Venezuela aid effort underway: Update

Adds Curacao reference, details on aid campaign.

Venezuela´s emerging interim government and its Western supporters are aiming to deliver humanitarian aid this week before US oil sanctions start to exacerbate shortages of food, medicine and fuel in the Opec country.

Late last week there were already signs of panic buying of gasoline as state-owned PdV, the Venezuelan oil company targeted by the new US sanctions, cut fuel distribution to ration dwindling supply. Venezuela relies on imports for nearly all of its fuel supply because PdV´s refineries are mostly inoperable.

The sanctions announced by the US government on 28 January effectively cut off the revenue that Venezuela was generating from up to 500,000 b/d of crude exports to the US. While Venezuela exports crude to other markets, mainly China and India, much of that supply goes toward servicing debt.

Without this cash revenue from the US oil market, Venezuela´s economic crisis will deepen in a matter of weeks, so the race is on for proponents of a political transition to get aid into the country as swiftly as possible.

The sanctions are intended to force sitting president Nicolas Maduro to cede power in favor of Juan Guaidó, the National Assembly speaker who is now recognized by most of the western hemisphere and EU countries as Venezuela´s legitimate interim president. So far Maduro is defiant, vowing to fight what he deems is a coup attempt and an imminent US military invasion. Maduro is supported by Russia, China, Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia.

US President Donald Trump has said military action is an option. Colombia, a close US ally, has denied that military intervention in Venezuela is underfoot, but it has said that any measures would be taken in concert with neighboring countries.

Guaidó said late last week that desperately needed food and medicine will be gathered in Colombia, Brazil and a nearby Caribbean island, which sources in the islands tell Argus is likely to be Curacao. Among the groups that will provide aid and logistical support behind the scenes is the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which already has a sizable presence in Colombia mainly to support agricultural programs. The agency said it is prepared to provide aid such as Ready-to-Use Supplementary Foods (RUSF) for malnourished children. The International Committee of the Red Cross is also expected to participate.

But Guaidó and his supporters acknowledge that getting such aid into Venezuela hinges on persuading Venezuela´s national guard that controls the nation´s borders to switch allegiance away from Maduro. So far this has not happened, despite some mid-level military defections in recent days.

Speaking to reporters in Caracas today, Guaidó said a first stage of the aid campaign will focus on 250,000-300,000 Venezuelans whose lives are at risk, and reiterated a call on the armed forces to support the effort: "I appeal once more to your conscience. This help is to save lives."

He said there is a risk that the aid could be stolen or redirected into the Maduro government´s distribution chain to its political supporters.

At the frontlines of the humanitarian campaign is Colombia, whose lengthy porous border with Venezuela is a hotbed of smuggling, illicit drugs and arms trafficking and other criminal activity.

Colombian defense minister Guillermo Botero said this morning that aid would be channeled into Venezuela this week through the Colombian border city of Cucutá, the main crossing point between the two countries.

"Toward the end of this week, we believe we will be in a condition to provide humanitarian aid in the city of Cucuta …. this will be an intervention of the national police," Botero said.

Botero spoke at a press conference to announce the military´s success in killing a leading Colombian insurgent, alias Rodrigo Cadete, who had ties to Venezuela where Colombian criminal groups regularly take refuge.

Getting the humanitarian aid to Cucutá is one thing, getting it across the border is another, all parties agree. "One way to take on Maduro is to try to force in the aid, and let them block it in full view of the world," one western diplomat said.

The humanitarian aid campaign topped the agenda at a meeting of the Lima Group today in Ottawa. The group is comprised of 13 Latin American countries plus Canada. In a statement issued at the end of today´s meeting, the group urged Venezuela´s armed forces to recognize Guaidó and cooperate in the aid effort.

The Lima Group and the US are pushing back against proposals for dialogue espoused by Mexico and Uruguay, with some backing by the EU. Uruguay and the EU will jointly host a meeting in Montevideo on 7 February focused on ways to resolve the Venezuelan crisis through peaceful means. Critics in the Lima Group say multiple past efforts at dialogue have been exploited by Maduro to deepen his hold on power and are urging quick action.

Colombia and other neighboring countries are bracing for a further wave of Venezuelan refugees should the crisis there intensify. An estimated 2mn have fled into Colombia in recent years, with another 2mn spread across the region.