CFTC relaxes proposed position limits on energy

  • : Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 16/12/05

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today proposed establishing position limits for key contracts for crude, diesel, gasoline and natural gas that are significantly looser than previously contemplated.

But the agency is considering taking a more mixed approach to metals, relaxing restrictions for gold and silver contracts, while adopting tougher limits for platinum, palladium and copper.

Unveiling its surprise, 910-page proposal, the CFTC announced it is considering allowing a company to hold far more contracts in energy commodities before hitting the position limits than in an earlier proposal released in 2013. The revised limits take into account new data on the "deliverable supply" of crude, gasoline, diesel and gasoline in the market that could fulfill the specifications of core NYMEX energy contracts.

The revised position limit for RBOB gasoline, for example, would increase nearly seven-fold to 6,800 contracts for a given spot month while the position limit for light sweet crude would more than triple to 10,400 contracts. The proposal would set a 2,000 contract limit for natural gas that was twice as high as before, while nearly tripling the position limits for ultra-low sulfur diesel to 2,900 contracts.

The proposed limits on energy commodities, set at 25pc of what exchanges say is the deliverable supply in the market, are designed to help prevent manipulative practices such as "corners and squeezes" in energy markets, while also promoting market liquidity. The proposed rule maintains an exemption from the position limits for commercial businesses using energy contracts to hedge against price risks.

The decision to re-propose the position limit rule comes as the agency is poised to flip to Republican control when president-elect Donald Trump takes office.

CFTC chairman Timothy Massad today said he does not want to adopt the regulations, only to then have the agency under new leadership choose not to implement or defend them.

"Our markets and the many end-users and consumers who rely on them are served best by having reasonable and predictable regulation," Massad said. "Uncertainty and inconsistency from one year to the next are not helpful."

The CFTC for the past six years has tried to adopt the position limits to fulfill a mandate in the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul law, which ordered the agency to set position limits to guard against "excessive" speculation in energy commodities within 180 days. But a court threw out its first attempt at the rule in 2012, and the agency has been struggling since that time to craft a replacement.

The CFTC today re-proposed its definition of what qualifies as a "bona fide" hedging position that would be exempt from the position limits, such as positions established in good faith prior to the effective date of the eventual regulations. The agency also offered more details on a process for exchanges to recognize exemptions to the position limits rule.

Republican CFTC member Christopher Giancarlo, who could become the next chairman of the agency, has criticized past versions of the position limits rule and pushed the agency to propose them again. Doing so would provide the public a chance to comment on the revised deliverable supply data and other changes, he said. But he offered tentative support for the new rule.

"I feel comfortable that the proposal before us provides the basis for the implementation of a final position limits rule that I could support," Giancarlo said.

Massad today acknowledged the revised position limits might still draw criticism and requests to expand position limits exemptions so they encompass "practically any activity with a business purpose." But Massad said he felt the proposal was balanced and achieved the objectives in Dodd-Frank.

For metals, the proposal would allow traders to hold up to 6,000 contracts in the spot month for gold and 3,000 for silver, twice as many as the earlier proposal. The spot month position limit for platinum would drop to 100 contracts, from 500. The limits for palladium and copper would drop slightly to 500 and 1,000 contracts, respectively.

The CFTC plans to take comment on the new proposal for 60 days after it is published in the Federal Register, meaning the regulation could not be finalized until well into 2017.


