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Mexico 2Q GDP data, surveys point to slower economy

  • : Coal, Crude oil, Metals
  • 24/08/02

Private-sector analysts have lowered estimates for Mexico's 2024 and 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth while raising inflation forecasts for both years, the central bank said Thursday.

For a fourth consecutive month, the survey's median forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 declined, with analysts polled lowering growth estimates to 1.8pc for 2024 from 2pc in last month's survey. The 2025 growth forecast slipped to 1.61pc from 1.78pc.

The shift in forecasts arrives on the heels of preliminary second quarter GDP data, posted by statistics agency Inegi 30 July, showing the economy grew by an annual 2.2pc in the second quarter, up from 1.6pc in the first quarter but slowing from 3.5pc in the second quarter 2023.

The central bank's 2024 GDP estimate was lower than a 2.4pc estimate from Mexican bank Banorte.

Median projections for end-2024 inflation in the central bank's private-sector survey for July moved to 4.58pc from 4.23pc, with end-2025 projections rising to 3.83pc from 3.76pc in the June survey.

The central bank cited higher risks to inflation from a weakening peso and a potentially severe hurricane season in its latest monetary policy decision on 27 June when it held its target interest rate at 11pc. The peso weakened above 19 pesos to the US dollar Friday for the first time since January 2023, extending the losses triggered after 2 June elections that effectively erased congressional opposition to the progressive Morena party. It has weakened from 16.3 pesos to the dollar early April, its strongest level in more than eight years.

Growth in the industrial sector grew by an annual 1.9pc in the second quarter from 0.9pc in the first quarter, while services grew by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 2.1pc in the prior quarter, according to the latest GDP report. Agriculture contracted by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 0.6pc growth in the first quarter.

"The economy's exceptional momentum in previous years may be running out of steam," said Mexican bank Banorte in a note on the GDP report.

Banorte noted uncertainty in manufacturing, "although some of the early nearshoring-related investments could begin to result into more production. In addition, the auto sector remains strong, key to driving the category forward."

The downtrend is supported by comments from ratings agency Moody's out this week, predicting a "substantial slowdown" in the second half of 2024.


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Mideast crisis puts Iran’s energy facilities at risk


