Biofuels and feedstocks
Overview
Demand for biofuels is increasing significantly, driven by the need to decarbonise road transport as part of the energy transition. Global biofuels output is expected to rise by more than 3mn b/d in the next five years, and such rapid growth means that new challenges and opportunities are constantly emerging. Keeping on top of the ever-changing biofuels landscape requires accurate pricing, insightful analysis and access to the latest data.
The Argus biofuels solution provides in-depth pricing and market analysis across the entire global renewable fuel supply chain, from original feedstock to finished fuel, with prices and key insights into regional biodiesel, ethanol and feedstock markets.
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Hormuz traffic low despite US claims of control
Hormuz traffic low despite US claims of control
New York, 12 August (Argus) — Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, weighing on global oil demand despite US president Donald Trump's recent claims of the US' total control over the narrow waterway. Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz stood at 16 vessels total on 11 August, split between 11 inbound and five outbound transits, data from maritime security firm Windward show. There were six total transits — including three transits into the Mideast Gulf and three transits out — that took place on the southern US-supported transit lane, including a Sinokor-controlled very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying 2mn bl of Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam, Windward data show. "The USA has total control over the strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!" Trump posted on social media on 12 August. "Our naval blockade is being called, by everyone, 'A WALL OF STEEL' and there is nothing Iran can do about it." Trump's claim of the US' total control over the strait of Hormuz came the same day that the International Energy Agency (IEA) described an agreement enabling the reopening of the strait of Hormuz as "still elusive" in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). It also lowered its global oil demand forecast "as the continued closure of the strait of Hormuz disrupts international supply chains and curtails product availability". The latest remarks by Trump come as the US and Iran appear to be moving further away from the potential for diplomatic resolution to reopen the strait of Hormuz, based on recent escalations in rhetoric from both countries. Iran continues to heighten its demands for the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, linking it to the end of the US' blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a region-wide ceasefire that includes Lebanon and Gaza. Meanwhile, Trump in an 11 August post on social media floated the idea that Iran "should be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza!" Wright or wrong? US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 11 August that thanks to the US and its Gulf allies the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz is up to almost 9mn b/d, a figure much higher than available information. Data from vessel tracking firm Vortexa places the weekly average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz between 31 July and 7 August at 3.34mn b/d, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait as the leading exporters. It is unclear whether the vessels transited on the US-supported southern lane or the northern Iranian-controlled transit lane. Iran had previously exempted its ally Iraq from paying tolls to transit the strait in June. The IEA confirmed in its latest OMR that "following significant gains in May and June, crude and condensate flow through Hormuz (…) collapsed in July." Wright doubled down on his claims on 12 August stating that "many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway". The US Central Command (Centcom) has repeatedly claimed that US-assisted transits through the strait of Hormuz have been averaging around 20 vessels a day, even on days where vessel tracking and satellite information detected only 10 vessels making it through the waterway. Centcom has declined to respond to multiple requests for additional details on the transits from Argus . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EIA raises renewable diesel output view
EIA raises renewable diesel output view
Houston, 11 August (Argus) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today raised its projections for renewable diesel production and net exports while trimming domestic demand expectations. EIA raised its forecast for renewable diesel production in 2026 to 241,000 b/d, the agency said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook , up by 5,000 b/d from July's forecast. The production outlook for next year was unchanged at 294,000 b/d. The outlook for domestic renewable diesel demand this year was trimmed by 9,000 b/d to 208,000 b/d, while the 2027 forecast was reduced by 4,000 b/d to 291,000 b/d. EIA increased its expectation for net renewable diesel exports this year to 30,000 b/d, up by 13,000 b/d from July's projection and equal to the level recorded in 2025. Next year, renewable diesel imports and exports are expected to be balanced, compared with 5,000 b/d in net imports projected last month. US biodiesel domestic demand is expected to average 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 115,000 b/d in 2027. The 2026 forecast was cut by 1,000 b/d from EIA's July outlook, while the 2027 outlook was unchanged. Biodiesel output is expected to reach 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 109,000 b/d in 2027, both unchanged from the previous report. Biodiesel imports and exports in 2026 are also expected to be balanced, a decrease of 1,000 b/d in net imports from last month's projection. The agency expects 6,000 b/d of net biodiesel imports in 2027, unchanged from the previous report. EIA's forecast for US production and consumption of "other biofuels" — including sustainable aviation fuel — were unchanged from last month's outlook at 42,000 b/d this year and 53,000 b/d next year. