China snaps up Indonesian coal cargoes
The most liquid Indonesian market, the GAR 4,200 kcal/kg (NAR 3,800), stayed on course for a mild recovery this week as bid and trade levels firmed amid tightening supply and some Chinese short covering.
Several cargoes of Indonesian coal of varying qualities were sold to China. One index-relevant October loading GAR 4,200 kcal/kg geared supramax was sold at $38/t, while another cross-month geared vessel was bid at $38/t in response to a slightly higher offer.
A September loading Panamax of GAR 4,200 kcal/kg, which does not qualify for the index, sold to China at $38.75/t, while a cross-month September-October loading Panamax was bid at $38.75/t in response to a marginally higher offer.
At least one large Indonesian producer of GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal said they had no cargoes left to offer into the seaborne market this year because they needed to meet their domestic market obligation (DMO). They are among a few producers who are now obliged to sell coal to Indonesia's state-run utility PLN in order to meet their DMO deadline by the end of this year.
On the lower calorific value GAR 3,800 kcal/kg market, an Indonesian producer sold two Panamaxes to China today at $33/t each. Both will load around end-September.
Two ultra-low sulphur GAR 3,400 (NAR 3,000) geared vessels also sold today for loading out of Sumatra. One September loader with 0.1pc sulphur sold at $23/t while another for 1-10 October loading with 0.3pc sulphur went to a southeast Asian buyer at a higher price of $25.35/t.
The direction of the GAR 5,000 (NAR 4,700) was less clear, with offers for September Panamaxes at $54-55/t, and unconfirmed reports of GAR 5,100 September 1.2pc sulphur coal changing hands at $54.50-55/t. And a GAR 4,800 kcal/kg September loading Panamax was reportedly offered as low as $48/t.
The Indonesian ICI 4 paper market for GAR 4,200 kcal/kg was quiet today, although at least one broker said he saw bid-offer spreads firming in line with sentiment on the physical market. A trader reported one September bid at $39.25/t for 5,000t compared with an offer at $40.25, and an October bid at $39.50/t for 5,000t against an offer of $40.25/t.
In the Chinese futures market, the September contract on the Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange closed at 628.8 yuan/t today, up by Yn7.6/t from yesterday. But the January contract closed at Yn614/t, down by Yn1/t.
Some Chinese traders kept offers of physical NAR 5,500 kcal/kg domestic coal at Yn630/t fob northern ports today. But a few lowered their offers to Yn625/, partially to compensate for increased storage fees at a key northern port and overall slower demand. Chinese utilities have slashed their bids to as low as Yn620/t fob, expecting overall prices to decline further.
China's major coal handling Caofeidian port in Hebei province in the north of the country today started to reapply charges for the storage of coal if the product remains at the facility for more than 20 days. This could encourage smaller traders to sell coal they have stockpiled at the port more promptly, which could in turn put pressure on prices.