24/10/04
24/10/04

Mideast crisis puts Iran’s energy facilities at risk

Dubai, 4 October (Argus) — Iran's large-scale missile attack against Israel on 1 October pushed the Mideast Gulf region another step closer to all-out war, with Israel vowing to retaliate hard for what it saw as "a severe and dangerous escalation." But unlike previous exchanges, which have largely targeted military assets, critical energy infrastructure including oil facilities appear this time to be in Israel's crosshairs. President Joe Biden on 3 October said the US and Israel are discussing possible strikes on Iranian oil facilities as part of consultations on a response. The Biden administration would not provide any details and the only objection it has voiced publicly is against the prospect of an Israeli strike on sites associated with Iran's nuclear programme. The escalating conflict in the region, which began with a surprise cross-border attack by Gaza-based Hamas militants on Israel almost one year ago, has had a limited impact on oil prices, because the effect on physical supply has been almost non-existent despite the scale of the fighting and destruction in Gaza, northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen on oil tankers in the Red Sea rerouted some oil trade without affecting global supply. That could change if Israel makes good on its threat to directly target Iranian oil infrastructure and, especially, if Iran retaliates — as it did in 2019 to a US attempt to cut off its exports — with indiscriminate attacks on oil tankers and infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf. But the extent of the effect on global supply and price will ultimately depend on Israel's intentions, and what kind of facilities are hit. "If the objective is to hurt the country economically, then the most obvious target would be Iran's oil export terminals," said Vortexa senior oil risk analyst Armen Azizian. Despite US sanctions, Iran continues to be a major crude producer — the third biggest in Opec — and a notable exporter. Oil exports averaged around 1.55mn-1.6mn b/d in the first half of this year, rising to 1.65mn-1.7mn b/d in July-August. Early indications suggest September exports were higher still. Iran has several terminals from where it exports its crude and condensate, all on its Mideast Gulf coast. But one, on Kharg Island, dwarves all others in terms of importance. "About 90-95pc of Iran's oil exports typically come out of Kharg, with the other 5-10pc coming out of considerably smaller terminals, such as Soroush, Sirri or Lavan," Azizian said. "Hitting one of those smaller streams wouldn't impact Iran too much, operationally. But if they decide to take Kharg offline, we're talking about a hit of around 1.5mn b/d to its export capacity." Knock-on effects When Iran was struggling to sell its oil because of sanctions the US imposed in 2018, it had upwards of 60mn-70mn bl in floating storage. But these have fallen to just shy of 40mn bl, which would only sustain exports of about 1.3mn b/d for a month, Azizian noted. Iran has onshore storage, but many of the biggest tanks are at Kharg, which could be at risk of damage should the terminal be targeted. An attack on Kharg Island would strike at the heart of the Iranian economy, given how big a chunk of Iran's foreign exchange revenues come from the sale of its oil. Nearly all Iran's exports are absorbed by refiners in China's Shandong province. But the effect of potentially removing 1.5mn b/d from global supply would be felt far beyond Iran and China, as global markets would be forced to adapt. Crude futures moved higher this week on the prospect of Israeli strikes against Iran. The Biden administration for the past year has worked to keep the conflict from escalating, in part because of the potential knock-on effects on oil prices — a key consideration in the US election campaign where Biden's vice-president, Kamala Harris, is facing former president Donald Trump. If the confrontation results in an Iranian outage, avoiding a price rise would require a co-ordinated move by the US and other large consumers and, possibly, by the wider Opec+ group, to ensure supplies can be brought to the market. Opec+ is holding back close to 6mn b/d of production under a series of formal and voluntary cuts, which it could bring back sooner than currently planned. But doing so in response to an attack on Iran could stoke tensions within Opec and between Iran and its Mideast Gulf Arab neighbours, which improved relations with Tehran in recent years. The US would be hard pressed to again guarantee the security of key oil infrastructure facilities across the region. The tepid initial US response to a 2019 attack on Saudi state-controlled Aramco's Abqaiq complex and to a 2022 attack on UAE energy facilities prompted regional producers to consider Washington's military security guarantee as falling short. Kpler senior oil analyst Homayoun Falakshahi sees the the probability of an attack on Kharg Island as low, given China's relations with Israel and Iran. "I imagine China will put as much pressure on Israel not to target Iran's exports," Falakshahi said. Refining plans Alternatively, Israel could opt to target one or more of Iran's 10 oil refineries or condensate splitters that are largely concentrated in the west of the country. Discussion at an industry conference in Fujairah this week about a possible Israeli retaliation centred on Iran's largest refinery, the recently expanded 630,000 b/d capacity Abadan in Khuzestan province. Targeting Abadan was seen as a less provocative move, while still providing a warning to Tehran that energy installations are ‘in play' and hitting Iran's domestic products supply. A hit to Abadan would be significant, but not impossible to navigate for Iran, according to Falakshahi, who notes it produces mostly fuel oil, a product primarily consumed domestically with some exported to Fujairah in the UAE, China and Singapore, among other destinations. Abadan produces other products such as gasoline, which Iran has recently had to begin importing again to meet demand, but output is only enough to meet around 12-13pc of consumption. "It will primarily impact the local market, but little else," Falakshahi said. "But not to the same extent as if, say, the 360,000 b/d Persian Gulf Star condensate splitter was targeted, as that alone delivers enough to meet around 20-25pc of local gasoline demand." Gasoline is a politically-sensitive issue in Iran, with even minor changes in the price of the road fuel sometimes sparking charged demonstrations and riots. More than 200 people were killed in riots in November 2019 triggered by a sudden cut to subsidies that resulted in a sharp increase in gasoline prices. Israel has so far not given any public hints as to when it plans to retaliate or how. But with tensions in the region already at the highest they have been for some years, Iran will be on high alert, and upping security where it can. A trading source told Argus that Iran's state-owned NIOC has in recent days moved many of its empty tankers away from Kharg Island. By Nader Itayim Iran’s oil refineries and terminals Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep


