Viewpoint: US butane demand looks poised to drop

: LPG
16/12/30

US butane demand is poised to slow in February 2017 as refiners take stock of inventories, with the potential to switch to summer-grade gasoline well ahead of the 15 March RVP shift.

Refiners began producing winter grade gasoline earlier in 2016 following an oversupply of summer grade. Butane/butylene supplied to end users rose in September, the latest month available from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), to 196,000 b/d, up from 120,000 b/d supplied in August.

The resulting demand in butane for blending narrowed its discount to RBOB during the latter half of the year. Butane surged in the second half of 2016, rising to a two-year high of 91.75¢/USG on 8 December, supported by strong winter blend buying.

Demand remained strong throughout the fourth quarter, with refinery run rates rising from 85.3pc in October to 89.2pc in November and at 90.4pc of capacity during the first week of December, according to the EIA. As blending increased, butane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose from an average of 52.8pc of RBOB in November to an average 58.2pc of RBOB during the first half of December.

Operational issues on the Gulf coast caused a spike in isobutane prices in December, which hit a two-year high of 111¢/USG on 6 December as an alkylate unit restarted. Gains in isobutane also lent support to butane.

Steep gains in December butane left the blendstock backwardated into January, and prices are expected to fall further in February as blending slows ahead of the seasonal RVP switch.

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26/03/31

Western Australia's LNG projects restart production

Sydney, 31 March (Argus) — Western Australia's (WA) off line LNG projects are restarting some domestic gas production, while the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) is assessing damage from category 4 tropical cyclone Narelle, which passed through the region late last week. The ports of Dampier and Ashburton have been checked over, with structural damage to Dampier's general cargo import facilities, rendering the wharf inoperable, PPA said on 31 March. The bulk liquids terminal is operable, PPA said, meaning fuel imports for the region's major iron ore mines is unaffected. Ashburton port has also suffered damage to its general cargo wharf and this remains closed, with engineering teams looking over the facilities during the next few days. The port of Varanus Island — a central gathering and processing hub for oil, gas and condensate supplied by nearby fields, including those operated by Australian independent Santos — has reopened with no impacts to operations, PPA said. LNG projects recovering The region's affected LNG projects are slowly returning to production after Narelle took two major plants, the 14.3mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) and 8.9mn t/yr Wheatstone terminals, off line late last week . NWS' Karratha gas plant will be producing at 300 TJ/d and Wheatstone at 20 TJ/d on 1 April, indicating that some volumes are returning on line, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator's WA gas bulletin board, which measures domestic flows. Wheatstone may take weeks to return to full capacity, Chevron has said, while it returned one train at the 15.6mn t/yr Gorgon LNG terminal, which was taken off line during the cyclone to service on 29 March. The disruption to supply comes during an already tight supply balance in the Pacific basin, with Qatar's 64.2mn t/yr Ras Laffan terminal pausing production on 2 March due to the US-Iran war. Domestic gas flows fell from 1,202 TJ/d on 24 March to 558 TJ/d on 29 March due to Narelle's impacts, forcing alumina refineries run by US producer Alcoa to slash output temporarily . By Tom Major Argus LNG prices ($/mn Btu) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Red Sea AWRP up after Houthi attack on Israel

26/03/30

Red Sea AWRP up after Houthi attack on Israel

London, 30 March (Argus) — Additional war risk premium (AWRP) rates in the Red Sea have risen after the Yemen-based militant Houthis attacked Israel at the weekend, an insurance broker told Argus . The Red Sea AWRP inched up to 0.65-0.75pc of hull and machinery value, from around 0.6pc — although 25–50pc of this may be refunded as a no-claims bonus, the broker said. Some insurers may still offer around 0.6pc, according to brokers, but such offers are increasingly rare. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militants launched missiles at Israel on Saturday, 28 March, in their first attack since the war in the Mideast Gulf began. A source familiar with regional AWRPs told Argus today that the Houthis "have been fundamentally weakened," and "do not have the capability they had two years ago". "But the Houthis are resilient and will probably attempt to strike a vessel," the source said. "Their threat is capped, however, given the US has so much firepower in the region." The Houthis may attempt to charge vessel operators for safe transit, the source said, "having done this previously and in a similar way to Iran ". Red Sea rates remain below the Mideast Gulf level, where AWRP is around 1pc of hull and machinery value for a vessel stuck west of Hormuz, insurers told Argus . The rate to leave the Gulf is considerably higher. Hormuz passage becomes significantly more expensive For vessels passing the strait of Hormuz, AWRP is around 5.0–7.5pc of hull and machinery value and can reach as high as 10pc, according to brokers. In addition, and before obtaining AWRP coverage, shipowners must confirm to insurers they have no links to the US or Israel and must present approval granted by Iranian authorities. Cargo war risk premiums are also substantial, at around 10–20pc of a cargo's value, insurance brokers said. Based on these rates, the AWRP payment could amount to as much as $13.4mn for a five-year-old very large crude carrier (VLCC) valued at around $134mn, according to shipbroker Xclusiv. Any deal would also require cargo insurance, which for a full 300,000t cargo of Dubai crude would add $52mn, implying a combined war risk insurance bill of about $65mn — comparable to the price of a 10-year-old Aframax tanker, which is around $61.5mn, according to Xclusiv. By Andrey Telegin and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's bioLPG hits glycerin barrier

