Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest Market News

Brazil’s January inflation lowest since 1994

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Electricity, Oil products
  • 11/02/25

Brazil's monthly inflation stood at 0.16pc in January, the lowest increase for the month since 1994 when the government enacted multiple measures to contain soaring inflation, according to government statistics agency IBGE.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed annually to 4.56pc from 4.83pc in December, heavily influenced by a 14.2pc tumble in power costs in January, compared with a 3.19pc drop in December.

Power costs decelerated January's inflation by 0.55 percentage points — the major individual contributor to the annual drop, according to IBGE — thanks to a R1.3bn ($224mn) federal discount in power tariffs that month, CPI's manager Fernando Goncalves said.

Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.25pc, decelerating from 7.69pc in December.

Beef costs increased annually by almost 21.2pc following a 20.8pc gain in the month prior, while soybean oil costs decelerated to 24.55pc over the last 12 months from 29.2pc in December.

Motor fuels prices rose by 11.35pc in January. Ethanol was responsible for the group's largest annual increase of 21.59pc, up from 17.58pc in the month prior. Gasoline and diesel prices also registered annual rises of 10.71pc and 2.66pc from 9.71pc and 0.66pc, respectively.

Still, diesel prices remained at a 0.97pc monthly increase from December, while ethanol costs contracted by 1.82pc from 1.92pc and gasoline prices increased by 0.61pc from 0.54pc.

Fuel prices are likely to keep increasing in February, as states increased the VAT-like ICMS tax on fuels and state-controlled Petrobras increased wholesale diesel prices by 6.3pc, both effective as of 1 February.

Transportation costs rose by 1.3pc in January over the year, following a 0.67pc gain in December. Flight tickets were the most responsible for the increase, with a 10.42pc monthly gain from a 22.2pc contraction in December.

Brazil's central bank is targeting CPI of 3pc with a margin of 1.5 percentage point above or below.

The bank raised its target rate to 13.25pc in January after it failed to maintain Brazil's headline inflation under the ceiling of 4.5pc for 2024. Further increases are expected in the coming months, the bank said.

The central bank has recently changed the way it tracks the inflation goal. Instead of tracking inflation on a calendar year basis, it will now monitor the goal on a 12-month basis.

In 1994, Brazil enacted its Plano Real, a series of measures to stabilize the economy and detain soaring inflation, which had hit an annual 916pc by the end of that year. One of the measures was to change its currency to the real from the cruzeiro real.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

