Mexico 2Q GDP data, surveys point to slower economy

Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Metals
02/08/24

Private-sector analysts have lowered estimates for Mexico's 2024 and 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth while raising inflation forecasts for both years, the central bank said Thursday.

For a fourth consecutive month, the survey's median forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 declined, with analysts polled lowering growth estimates to 1.8pc for 2024 from 2pc in last month's survey. The 2025 growth forecast slipped to 1.61pc from 1.78pc.

The shift in forecasts arrives on the heels of preliminary second quarter GDP data, posted by statistics agency Inegi 30 July, showing the economy grew by an annual 2.2pc in the second quarter, up from 1.6pc in the first quarter but slowing from 3.5pc in the second quarter 2023.

The central bank's 2024 GDP estimate was lower than a 2.4pc estimate from Mexican bank Banorte.

Median projections for end-2024 inflation in the central bank's private-sector survey for July moved to 4.58pc from 4.23pc, with end-2025 projections rising to 3.83pc from 3.76pc in the June survey.

The central bank cited higher risks to inflation from a weakening peso and a potentially severe hurricane season in its latest monetary policy decision on 27 June when it held its target interest rate at 11pc. The peso weakened above 19 pesos to the US dollar Friday for the first time since January 2023, extending the losses triggered after 2 June elections that effectively erased congressional opposition to the progressive Morena party. It has weakened from 16.3 pesos to the dollar early April, its strongest level in more than eight years.

Growth in the industrial sector grew by an annual 1.9pc in the second quarter from 0.9pc in the first quarter, while services grew by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 2.1pc in the prior quarter, according to the latest GDP report. Agriculture contracted by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 0.6pc growth in the first quarter.

"The economy's exceptional momentum in previous years may be running out of steam," said Mexican bank Banorte in a note on the GDP report.

Banorte noted uncertainty in manufacturing, "although some of the early nearshoring-related investments could begin to result into more production. In addition, the auto sector remains strong, key to driving the category forward."

The downtrend is supported by comments from ratings agency Moody's out this week, predicting a "substantial slowdown" in the second half of 2024.

By James Young

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

22/04/25

South Korea's LGES exits Indonesia's $8.4bn EV project

Singapore, 22 April (Argus) — Top South Korean battery firm LG Energy Solution (LGES) has pulled out of Indonesia's Grand Package project, which is supposed to be an integrated electric vehicle (EV) battery project worth 142 trillion Indonesia rupiah ($8.4bn). "Taking into account various factors, including market conditions and investment environment, we have agreed to formally withdraw from the Indonesia [Grand Package] GP project," LGES told Argus on 22 April. The mega project was in the making since 2019. It involves an LG consortium that consists of multiple South Korean firms including LGES, LG Chem, LX International and Posco Future M, major Chinese cobalt refiner and nickel-cobalt-manganese precursor producer Huayou, Indonesian state-controlled mining firm Aneka Tambang (Antam) as well as consortium Indonesia Battery. Original plans included building a $1.1bn battery cell plant and were supposed to be followed by a smelter, precursor and cathode plant as well as "mining cooperation" with Antam. "However, we will continue to explore various avenues of collaboration with the Indonesian government, centering on the Indonesia battery joint venture, HLI Green Power," the firm added. The HLI Green Power is LGES' 10 GWh/yr Indonesian battery production joint venture with South Korean conglomerate Hyundai Motor, which started mass production last April. LGES earlier this year also invested in Chinese battery cathode maker Lopal Tech's lithium iron phosphate plant in Indonesia . LGES last year said it plans to reduce its dependence on the EV battery business and has signed multiple energy storage system battery supply deals so far this year, including with Taiwanese electronics manufacturing firm Delta Electronics and Polish state-controlled utility PGE . By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India imposes 12pc safeguard duty on flat steel imports