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24/05/01

US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand

US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand

New York, 1 May (Argus) — US natural gas producers and pipelines have pivoted almost in unison this year to talking up what they see as one of the strongest bullish cases for gas this decade: surging electricity demand from yet-to-be-built data centers to power artificial intelligence software. EQT, the largest US gas producer by volume, in an investor presentation last week called growing data center demand the "cornerstone" to the "natural gas bull case." Combining its own research with data from the US Energy Information Administration, the gas giant forecast an increase in gas demand of 10 Bcf/d (283mn m3/d) by 2030 to generate electricity, mostly to run data centers. Its more aggressive data center build-out scenario envisions a whopping 18 Bcf/d increase in gas demand through 2030. Total US gas production is currently about 100 Bcf/d. Kinder Morgan, one of the largest US gas pipeline operators, this month forecast 20pc of US power being gobbled up by data centers in 2030, up from a 2.5pc share in 2022. Cobbling together projections from several consultancies and financial advisories, the company said the electricity needed to run artificial intelligence software alone will comprise 15pc of US power demand by 2030. If just 40pc of that demand is met by gas, that would represent an increase in gas demand of 7-10 Bcf/d, it said. This is roughly in line with the high end of US bank Tudor Pickering Holt's forecast for gas demand to power data centers through 2030 (1.3-8.5 Bcf/d) and well above Goldman Sachs' and consultancy Enverus' projections of 3.3 Bcf/d and 2 Bcf/d, respectively. New tech, old problems Separating the wide ranges of these projections is the highly speculative nature of forecasting demand years into the future for competing energy sources to power next-generation technology. But the major upside and downside risks, analysts say, concern the more humdrum challenges of permitting and building out energy infrastructure. Goldman Sachs expects 28GW, or 60pc, of the generation capacity needed to power new data centers through 2030 will come from natural gas — 9GW from combined cycle gas turbines and 19GW from gas peaker plants. But with an average lag of four years from the time a gas transmission project is announced to the time it enters service, to say nothing of the high probability of litigation being brought by environmentalists and landowners, construction and permitting timelines are "the most top of mind constraint for natural gas," the bank said. Indeed, litigation and opposition from state regulators have ultimately led developers to call off several interstate pipeline projects in the eastern US in recent years. The exception to the rule, Equitrans' 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline is moving forward only because congressional action allowed it to bypass federal permitting hurdles. This is a particular problem for the gas industry's hopes of exploiting the data center boom, as a large share of future data centers are slated to be built in the southeast US, far from the major US gas fields. New data centers representing 2 Bcf/d of gas demand in Georgia probably requires a new pipeline into the southeast, FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said. Southeast premium A significant data-center buildout in the southeast without new pipelines could put upward pressure on regional gas prices, McLean said. This could exacerbate the effects of what has become perhaps the most prominent bullish case for US gas: a massive build-out of LNG export terminals along the US Gulf coast. With new export terminals pulling increasing volumes of gas south along the Transcontinental gas pipeline to super-chill and ship overseas in the coming years, the build-out in data centers will likely produce "an even bigger deficit in that southeast (gas) market," EQT chief financial officer Jeremy Knop told investors last week. "We think that market really, in time, becomes the most premium market in the country," he said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tankers can take TMX crude mid-May: Trans Mountain


24/05/01
24/05/01

Tankers can take TMX crude mid-May: Trans Mountain

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Canada’s TMX pipeline ready to move crude: Update


24/04/30
24/04/30

Canada’s TMX pipeline ready to move crude: Update

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New US rule may let some shippers swap railroads


24/04/30
24/04/30

New US rule may let some shippers swap railroads

Washington, 30 April (Argus) — US rail regulators today issued a final rule designed to help customers switch railroads in cases of poor rail service, but it is already drawing mixed reviews. Reciprocal switching, which allows freight shippers or receivers captive to a single railroad to access to an alternate carrier, has been allowed under US Surface Transportation Board (STB) rules. But shippers had not used existing STB rules to petition for reciprocal switching in 35 years, prompting regulators to revise rules to encourage shippers to pursue switching while helping resolve service problems. "The rule adopted today has broken new ground in the effort to provide competitive options in an extraordinarily consolidated rail industry," said outgoing STB chairman Martin Oberman. The five-person board unanimously approved a rule that would allow the board to order a reciprocal switching agreement if a facility's rail service falls below specified levels. Orders would be for 3-5 years. "Given the repeated episodes of severe service deterioration in recent years, and the continuing impediments to robust and consistent rail service despite the recent improvements accomplished by Class I carriers, the board has chosen to focus on making reciprocal switching available to shippers who have suffered service problems over an extended period of time," Oberman said today. STB commissioner Robert Primus voted to approve the rule, but also said it did not go far enough. The rule adopted today is "unlikely to accomplish what the board set out to do" since it does not cover freight moving under contract, he said. "I am voting for the final rule because something is better than nothing," Primus said. But he said the rule also does nothing to address competition in the rail industry. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) is reviewing the 154-page final rule, but carriers have been historically opposed to reciprocal switching proposals. "Railroads have been clear about the risks of expanded switching and the resulting slippery slope toward unjustified market intervention," AAR said. But the trade group was pleased that STB rejected "previous proposals that amounted to open access," which is a broad term for proposals that call for railroads to allow other carriers to operate over their tracks. The American Short Line and Regional Railroad Association declined to comment but has indicated it does not expect the rule to have an appreciable impact on shortline traffic, service or operations. Today's rule has drawn mixed reactions from some shipper groups. The National Industrial Transportation League (NITL), which filed its own reciprocal switching proposal in 2011, said it was encouraged by the collection of service metrics required under the rule. But "it is disheartened by its narrow scope as it does not appear to apply to the vast majority of freight rail traffic that moves under contracts or is subject to commodity exemptions," said NITL executive director Nancy O'Liddy, noting it was a departure from the group's original petition which sought switching as a way to facilitate railroad economic competitiveness. The Chlorine Institute said, in its initial analysis, that it does not "see significant benefit for our shipper members since it excludes contract traffic which covers the vast majority of chlorine and other relevant chemical shipments." By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

First TMX cargo booked on Aframax to China


24/04/30
24/04/30

First TMX cargo booked on Aframax to China

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