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Viewpoint: China to keep dragging on shipping rates

  • Spanish Market: Freight
  • 30/12/24

Low appetite for crude oil and dry bulk commodities in China will keep a lid on next year's shipping rates, which are steaming toward their lowest fourth quarter since pandemic-hobbled 2021.

China remains the world's top oil importer, receiving about a quarter of what oil tankers carry on a given day, but the country's oil consumption is slowing. China's turn toward electric vehicles, LNG-powered trucks and high-speed rail will continue to eat into the country's oil demand, even as its economy continues to grow.

China's economy is expected to expand by 4.7pc in 2025, below this year's 4.9pc, but the country's oil demand is set to rise by only 2pc.

In September-November this year, China's waterborne crude imports dropped by the equivalent of 10 2mn bl very large crude carriers (VLCCs) per month. And with the Chinese government's decision to cut rebates for refined product exports to 9pc from 13pc, the country's refiners will be further discouraged from importing crude.

The lack of China-bound cargoes has lowered the average VLCC rate on the Mideast Gulf-China route to $1.64/bl so far in the fourth quarter, its lowest fourth quarter level since 2021 and down by 25pc year over year.

While longer-haul tanker voyages resulting from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and sanctions on Russian oil will continue to exert upward pressure on the tanker market into next year, barring any geopolitical breakthroughs, the lack of crude cargoes to the world's top oil importer will keep crude freight rates subdued.

VLCC weakness is trickling down

Rates for 1mn bl Suezmaxes and 700,000 bl Aframaxes are feeling the pain too as those segments compete with VLCCs in many regions such as the US Gulf coast, west Africa and the Middle East.

Like the Mideast Gulf VLCC market, the US Gulf coast-Europe Aframax rate for 90,000t cargoes is on track for its lowest fourth quarter average since 2021 as well, falling by 20pc to $3.47/bl from a year earlier.

The weakness will not be confined to the dirty tanker market. Next year, low dirty tanker rates will likely continue to encourage ship operators to move more VLCCs into clean freight service. This typically rare practice has become more common this year and is putting downward pressure on the product tanker market. So far in the fourth quarter, the Mideast Gulf to Asia-Pacific clean long range (LR1) rate is down by 31pc year over year and the US Gulf coast-Chile clean medium range (MR) rate is down by 29pc.

With shipyards delivering 2-3pc of existing tanker capacity to the water next year, the tanker fleet is likely to be sufficiently supplied to meet the world's ocean-going oil transportation demands unless tanker scrapping activity accelerates. Demand for older tankers plying sanctioned trades and middling scrap steel prices are keeping mass tanker demolitions in check.

Dry bulk operators feel China housing blues

In the dry bulk market, fleet growth of around 3pc will be enough to accommodate what is expected to be modestly increased demand for shipping dry commodities such as iron ore, coal, and grains next year.

China plays an even more outsized role in the dry bulk market because it receives nearly 45pc of the world's dry bulk cargoes. The country's bearish real estate sector threatens the dry bulk market's largest demand driver, iron ore.

A 10pc decline in investment in its real estate sector this year spells weak construction demand in the next and bodes poorly for dry bulk ship operators hoping for a resurgent appetite for iron ore to make steel.

Sluggish growth in China-bound iron ore shipments has already helped pull the Brazil-to-China Capesize iron ore freight rate down by 15pc to $21.30/t so far in the fourth quarter from a year prior. Capesize operator earnings have fallen below $10,000/d, near operating expense levels, for the first time since August 2023.


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04/02/25

EU maritime emissions continue to rise: EMSA

EU maritime emissions continue to rise: EMSA

London, 4 February (Argus) — Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the EU's maritime sector have continued to rise since 2015, the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) found in its 2025 environmental report, although "promising progress" has been made in some areas. Maritime activity was responsible for 26pc of methane emissions and 39pc of NOx emissions in the EU transport sector in 2022, as well as for 14.2pc of CO2 emissions from the sector, the report said. Methane emissions from maritime "at least doubled" from 2018-23, the report found, pushed up by growth in the LNG fleet. NOx emissions rose by 10pc from 2015-23, while CO2 emissions totalled 137mn t in 2022, having risen by 8.5pc from a year earlier. But sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions fell by approximately 70pc in 2023 compared with 2014 levels, EMSA said. This was driven mainly by the implementation of Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) in the Baltic and North seas, while the tightening of maximum sulphur levels in marine fuel in 2020 further contributed to the fall in SOx emissions. EMSA expects SOx emissions to drop further once a SECA is established in the Mediterranean Sea. And the northeast Atlantic countries may set up an emission control area by 2027. Biofuels are an "immediate, attractive and cost-effective solution" to cutting GHG emissions in the maritime sector, EMSA said. And synthetic and other drop-in fuels, which can be blended with fossil fuels, could help the shipping sector transition to lower emissions. But their costs could prove an obstacle because they are still "significantly higher" than for marine fossil fuels, the report said. Further electrification of ships could assist in decarbonising short-range waterborne transport, the report said. And the establishment of green shipping corridors — zero-emission maritime routes — could further encourage investment in sustainable fuels and supply chains, EMSA added. The EU emissions trading system-financed Innovation Fund has already supported more than 300 shipping projects, the report said, with funding to be deployed out to 2030. By Navneet Vyasan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canadian oil transferred at PAL not subject to tariffs


