcane fields, as it could increase ethanol production costs. The market has begun to speculate about an anticipatory increase in the anhydrous ethanol blending mandate to 32pc from the current 30pc, as a measure to control the inflationary impact of the war. But there is no consensus among industry participants on the feasibility of advancing the proposal. By Maria Lígia Barros Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
No clear path to pre-war Hormuz return: D’Amico
No clear path to pre-war Hormuz return: D’Amico
New York, 13 March (Argus) — Tanker operator D'Amico sees significant headwinds facing global shipping even if the strait of Hormuz can effectively reopen to commercial traffic given infrastructure damage in the Mideast Gulf and mines possibly lingering in the strait. "There are almost 19mn b/d between crude and refined products which used to transit through Hormuz, so around 18pc of total oil supply and 25pc of seaborne volume," D'Amico chief executive Carlos Balestra di Mottola said. "I expect when the war ends, unfortunately, we will not be able to see all the flows we were seeing from this region," di Mottola said. Reopening the strait of Hormuz would remove the major chokepoint that has starved global markets of typical Mideast Gulf flows of refined oil products and crude oil. But the reality on the ground has shifted in the two weeks since the US and Israel began striking Iranian targets. Expecting a similar level of output from the Mideast Gulf in the near term even with the removal of this chokepoint may be too presumptuous, according to di Mottola. "I believe, unfortunately, [flows of crude oil and refined products] might not be able to come back to full speed immediately," di Mottola said. "It will crucially depend on how severely damaged all this oil infrastructure is. We are reading headlines every day of refineries being attacked, export terminals being attacked, so we really will only be able to assess and understand the extent of this damage when things calm down." Iranian mines suspected to be resting on the seabed of the strait remain the biggest wildcard for shippers and insurers alike. A full reopening of the strait would require assurances of total mine removal from the area, which would likely require significant time to complete. "Before sending our vessels, we want to make sure that there aren't any mines which could be hitting our vessels," di Mottola confirmed. He noted that none of the company's 21 medium range tankers and six long range 1 tankers were stuck within the Mideast Gulf, but that the company did cancel one contract with a charterer because it was not safe to enter the region. Di Mottola also pointed to ongoing Red Sea loadings as providing some relief to the de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz in the meantime, but only at a fraction of typical flows. "There is the potential to reroute, through some pipelines [to the Red Sea], part of this production, around 3.54mn b/d, but that leaves still a deficit of around 15mn b/d and lost oil output which cannot be easily replaced," di Mottola said. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil biodiesel blend hike faces delay
Brazil biodiesel blend hike faces delay
Sao Paulo, 13 March (Argus) — Brazil's mines and energy ministry has ruled out raising the biodiesel blend before feasibility tests are completed, amid increased lobbying for a higher mandate as oil prices rise on the US-Iran war. Market participants had expected Brazil's national energy policy council (CNPE) meeting — originally scheduled for yesterday and postponed to 19 March — to include a biodiesel blend increase on the agenda. But the mines and energy ministry told Argus that tests on blends ranging from 16pc to 25pc remain in the final phase of methodological consolidation and experimental activities have not yet started. Without tests proving the new blend levels are technically feasible, the law does not allow the mandatory blend increase schedule to move forward, the ministry said. Brazil's fuels of the future law projected an increase in the blending mandate to 16pc from the current 15pc this month. The ministry expects to start experimental trials in the first half of 2026. The original schedule planned for the tests to be completed in June, with final validation in August. Brazilian hydrocarbons regulator ANP today approved a draft ordinance establishing guidelines for its participation in one of the projects that will test biofuels blends. Brazil's parliamentary front for biodiesel FPBio has intensified lobbying to increase the biodiesel blend to 17pc from 15pc, calling it a "strategic measure for energy sovereignty, economic stability and the protection of Brazilian consumers". Brazil can currently supply up to a 21.6pc biodiesel blend into diesel, industry associations Abiove and Aprobio said in a joint statement supporting the increase. Prices for imported 10ppm (S10) diesel at Brazilian ports surpassed biodiesel contract prices on 6 March for the first time since October 2023, as global oil derivative prices rose on the US-Iran war. The government announced on 12 March measures to eliminate the federal VAT-like PIS/Cofins tax levy on diesel imports and sales to mitigate the impact of the Iran war on oil prices. Market participants also expect the CNPE meeting to address the authorization of biodiesel imports, but there is no official confirmation on the subject. Ethanol market participants have also speculated a rise in the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 32pc from 30pc, but there are no official timelines set in the Fuels of the Future law for this change. The mines and energy ministry said it continuously monitors the international energy scenario and its potential effects on the domestic fuel market. By Lucas Lignon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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