Missteps rattling Venezuelan opposition

The Venezuelan government of President Nicolas Maduro is exploiting repeated missteps by his political rivals in a carefully orchestrated bid to dilute international support for regime change.

The government's moves to discredit opposition leader Juan Guaido and his associates come on the eve of the annual UN General Assembly meeting in New York that Maduro has said he will not attend, a decision his critics say stems from fear of a coup should he abandon Venezuelan territory.

The UN, which still recognizes Maduro as president, will form the backdrop of consultations among Latin American officials from countries that voted this week at the Organization of American States (OAS) to invoke the controversial Cold War-era Rio Treaty of mutual defense, which opposition hardliners hope will bring about coordinated military action to oust Maduro.

But Washington and most Latin American countries remain cool toward the use of force in Venezuela. After firing his hawkish national security adviser John Bolton this week, US president Donald Trump said he is "very tough" on Venezuela and its ally Cuba, and pledged to to keep economic sanctions in place.

But Colombia has been steadily building a case for action should Caracas pose a direct threat. Maduro's open embrace of Colombian insurgents has raised alarm bells in Bogota.

The post-Bolton scenario may have further emboldened Maduro to target Guaido more aggressively. Popular support for Guaido, who heads the opposition-controlled National Assembly and is recognized as Venezuela's interim president by more than 50 countries, has waned in recent months. Inside and outside the country, Venezuelans are starting to doubt his ability to remove Maduro, establish a transition government, hold free elections and revitalize the oil-based economy. And now he is increasingly distracted with fending off government maneuvers to portray him as a traitor and criminal associate.

Stranger danger

In the latest incident, the government is accusing Guaido of conspiring with fugitive Colombian criminals photographed at his side during his clandestine border crossing in February, on the eve of a failed opposition campaign to force humanitarian aid into Venezuela. Guaido says the men were among many strangers who sought to be photographed beside him during the perilous journey.

In a separate episode, Maduro accused Guaido of treason for allegedly offering to relinquish Venezuela's historical claim to the Essequibo region in neighboring Guyana in exchange for the UK's support for his self-declared presidency.

The incidents reflect poor communication and a lack of political experience, Guaido's supporters say. But they acknowledge the risk to his reputation as an earnest young leader unsullied by the dubious ties of other Venezuelan politicians.

The government already stripped Guaido of his parliamentary immunity in April, and today the attorney general's office opened a second investigation against him, this time for allegedly conspiring with Colombian paramilitaries. He was already seen as vulnerable to detention following the launch of a probe in the Essequibo affair.

The mainstream opposition parties that comprise Guaido's political base so far are standing behind him with an endorsement last week for his re-election as National Assembly leader for a second consecutive year starting in January. The move was meant to quash jockeying by smaller parties on the opposition fringe, including some that support an oil-for-food initiative deemed by the mainstream as accommodating to Maduro.

Behind the political volatility, technocrats in Guaido's shadow government are preparing to negotiate with institutional investors to refinance 2020 bonds issued by Venezuelan national oil company PdV, ahead of a more than $900mn principal and interest payment due next month. The bonds are secured by equity in PdV's US refining subsidiary Citgo.

Also on the horizon is the 27 October expiry of a sanctions waiver for Chevron, one of PdV's main oil partners.

The US administration continues internal deliberations on whether to renew the authorization for Chevron to carry on operating in Venezuela, US energy secretary Rick Perry said today.