03/02/25
03/02/25

Canadian oil transferred at PAL not subject to tariffs

Houston, 3 February (Argus) — Shipments of Canadian crude that are transferred onto very large crude carriers (VLCCs) at the Pacific Area Lightering zone (PAL) en route to Asia-Pacific will not be subject to tariffs. PAL lies in the US' exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which provides the US with sovereign rights over natural resources within the zone but permits all countries the right to freely navigate the surface waters, including crude tankers, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. US president Donald Trump's 10pc tariffs on Canadian energy, set to begin on 4 February, could reroute crude exports out of Vancouver, British Columbia, the Aframax-restricted terminus of the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system. Since the first cargo from the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline project in May 2024, Canada has exported about 350,000 b/d from Vancouver through 31 January, according to Vortexa data. About 165,000 b/d went to the US west coast, and the other 185,000 b/d went to Asia-Pacific. The tariffs could price Canadian crude out of the US west coast and push more barrels across the Pacific. Shippers have shown a preference for direct voyages from Vancouver to Asia, sending about 115,000 b/d directly on Aframaxes and 70,000 b/d via VLCCs at PAL, Vortexa data show. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LNG freight market to stay oversupplied until mid-2026


31/01/25
31/01/25

LNG freight market to stay oversupplied until mid-2026

London, 31 January (Argus) — A rebalancing of the LNG shipping market beyond mid-2026 may hinge on the rate of vessel demolition this year and next, as growth in the global fleet of LNG carriers is on course to outpace the ramp-up in global liquefaction capacity by mid-2026. LNG shipping capacity continued to outgrow global exports in 2024. The ratio between global LNG exports and operational LNG carriers fell to a multi-year low in the third quarter last year as a result of low scrappage, limited output additions, and seasonally lower LNG output before winter ( see chart ). Total operational LNG carriers rose to 739 by the end of 2024, up by 9pc on the year, while LNG loadings in the fourth quarter only edged up by 1.4pc on the year. The ratio between LNG exports and operational LNG carriers is set to rebound from summer 2026, when three of four phases of state-run QatarEnergy's 32mn t/yr North Field East LNG capacity expansion are expected to come on line, and assuming all new additions can ramp up to designed capacity within three months of their respective start. In contrast, any delays would prolong the present oversupply of shipping capacity. But the capacity balance in the shipping market is unlikely to recover to 2021-23 levels, unless vessel demolition rates pick up to around seven vessels each quarter in 2025, up from eight vessels during the whole of 2024 ( see chart ). For market dynamics to be similar to those in 2021-23, this ratio would need to be even higher than at that time, given that newbuilds are typically bigger in capacity — meaning fewer vessels are needed to transport the same amount of LNG. Most newbuilds coming into operation in 2024 had a capacity of 174,000m³ or more, compared with the average for the global LNG fleet of 146,000m³ at the end of 2023, according to LNG importers association GIIGNL. Many market participants had expected demolition rates to accelerate in 2024, especially for the older fleet of steam turbine vessels. Tighter emissions rules from the International Maritime Organisation have put pressure on this part of the LNG fleet , and these smaller vessels have become increasingly incompatible with new and bigger loading berths. The steam turbine fleet has the highest rate of idling. There are roughly 40 steam turbine vessels available in the spot market at present, out of 270 vessels in total, according to shipbrokers and Kpler. In contrast, only around 20 two-stroke vessels are available, out of 370 operational vessels in total. Slow steam release The number of vessel demolitions fell short of expectations in 2024 because many shipowners still hoped to sell their steam vessels for conversion, and many expect demolition rates to pick up in 2025 given prevailing low freight rates. Steam turbine vessels are often bought for conversion into floating storage units (FSUs) or floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). Buying interest in 2024 was also driven partially by Dubai-based Nur Global Shipping, which acquired a number of ships that were later put under US sanctions for their apparent links with Russia's 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 export terminal. The scrap metal market has seen more supply than demand since early 2022, which has weighed on cost recovery for shipowners from old vessels and even delayed decisions for demolition. The monthly average delivered price for containerised ferrous scrap metal in India — a key area for vessel demolition — has fallen steadily, to $376/t in January from more than $600/t in early 2022, although the current price is still higher than the historical low of $255/t in spring 2020. But many continue to expect demolition rates to pick up in 2025-27. Shipbroker BRS expects 123 vessels to be scrapped in 2025-27 because almost 75 steam turbine vessels are due to finish their term charters in the coming two years. The current spot freight rate for steam turbine vessels of $2,000-3,000/d is way below their operational cost of around $17,000/d, which may incentivise shipowners to send them to be scrapped. The present supply of steam turbine vessels at 270 also remains far higher than total conversion demand, although demand for FSUs and FSRUs is expected to increase towards the end of the decade, when LNG supply is poised to increase. By Xiaoyi Deng Global LNG exports vs shipping capacity Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