24/10/04
24/10/04

US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep

Houston, 4 October (Argus) — The US added more jobs than expected in September and the unemployment rate ticked down, signs the labor market is strengthening heading into the US presidential election. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 workers last month, and the jobless rate fell to 4.1pc, the Labor Department reported Friday. Gains in August were revised up by 17,000 to 159,000 and those in July were revised up by 55,000 to 144,000. September's job gains were much higher than the 140,000 estimated by economists in a Trading Economics survey. Job gains blew past expectations in the same month the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020, citing concerns that a weakening labor market might pull down the overall economy. Odds of a quarter point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in November rose to 91pc today from about 68pc Thursday, according to fed funds futures markets, while odds of a half-point cut fell to 9pc. The Fed last month penciled in 50 basis points of cuts in the remainder of this year. Job gains were higher than the average monthly gains of 203,000 over the prior 12 months, the Labor Department reported. Employment continued to move higher in food services and drinking establishments, health care, government, social assistance and construction. The labor market was little affected by Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana on 11 September, during the reference periods for the surveys that contribute to the report. Gains in restaurants and drinking places rose by 69,000 jobs, much higher than the average 14,000 added over the prior 12 months. Health care added 45,000 jobs, below the monthly average of 57,000. Government added 31,000 compared with monthly averages of 45,000. Social assistance added 27,000. Construction added 25,000, near the monthly average. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs, most of them in the auto industry. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2pc in August, still higher than the five-decade low of 3.4pc posted in early 2023. Average hourly earnings rose by 4pc in the 12 months through September, up from 3.8pc through August. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American


24/10/04
24/10/04

Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American

London, 4 October (Argus) — Europe's stainless steel producers will continue to import and use nickel pig iron (NPI) until the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive period in 2026, according to John Eastwood, major nickel mining group Anglo American's head of sales, stainless and specialty steel raw materials. A region-wide scarcity of stainless steel scrap and rising raw material costs drove European mills to pivot to using the cheaper and more carbon-intensive Indonesian NPI this year, with imports equating to 10,000t of nickel metal content in January-July, according to Red Door Research managing director Jim Lennon. A European trading firm told Argus this week that Spanish producer Acerinox, ramping up production after a five-month strike-related outage this year, has also committed to using NPI as input feedstock. Speaking on the sidelines of the Nickel Institute Seminar during LME Week on 2 October, Eastwood said this trend will not die down in the near term despite recent falls in scrap prices, with only CBAM — the EU's tax measure to limit carbon leakage within the region and support its long-term climate goals — being a likely deterrent. Currently in its trial phase before full planned implementation in 2026, CBAM requires European importers to offset the CO2 emissions linked with the production of the goods purchased overseas by buying emissions certificates. Scrap suppliers in Europe are waiting as they realise they cannot compete with NPI, with the downside to prices likely to be limited as a result, Eastwood said. The Argus assessment for stainless steel scrap 304 (18-8) solids cif Rotterdam has fallen by nearly 20pc since 22 August and was last at an average €1,175/t. The European stainless steel industry is facing a severe downturn with real demand set to shrink for a third straight year in 2025. Flat producers in particular are operating at well below capacity amid low downstream service centre demand, and Eastwood foresees no change to fundamentals until the second half of 2025. "The problem is not profitability, the problem is there is excess capacity," Eastwood said. "We had Acerinox out of the market for months this year, but it made little difference to the market and prices. Despite a shortage of scrap, there was no impact on our ferro-nickel sales, which tells you how weak the market is." Eastwood believes the second half of 2025 is when demand might recover as the effect of improving macros and easing monetary policy will start to kick in. CBAM has come under intense criticism from European stainless steel producers given that it does not include scope 3 emissions while imposing taxes on selected upstream raw materials, with many producers simply viewing it as a protectionist measure that is fast-tracking de-industrialisation. Eastwood echoed this sentiment and stressed on reform, but said the industry had now accepted that it was here to stay. "There are many holes [in CBAM]. It includes ferro-nickel but leaves out refined nickel, for example," he said. "It is not uniform for the whole supply chain. Average CBAM costs are about $1,000/t of nickel. It is not clear who will pay this." Anglo American's projections peg the class 1 nickel market as the sole provider of market surpluses in the coming years, with the Asian class 2 market, including NPI and ferro-nickel, balanced and even tight, Eastwood said. Nickel prices on the LME are expected to move similarly in 2025 relative to this year. "The wider surplus story is here to stay," Eastwood said. "The story about nickel rocketing up is over. We do not expect much change." Eastwood noted freight costs as a significant limiting factor for the stainless steel industry next year, curbing imports of finished stainless steel into Europe. "Freight prices have been astronomical, and we expect it to remain the same next year," he said. "These costs will weigh heavily on trading, whether imports or otherwise." By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в Казахстане в октябре снизилась