21/03/25

Low snowpack, rain may lift Italian summer power prices

Low snowpack, rain may lift Italian summer power prices

London, 21 March (Argus) — Low snowpack and hydro reserves in Italy may increase the call on gas-fired power plants this summer, likely supporting power prices in days when renewable generation is weakest. Hydro generation from run-of-river installations, pumped-storage plants and hydroelectric reserves accounted for almost 20pc of the power mix on average over 2020-24 in the third quarter — the second-highest share after the second quarter at 22.2pc — compared with gas-fired generation covering 45pc. But prevailing conditions suggest that without unusually wet weather this summer, Italian rivers could be drier than normal, limiting scope for hydro output and potentially opening more space for gas in the power mix, driving up electricity prices. Snow water equivalent — or the estimated water content of snow — moved back to a deficit to last year's levels on 23 February after showing signs of improvement over the first three weeks of the month, according to Italian meteorological association Cima. Snowpack was at a deficit of 57pc to the 2011-23 average as of 8 March, narrowing slightly compared with a 58pc deficit around the same time in February. The deficit in the Po basin, which accounts for almost half of Italy's snow water resource, is currently at a 44pc deficit to the seasonal norm, Cima data show. In the Apennines, the Tiber basin is at a 95pc deficit to the long-term average, marking the worst balance of the last 13 years. And hydro reserves have been at a consistent deficit to last year since January and moved to a deficit to the five-year norm in the middle of February. Rainfall in Malpensa and Paganella, in the north of the country, was at an average deficit of almost 2 mm/d and 1.6 mm/d, respectively, to the seasonal norm over November and December last year. While precipitation picked up in January and moved to a surplus to the norm of 1.9 mm/d in Malpensa and 1.4 mm/d in Paganella, minimum temperatures were 1.6°C above the long-term average in Milan, reducing snow accumulation. The latest data show that hydro reserves have picked up for the first time this year in week 11, reaching 2.1TWh and narrowing their deficit to the 2020-24 average to 0.8pc compared with 5.2pc a week earlier. Still, they remain 6.6pc below last year, with the deficit standing even wider at 9.1pc, when compared with the 2015-24 average. Looking ahead, forecasts indicate that minimum temperatures in Milan will hold around 2°C above the 10-year norm until the end of April, possibly leading some snowmelt to support run-of-river generation early in the second quarter, when power demand is typically at its lowest. But this would also leave less snow to melt later in the summer, when cooling demand peaks and drives up overall demand for electricity. While solar capacity increased steadily by over 500MW a month last year, the share of the power mix covered by solar output in the third quarter of 2024 remained almost unchanged from the same period in 2023. Assuming a similar monthly growth in photovoltaic (PV) capacity this year, the solar load factor is expected to increase by 1.8 percentage points to 17.8pc in the third quarter of 2025 on the year. This means that even if solar capacity and output continue growing, it may not be enough to offset a lack of hydro generation in the third quarter of this year, and thermal generation may still need to cover a significant amount of residual demand. The third quarter of 2025 has averaged €135.85/MWh ($146.83/MWh) so far this quarter, well above an average €91.60/MWh seen over the same period last year. Clean spark spreads for 55pc-efficient gas-fired units for the third quarter of 2025 have averaged around €19.60/MWh since the start of the year, compared with an average of €15.50/MWh over the same time last year. As solar and wind capacity is set to increase over the coming years to reach a national target of 110GW by 2030, renewable output will cover an increasing share of Italian electricity demand — estimated to reach 335TWh in 2028. Thermal plants may become less economically viable and will likely be decommissioned unless they are kept operating through ancillary services. But turning on gas-fired plants from cold and with a stop-start operation would lead to exaggerated costs and higher maintenance prices, Argus heard on the sidelines of the KEY25 Energy Transition Expo in Rimini earlier this month. This could lead to electricity prices spiking in periods of scarce hydro availability, as hydro-run-of river is Italy's largest single source of renewable generation, accounting for 17pc of the power mix last year compared with less than 5pc of hydro-pumped storage and reservoirs. By Ilenia Reale Italian hydro stocks TWh Gas and hydro output, hydro reserves GW, TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Shell ends direct bitumen sales to some German buyers


21/03/25
21/03/25

Shell ends direct bitumen sales to some German buyers

London, 21 March (Argus) — Shell will stop directly supplying bitumen to some of its low-volume customers in Germany, with effect from 1 April. Shell told customers it has restructured its bitumen distribution channels and can no longer directly distribute to certain customers, according to an email from Shell's bitumen supply unit in Germany seen by Argus . It recommended they instead buy from German bitumen trading and supply firm Bitumina Handel. Neither Shell Germany nor Bitumina Handel have commented, but Argus understands the oil major, which is one of Europe's leading refinery bitumen producers, has concluded a deal with Bitumina to take over supply to its affected customers. The move is part of a wider switch by Shell to focus more on trading bitumen cargoes and less on directly supplying truck volumes to inland customers. The company ended a long-term throughput and supply arrangement into the French market through the Nantes and Bayonne terminals on the French Atlantic coast. Spain's Repsol and Moeve have taken over those operations . Shell last year ceased its South African bitumen retail and truck supply operations . Shell's European bitumen production is at its 187,000 b/d Godorf refinery in western Germany and at its 447,000 b/d Pernis refinery in Rotterdam. The firm recently stopped processing crude at the 147,000 b/d Wesseling section of its 334,000 b/d Rhineland refinery complex. The effect of that on bitumen production at Godorf, the other section of Rhineland, is unclear. By Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Phillips 66 weighs Louisiana refinery expansion