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its forecast for US soybean oil use for biofuels in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, holding at 8.07mn metric tonnes for the 2026–27 marketing year. US soybean crush margins have remained volatile since the start of July, peaking at $3.268/bushel (bu) on 22 July before soybean oil futures prices dove lower. Crush margins were last calculated at $2.745/bu on 10 August. Current-year D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits were last assessed at 221.5¢/lb on 10 August, down substantially from an all-time high of 255.875¢/RIN reached on 7 July, lowering production margins for US biofuel producers. The US requires refiners to blend various types of biofuels each year or cover their obligations by purchasing RIN credits from others that do. By Thompson Corpus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s inflation slows to 4.44pc in July
Brazil’s inflation slows to 4.44pc in July
Sao Paulo, 11 August (Argus) — Brazil's inflation slowed to an annual 4.44pc in July, with lower housing costs helping to offset higher electricity bills. The consumer price index IPCA decelerated from 4.64pc in June and 4.72pc in May, national statistics agency IBGE said on Tuesday. The latest decline puts inflation within the central bank's target range of 1.50-4.50pc. Food and beverage costs, which weigh heavily on the index, contributed the most to the monthly deceleration in the IPCA, decelerating to an annual 3.4pc in July from 3.82pc in June. Lower prices for coffee, fruits and vegetables largely drove the declines, IBGE said. Housing costs was the largest monthly contributors to the gain in the index in July, with its inflation accelerating to an annual 5.93pc from 5.85pc a month earlier, mostly thanks to electricity bills and tax readjustments for power supply in some southern states. Transport costs slowed to an annual 3.64pc in July from 3.95pc in June. Lower prices for ethanol, diesel, gasoline and compressed natural gas weighed on motor fuel costs, despite an increase in airfares The annual gain for July was down from 5.23pc in July 2025 . The central bank expects inflation to end 2026 at 5.03pc, above its 1.5-4.5pc expected range. It also expects inflation at 4.22pc for 2027 and 3.8pc for 2028. Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 14pc in its latest meeting , held last month, a fourth such quarter point cut since March after holding it at 15pc since mid-2025 to stem inflation. By Mariana Funchal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Flexibility key for Canadian SAF+ IG’s e-SAF plans
Q&A: Flexibility key for Canadian SAF+ IG’s e-SAF plans
Paris, 11 August (Argus) — Canadian developer SAF+ International Group (SAF+ IG) is planning to produce synthetic aviation fuel (e-SAF) at a first commercial-scale plant, at Port-la-Nouvelle in southern France, following completion of a demonstration project in Montreal. The company is open to sourcing renewable hydrogen and carbon from non-conventional sources to ensure a cost-competitive final product. Argus spoke to chief executive Pierre Gonthier about the company's strategy, investment in the French plant, and the market outlook. Edited highlights below: What is SAF+ IG's background and why are you focusing on e-SAF production? SAF+ International Group was founded in Canada in 2019. We received seed funding through a programme run by Natural Resources Canada, which aimed to demonstrate both the technical and commercial viability of SAF production. We were one of five selected finalists, each pursuing different SAF pathways — some companies would focus on production from waste, others from forestry residues. From the outset, we decided to focus exclusively on e-SAF. We had access to carbon capture facilities in Quebec and identified production of synthetic kerosene as one of the most promising uses of captured CO2. In 2021, we built and operated a pilot plant in Montreal, successfully producing synthetic kerosene. Our view is that e-SAF represents the long-term future of aviation decarbonisation. While bio-based SAF pathways are important, there will not be enough sustainable biomass feedstock available to decarbonise aviation at scale. With the first commercial plant, is Europe your main target market? Our original plan was to build our first commercial plant in Quebec because the province had abundant hydroelectricity and significant power surpluses. However, provincial policy shifted toward using those surpluses to attract investment in other industries rather than prioritising industrial decarbonisation. As a result, we began