22/04/25

India imposes 12pc safeguard duty on flat steel imports

Mumbai, 22 April (Argus) — The Indian government has imposed a 12pc provisional duty on certain flat steel imports for 200 days to shield the domestic steel industry. The duty, applicable from 21 April, was implemented following a recommendation by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies in March. It covers products under HS codes 7208, 7209, 7210, 7211, 7212, 7225 and 7226, the ministry of finance said in a notification. As recommended by the DGTR, the duty is only applicable if the import price is below a certain threshold, which is different for each product. For hot-rolled coils (HRC), the safeguard duty will not be applicable if the product is imported at or above $675/t cif, while the threshold is set at $824/t cif for cold-rolled coils. Domestic Indian steelmakers in 2024 sought protection from lower-priced imports from China and other Asian suppliers, which pushed local HRC prices to multi-year lows last year. The DGTR subsequently launched a safeguard investigation in December 2024. HRC prices rebounded last month, partly because of rumors and speculation around potential safeguard measures, and received a further boost following the duty proposal on 18 March. The Argus weekly Indian domestic HRC assessment for 2.5-4mm material reached over an eight-month high of 52,100 rupees/t ($612/t) ex-Mumbai, excluding goods and services tax, on 4 April, increasing by 9pc compared to the end of February. Sentiment shifted over the last few weeks because of escalating US-China trade tensions, with the assessment falling to Rs51,000/t on 17 April as restocking interest cooled. Surging imports pose a threat to the domestic industry and there is a need to implement provisional safeguard measures immediately, the DGTR said in its recommendations. India remained a net importer of finished steel in the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year, with inflows increasing by 15pc on the year to 9.5mn t, according to ministry data. China has been a major supplier, owing to its weak domestic market, while imports from countries which India has a free-trade agreement with — such as South Korea and Japan — have also risen. South Korea was the top supplier to India during April 2024-February 2025, and accounted for 30pc of its total finished steel imports. Among developing countries, only China and Vietnam will be subject to safeguard duties. "Unchecked imports — especially from countries with significant excess capacity — threaten domestic manufacturing, employment, and future investments," said Indian producer Tata Steel's chief executive T.V. Narendran. "This decision will help restore fair competition, ensure the industry's long-term sustainability, and support India's vision of a self-reliant and globally competitive steel sector," Narendran added. The trade market reaction to the safeguard duty implementation was mixed, with some saying mills could take a cautious approach as buyers have been resisting latest price hikes, while others said steelmakers were likely to hike prices immediately. Indian steel mills increased prices by about Rs4,000/t following rumors around safeguards and the duty proposal, and now a further uptrend in prices is expected, an international steel trader said. A local steel distributor said steel mills would definitely raise prices, but in May instead of this month. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India’s thermal coal imports ease in March

21/04/25

India’s thermal coal imports ease in March

Singapore, 21 April (Argus) — India's thermal coal imports in March fell on the year for the seventh consecutive month, pressured by rising domestic output and high inventories even as coal-fired generation expanded. The country imported 14.1mn t of thermal coal in March, down by 1.2pc from a year earlier, but up by over 24pc from 11.33mn t in February, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. Coal arrivals declined year-on-year across key origins barring Indonesia and South Africa. India's cumulative imports over January-March stood at 38.3mn t, down by 8.6pc from 41.9mn t in the same period a year earlier, according to Interocean data. Demand for imported coal fell as domestic availability continued to rise. The combined output from state-controlled Coal India (CIL), Singareni Collieries (SCCL) and captive blocks reached 118.54mn t in March, up by 1.6pc from a year earlier, according to data from the country's coal ministry. Overall supplies stood at 94.94mn t, up by 5.1pc from a year earlier. Combined coal supplies to utilities from domestic sources stood at 78.46mn t in March, up by 6.3pc from a year earlier and up from 69.61mn t in February, coal ministry data show. The increase in domestic coal output and supplies helped utilities to increase stocks to cater for an increase in coal consumption at power plants in March. But the higher domestic coal availability pressured imports. The country's coal-fired generation reached 117.95TWh in March, up from 112.82TWh a year earlier and well above the 106.18TWh in February, according to Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data. Higher temperatures and increased air conditioning use lifted coal-fired output in March. Coal burn at utilities could remain elevated over the summer months and exacerbate drawdowns from stocks at power plants and at coal producer CIL. Combined coal inventories at Indian power plants stood at 58.11mn t as of 31 March, up from 50.69mn t a year earlier, and up from 54.59mn t on 28 February, the CEA said. Inventories at CIL reached an all-time high of 106.8mn t as of 31 March, up from 89.41mn t a year earlier. Import mix Imports from Indonesia grew to 9.68mn t in March from 9.23mn t a year earlier, and were sharply higher from 6.75mn t in February, Interocean data show. Indonesia continued to be the primary supplier of imported coal to India in March, accounting for nearly 69pc of overall thermal coal imports, up from almost 60pc in February. Imports from South Africa, a source favoured by coal-consuming industries like sponge iron, rose by 72pc from a year earlier to 2.32mn t, but fell from 2.42mn t in February. Demand from India's coal-intensive sponge iron industry, which is a major consumer of South African NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal, remained resilient following a stimulus measure from the Indian government to introduce steel safeguards , which in turn has driven domestic sponge iron prices higher. By Ajay Modi India thermal coal imports in March 2025 t Origin Quantity % ± m-o-m % ± y-o-y Indonesia 9,684,944 43.4 5 South Africa 2,323,265 -4 72.1 USA 1,132,417 66.8 -17.1 Russia 435,120 -27.1 -20.8 Mozambique 68,306 -42.7 -85.7 Others 458,288 -21.4 -44.1 Total 14,102,340 24.4 -1.2 Source: Interocean Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alcoa expects to incur $90mn 2Q hit from tariffs

