Mexico 2Q GDP data, surveys point to slower economy

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Metals
02/08/24

Private-sector analysts have lowered estimates for Mexico's 2024 and 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth while raising inflation forecasts for both years, the central bank said Thursday.

For a fourth consecutive month, the survey's median forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 declined, with analysts polled lowering growth estimates to 1.8pc for 2024 from 2pc in last month's survey. The 2025 growth forecast slipped to 1.61pc from 1.78pc.

The shift in forecasts arrives on the heels of preliminary second quarter GDP data, posted by statistics agency Inegi 30 July, showing the economy grew by an annual 2.2pc in the second quarter, up from 1.6pc in the first quarter but slowing from 3.5pc in the second quarter 2023.

The central bank's 2024 GDP estimate was lower than a 2.4pc estimate from Mexican bank Banorte.

Median projections for end-2024 inflation in the central bank's private-sector survey for July moved to 4.58pc from 4.23pc, with end-2025 projections rising to 3.83pc from 3.76pc in the June survey.

The central bank cited higher risks to inflation from a weakening peso and a potentially severe hurricane season in its latest monetary policy decision on 27 June when it held its target interest rate at 11pc. The peso weakened above 19 pesos to the US dollar Friday for the first time since January 2023, extending the losses triggered after 2 June elections that effectively erased congressional opposition to the progressive Morena party. It has weakened from 16.3 pesos to the dollar early April, its strongest level in more than eight years.

Growth in the industrial sector grew by an annual 1.9pc in the second quarter from 0.9pc in the first quarter, while services grew by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 2.1pc in the prior quarter, according to the latest GDP report. Agriculture contracted by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 0.6pc growth in the first quarter.

"The economy's exceptional momentum in previous years may be running out of steam," said Mexican bank Banorte in a note on the GDP report.

Banorte noted uncertainty in manufacturing, "although some of the early nearshoring-related investments could begin to result into more production. In addition, the auto sector remains strong, key to driving the category forward."

The downtrend is supported by comments from ratings agency Moody's out this week, predicting a "substantial slowdown" in the second half of 2024.

By James Young

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

03/10/24

Dockworkers end US port strike

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — US dockworkers have ended a port strike that had shut container terminals from Maine to Texas, after their union late Thursday struck a tentative agreement on wages. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) has agreed to extend its contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) until 15 January to provide time for negotiating the remaining outstanding issues, the ILA said in a statement. The USMX includes containership owners, terminal operators and port associations. "Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the master contract will resume," the ILA said. The strike, which started on 1 October, had forced containership operators to queue up outside US east coast ports. Major container shipping agencies such as Maersk had initiated surcharges for US east coast and Gulf coast-bound containers later in October. By Jack Kaskey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

US light vehicle sales surged in September

03/10/24

News

03/10/24

US light vehicle sales surged in September

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023. The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy. Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend. Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Israel-Iran conflict threatens Mena steel supply

03/10/24

News

03/10/24

Israel-Iran conflict threatens Mena steel supply

London, 3 October (Argus) — The escalating Israel-Iran conflict could lead to a shortage of steel and steelmaking raw materials in the Mena region because of potential logistical disruptions and a surge in freight prices. Tensions have risen after the killing of the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah militia Hassan Nasrallah , by Israel on 27 September, which sparked retaliation from Iran. This has seen an increase in attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, disrupting trade routes. The conflict could adversely affect construction and steel demand in the Mena region, which remains a key export outlet for long steel products, as well as billets. "The attacks are highly likely to increase and imports from Asia to Turkey will be negatively impacted due to high freight and therefore, high steel prices," said a Turkish integrated producer whose steel cargo was targeted by Houthi missiles a few months ago. An international iron ore trader echoed this, expecting freight prices to increase. Over the past few years, Israel and Yemen were important rebar export destinations for Turkey. But in April , Turkey imposed a trade ban on Israel. Turkish rebar exports to Yemen have sharply dropped owing to risks to shipments. Currently steel trading activity with Lebanon is on hold . Lebanon typically purchases high volumes of long steel, particularly rebar, from Egypt, Algeria and Libya. Market participants in the UAE, a major producer and consumer in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), had previously anticipated a strong final quarter of the year, because of expected increases in construction activity from large-scale projects. But should the situation escalates, projects could be on hold and demand will shrink, a producer warned. Trading in Oman faces greater risk compared with other GCC countries because of its shared border with Yemen. The conflict could also negatively impact the flat steel industry in north Africa, as many re-rollers import hot-rolled coils (HRC) for re-rolling or coating, often finding it more feasible to use supply from Asia rather than local material. "HRC imports to Algeria will be endangered and this will increase prices of cold-rolled coils (CRC) and galvanised steel prices," a market participant commented. By Elif Eyuboglu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Japan to phase out inefficient coal plants by 2030

