James: Hello and welcome to the Argus Chemicals Conversation Podcast. This is the second episode in our K-Show Plastics Preview series.
Today, we’ll be exploring the latest market developments in Southeast Asia and taking a closer look at how Argus assesses prices in the region.
I’m your host, James Elliott, and I’m joined by two colleagues from our Singapore office: Yee Ying Ang, Senior Reporter for Polymers in Southeast Asia, and Timo Tumuscheit, Vice President of Business Development for Chemicals in Asia and the Middle East.
Yee Ying, Timo — great to have you both here.
Yee Ying: Thanks, James. Glad to be part of the conversation.
Timo: Likewise — looking forward to the discussion.
James: Today, we’re diving into how Argus assesses prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) in Southeast Asia. But first, let’s start with a quick market update.
Yee Ying, what’s the current situation in the region?
Yee Ying: We’re heading into the peak manufacturing season, with converters preparing for year-end holidays and Lunar New Year. But demand is softer this year, partly due to 19–20% US tariffs on key
Southeast Asian exporters like Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia—though these rates are still lower than those faced by India, Brazil, and South Africa.
There’s a twist, though: Southeast Asian governments have proposed zero tariffs on most US imports, which could pave the way for more US-origin PE to enter the region, though formal details are still pending.
US cargoes to Southeast Asia are already up by 20% from last year, as US producers shift focus away from China. They’ve also started offering year-end volumes earlier than usual. With new southeast Asian capacities and US cargoes, buyers feel assured of supply.
Prices for PE and PP remain weak, but Southeast Asia continues to be a preferred export market thanks to stronger netbacks compared to other Asian regions.
James: Thanks, Yee Ying. That’s both insightful and clearly a challenging environment.
So let’s talk methodology — why is it so critical in price assessments?
Yee Ying: Great question. At Argus, our methodologies and prices are designed to reflect actual market activity. We base our price assessments on actual spot deals, bids and offers, buying and selling ideas. The Argus price captures the range where a product has trader or could have traded based on the best available market data.
Timo: Exactly. And when the market is quiet or liquidity is low, Argus doesn’t speculate. We apply a judgment-based approach, considering buying and selling ideas to ensure our price assessments remain representative and reliable – even in thinly traded conditions.
James: So it’s a mix of actual deals and market discussions?
Timo: Yes, we capture transactions as possible and listen closely to what market participants are saying—like their buying and selling ideas—especially when liquidity is low.
James: Let’s zoom in on Southeast Asia. What’s unique about Argus’ approach in this region?
Yee Ying: For Southeast Asia, we cover CFR—Cost and Freight—spot assessments for deliveries to major ports in Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines.
Timo: We also split assessments into dutiable and duty-free cargoes—duty-free typically comes from ASEAN origins, while dutiable includes imports from the Middle East and India. Additionally, we provide a dedicated assessment for the Vietnam market.
James: Interesting. What about cargo sizes and delivery windows?
Timo: We consider cargo sizes between 100 and 500 tonnes, with delivery windows ranging from 5 to 35 days forward from the assessment date.
James: Let’s talk PP. What grades does Argus focus on, and how are they assessed?
Yee Ying: We assess PP raffia and PP block copolymer grades, with CFR Southeast Asia dutiable and duty-free assessments, plus a CFR Vietnam assessment.
James: Now onto PE – we assess a wider range of grades here right?
Yee Ying: Yes. For PE we assess the LDPE film , LLDPE film, HDPE film and HDPE blow moulding grade as well as the metallocene LLDPE grades.
James: Let’s wrap up with transparency. How does Argus ensure data integrity?
Yee Ying: We verify the information we gather with multiple parties – across converters, traders and producers to ensure accuracy. Our numbers are also checked and audited to maintain reliability.
Timo: We also publish detailed commentaries that explain trades and market dynamics, highlighting deals and offers from various origins to keep our readers informed.
James: So it’s not just about publishing prices—it’s about enabling smarter decisions?
Timo: Exactly. Transparency is the foundation of market confidence.
James: That’s a wrap on today’s episode. Yee Ying, Timo—thank you both for the insights. If you would like to meet with the Argus team at K-show, please reach out to: ____
Join us for the next episode of the K-show Plastics Preview by Argus Chemicals Conversations during which we’ll be discussing XXX…
Goodbye.