РЖД насчитала 400 тысяч невостребованных вагонов


31/01/25
31/01/25

РЖД насчитала 400 тысяч невостребованных вагонов

Moscow, 31 January (Argus) — Объем подвижного состава, необходимый для вывоза грузов, заявленных к перевозке на февраль, составляет 970 тыс. вагонов, сообщил на брифинге заместитель генерального директора — начальник Центральной дирекции управления движением РЖД Михаил Глазков. Количество вагонов вычислено по Методике расчета потребного парка, согласованной с Союзом операторов железнодорожного транспорта. Всего на сети находится около 1,38 млн вагонов всех родов, это абсолютный исторический рекорд для нашей страны. Таким образом, в феврале уже порядка 400 тыс. единиц — это излишний парк, который занимает инфраструктуру, не имея задачи, — отметил Глазков. Вместе с тем каждые 50 тыс. вагонов на инфраструктуре общего пользования, не подкрепленные спросом, становятся причиной замедления участковой скорости примерно на 1—1,2 км/ч, по данным РЖД. А это, в свою очередь, замедляет оборот подвижного состава на сети, что требует для обеспечения вывоза того же объема грузов дополнительно 120—140 локомотивов и 600—650 локомотивных бригад. С октября мы начали тщательнее нормировать нахождение порожнего подвижного состава на рейсе. В результате на конец прошлого года нам удалось временно отставить от работы 75 тыс. вагонов. Это дало нам улучшение участковой скорости на 2 км/ч, увеличение погрузки на 2%, рост выгрузки на 1,7 тыс. вагонов в сутки, поднятие 458 брошенных груженых поездов. По состоянию на конец января средняя участковая скорость выросла относительно середины октября на 5 км/ч, до 39,3 км/ч, — сообщил Глазков. По его словам, в текущем году работа продолжается, в частности, 28 января госкомпания разослала железнодорожным администрациям пространства 1520 факсограмму, запрещающую с 2 февраля вход порожнего парка на сеть РЖД. Ограничение не распространяется на вагоны с российской припиской, однако оно касается иностранного парка, находящегося в аренде у российских компаний. Цель решения — максимизация эффективности использования отечественного подвижного состава для перевозок по сети РЖД. Срок запрета не определен, но мы уже видим, что в феврале его отмена нецелесообразна, — заявил Глазков. Константин Мозговой ___________________ Больше ценовой информации и аналитических материалов о рынке транспортировки навалочных, генеральных грузов и контейнеров — в ежемесячном отчете Argus Логистика сухих грузов . Подписаться на аналитический дайджест Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

W Australia iron ore exports plummet because of cyclone


28/01/25
28/01/25

W Australia iron ore exports plummet because of cyclone

London, 28 January (Argus) — Combined iron ore exports from four of the largest producers in Western Australia (WA) were disrupted by cyclone Sean in the week to 25 January and fell to the lowest since April 2023 when cyclone Ilsa disrupted operations. BHP, Fortescue, Roy Hill and Rio Tinto loaded vessels with a combined capacity of 11.16mn deadweight tonnes (dwt) over 19-25 January, down from 14.72mn dwt a week earlier. The deadweight volume is the maximum capacity of a vessel and typically overestimates shipments by about 5pc. Exports dropped to the lowest since the week to 15 April 2023 — when volumes plummeted to 10.28mn dwt because of cyclone Ilsa. Rio Tinto's shipments dropped to 3.05mn dwt from 4.46mn dwt and below its 12-month weekly average of 6.39mn dwt. BHP loadings fell to 4.55mn dwt from 5.33mn dwt — well below its 5.92mn dwt 12-month weekly average. Fortescue's loadings dropped to 2.97mn dwt from 3.44mn dwt a week earlier and below its 3.83mn dwt 12-month average. Roy Hill's exports collapsed to just 590,000dwt dwt from 1.49mn dwt during the week to 25 January, far above its 12-month weekly average of 1.19mn dwt. Spot freight rates in the Pacific dropped recently after a short rebound in early January as iron ore demand remains slow ahead of the lunar new year holiday. Capesize rates on the key west Australia to north China route for cargoes loading from the end of January fell to $5.85/t on 28 January from a recent high of $6.60/t on 13 January. Overall iron ore shipments from the four main west Australia ports — Hedland, Walcott, Dampier and Onslow — fell to 61.89mn dwt on 1-28 January from 66.06mn dwt a year earlier, provisional shipping data indicate. Shipments to China — where most cargoes are destined for — dropped to 50.85mn dwt from 52.88mn dwt a year earlier. Exports to Japan and South Korea slid to 7.50mn dwt from 9.56mn dwt. By Andrey Telegin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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