21/04/25

Alcoa expects to incur $90mn 2Q hit from tariffs

Houston, 21 April (Argus) — US-based integrated aluminum producer Alcoa anticipates $90mn in tariff-related costs associated with importing primary aluminum from Canada during the second quarter. For the full year, the Pennsylvania-based company foresees that figure rising to between $400mn-425mn, as 70pc of its production from Canada "is destined for US customers," Alcoa chief executive William Oplinger said in a first-quarter earnings call late Wednesday. A higher Midwest premium should help offset most of those cost pressures in support of Alcoa's domestic smelters, but Oplinger warned that the company still faces a $100mn negative impact on its business in 2025 because of the higher Section 232 duties that US president Donald Trump implemented on 12 March. The company noted that the US lacks the infrastructure to cover domestic aluminum consumption, even if all other idled smelting capacity here would restart. "Until additional smelting capacity is built in the US, the most efficient aluminum supply chain is Canadian aluminum going into the US," Oplinger said. By his estimate, at least five domestic smelters would need to be added, but construction would take "many years" and investment would be partially dependent on access to new — and cheap — energy sources. "These new smelters would require additional energy production equivalent to almost seven new nuclear reactors or more than 10 Hoover dams," Oplinger said. Still, Alcoa maintained its full-year production and sales volume guidance for aluminum products, ranging between 2.3mn-2.5mn metric tonnes (t) and 2.6mn-2.8mn t, respectively. It also kept its outlook for alumina output and shipments unchanged at 9.5mn-9.7mn t and 13.1mn-13.3mn t, respectively. First-quarter aluminum production increased by 4pc to 564,000t from the prior-year period, while total sales volumes fell by 3.9pc in the same timeframe, reflecting timing of shipments and the end of its offtake agreement with Saudi Arabia Mining (Ma'aden) as part of its planned divestment from the entities' aluminum joint venture. Alumina output in January-March dropped by 12pc to 2.4mn t on the year, while shipments fell by 12pc as well, to 2.1mn t. Alcoa attributed the drop in sales volumes to timing of shipments and reduced trading. Quarterly bauxite production fell by 5.9pc to 9.5mn dry metric tonnes (dmt) from the prior-year period, while sales volumes increased by 67pc to 3mn dmt. The company was able to capitalize on supply tightness in the bauxite market that has helped elevate prices to $80-85/dmt, selling cargoes in the spot market. Alcoa posted a $548mn profit in the first quarter compared to a loss of $252mn in the prior-year period. Revenues increased by 30pc to nearly $3.4bn in the same timeframe. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada grants tariff relief to automakers

17/04/25

Canada grants tariff relief to automakers

Pittsburgh, 17 April (Argus) — The Canadian government will allow automakers to circumvent retaliatory tariffs to continue importing US-assembled vehicles if the companies keep making cars in Canada. Canada began taxing imports of US-made vehicles and parts on 9 April at a 25pc rate in response to a similar tariff the US had implemented. Canada's tariff on vehicle imports from the US will not apply to car companies that keep their Canadian plants running, the country's finance minister said this week. The measure attempts to prevent closures of auto plants and layoffs in the Canadian automotive sector that the US tariffs threaten to cause. Automaker Stellantis paused production at its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant in early April to evaluate the US tariff on vehicle imports. The plant will re-open on 22 April, Stellantis said. General Motors also plans to reduce production of its electric delivery fan at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. The slowdown will result in layoffs of 500 workers, the Unifor union said. The automotive industry in the US, Canada and Mexico has struggled to adapt its supply chains to the new tariffs because the US, Canada Mexico free trade agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor helped establish an interconnected North American auto sector. In another measure, companies in Canada will get a six-month reprieve from tariffs on imports from the US used in manufacturing, food and beverage packaging. The six-month relief also applies to items Canada imports from the US used in the health care, public safety and national security sectors. "We're giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on US suppliers," finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more