03/10/24

News

03/10/24

Japan to phase out inefficient coal plants by 2030

London, 3 October (Argus) — Japan will target a phase-out of inefficient coal plants by 2030, as it continues its energy transition push, although the country is still yet to provide further details on any broader movement away from coal. "By 2030, the inefficient use of coal-fired power will be phased out," Japan's newly appointed environment minister Keiichiro Asao said at a press conference on Wednesday. Asao was appointed after Japan's new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba took office this week. Japan had earlier pledged to phase out "unabated" coal-fired plants by 2035 , or "in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of a 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net zero pathways". But inefficient, sub-critical coal plants — with below 40pc efficiency — make up only 22pc of Japan's total fleet, while 25pc is supercritical and 53pc is ultra-supercritical. The sub-critical plants probably produce less of Japan's coal-fired electricity, given the generation margins for them will fall below the majority of gas-fired generation in the merit order. This means Japan's overall coal-fired power generation is likely to be less impacted than the overall change to its coal fleet capacity. Japan has been considered a laggard in green energy transition among its G7 counterparts, but the country's coal demand could decline to some extent as a result of global divestment pressure. But coal is still key to the resource-poor country, as the government sees renewables and nuclear as insufficient to meet rising power demand driven by the growth of data centres needed to enable artificial intelligence. Japan's new government has recently announced that it will be restarting more of its nuclear reactors to help meet its power demand. Utility Shikoku Electric Power reactivated its sole nuclear reactor at Ikata on 29 September, after closing the unit for turnaround since 19 July. But the utility pushed back the restart of the 890MW Ikata No.3 nuclear reactor on Wednesday because of a technical issue during the process of resuming power generation. Japanese thermal coal imports rose by 10pc to 9.25mn t on the year in August, owing to increased deliveries from Australia. But this was 4pc lower than the past five-year August average of 9.6mn t. By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Colombia coal mining could halt with government decree

03/10/24

News

03/10/24

Colombia coal mining could halt with government decree

Bogota, 3 October (Argus) — Colombia's coal operations could come to a stop as the government will soon start issuing resolutions that regulate mining areas as temporary environmental reserves, Colombian Mining Association (ACM) director Juan Camilo Narino said. The decree, enacted on 30 January, states the country's environment ministry will identify, delimit and declare through administrative acts reserves of natural resources in areas that require restoration and rehabilitation. Such areas will become environmentally protected zones for five years with the possibility of extending that period for an additional five years. The decree takes away the autonomy and competence of the Regional Autonomous Corporations, which until now grants key licensing to keep coal operations running, but without those licences, coal operations could come to a halt, Narino told Argus on the sidelines of a hydrocarbon summit held in Cartagena. Narino said coal, gold, copper and other types of mining firms are extremely concerned with the potential resolutions due to be issued as they need minor licences granted by the corporations. Such licensing includes environmental licences to pour water into channels, take water from rivers and to pass over rivers. The environment ministry is likely to announce those resolutions at the CBD Cop 16 in Cali, Colombia, on 21 October-2 November. Colombia is set to champion a comprehensive and regionally inclusive approach to biodiversity conservation and climate action at this conference. "The decree clearly states that those corporations could no longer grant permits," Narino said. "As a result, the operating activity of existing licences is unfeasible as you can no longer operate without those minor licences." ACM has filed a lawsuit against the decree, while 11 industry unions, including the regional autonomous corporations, joined in suing the government in a lawsuit submitted on 6 August. They filed the lawsuits with Colombia's state council, the highest administrative court in the country, while requesting precautionary measures including halting the decree. The state council agreed on studying the lawsuit and could annul the ruling, but it could take 6-12 months to examine the case. The state council must listen to the defendants — the environment ministry — lawyer Luis Eduardo Delgado Martinez said. Environmental minister Susana Muhamad was summoned by congress to face a political control debate to explain the scope of the decree, Narino noted. Narino levelled several other criticisms against the decree, including calling the time frame of the temporary environmental reserve designations arbitrary. He also said IT bypasses other legal and constitutional norms. By Diana Delgado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more