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India’s Adani Power raises imported coal use in Jan-Mar
India’s Adani Power raises imported coal use in Jan-Mar
Singapore, 6 May (Argus) — India's leading private sector utility Adani Power more than doubled its use of imported thermal coal during January-March and in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year to meet rising power demand. The Bombay Stock Exchange-listed firm used 5.19mn t of imported coal over January-March, more than twice that of 1.99mn t a year earlier. Domestic coal burn also rose by nearly 18pc on the year to 8.83mn t during January-March, following higher availability of local fuel and increased dispatches to utilities. Adani Power consumed 19.44mn t of imported coal over India's April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year. This was also more than double that of 7.66mn t in 2022-23. Its domestic coal burn increased by 10pc on the year to 31.72mn t in 2023-24. Higher imports came on the back of a sharp drop in seaborne prices. The Argus -assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal averaged $57.88/t fob Kalimantan over April 2023-March 2024, down by over 31pc from an average of $84.45/t in the year earlier. The company's fuel cost stood at 3.33 rupees/kWh sold (0.04¢/kWh sold) in January-March, down from Rs5.30/kWh sold a year earlier because of lower blended fuel costs, following a decline in seaborne coal prices. Fuel cost for 2023-24 stood at Rs3.59/kWh compared with Rs4.78/kWh in the previous year. Lower imported coal prices also boosted power offtake under imported coal-based power purchase agreements. The company sold 22.13bn units of electricity in January-March, up significantly from 14.25bn units sold a year earlier. It sold 79.27bn units in 2023-24, up from 53.39bn units in the year earlier. Higher volumes during January-March and the fiscal year were driven by its Mundra, Udupi, Raipur, and Mahan plants — apart from the incremental contribution of the Godda unit — which were commissioned in April 2023. Domestic power sales volumes were driven by growing power demand across the country, the company said. Utility demand could continue to support imports by utilities and lift overall Indian demand for seaborne coal. India imported 14.27mn t of thermal coal in March, up by 8pc from 13.2mn t a year earlier, according to shipping broker Interocean data. Thermal power expansion plans Adani Power operates 15.25GW of thermal generation capacity in the Gujarat and Maharashtra states of west India, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in central India, Rajasthan in north India, Karnataka in south India and Jharkhand in eastern India. The firm is eyeing a capacity of more than 24GW by 2029. It is undertaking a brownfield thermal capacity expansion of 1.6GW at its 1.2GW Mahan power project in Madhya Pradesh. It has started developing a 1.6GW expansion at its existing 600MW unit in Chhattisgarh. Adani Power has also emerged as the frontrunner to acquire thermal generation capacity and an under-construction project from domestic debt-ridden Lanco Amarkantak Power. Lanco owned and operated a 600MW thermal power plant in central India's Chhattisgarh state and was planning 1.32GW of generating capacity under the second phase of the project. Adani is in the process of acquiring a 1.2GW debt-ridden thermal power project in south India's Tamil Nadu state. Plant operator Coastal Energen is also having a corporate resolution insolvency process. It is evaluating an organic expansion of 1.6GW, besides considering other inorganic acquisition opportunities, to meet strong demand for thermal power in the coming years, the company said. By Ajay Modi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Corrects movement of grain loadings from a year earlier in final paragraph. Washington, 2 May (Argus) — Workers at the two major Canadian railroads could go on strike as soon as 22 May now that members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) have authorized a strike, potentially causing widespread disruption to shipments of commodities such as crude, coal and grain. A strike could disrupt rail traffic not only in Canada but also in the US and Mexico because trains would not be able to leave, nor could shipments enter into Canada. This labor action could be far more impactful than recent strikes because it would affect Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) at the same time. Union members at Canadian railroads have gone on strike individually in the past, which has left one of the two carriers to continue operating and handle some of their competitor's freight. But TCRC members completed a vote yesterday about whether to initiate a strike action at each carrier. The union represents about 9,300 workers employed at the two railroads. Roughly 98pc of union members that participated voted in favor of a strike beginning as early as 22 May, the union said. The union said talks are at an impasse. "After six months of negotiations with both companies, we are no closer to reaching a settlement than when we first began, TCRC president Paul Boucher said. Boucher warned that "a simultaneous work stoppage at both CN and CPKC would disrupt supply chains on a scale Canada has likely never experienced." He added that the union does not want to provoke a rail crisis and wants to avoid a work stoppage. The union has argued that the railroads' proposals would harm safety practices. It has also sought an improved work-life balance. But CN and CPKC said the union continues to reject their proposals. CPKC "is committed to negotiating in good faith and responding to our employees' desire