20/03/25
20/03/25

Phillips 66 weighs Louisiana refinery expansion

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — US independent refiner Phillips 66 is seeking state tax incentives for a possible expansion of its 264,000 b/d refinery in Lake Charles, Louisiana. The expansion would increase production capacity and improve operational efficiency through upgrades and new specialized equipment, according to a summary of the project posted by the Louisiana Department of Economic Development. The agency, which administers state incentives, said that the Phillips 66 project is in review. Phillips 66 said today that it does not typically comment on refinery operations, regulatory filings or commercial activities. According to the Louisiana Department of Economic Development posting, the $99mn upgrade would include adding a 5MW steam turbine power generator, a boiler feedwater chemical system, LCR kerosene product rundown system upgrades, a reactor, a naptha fractionator, and other pieces of equipment. The budget includes $40mn for machinery and $59mn for labor and engineering. The project is estimated to be completed at the end of 2027. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit


20/03/25
20/03/25

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — The first towboat arrived at St Paul, Minnesota, today, marking the start of the 2025 navigation season on the upper Mississippi River, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Neil N. Diehl passed through Lock 2 at Hastings, Minnesota, with nine barges, crossing into St Paul on 19 March. Tows reaching St Paul signify the unofficial start of the navigation season, as St Paul is the last port to open on the Mississippi River after winter ice thaws each year. This is considered an average start time for the navigation season, which typically opens the third week of March. The first tow to reach St Paul in 2024 arrived on 17 March. The Corps released the final Lake Pepin ice measurements of 17in on 12 March and was unable to take new measurements this week since the ice had melted significantly. Lake Pepin measurements help determine when the ice will be thin enough for barges to transit up river. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Escoamento de soja causa fila de caminhões em Rondônia


20/03/25
20/03/25

Escoamento de soja causa fila de caminhões em Rondônia

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — O tempo de espera para embarque da safra de soja 2024-25 no porto de Porto Velho, em Rondônia, chegou a seis dias nesta semana, de acordo com a Associação dos Produtores de Soja do estado (Aprosoja-RO). A falta de infraestrutura portuária e de armazenagem nas fazendas, aliada ao pico da colheita da oleaginosa nas últimas semanas, aumentou a fila de caminhões para o escoamento das cargas no porto de Porto Velho. "Tivemos uma fila de até 1.200 caminhões no pátio de triagem de Porto Velho, por onde é escoada toda a produção do estado e da região noroeste de Mato Grosso", disse o diretor administrativo da Aprosoja-RO, Marcelo Lucas. As cargas embarcadas seguem pelo Rio Madeira até o porto de Santarém, no Pará, de onde é exportada. A colheita de soja 2024-25 em Rondônia deve atingir 2,4 milhões de toneladas (t), um aumento de 7pc em relação ao ciclo anterior, de acordo com a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). Rondônia não teve dificuldades no escoamento de soja nessa magnitude em anos anteriores, mas, por conta do pico de colheita na safra deste ciclo, há um volume maior a ser transportado em um menor espaço de tempo, segundo a Aprosoja-RO. A Aprosoja-RO também disse que os gargalos logísticos têm causado prejuízos aos produtores, que não conseguem escoar a colheita de suas propriedades. As cargas que conseguem ser embarcadas acabam degradadas por conta das longas tempos de esperas para descarga. Os produtores também estão absorvendo os custos de manter caminhões estacionados em armazéns e portos, elevando os preços do frete de grãos rodoviário a níveis acima do que é tradicionalmente praticado na região, disse a Aprosoja-RO. Na semana encerrada em 13 de março, o frete rodoviário de grãos no corredor Sapezal-Porto Velho atingiu R$235/t, ante R$185/t no mesmo período em 2024. A entidade disse que está trabalhando com o governo do estado para rever a concessão do porto de Porto Velho, permitindo que outras empresas operem. A Aprosoja-RO recebeu relatos de que há espaços ociosos que poderiam estar atendendo aos produtores. O porto de Porto Velho é administrado pela Sociedade de Portos e Hidrovias de Rondônia (Soph), que informou que não administra as filas externas e não tem autoridade na área retroportuária de caminhões aguardando liberação para triagem nos terminais. Por Bruno Castro Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more