24/10/04
24/10/04

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в Казахстане в октябре снизилась

Riga, 4 October (Argus) — Ставка экспортной пошлины на нефть в Казахстане в октябре уменьшилась до $77/т с $82/т — в сентябре. Среднее значение котировок сорта Kebco (cif Аугуста) и Североморского датированного в период мониторинга цен с 20 июля по 20 сентября составило $77/барр. по сравнению с $82/барр. — в период предыдущего мониторинга, по данным министерства финансов Казахстана. С сентября 2023 г. ежемесячная ставка пошлины на экспорт нефти и нефтепродуктов в Казахстане меняется при изменении средней мировой цены на $1/барр. вместо прежних $5/барр. в пределах диапазона $25—105/барр. При средней рыночной цене нефти $25—105/барр. размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины рассчитывается по следующей формуле: ВТП=Ср*К, где ВТП — размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины на нефть и нефтепродукты в долларах США за тонну; Ср — средняя рыночная цена нефти за предшествующий период; К — поправочный коэффициент 1. При значении средней рыночной цены на нефть до $25/барр. размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины равен нулю. При цене свыше $105/барр. применяются ставки вывозной пошлины в диапазоне от $115/т до $236/т. Средняя рыночная цена определяется министерством финансов Казахстана ежемесячно на основании мониторинга котировок Kebco и Североморского датированного в течение двух предыдущих месяцев. Полученный результат мониторинга в соответствии с поправками математически округляется до целого числа. По условиям действующих контрактов от уплаты пошлины освобождены крупнейшие экспортеры сырья: Тенгизшевройл (ТШО), Karachaganak Petroleum Operating (KPO) и акционеры NCOC, разрабатывающего месторождение Кашаган. Экспорт сырья из Казахстана в январе — августе снизился до 46 млн т с 47,1 млн т — годом ранее, по данным Ситуационно-аналитического центра топливно-энергетического комплекса Республики Казахстан (САЦ ТЭК). ТШО, КРО и NCOC за указанный период отправили за рубеж 38,7 млн т без уплаты экспортных пошлин. Пошлина на вывоз из Казахстана бензина, дизтоплива, авиакеросина и других дистиллятов в октябре также уменьшится до $77/т с сентябрьских $82/т. Ставка экспортной пошлины на экспорт мазута из Казахстана с 8 сентября составляет $30/т. Согласно внесенным в сентябре изменениям в приказ министерства национальной экономики Казахстана, указанный размер вывозной пошлины на мазут будет действовать в течение всего года. Ставка экспортной пошлины на экспорт вакуумного газойля из Казахстана в октябре составит $60/т. ________________ Больше ценовой информации и аналитических материалов о рынках нефти и нефтепродуктов стран Каспийского региона и Центральной Азии — в еженедельном отчете Argus Рынок Каспия . Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

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