for higher pay and improved work-life balance, while respecting the best interests of all our railroaders, their families, our customers, and the North American economy." CN said it wants a contract that addresses the work life balance and productivity, benefiting the company and employees. But even when CN "proposed a solution that would not touch duty-rest rules, the union has rejected it," the railroad said. Canadian commodity volume has fallen this year with only rail shipments of chemicals, petroleum and petroleum products, and non-metallic minerals rising, Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show. Volume data includes cars loaded in the US by Canadian carriers. Coal traffic dropped by 11pc during the 17 weeks ended on 27 April compared with a year earlier, AAR data show. Loadings of motor vehicles and parts have fallen by 5.2pc. CN and CPKC grain loadings fell by 4.3pc from a year earlier, while shipment of farm products and food fell by 9.3pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan's trading firms see metals prices cutting profits
Japan's trading firms see metals prices cutting profits
Tokyo, 2 May (Argus) — Major Japanese trading houses are expecting lower profits from their metals businesses during the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year, mostly because of lower prices of commodities such as iron ore and coking coal . Japanese trading house Mitsui forecast profits for its metal and natural resource business falling by 14pc on the year to ¥290bn ($1.87bn) during 2024-25, primarily because of lower iron ore prices. Mitsui plans to cut iron ore output by 0.3pc on the year to 60.9mn t at its mining projects where the company owns production ri ghts or a production stake during 2024-25 . This includes the joint venture project Robe River in Australia with Australian iron ore producer Rio Tinto. Japanese trading house Sojitz also expects profits from its metal and natural resource business to decline to ¥35bn, down by 20pc on the year, mostly because of a bearish coking coal market. The company said its overall coal business can cut production costs during 2024-25, partly because it plans larger-scale output at the Gregory Crinum coking coal mine in Australia, without disclosing further details. But Sojitz said it cannot generate higher profits because of lower coking coal prices. The trading house expects the average coking coal price to fall to $230/t during 2024-25, according to the company's chief financial officer Makoto Shibuya, down by $57/t from a year earlier. The company reiterated that the price is not necessarily their selling price. Sumitomo expects profits from its natural resource business would remain flat at ¥72bn on the year, mostly as its nickel production in Madagascar recovers from the output cuts in 2023 , with an aim to produce 19,000t of nickel during 2024-25, up by 9.8pc on the year. A rebound in nickel production could offset possible losses from coal and coking coal prices falling to $266/t and $133/t respectively in the ordinary market, down by $21 and $9, according to the trading house. Sumitomo plans to increase coking coal production by 9.1pc to 1.2mn t but reduce coal output by 4.8pc to 4mn t during 2024-25. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual
US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual
Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Southbound barge rates in the US have fallen on unseasonably low demand because of increased competition in the international grain market. Rates for voyages down river have deteriorated to "unsustainable" levels, said American Commercial Barge Line. Southbound rates declined in April to an average tariff of 284pc across all rivers this April, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is below breakeven levels for many barge carriers. Rates typically do not fall below a 300pc tariff until May or June. Southbound freight values for May are expected to hold steady or move lower, said sources this week. Southbound activity has increased recently because of the low rates, but not enough to push prices up. The US has already sold 84pc of its forecast corn exports and 89pc of forecast soybean exports with only five months left until the end of the corn and soybean marketing year, according to the USDA. US corn and soybean prices have come down since the beginning of the year in order to stay competitive with other origins. The USDA lowered its forecast for US soybean exports by 545,000t in its April report as soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were more competitively priced. US farmers are holding onto more of their harvest from last year because of low crop prices, curbing exports. Prompt CBOT corn futures averaged $435/bushel in April, down 34pc from April 2023. Weak southbound demand could last until fall when the US enters harvest season and exports ramp up southbound barge demand. Major agriculture-producing countries such as Argentina and Brazil are expected to export their grain harvest before the US. Brazil has finished planting corn on time . unlike last year. The US may face less competition from Brazil in the fall as a result. Carriers are tying up barges earlier than usual to avoid losses on southbound barge voyages. Carriers that have already parked their barges will take their time re-entering the market unless tariffs become profitable again. The carriers who remain on the river will gain more southbound market share and possibly more northbound spot interest. By Meghan Yoyotte and Eduardo Gonzalez Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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