looking more closely at Europe in 2022, as the ReFuelEU Aviation framework was taking shape. We established a French subsidiary in 2023 and have since focused on identifying a suitable site for our first commercial-scale project. Earlier this year, we selected a site in Port-la-Nouvelle and signed a land reservation agreement. We already had technology agreements in place with Topsoe and Sasol, and are now preparing to move into front-end engineering design (Feed) studies. SAF+ IG is collaborating with direct ocean capture firm Captura and subsurface hydrogen company Vema . What drives you to pursue these partnerships? We deliberately chose to focus on the fuel-conversion process rather than hydrogen production, renewable power generation, or carbon capture itself. That means we are technology-agnostic when sourcing CO2 and hydrogen. We will consider any solution capable of delivering the required volumes at the right price and in compliance with regulatory requirements. Many competing developers originate from the renewable energy or hydrogen sectors, which can limit flexibility because they are tied to specific technologies or assets. Our approach allows us to select the most competitive combination of feedstock suppliers and technologies for each project. The Port-la-Nouvelle site illustrates this strategy well. It is a major logistics hub with access to maritime transport, pipelines and rail infrastructure, providing multiple options for future hydrogen and CO2 supply chains. Can you provide more details on the Port-la-Nouvelle plans? We are working with an investment firm on a series A fundraising round to finance the Feed studies. We expect investor syndication to begin shortly, and we have already seen strong interest from potential investors. The project will occupy around 10 hectares and resemble a conventional petrochemicals facility in terms of engineering complexity. It will include reactors, pressure vessels, piping, electrical systems and process-control equipment. We estimate production of around 75,000 t/yr. Based on current engineering work, we estimate capital expenditure at around €700mn. But at this stage, the estimate carries a margin of error of roughly 30pc. The Feed studies will provide a much more precise assessment. Does the project include on-site hydrogen production? Not necessarily. We plan to source hydrogen externally and have it delivered to the plant. Hydrogen can be produced in different areas, and could be delivered by sea, or carried in a pipeline. From our perspective, suppliers need to provide hydrogen ‘over the fence' in a suitable condition for use in our facility. The key requirement is that the hydrogen complies with EU renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) and revised renewable energy directive criteria. And it is important that it is at a price that allows us to be competitive in the e-SAF market. Which e-SAF production pathway are you pursuing? We are focused on the Fischer-Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene (FT-SPK) pathway. We do not pursue methanol-to-jet or ethanol-to-jet pathways because we believe FT-SPK is currently the most mature and efficient route in terms of energy use and hydrogen consumption. What are the main challenges facing e-SAF developers today? The biggest challenge is reaching a final investment decision. Developers must convince investors to commit substantial capital to large, first-of-a-kind facilities. Investors need confidence that feedstocks will be available, demand will exist, and that the final product can be sold profitably over the long term. The market remains cautious. Various support mechanisms are being discussed, including the EU's proposed double-auction system, but developers still face uncertainty regarding policy stability and project economics. Long term, bankable offtake agreements are critical because these facilities require investment horizons of 10 to 15 years. While being a first mover presents opportunities, it also means carrying a large portion of the technology and market risk. What is your market outlook for the coming years? I see 2027 as a pivotal year. By then, the policy framework and market support mechanisms need to be sufficiently developed to allow projects to move forward. By 2030, when mandates begin taking effect under ReFuelEU Aviation, operational e-SAF plants will need to be supplying the market. Otherwise, airlines and airports will face compliance requirements without having adequate fuel available. What is the opportunity for newer companies like SAF+ IG in the SAF space? One interesting aspect of this market is that many major oil companies have not yet aggressively pursued SAF or e-SAF development. Their absence has created opportunities for smaller, innovative companies like ours. At the same time, it raises an important question about why large, well-capitalised refiners have chosen not to move more aggressively into greenfield e-SAF projects. One reason may be that traditional refiners are focused on extending the value of existing assets rather than building entirely new facilities. Co-processing offers an attractive option because existing refineries can be modified to produce SAF with relatively modest investment, compared with constructing dedicated e-SAF plants. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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