26/03/27

Brazil's bioLPG hits glycerin barrier

Sao Paulo, 27 March (Argus) — The use of glycerin to produce renewable LPG, known as bioLPG, could reshape how it and other biodiesel byproducts are viewed in Brazil, but structural constraints around feedstock quality and cost are likely to limit its attractiveness in the near term. Energy research company Epe outlined bioLPG's potential role in a fact sheet published in January, presenting it as chemically identical to LPG and fully compatible with existing infrastructure. Because it is a drop-in fuel, bioLPG could support decarbonization in segments such as cooking and small-scale industry without requiring changes to equipment or distribution systems. But Epe added that domestic production remains incipient and highly dependent on how bioLPG is positioned within existing biofuel chains. BioLPG is not a primary output in most of Epe's production pathways, but a co-product of larger, capital-intensive processes such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel. Emerging alternatives, such as the conversion of glycerin in the biodiesel stream, could expand supply while boosting biomass streams in Brazil. Glycerin is a by-product of biodiesel production. It is widely used in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and food applications because of its stability and ability to hold water. But glycerin produced in Brazilian biodiesel plants is mostly crude and would require additional refining before it could be used as feedstock for bioLPG. This extra processing step adds cost and complexity, especially in a market where bioLPG would still need to compete with LPG and other fuels. Large Brazilian biodiesel producers are not investing in glycerin refining, meaning they cannot supply the product needed by the bioLPG market, they told Argus . These plants say that crude glycerin is important to their revenue, but it is mostly destined for export and they have no plans to invest in expanding the market domestically. Brazil produced 8.65mn t (176,790 b/d) of biodiesel in 2025, according to oil regulator ANP. With a 10pc glycerin yield, crude glycerin production is estimated at about 865,000t for the year. Combined exports of crude and refined glycerin totaled 821,245t in 2025, with China, India and Russia standing out as the main destinations. Refined glycerin represented 145,00t of that total. Industries would need to pay a premium to international prices for those glycerin volumes to stay in Brazil. Brazilian calculated crude glycerin prices stand at $770-780/t fob Santos, according to Argus ' biweekly assessment published on 19 March. Refined glycerin at the port is trading between $1,250-1,270/t. These dynamics underline the gap between the technical promise of glycerin-based bioLPG and current market behavior. While glycerin is abundant, its existing export outlet provides liquidity and price discovery that domestic bioLPG projects would struggle to match without policy support or long-term offtake agreements. Redirecting glycerin toward bioLPG production would require domestic buyers to compete with international bidders while also absorbing the cost of refining. BioLPG is expected to expand on a larger scale at first by leveraging existing renewable diesel, SAF or other processes that can handle renewable feedstocks and produce bioLPG as a co-product. Epe itself points to incentives, regulatory clarity and cost reductions as prerequisites for accelerating domestic bioLPG supply. Until those conditions are met, glycerin-to-bioLPG is likely to remain a medium-term option rather than a near-term lever for improving biodiesel margins. By Rebecca Gompertz and Natalia Dalle Cort Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran turns back 3 ships trying to transit Hormuz: IRGC

26/03/27

Iran turns back 3 ships trying to transit Hormuz: IRGC

London, 27 March (Argus) — Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said today that its navy has turned back three container ships attempting to pass through the strait of Hormuz. The IRGC said the ships of "different nationalities" tried to move into a designated corridor for licensed traffic, but were warned off and forced to withdraw. It said the strait is "closed" and that any movement in the waterway will face "severe action". The IRGC also declared that the movement of any ship sailing to or from ports of countries allied with what it calls its "Zionist-American enemies" — to any destination and from any corridor — is prohibited. The statement follows Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi's comments on state TV on 25 March , when he said the strait remains open except to Iran's "enemies". Araqchi said Iran has allowed passage for vessels from "friendly countries, including China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan". By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Butane widens premium to propane

26/03/26

Butane widens premium to propane

Houston, 26 March (Argus) — The premium of US butane at Mont Belvieu, Texas, to propane has widened because export demand for butane-heavy loads has grown because the US-Israel war on Iran. March EPC butane averaged a $32.10/t premium to March EPC propane from 2-25 March, a sharp increase from the $6.80/t average during the same time a year earlier. In-well March EPC butane has inflated to unseasonal values since the start of the war on 28 February, with the heavy feedstock rising by 13.7pc to an average of $480/t from 2-25 March, compared with $422.20/t a year earlier, as international demand for butane-heavy cargoes grew to replace split cargoes from the Middle East, which have been choked off by Iran's effective closure of the strait of Hormuz. The lack of shipments from the Mideast Gulf has created a supply crisis in India, which relies heavily on imports to meet its requirements for cooking fuels. India gets nearly 90pc of its LPG from the Mideast Gulf , and to mitigate the supply shock, has turned to other countries for imports, including the US . India is set to receive around 432,000t of LPG from the US in March, the highest volume ever recorded, predictive volumes from Kpler indicate. While the war tightens LPG supplies out of the Middle East, leading to higher delivered propane prices on the Argus Far East Index (AFEI), US propane — which trends directionally with international markets — has had less on chronic oversupply. US propane stocks increased by 478,000 bl to 72.9mn bl in the week ending 20 March, leaving inventories 59pc above the five-year average. March EPC propane remains well below year earlier levels, averaging $385/t from 2-25 March, a 14.5pc decline from $450.14/t a year earlier. Butane's premium to propane could continue to grow against a backdrop of political uncertainty in the Middle East. If the military conflict there ends, flows could recover, demand for butane-heavy loads from the US would retreat and butane's premium to propane could revert to seasonal norms. Butane typically weakens during the summer-grade gasoline blending season, which uses less of it. By Giovann Rosales Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US butane demand looks poised to drop

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